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Stupidly having held Mardi Gras, New Orleans likely to be the next epicenter

GreatNews2night

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New Orleans emerges as next coronavirus epicenter, threatening rest of South

This is what happens when people keep minimizing the problem, sticking their heads in the sand, and saying that COVID-19 is just another flu, no big deal.

Before Mardi Gras, with enough signs of trouble brewing worldwide, I remember thinking, why in the hell won't New Orleans officials cancel the Mardi Gras celebrations this year? This is a recipe for disaster!

And now, we are starting to see the result of this stupidity.

Explosive outbreaks and their dire consequences are always delayed by several weeks. So we are starting to see now, the consequences of this boneheaded no-call.

This is why I'm absolutely for shelter-in-place orders. It's the only way to flatten the curve and break the contagion.

People say, "it doesn't work, see the numbers in Italy" - but their numbers of cases and dead people *now*, reflect infections contracted *BEFORE* they started the lockdown (and this will continue for a while because at first they didn't even enforce the lockdown seriously like they are doing now).

Between catching the virus and dying, several weeks go by.

Wait for the wave silently started BEFORE the lockdown to die out one way or the other (with people either recovering or dying), and THEN you'll see the efficacy of Italy's lockdown.

We are ALREADY talking of easing up our restrictions, although we didn't even go into complete, nation-wide lockdown.

We will pay a huge price for not taking bold action.

Currently our number of dead is consistently going up by a factor of 2.5 every 3 days. Very consistently. Do the math and see what is ahead in the horizon for us. As of now, when I type this, we are at 1,032 deaths. Keep multiplying this by 2.5 every 3 days, then multiply the result by 2.5 again 3 days later, and so on, and see where we'll rapidly be in 2 and 3 weeks.

Let me show you what this calculation yields:

3/29 = 2,580
4/1 = 6,450
4/4 = 16,125
4/7 = 40,312
4/10 = 100,781
4/13 = 251,953
4/16 = 629,882
4/19 = 1,574,707
4/21 = 3,936,767

Do I think we'll get to almost 4 million dead on 4/21? No. That would be more than 1% of the population and would suppose a more than 1% case-fatality rate with 100% of the population infected, and the real rate, accounting for non-diagnosed cases, is likely to be a bit smaller than that. Also, the virus will likely not get to a full 100% of the population.

So, no, the curve will have to slow down at some point, likely before we reach this number on 4/21, which should be the limit, because if it keeps progressing like this, the virus will run out of new people to infect, in the effect called herd immunity.

And also, the places that did implement stay home orders will slow down the overall progression.

Maybe some effective treatment will be found in the meantime, to decrease infectious potential (which is currently about a R0 - the number that shows how many other people an infected person infects - of 2.5 too, estimated to be spread over, guess what, 3 days).

Maybe the warm weather will help. While the virus is spreading in tropical climates and in places where it is summer, so we can't really count on it disappearing in the summer, it seems to spread in hot areas at a milder rate than in the wintry northern hemisphere.

But the importance of flattening this curve, is to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system.

Remember, not only the fatality rate will go up if hospitals run out of capacity for ICU beds and ventilators, but other untreated medical/surgical conditions in other age groups including the very young, will start leading to death as well - where do you put the young child with a severe asthma attack that is deteriorating and needs a ventilator, if all ventilators are taken by COVID-19 patients? How do you perform surgery with general anesthesia (which needs a ventilator) if all ventilators are taken? Where do you put the heart attacks, and the trauma patients from car crashes? And so on and so forth, not to forget that healthcare workers running out of PPE catch the virus too therefore drop out of the healthcare workforce.

No, my friends. We need to lock down the country even more before this situation becomes too serious to handle. And it's no time to start easing up the restrictions, yet.
 
s a recipe for disaster!

And now, we are starting to see the result of this stupidity.

Explosive outbreaks and their dire consequences are always delayed by several weeks. So we are starting to see now, the consequences of this boneheaded no-call.

This is why I'm absolutely for shelter-in-place orders. It's the only way to flatten the curve and break the contagion.

People say, "it doesn't work, see the numbers in Italy" - but their numbers of cases and dead people *now*, reflect infections contracted *BEFORE* they started the lockdown (and this will continue for a while because at first they didn't even enforce the lockdown seriously like they are doing now).

Between catching the virus and dying, several weeks go by.

Wait for the wave silently started BEFORE the lockdown to die out one way or the other (with people either recovering or dying), and THEN you'll see the efficacy of Italy's lockdown.

We are ALREADY talking of easing up our restrictions, although we didn't even go into complete, nation-wide lockdown.

We will pay a huge price for not taking bold action.

Currently our number of dead is consistently going up by a factor of 2.5 every 3 days. Very consistently. Do the math and see what is ahead in the horizon for us. As of now, when I type this, we are at 1,032 deaths. Keep multiplying this by 2.5 every 3 days, then multiply the result by 2.5 again 3 days later, and so on, and see where we'll rapidly be in 2 and 3 weeks.

Let me show you what this calculation yields:

3/29 = 2,580
4/1 = 6,450
4/4 = 16,125
4/7 = 40,312
4/10 = 100,781
4/13 = 251,953
4/16 = 629,882
4/19 = 1,574,707
4/21 = 3,936,767

Do I think we'll get to almost 4 million dead on 4/21? No. That would be more than 1% of the population and would suppose a more than 1% case-fatality rate with 100% of the population infected, and the real rate, accounting for non-diagnosed cases, is likely to be a bit smaller than that. Also, the virus will likely not get to a full 100% of the population.

So, no, the curve will have to slow down at some point, likely before we reach this number on 4/21, which should be the limit, because if it keeps progressing like this, the virus will run out of new people to infect, in the effect called herd immunity.

And also, the places that did implement stay home orders will slow down the overall progression.

Maybe some effective treatment will be found in the meantime, to decrease infectious potential (which is currently about a R0 - the number that shows how many other people an infected person infects - of 2.5 too, estimated to be spread over, guess what, 3 days).

Maybe the warm weather will help. While the virus is spreading in tropical climates and in places where it is summer, so we can't really count on it disappearing in the summer, it seems to spread in hot areas at a milder rate than in the wintry northern hemisphere.

But the importance of flattening this curve, is to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system.

Remember, not only the fatality rate will go up if hospitals run out of capacity for ICU beds and ventilators, but other untreated medical/surgical conditions in other age groups including the very young, will start leading to death as well - where do you put the young child with a severe asthma attack that is deteriorating and needs a ventilator, if all ventilators are taken by COVID-19 patients? How do you perform surgery with general anesthesia (which needs a ventilator) if all ventilators are taken? Where do you put the heart attacks, and the trauma patients from car crashes? And so on and so forth, not to forget that healthcare workers running out of PPE catch the virus too therefore drop out of the healthcare workforce.

No, my friends. We need to lock down the country even more before this situation becomes too serious to handle. And it's no time to start easing up the restrictions, yet.


You also forgot that MANIAC Tony Spell who should be arrested:


[url]https://wgno.com/news/health/coronavirus/louisiana-church-hosts-more-than-1800-people-amid-covid-19-outbreak/
 
Yeah! Try cancelling Mardi Gras...lol.
 
Yeah! Try cancelling Mardi Gras...lol.

Yes, it's possible. Put the National Guard on the streets, make gatherings of more than 10 people without a justified reason illegal, impose a curfew, arrest anyone who doesn't comply. I guarantee that there would be no Mardi Gras under these measures which were all within the powers of Louisiana's governor.

It would have avoided lots of deaths. People would be mad... but then, as the disease progresses nationwide, they would understand. Let them celebrate Mardi Gras again once this is over.
 
That's what the national guard is for.

Yes, it's possible. Put the National Guard on the streets, make gatherings of more than 10 people without a justified reason illegal, impose a curfew, arrest anyone who doesn't comply. I guarantee that there would be no Mardi Gras under these measures which were all within the powers of Louisiana's governor.

It would have avoided lots of deaths. People would be mad... but then, as the disease progresses nationwide, they would understand. Let them celebrate Mardi Gras again once this is over.



Most of the National Gaurd was at Mardi Gras. :lamo
 
Most of the National Gaurd was at Mardi Gras. :lamo

Well, sure, if they weren't ordered to stop it. But with orders, they would have behaved professionally and would have enforced it.

Why in the hell do you think this is a laughing matter? People are dying, the economy is taking a big hit, and you are laughing out loud???
 
Well, sure, if they weren't ordered to stop it. But with orders, they would have behaved professionally and would have enforced it.

Why in the hell do you think this is a laughing matter? People are dying, the economy is taking a big hit, and you are laughing out loud???

Because it's always funny watching you people Monday morning quarterback everything. I'm waiting for you to blame Trump for not shutting down Mardi Gras.
 
Yeah! Try cancelling Mardi Gras...lol.

Marci Gras would have been cancelled if our president took this seriously early on.
 
Marci Gras would have been cancelled if our president took this seriously early on.

Yep! There it is! :lamo

I knew someone was going to blame it on Trump.
 
The mayor of New Orleans doesn't shoulder any responsibility?

Trump dismantled the pandemic response team which would have provided us information and preparation early on. Then he said that the 21 infected would get better and soon we would have 0 infected. This was about the same time as Mardi Gras. If the nation is not alerted to the seriousness of the pandemic, then they can only react to the information they have
 
Narrator:(apestd is asking this, of course, because she’s black.)

Would it matter is she was white? Would she shoulder any responsibility?

The governer is a white boy. Does he get any of the blame?

Or did you just want to play the race card?
 
Trump dismantled the pandemic response team which would have provided us information and preparation early on. Then he said that the 21 infected would get better and soon we would have 0 infected. This was about the same time as Mardi Gras. If the nation is not alerted to the seriousness of the pandemic, then they can only react to the information they have

How does that excuse the mayor and the governer from making what you believe was a critical decision to cancel Mardi Gras? Are they stupid?
 
How does that excuse the mayor and the governer from making what you believe was a critical decision to cancel Mardi Gras? Are they stupid?

Mardi Gras was in early February. How much information did any of us with the exception of the federal government have concerning the virus in early February. I was at a convention myself in late January. If I know what I know now, I would not have gone.
 
Mardi Gras was in early February. How much information did any of us with the exception of the federal government have concerning the virus in early February. I was at a convention myself in late January. If I know what I know now, I would not have gone.

Oh, so back then, no one really knew how dangerous Mardi Gras would turn out to be?
 
Oh, so back then, no one really knew how dangerous Mardi Gras would turn out to be?

No one except the federal government. And the feds could have known more if trump had not gotten rid of the pandemic response team
 
No one except the federal government. And the feds could have known more if trump had not gotten rid of the pandemic response team

They had Mardis Gras because they wanted to have Mardis Gras. Now, the "Orange man bad" blame game is starting.
 
Because it's always funny watching you people Monday morning quarterback everything. I'm waiting for you to blame Trump for not shutting down Mardi Gras.

Don't put words in my mouth. Did I say that? I said these powers sit within the umbrella of the state governor. Last I checked, Trump wasn't the governor of Louisiana.
 
No one except the federal government. And the feds could have known more if trump had not gotten rid of the pandemic response team

They had Mardis Gras because they wanted to have Mardis Gras. Now, the "Orange man bad" blame game is starting.
 
Mardi Gras was in early February. How much information did any of us with the exception of the federal government have concerning the virus in early February. I was at a convention myself in late January. If I know what I know now, I would not have gone.

This wasn't so hard to figure out. I figured it out and I'm not an elected governmental official. I remember thinking at the time "are these Brazilians crazy, they will carry on with Carnival as usual with millions of people on the streets and foreign tourists coming from all over, don't they know there is a pandemic brewing? They should cancel it. And that reminds me that their Carnival down south coincides with Mardi Gras in New Orleans; same issue, they should cancel that, too, or people will get infected and die."

Of course nobody cancelled anything, and now both Brazil and New Orleans are hot spots for the virus.
 
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