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Thread: UPDATE: Curve Continues To Flatten - Just As Mashmont Predicted.

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    Re: UPDATE: Curve Continues To Flatten - Just As Mashmont Predicted.

    Quote Originally Posted by MrWonka View Post
    LOL!!! This still puts us well to the left of the peak of the curve dude. Increasing at a decreasing rate puts us maybe at best 25% of the way through the curve. So if that took two weeks Easter is when we're going to be at the peak of the curve.
    Yep. If that's the case, that could mean the US will settle in at 200,000 or more new cases per day, until the rate really starts to drop.

    And there's a very good chance it won't drop right away. Italy has had its restrictions in place for a few weeks, and it's stuck at 5000+ new cases per day.
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    Re: UPDATE: Curve Continues To Flatten - Just As Mashmont Predicted.

    Quote Originally Posted by Visbek View Post
    I know no one needs to see it but.... Yeah, I'm seriously bored and seriously procrastinating.

    Mashmont explained earlier in this thread that what he's doing is merely dividing the new value by the old value, and then multiplying the result to get a "percentage increase." To make his "predictions," it looks like what he's doing is multiplying a 4-day old value by an arbitrarily reduced "percentage."

    Needless to say, this model produces some... issues.

    Here's his 3/25 "prediction," and presumably why he thought there would be no more than 130,000 cases:

    Attachment 67276606


    And his "fixed" "prediction:"

    Attachment 67276605

    The most obvious flaw of this method is that after a few days, it suggests that the total number of cases will actually drop. (This is indicated in bold.) Obviously, that's not possible.

    The next issue is that after a few days, his predictions become ludicrously inaccurate. To wit: So far, cases are doubling roughly every 2.5 - 3 days. If that keeps up (which is likely,) then his prediction will be off by 330,000 cases. As a result, and I'm sure this will surprise no one, he will "fix" his predictions day after day, thus trying to hide the massive long-term inaccuracies.

    It's really fascinating what happens when a total lack of math skills collides with wishful thinking, yes?
    I was thinking of opening a thread called "CV-19 Fun With Numbers". But this thread will do.

    I didn't bother to see how MM obtained his numbers or examine his calculation methodology. However, I did use his actual posted numbers fitted to a logarithmic trend line. I used two trends (which should be mirror images of each other) to calculate when the peak values will be reached AND what the total cases would be.

    How "valid" this number is I will leave for others to dispute, but I suspect there are too few actual data points and the trend line won't turn out to be logarithmic.

    It would seem that the trend line for 100 days maxs out at 140K - pretty close to his calculations.



    COVID Mashmont .jpg

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    Re: UPDATE: Curve Continues To Flatten - Just As Mashmont Predicted.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mashmont View Post
    0bama and his party CAUSED the recession. They don't get to use it as an excuse for their later failures.
    Really? How?

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    Re: UPDATE: Curve Continues To Flatten - Just As Mashmont Predicted.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mashmont View Post
    0bama and his party CAUSED the recession. They don't get to use it as an excuse for their later failures.
    January 20, 2009. Obama Inaugurated as President
    February 11, 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act became effective

    WOW. that is one short recession!!!!!

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    Re: UPDATE: Curve Continues To Flatten - Just As Mashmont Predicted.

    Quote Originally Posted by maxparrish View Post
    How "valid" this number is I will leave for others to dispute....
    lol... Okay then. His numbers aren't valid.

    His methodology is not based on actual percentage changes. All he's doing is multiplying past days, and this completely misses the exponential nature of the virus' growth.

    That's why he keeps blowing his predictions. E.g. he predicted 115,000 total cases today; it's not even 6PM Eastern Time, and he's already off by 5,000 cases. Tomorrow, he will likely be off by 10,000 cases; by Monday, 15,000....


    It would seem that the trend line for 100 days maxs out at 140K.
    Yes, and according to his "method," that will happen in about 1 week. To put it mildly, that's insane.
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    Re: UPDATE: Curve Continues To Flatten - Just As Mashmont Predicted.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mashmont View Post
    At least i have a college degree. You don't.
    You should ask for your money back.

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    Re: UPDATE: Curve Continues To Flatten - Just As Mashmont Predicted.

    Quote Originally Posted by weaver2 View Post
    You should ask for your money back.
    Said every uneducated person ever.

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    Re: UPDATE: Curve Continues To Flatten - Just As Mashmont Predicted.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mashmont View Post
    . ....... the current trend which, for eight days running, saw the 3-day rolling average increse DROP yet again. Mashmont is still sticking with the view the curve will be going downhill Easter week as the president proclaims. Recall, I was the only scientist saying this a few days ago. Now others have joined in. The differs sharply from the leftwing 'scientists' saying this current cycle could go through mid-to-late summer (absurd!)

    I am now getting my past numbers from infection2020.com. Here are the numbers, and here are the predictions for the next three days in red: Let's see how we do.

    Mar 16-19 4727 14332 312% increase
    Mar 17-20 6507 19762 304% increase
    Mar 18-21 9421 26881 285% increase
    Mar 19-22 14332 35226 245% increase
    Mar 20-23 19762 46455 218% increase
    Mar 21-24 26881 55225 205% increase
    Mar 22-25 35226 69222 196% increase
    Mar 23-26 46455 86043 185% increase
    Mar 24-27 55225 96643 175% increase
    Mar 25-28 69222 114909 166% increase
    Mar 26-29 86043 134227 156% increase
    Looks like you did say average increase. And it's spelled 'increase' not 'increse'.

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    Re: UPDATE: Curve Continues To Flatten - Just As Mashmont Predicted.

    Quote Originally Posted by Visbek View Post
    lol... Okay then. His numbers aren't valid.

    His methodology is not based on actual percentage changes. All he's doing is multiplying past days, and this completely misses the exponential nature of the virus' growth.

    That's why he keeps blowing his predictions. E.g. he predicted 115,000 total cases today; it's not even 6PM Eastern Time, and he's already off by 5,000 cases. Tomorrow, he will likely be off by 10,000 cases; by Monday, 15,000....

    Yes, and according to his "method," that will happen in about 1 week. To put it mildly, that's insane.
    Well, one can fit the same small dataset to an exponential chart as well. This might be called Visbek's Forecast Refutation Ö 40 days and nearly 4.5 million cases.

    COVID Mashmont Visbeck.jpg

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    Re: UPDATE: Curve Continues To Flatten - Just As Mashmont Predicted.

    Quote Originally Posted by weaver2 View Post
    You should ask for your money back.
    Didn't trump already refund the money from his fake "college"???

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