- Joined
- Mar 27, 2014
- Messages
- 63,632
- Reaction score
- 33,665
- Location
- Tennessee
- Gender
- Male
- Political Leaning
- Undisclosed
If ANY of you think you can name a country where covid-19 had killed even close to as many people as the annual flu season kills every year, name it. Justify the panic statistically.
OK, population of Ohio is roughly 12 million. A flu spread of 20% is 2.4 million. Their hospitals handle that pretty easily, because it's a recurring event, happens every year.
So far Ohio has diagnosed 704 cases, 182 of them (26%) has been hospitalized, and 75 of those admitted to the ICU (11%).
OK, assuming they've identified all the cases, that's 264,000 ICU admissions with a flu-like spread (2,400,000 X .11). There are only about 5,000 ICU beds in the entire state, and let's assume half of those are needed for NON CV19 cases - heart, lung, accidents, etc. so capacity for CV19 is 2,500, and that exceeds capacity by 106X.
To make the math most favorable to you, let's assume they've identified only 10% of actual cases, so the real cases so far are 7,040, and 75 ICU admissions is a rate of a little over 1%. That's 28,000 ICU admissions with a flu-like spread, which exceeds capacity by 11X.
But of course this is FAR more contagious than the flu, so there's no reason to expect a 20% spread - more like 50% or more without the measures we are seeing, which brings cases > capacity to 28X.
So in Ohio alone, for every ICU bed, that's just 27 people who need an ICU bed but can't get one because of CV19 cases, and who will likely die. In total, that's something like 67,000 ADDITIONAL dead for lack of capacity to treat them. In one state. That's a really, really bad year's worth of flu deaths in Ohio alone. Now do NY (pop 20 million), CA (40 million), TX (29 million).
And of course those are worst case and assume that all the cases come at once, which won't happen - hence - flatten the curve. So instead of those cases coming at once, they are spread out over months and we don't get 28X or 100X capacity demands, but something close to capacity. That is the reason for social distancing, etc.
You complain about the old people who aren't getting their medical needs met now, but completely ignore what happens WHEN CV19 overwhelms your local hospital and they have a young guy - 43 - with well controlled diabetes or something and CV19, and your 72 year old stroke victim or heart attack victim and 10 others who are old or with chronic illness - 12 or 13 in total, and there is ONE (1) BED. What in the hell do you think happens then? The old people you're worried about in other posts are told to suck it up and DIE because there is no other damn choice.
Last edited: