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UPDATE: Curve Continues To Flatten - Just As Mashmont Predicted.

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Mashmont

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Guys, recall a couple of days ago, the president ignited the stock market by proclaiming America would be open for business Easter week. Looks like the great man's optimism worked. DJIA has risen 3000 points in three days!! Now the libs have to give him credit for this giant boost since they did the same for 0bummer in 2009 when the market went up after he tanked it.

The president's optimism is borne out by the current trend which, for eight days running, saw the 3-day rolling average increse DROP yet again. Mashmont is still sticking with the view the curve will be going downhill Easter week as the president proclaims. Recall, I was the only scientist saying this a few days ago. Now others have joined in. The differs sharply from the leftwing 'scientists' saying this current cycle could go through mid-to-late summer (absurd!)

I am now getting my past numbers from infection2020.com. Here are the numbers, and here are the predictions for the next three days in red: Let's see how we do.

Mar 16-19 4727 14332 312% increase
Mar 17-20 6507 19762 304% increase
Mar 18-21 9421 26881 285% increase
Mar 19-22 14332 35226 245% increase
Mar 20-23 19762 46455 218% increase
Mar 21-24 26881 55225 205% increase
Mar 22-25 35226 69222 196% increase
Mar 23-26 46455 86043 185% increase
Mar 24-27 55225 96643 175% increase
Mar 25-28 69222 114909 166% increase
Mar 26-29 86043 134227 156% increase
 
So for argument's sake, let's say these numbers are real. Trump spent months pretending this was no big deal and refused to take the measures necessary to prevent the spread early like SK. He then suggested a quarantine, like every other country on earth had already done at that point, and now as the scientists predicted it was completely justified to do so and the infection rate is decreasing. Now, while infections are still increasing by 185%, Trump wants to preemptively stop the quarantine way too early.

I find it totally bizarre that Trump and his supporters had to be dragged kicking and screaming into a quarantine where they called it totally unnecessary and not worth the gain, and now they turn around and pretend it was their idea and Trump deserves the credit.

You're a wildly dishonest person and once again, your celebrations are catastrophically premature.

Mashmont said:
Recall, I was the only scientist saying this a few days ago. Now others have joined in.
Click to expand...

Ffs, don't call yourself a scientist and don't pretend this was your idea that the real scientists are now "catching onto".
 
Last edited:
Mashmont said:
Guys, recall a couple of days ago, the president ignited the stock market by proclaiming America would be open for business Easter week. Looks like the great man's optimism worked. DJIA has risen 3000 points in three days!! Now the libs have to give him credit for this giant boost since they did the same for 0bummer in 2009 when the market went up after he tanked it.

The president's optimism is borne out by the current trend which, for eight days running, saw the 3-day rolling average increse DROP yet again. Mashmont is still sticking with the view the curve will be going downhill Easter week as the president proclaims. Recall, I was the only scientist saying this a few days ago. Now others have joined in. The differs sharply from the leftwing 'scientists' saying this current cycle could go through mid-to-late summer (absurd!)

I am now getting my past numbers from infection2020.com. Here are the numbers, and here are the predictions for the next three days in red: Let's see how we do.

Mar 16-19 4727 14332 312% increase
Mar 17-20 6507 19762 304% increase
Mar 18-21 9421 26881 285% increase
Mar 19-22 14332 35226 245% increase
Mar 20-23 19762 46455 218% increase
Mar 21-24 26881 55225 205% increase
Mar 22-25 35226 69222 196% increase
Mar 23-26 46455 86043 185% increase
Mar 24-27 55225 96643 175% increase
Mar 25-28 69222 114909 166% increase
Mar 26-29 86043 134227 156% increase
Click to expand...

Having 80% of the US infected by easter weekend is not a good thing
 
Mashmont said:
Guys, recall a couple of days ago, the president ignited the stock market by proclaiming America would be open for business Easter week. Looks like the great man's optimism worked. DJIA has risen 3000 points in three days!! Now the libs have to give him credit for this giant boost since they did the same for 0bummer in 2009 when the market went up after he tanked it.

The president's optimism is borne out by the current trend which, for eight days running, saw the 3-day rolling average increse DROP yet again. Mashmont is still sticking with the view the curve will be going downhill Easter week as the president proclaims. Recall, I was the only scientist saying this a few days ago. Now others have joined in. The differs sharply from the leftwing 'scientists' saying this current cycle could go through mid-to-late summer (absurd!)

I am now getting my past numbers from infection2020.com. Here are the numbers, and here are the predictions for the next three days in red: Let's see how we do.

Mar 16-19 4727 14332 312% increase
Mar 17-20 6507 19762 304% increase
Mar 18-21 9421 26881 285% increase
Mar 19-22 14332 35226 245% increase
Mar 20-23 19762 46455 218% increase
Mar 21-24 26881 55225 205% increase
Mar 22-25 35226 69222 196% increase
Mar 23-26 46455 86043 185% increase
Mar 24-27 55225 96643 175% increase
Mar 25-28 69222 114909 166% increase
Mar 26-29 86043 134227 156% increase
Click to expand...

You're a self described "scientist" who doesn't learn. The idea of flattening an epidemic's curve by the percentage decline in infections is simply stupid. This is explained in your mirror thread but the explanation of course didn't sink in. One look at your numbers, going from 4,727 to 96,643 in less than two weeks, is not quite the good news you think it is.
 
Last edited:
Crovax said:
Having 80% of the US infected by easter weekend is not a good thing
Click to expand...

What makes you think we'll go from 86,043 infected to 260,000,000 in two weeks?
 
JackA said:
You're a self described "scientist" who doesn't learn. The idea of flattening an epidemic's curve by the percentage decline in infections is simply stupid. This is explained in your mirror thread but the explanation of course didn't sink in. One look at your numbers, going from 4,727 to 96,643 in less than two weeks, is not quite the good news you think it is.
Click to expand...

Remember that when that percent gets to zero, we're on the way down the curve. Thank God for that!
 
There exist no means, not even method of gathering of menaingful numbers at that point of time.

The data is quite complex because of:
- local gathering of numbers under complete different circumstances and capacities
- incubation time
- absence of symptoms in a big part of infected
- absent capacity of health care to gather data
- much to limited access to tests and testing capacity
- need to integrate and interpret data to get a meaningful model of reality
- absence of knowledge of valid data about virus e.g. percentage of deaths in an individual population
- etc.
- etc.
- etc.

One can say, that a highly contagious virus is spreading US wide and world wide. That it has great impact on health care. That anyone who thought it over and was confronted started practizing social isolation to slow down this surge.

This is no time to interpret data details. It is the time to take immediate action and the start gathering data. And try to find out what is even going on in this epidemic. Because very, very little is known.
 
Mashmont said:
Guys, recall a couple of days ago, the president ignited the stock market by proclaiming America would be open for business Easter week. Looks like the great man's optimism worked. DJIA has risen 3000 points in three days!! Now the libs have to give him credit for this giant boost since they did the same for 0bummer in 2009 when the market went up after he tanked it.

The president's optimism is borne out by the current trend which, for eight days running, saw the 3-day rolling average increse DROP yet again. Mashmont is still sticking with the view the curve will be going downhill Easter week as the president proclaims. Recall, I was the only scientist saying this a few days ago. Now others have joined in. The differs sharply from the leftwing 'scientists' saying this current cycle could go through mid-to-late summer (absurd!)

I am now getting my past numbers from infection2020.com. Here are the numbers, and here are the predictions for the next three days in red: Let's see how we do.

Mar 16-19 4727 14332 312% increase
Mar 17-20 6507 19762 304% increase
Mar 18-21 9421 26881 285% increase
Mar 19-22 14332 35226 245% increase
Mar 20-23 19762 46455 218% increase
Mar 21-24 26881 55225 205% increase
Mar 22-25 35226 69222 196% increase
Mar 23-26 46455 86043 185% increase
Mar 24-27 55225 96643 175% increase
Mar 25-28 69222 114909 166% increase
Mar 26-29 86043 134227 156% increase
Click to expand...

Well, maybe we can put off on us going another 2 trillion in the hole then?
 
What about the curve for TDS? :2razz:
 
Mycroft said:
What makes you think we'll go from 86,043 infected to 260,000,000 in two weeks?
Click to expand...

Every day the number of cases has gone up by 25% or more and that’s with the quarantine procedures in place. We won’t quite be there by easter weekend but if everyone goes out on easter weekend by 2 weeks after essentially everyone who can get infected will have
 
Yes, the curve will flatten but far less quickly if Trump insists that America 'go back to work' on Easter.
 
RabidAlpaca said:
So for argument's sake, let's say these numbers are real. Trump spent months pretending this was no big deal and refused to take the measures necessary to prevent the spread early like SK. He then suggested a quarantine, like every other country on earth had already done at that point, and now as the scientists predicted it was completely justified to do so and the infection rate is decreasing. Now, while infections are still increasing by 185%, Trump wants to preemptively stop the quarantine way too early.

I find it totally bizarre that Trump and his supporters had to be dragged kicking and screaming into a quarantine where they called it totally unnecessary and not worth the gain, and now they turn around and pretend it was their idea and Trump deserves the credit.

You're a wildly dishonest person and once again, your celebrations are catastrophically premature.



Ffs, don't call yourself a scientist and don't pretend this was your idea that the real scientists are now "catching onto".
Click to expand...

Trump was right on this early on back in January when he banned travel from China. He has moved very forcefully since, although he, like all of us, disliked the media's armageddon-like scenarios which unnecessarily panicked people and tanked the stock market. Trump has righted the ship, handled the details like the CEO his is, and made people optimistic again. I would call it a perfect job of leadership. As probably the first scientist to predict this early fizzling of the virus, I am proud to be in Trump's camp.
 
RUSH LIMBAUGH: "Folks, this coronavirus thing, I want to try to put this in perspective for you. It looks like the coronavirus is being weaponized as yet another element to bring down Donald Trump. Now, I want to tell you the truth about the coronavirus. (interruption) You think I’m wrong about this? You think I’m missing it by saying that’s … (interruption) Yeah, I’m dead right on this. The coronavirus is the common cold, folks."
 
Let's be clear...the curve has not flattened according to the CDC.


Anyone can post any idiotic thing they want on here....but I get my information from the CDC
 
Michael Cole said:
Good job Mr. President!
Click to expand...

This is my favorite type of post. People congratulating the Prez for doing something about something that was nothing.

Classic.
 
Mashmont said:
Trump was right on this early on back in January when he banned travel from China. He has moved very forcefully since, although he, like all of us, disliked the media's armageddon-like scenarios which unnecessarily panicked people and tanked the stock market. Trump has righted the ship, handled the details like the CEO his is, and made people optimistic again. I would call it a perfect job of leadership. As probably the first scientist to predict this early fizzling of the virus, I am proud to be in Trump's camp.
Click to expand...

So states should start cancelling orders for ventilators?
 
marke said:
We are likely to see the assumed need for more ventilators taper off in the near future.
Click to expand...

So they should cancel the orders?
 
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