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Thread: Simple math: why COVID-19 will necessarily peak by April 21st in the US

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    Re: Simple math: why COVID-19 will necessarily peak by April 21st in the US

    Quote Originally Posted by NWRatCon View Post
    The smallest infection number I can imagine, though, is probably 250,000 - about where Europe is now - and somewhere around 5000 fatalities (and 30,000 hospital admissions). I just don't feel that optimistic.
    5,000 is VERY optimistic. I'm 100% sure that it will be WAY more than that. Like you, I wouldn't be that optimistic. Maybe the rate slowed down a bit in NYC but all things considered we continued to double the deaths every three days, and that won't stop at 5,000.

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    Re: Simple math: why COVID-19 will necessarily peak by April 21st in the US

    Quote Originally Posted by GreatNews2night View Post

    Well, it's the phenomenon of heard immunity. Once the virus infects everybody it could have infected, those who don't die, recover, and are hopefully relatively immune to it. It then runs out of new people to infect, and dies out.
    This is why smallpox died out 2000 years ago and we never had to make a vaccine for it.
    Watching the live action version of Jerry Pournelle's "Crazy Eddie" concept.

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    Re: Simple math: why COVID-19 will necessarily peak by April 21st in the US

    Quote Originally Posted by Hamish Howl View Post
    This is why smallpox died out 2000 years ago and we never had to make a vaccine for it.
    Yeah, thank God small pox just disappeared because of 'heard' immunity.
    Quote Originally Posted by cabse5 View Post
    Social distancing has nothing to do with preventing pandemic casualties.
    Quote Originally Posted by marke View Post
    Why try to prove things when science has never even tried to prove anything?
    RE: Italy's mortality rate
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    Perhaps it because their population is so old(their own doing)?

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    Re: Simple math: why COVID-19 will necessarily peak by April 21st in the US

    Quote Originally Posted by Hamish Howl View Post
    This is why smallpox died out 2000 years ago and we never had to make a vaccine for it.
    I'm fully aware that the virus may become endemic, mutate, and come back with a rage in the fall. I'm also fully aware that it may result in a protracted situation, not really going away, until an effective vaccine is found.

    It may be here permanently, like the seasonal flu.

    But it is also not impossible that it will die out. It all depends on whether or not it mutates, and whether or not people who catch it, develop lasting immunity.

    By the way, we have surpassed China in number of cases.

    By the way, I meant herd immunity, made a typo. It's a real phenomenon.
    Last edited by GreatNews2night; 03-26-20 at 08:39 PM.

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    Re: Simple math: why COVID-19 will necessarily peak by April 21st in the US

    Quote Originally Posted by Lursa View Post
    Yeah, thank God small pox just disappeared because of 'heard' immunity.
    Yeah, I've herd of immunity too!

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    Re: Simple math: why COVID-19 will necessarily peak by April 21st in the US

    Quote Originally Posted by GreatNews2night View Post
    5,000 is VERY optimistic. I'm 100% sure that it will be WAY more than that. Like you, I wouldn't be that optimistic. Maybe the rate slowed down a bit in NYC but all things considered we continued to double the deaths every three days, and that won't stop at 5,000.
    Yes, mathematically we will be having 5,000 dead per day by the first full week of April.
    Wash your dang hands.

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    Re: Simple math: why COVID-19 will necessarily peak by April 21st in the US

    Quote Originally Posted by Torus34 View Post
    Hi!

    Yup! You're absolutely right. The uncertainty is due to the labels we attach to the figures. Here's how the mischief occurs.

    The number of deaths caused by COVID-19 is a relatively solid figure. The nation-wide reporting system's quite good. The number of reported cases of COVID-19 positive people is also quite good. If we label the death rate we derive from them as 'The Death Rate as a Percent of Proven COVID-19 Infected People', it's also solid. You can almost take it to the bank.

    But --- and here's the switcheroo -- we can mentally change that rather specific label to 'The Death Rate We Can Expect For Those Who Catch the Virus'. And, of course, being somewhat imprecise human beings, we do just that. That label change brings all manner of other factors into the final number, many of which are known with minimal precision and accuracy.

    Regards, and stay well.
    Nah, I never made this mistake. I'm perfectly aware that case-fatality raters are over-estimated in the first phases of an epidemic. That's why in my calculation I set it much lower, at 0.675 (which, sure, is a guess, but an educated guess, looking at places were testing was more extensive.

    Number of deaths, though, is reliable, which is why I based my model on it.

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    Re: Simple math: why COVID-19 will necessarily peak by April 21st in the US

    Quote Originally Posted by NWRatCon View Post
    Yeah, I've herd of immunity too!
    That was just a typo. I posted the correct term, herd immunity, in many other posts of mine.

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    Re: Simple math: why COVID-19 will necessarily peak by April 21st in the US

    Quote Originally Posted by Torus34 View Post
    As I've noted on other threads, we all have access each day to the same data for the US. That's the number of cases total and the number of deaths, total. These are available each morning. They are flawed, but they're what we have. Reasoned guesses as to the 'true' figures are just that. Whether the logic behind them will prove sound or not is something we won't know for many weeks or perhaps many months.

    We can extrapolate the existing data, but the number +/- spread becomes large as the line advances.

    Perhaps the best we can do is keep a running list and see what trends emerge. These trends can be easily upset by a single day's new data. As an example, the death rate, 2.0% on 3/18, has been constantly decreasing and appeared over the range of 3/22-5 to have settled at 1.2%. Today's data [68,500 cases, 928 deaths] sets it at 1.35%. Go figure!

    So we can record, watch, and wait. We can, and should, take what the pundits, politicians and papers say with all due caution.

    Maintain a safe intellectual distance from what you read and hear.

    What you read and hear can be carriers and infect you with false beliefs.
    Objection noted, but that's exactly what I've been doing: look at the data, and tracing averages. Yes, the absolute numbers go up and down a little but the overall curve continues to indicate the number of deaths at least doubling every three days. You can look it up here:

    United States Coronavirus: 85,268 Cases and 1,293 Deaths - Worldometer

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    Re: Simple math: why COVID-19 will necessarily peak by April 21st in the US

    Quote Originally Posted by MovingPictures View Post
    China's numbers are bull****.

    They are an authorization state that has covered up mass death before, so there is no reason to believe they really only lost 3200 people. Draconian measures or not, cities like Wuhan don't get infected in mass numbers and not lose skyrocket high numbers.
    It would still be pretty hard to cover up a large number of deaths today, even in China. I have spent a lot of time in China over the years, most people there know what is going on news wise regardless of the governments attempts at censorship. People talk there just like they do everywhere else, they keep tabs on family members and friends, and they share info via wechat. If the government starts to censor that, they just start speaking in code. If you had a huge number of Covid-19 deaths, there would still have to be an official cause of death, probably pneumonia, thus it would be pretty easy to show they were lying.

    As an authoritarian state with an effective government, they can lock down society and do contract tracing far better than we can. Moreover, most people that die of Covid-19 have 2 or more comorbidities. East Asians just don't have the number of cormidities that our seniors have. Obesity, type 2 diabetes, and chronic pulmonary issues are a fraction in China of what they are here.
    "You're the only person that decides how far you'll go and what you're capable of." - Ben Saunders (Explorer and Endurance Athlete)

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