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Mashmont's Predictions: 130,000 Cases, 10,400 Deaths. Essentially Over by April 12. Mark It Down

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Mashmont

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Being the numbers wonk I am, I see the rate of increase is already dropping. March 20, cases were increasing threefold every three days. By March 25, tomorrow, the cases will double every three days. By April 1st, we'll have the same number of new cases every three days, and by April 6, the number of new cases will start to fall. By Easter week, the drop will be so precipitous, the danger will be be past, and the president will be spot on. I don't foresee more than 130,000 cases and 10,400 deaths. Pretty damn mild as viruses go, and considerably fewer than idiot Boy's H1N1 in 2009. Another excellent job by President Trump!

Note: Numbers are approximately 11:00pm edt, or about the time I go to bed.



March 16 -19 4661 to 14288 +307%
March 17-20 6492 to 19453 + 300%
March 18- 21 9337 to 26663 +286%
March 19-22 14288 to 35199 +246%
March 20- 23 19452 to 46337 + 233%
March 21 -24 26663 to 58569 + 220%
March 22-25 35199 to 70,398 + 200%
March 23-26 46337 to 83407 + 180%

Note: These predictions are so good, they needed their own thread, and I want them to be seen by all. You can take my predictions to the bank, people. But don't look for the Democrats or the media to allow this to wrap up so soon. As long as there are even a few thousand sick people, you will hear "But the virus could come back" or "Trump is saying it's over way too soon" or "Trump got bailed out by Democrat governors". All kinds of excuses to make people as scared for as long as they can. It's the only tool they feel they have to hurt Trump.

Isn't it ironic EVERY SINGLE TACTIC the left has come up with to harm him has fallen flat on its face? That's because God is protecting this great man.

" Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil: for thou art with me; thy rod and thy staff they comfort me. [5] Thou preparest a table before me in the presence of mine enemies: thou anointest my head with oil; my cup runneth over." --Psalm 23
 
My modeling indicates the flattening of the curve will begin about April 25 and we will be out of the woods by 15 May.

The second infestation will begin about a month later.
 
Will this nonsense stop anytime soon?
 
Mashmont said:
Being the numbers wonk I am, I see the rate of increase is already dropping. March 20, cases were increasing threefold every three days. By March 25, tomorrow, the cases will double every three days. By April 1st, we'll have the same number of new cases every three days, and by April 6, the number of new cases will start to fall. By Easter week, the drop will be so precipitous, the danger will be be past, and the president will be spot on. I don't foresee more than 130,000 cases and 10,400 deaths. Pretty damn mild as viruses go, and considerably fewer than idiot Boy's H1N1 in 2009. Another excellent job by President Trump!

Note: Numbers are approximately 11:00pm edt, or about the time I go to bed.



March 16 -19 4661 to 14288 +307%
March 17-20 6492 to 19453 + 300%
March 18- 21 9337 to 26663 +286%
March 19-22 14288 to 35199 +246%
March 20- 23 19452 to 46337 + 233%
March 21 -24 26663 to 58569 + 220%
March 22-25 35199 to 70,398 + 200%
March 23-26 46337 to 83407 + 180%

Note: These predictions are so good, they needed their own thread, and I want them to be seen by all. You can take my predictions to the bank, people. But don't look for the Democrats or the media to allow this to wrap up so soon. As long as there are even a few thousand sick people, you will hear "But the virus could come back" or "Trump is saying it's over way too soon" or "Trump got bailed out by Democrat governors". All kinds of excuses to make people as scared for as long as they can. It's the only tool they feel they have to hurt Trump.

Isn't it ironic EVERY SINGLE TACTIC the left has come up with to harm him has fallen flat on its face? That's because God is protecting this great man.

" Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil: for thou art with me; thy rod and thy staff they comfort me. [5] Thou preparest a table before me in the presence of mine enemies: thou anointest my head with oil; my cup runneth over." --Psalm 23
Click to expand...



Oh, and just being wonky for a moment, based on your numbers, we'll reach 89,286, which is more than China ever got, by Mar 26, and your 130,000 will be surpassed on Mar 29 with 148,896. UNLESS we test more people than we are doing now in which case it will be more.
 
Mashmont said:
Being the numbers wonk I am, I see the rate of increase is already dropping. March 20, cases were increasing threefold every three days. By March 25, tomorrow, the cases will double every three days. By April 1st, we'll have the same number of new cases every three days, and by April 6, the number of new cases will start to fall. By Easter week, the drop will be so precipitous, the danger will be be past, and the president will be spot on. I don't foresee more than 130,000 cases and 10,400 deaths. Pretty damn mild as viruses go, and considerably fewer than idiot Boy's H1N1 in 2009. Another excellent job by President Trump!

Note: Numbers are approximately 11:00pm edt, or about the time I go to bed.



March 16 -19 4661 to 14288 +307%
March 17-20 6492 to 19453 + 300%
March 18- 21 9337 to 26663 +286%
March 19-22 14288 to 35199 +246%
March 20- 23 19452 to 46337 + 233%
March 21 -24 26663 to 58569 + 220%
March 22-25 35199 to 70,398 + 200%
March 23-26 46337 to 83407 + 180%

Note: These predictions are so good, they needed their own thread, and I want them to be seen by all. You can take my predictions to the bank, people. But don't look for the Democrats or the media to allow this to wrap up so soon. As long as there are even a few thousand sick people, you will hear "But the virus could come back" or "Trump is saying it's over way too soon" or "Trump got bailed out by Democrat governors". All kinds of excuses to make people as scared for as long as they can. It's the only tool they feel they have to hurt Trump.

Isn't it ironic EVERY SINGLE TACTIC the left has come up with to harm him has fallen flat on its face? That's because God is protecting this great man.

" Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil: for thou art with me; thy rod and thy staff they comfort me. [5] Thou preparest a table before me in the presence of mine enemies: thou anointest my head with oil; my cup runneth over." --Psalm 23
Click to expand...

Not that I doubt your expertise in modeling, math and religion but will there be enough tests to keep up? Asking for a friend.
 
Mashmont said:
Being the numbers wonk I am, I see the rate of increase is already dropping. March 20, cases were increasing threefold every three days. By March 25, tomorrow, the cases will double every three days. By April 1st, we'll have the same number of new cases every three days, and by April 6, the number of new cases will start to fall. By Easter week, the drop will be so precipitous, the danger will be be past, and the president will be spot on. I don't foresee more than 130,000 cases and 10,400 deaths. Pretty damn mild as viruses go, and considerably fewer than idiot Boy's H1N1 in 2009. Another excellent job by President Trump!

Note: Numbers are approximately 11:00pm edt, or about the time I go to bed.



March 16 -19 4661 to 14288 +307%
March 17-20 6492 to 19453 + 300%
March 18- 21 9337 to 26663 +286%
March 19-22 14288 to 35199 +246%
March 20- 23 19452 to 46337 + 233%
March 21 -24 26663 to 58569 + 220%
March 22-25 35199 to 70,398 + 200%
March 23-26 46337 to 83407 + 180%

Note: These predictions are so good, they needed their own thread, and I want them to be seen by all. You can take my predictions to the bank, people. But don't look for the Democrats or the media to allow this to wrap up so soon. As long as there are even a few thousand sick people, you will hear "But the virus could come back" or "Trump is saying it's over way too soon" or "Trump got bailed out by Democrat governors". All kinds of excuses to make people as scared for as long as they can. It's the only tool they feel they have to hurt Trump.

Isn't it ironic EVERY SINGLE TACTIC the left has come up with to harm him has fallen flat on its face? That's because God is protecting this great man.

" Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil: for thou art with me; thy rod and thy staff they comfort me. [5] Thou preparest a table before me in the presence of mine enemies: thou anointest my head with oil; my cup runneth over." --Psalm 23
Click to expand...
What are you prepared to do if you are wrong? Some type of public humiliation?
 
bluesmoke said:
Oh, and just being wonky for a moment, based on your numbers, we'll reach 89,286, which is more than China ever got, by Mar 26, and your 130,000 will be surpassed on Mar 29 with 148,896. UNLESS we test more people than we are doing now in which case it will be more.
Click to expand...

Excuse us if we never believed china's numbers, and that so far, the CCP has proven themselves to be full of it
 
SLC said:
What are you prepared to do if you are wrong? Some type of public humiliation?
Click to expand...

He would not accept my bet when offered, meaning he does not really have the conviction in his beliefs he wants others to accept. One wonders if they are trying to convince others or themselves.
 
Mashmont said:
Being the numbers wonk I am, I see the rate of increase is already dropping. March 20, cases were increasing threefold every three days. By March 25, tomorrow, the cases will double every three days. By April 1st, we'll have the same number of new cases every three days, and by April 6, the number of new cases will start to fall. By Easter week, the drop will be so precipitous, the danger will be be past, and the president will be spot on. I don't foresee more than 130,000 cases and 10,400 deaths. Pretty damn mild as viruses go, and considerably fewer than idiot Boy's H1N1 in 2009. Another excellent job by President Trump!

Note: Numbers are approximately 11:00pm edt, or about the time I go to bed.



March 16 -19 4661 to 14288 +307%
March 17-20 6492 to 19453 + 300%
March 18- 21 9337 to 26663 +286%
March 19-22 14288 to 35199 +246%
March 20- 23 19452 to 46337 + 233%
March 21 -24 26663 to 58569 + 220%
March 22-25 35199 to 70,398 + 200%
March 23-26 46337 to 83407 + 180%

Note: These predictions are so good, they needed their own thread, and I want them to be seen by all. You can take my predictions to the bank, people. But don't look for the Democrats or the media to allow this to wrap up so soon. As long as there are even a few thousand sick people, you will hear "But the virus could come back" or "Trump is saying it's over way too soon" or "Trump got bailed out by Democrat governors". All kinds of excuses to make people as scared for as long as they can. It's the only tool they feel they have to hurt Trump.

Isn't it ironic EVERY SINGLE TACTIC the left has come up with to harm him has fallen flat on its face? That's because God is protecting this great man.

" Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil: for thou art with me; thy rod and thy staff they comfort me. [5] Thou preparest a table before me in the presence of mine enemies: thou anointest my head with oil; my cup runneth over." --Psalm 23
Click to expand...

Coronavirus Update (Live): 422,566 Cases and 18,887 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

USA Total Cases - 54,808 New Cases - +11,074 Total Deaths - 775 New Deaths - +222
 
Mashmont said:
Being the numbers wonk I am, I see the rate of increase is already dropping. March 20, cases were increasing threefold every three days. By March 25, tomorrow, the cases will double every three days. By April 1st, we'll have the same number of new cases every three days, and by April 6, the number of new cases will start to fall. By Easter week, the drop will be so precipitous, the danger will be be past, and the president will be spot on. I don't foresee more than 130,000 cases and 10,400 deaths. Pretty damn mild as viruses go, and considerably fewer than idiot Boy's H1N1 in 2009. Another excellent job by President Trump!

Note: Numbers are approximately 11:00pm edt, or about the time I go to bed.



March 16 -19 4661 to 14288 +307%
March 17-20 6492 to 19453 + 300%
March 18- 21 9337 to 26663 +286%
March 19-22 14288 to 35199 +246%
March 20- 23 19452 to 46337 + 233%
March 21 -24 26663 to 58569 + 220%
March 22-25 35199 to 70,398 + 200%
March 23-26 46337 to 83407 + 180%

Note: These predictions are so good, they needed their own thread, and I want them to be seen by all. You can take my predictions to the bank, people. But don't look for the Democrats or the media to allow this to wrap up so soon. As long as there are even a few thousand sick people, you will hear "But the virus could come back" or "Trump is saying it's over way too soon" or "Trump got bailed out by Democrat governors". All kinds of excuses to make people as scared for as long as they can. It's the only tool they feel they have to hurt Trump.

Isn't it ironic EVERY SINGLE TACTIC the left has come up with to harm him has fallen flat on its face? That's because God is protecting this great man.

" Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil: for thou art with me; thy rod and thy staff they comfort me. [5] Thou preparest a table before me in the presence of mine enemies: thou anointest my head with oil; my cup runneth over." --Psalm 23
Click to expand...



Note: These predictions are so good, they needed their own thread,

lol
 
Lovebug said:
Will this nonsense stop anytime soon?
Click to expand...

Why would it ?

Why SHOULD it ?

It was started by imbeciles, with moronic motives & wishes that will fail . . . again.

But stupid, crazy people, do they ever give up ?

No.

Not until they've banged their heads so much that they've become vegetables.
 
jamesbyoung said:
My modeling indicates the flattening of the curve will begin about April 25 and we will be out of the woods by 15 May.

The second infestation will begin about a month later.
Click to expand...

The curve started to flatten March 20, and is getting flatter every day. Look at the numbers on my OP.

Your caculations are impossible. if the progression moves at the same rate as it is now, you would exceed 330,000 million people long before April 25.
 
Hari Seldon said:
Not that I doubt your expertise in modeling, math and religion but will there be enough tests to keep up? Asking for a friend.
Click to expand...

Then there's how many were exposed and gained immunity with no, or mild symptoms.

Those who were infected and had such easy to tolerate symptoms, they didn't test or report.

Etc etc

The REAL data will never be known, it can't be.

Guesses and games with statistics may come close though.

We'll have to see how it plays out.

We'll have to wait & see if the opening posts predictions were close enough to be considered good.

It will be fun to see the reactions if they ARE good.
 
bluesmoke said:
Oh, and just being wonky for a moment, based on your numbers, we'll reach 89,286, which is more than China ever got, by Mar 26, and your 130,000 will be surpassed on Mar 29 with 148,896. UNLESS we test more people than we are doing now in which case it will be more.
Click to expand...

You are not taking into account the slowing of the increase percentage that has already begun. I have extrapolated a couple of days out.
 
Lovebug said:
I think it is a good idea to rely on the experts at this time.
Click to expand...

We should just suspend all thinking and rely on the climate change 'experts', too. Right? Then we can waste trillions of dollars more.
 
Some people just have a compulsive need to make predictions that will age very, very badly.
 
captaintrips said:
Then there's how many were exposed and gained immunity with no, or mild symptoms.

Those who were infected and had such easy to tolerate symptoms, they didn't test or report.

Etc etc

The REAL data will never be known, it can't be.

Guesses and games with statistics may come close though.

We'll have to see how it plays out.

We'll have to wait & see if the opening posts predictions were close enough to be considered good.

It will be fun to see the reactions if they ARE good.
Click to expand...

How about how many of those with little or no symptoms are carriers?

How long are they contagious?

What happens when these carriers come in contact with everyone at school, church, events...

What will really be fun is reading certain ultra conservative wingnuts next post.
 
Cardinal said:
Some people just have a compulsive need to make predictions that will age very, very badly.
Click to expand...

Let's find out. My prediction calls for 58,659 cases by 11:00 pm edt tonight, 70,398 by tomorrow night, and 83,407 by Thursday night. Let's see how it goes.
 
Hari Seldon said:
How about how many of those with little or no symptoms are carriers?
Click to expand...

Yes, there is that too.

Hari Seldon said:
How long are they contagious?
Click to expand...

An undetermined time .... we don't know exactly, guesses & stats from the many other corona viruses are what we CAN work from.

Hari Seldon said:
What happens when these carriers come in contact with everyone at school, church, events...
Click to expand...

Like Typhoid Mary, they pass it along. Corona Virus Jimmy ; )

Hari Seldon said:
What will really be fun is reading certain ultra conservative wingnuts next post.
Click to expand...

Can't beat free entertainment. Bored ?? Here's something for you. Go to news websites and close google ads ( you have to click on the little X ). You close them, more pop UP. It's like whack-a-mole. Chase 'em around, close 'em, click click *pop* click *pop* ... you NEVER have to be bored !! You won't read any news, but .. well, it's all about the magic virus anyways, so play whack-a-google-ad LOL
 
Mashmont said:
Let's find out. My prediction calls for 58659 cases by 11:00 pm edt tonight. And 70,398 by tomorrow night. And 83,407 by Thursday night. Let's see how it goes.
Click to expand...

I say 86,000, but we'll see. Your bad prediction is that this will level off.

However, this will be hard to ascertain in the present moment since testing is being rationed.
 
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