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Thread: New Category Of Lies

  1. #181
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    Re: New Category Of Lies

    Quote Originally Posted by Lursa View Post
    That doesnt work since the lockdown didnt start until late March, in most places. Your dates dont work.
    It doesn't matter, but fine. Here it is again:

    Explain to me the difference between the two scenarios:

    1. The lockdown goes into effect in early late March. It persists for nearly two months, until early May, during which time some 150,000 Americans are infected, and 1% of these (1,500) die as a result of the infection. The cost of the shutdown is approximately $6 trillion. Thousands of businesses nationwide are no longer solvent. In early May, the lockdown lifts and infection cases begin to rise exponentially once again. By July, 6 million Americans are infected. The mortality rate is 3%. By September--the earliest a vaccine can potentially become available--90 million Americans are infected. Although the government begins to roll out early vaccination throughout the fall, 250 million Americans have been infected by the time all the variants are no longer regularly circulating. 3% of these (7.5 million) are dead.

    2. The lockdown doesn't go into effect. The number of infected Americans rises exponentially. Although the government begins to roll out early vaccination throughout the fall, 250 million Americans have been infected by the time all the variants are no longer regularly circulating. 3% of these (7.5 million) are dead.

  2. #182
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    Re: New Category Of Lies

    Quote Originally Posted by COTO View Post
    It doesn't matter, but fine. Here it is again:

    Explain to me the difference between the two scenarios:

    1. The lockdown goes into effect in early late March. It persists for nearly two months, until early May, during which time some 150,000 Americans are infected, and 1% of these (1,500) die as a result of the infection. The cost of the shutdown is approximately $6 trillion. Thousands of businesses nationwide are no longer solvent. In early May, the lockdown lifts and infection cases begin to rise exponentially once again. By July, 6 million Americans are infected. The mortality rate is 3%. By September--the earliest a vaccine can potentially become available--90 million Americans are infected. Although the government begins to roll out early vaccination throughout the fall, 250 million Americans have been infected by the time all the variants are no longer regularly circulating. 3% of these (7.5 million) are dead.

    2. The lockdown doesn't go into effect. The number of infected Americans rises exponentially. Although the government begins to roll out early vaccination throughout the fall, 250 million Americans have been infected by the time all the variants are no longer regularly circulating. 3% of these (7.5 million) are dead.
    The effect on our medical resources is much less in the lockdown scenario. Have you not read or heard this? Even the Drs with Trump in the press conferences are stressing this. It flattens out that curve so that ALL our limited medical beds, ventilators, Drs, nurses, PPE, medicine, etc etc etc etc etc are not hit at the same time or clumped together so that more infected people (and other people hospitalized for ALL things) will have a better chance at survival because the resources will be more available spread out over time.

    Now do you see?
    Quote Originally Posted by cabse5 View Post
    Social distancing has nothing to do with preventing pandemic casualties.
    Quote Originally Posted by marke View Post
    Why try to prove things when science has never even tried to prove anything?
    RE: Italy's mortality rate
    Quote Originally Posted by Luther View Post
    Perhaps it because their population is so old(their own doing)?

  3. #183
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    Re: New Category Of Lies

    Quote Originally Posted by Lursa View Post
    The effect on our medical resources is much less in the lockdown scenario. Have you not read or heard this? Even the Drs with Trump in the press conferences are stressing this. It flattens out that curve so that ALL our limited medical beds, ventilators, Drs, nurses, PPE, medicine, etc etc etc etc etc are not hit at the same time or clumped together so that more infected people (and other people hospitalized for ALL things) will have a better chance at survival because the resources will be more available spread out over time.

    Now do you see?
    The instant the lockdown lifts, the virus will resume its exponential growth to infect the 329,900,000 people who weren't infected by COVID-19 as a result of the lockdown.

    So yes, while the lockdown remains in effect, medical services won't be overwhelmed (which isn't actually true, they're extremely overwhelmed, but I digress). Lockdown lifts: crap hits the fan. The 99.9% of the population not infected by the virus will get it and transmit it when business returns to normal. Do you think the fact that 0.1% (actually, less than that) of infections are out of the way is going to make a lick of difference to how flat the curve is and how overwhelmed the system is after the lockdown lifts?

    The only scenario where this doesn't happen is if we have good reason to believe the virus won't proliferate and/or kill as many people when the lockdown is lifted. And my point is that the lockdown will have to last at least another four months for this good reason (a potential vaccine) to exist. Many American businesses won't survive two months under the status quo, let alone four months.

    So you tell me: How does this lockdown fix anything for the 329,900,000 Americans yet to be infected? The only way it can even potentially work to prevent everybody from getting infected is by taking a wrecking ball to every sector of the economy simultaneously. And even this assumes that an effective vaccine can be developed and administered en masse in four months. Some estimates have it at 12 months. How many businesses do you think can survive a lockdown for 12 months? When the threat has passed, Americans won't have anything to go back to except a smoking crater.
    Last edited by COTO; 03-26-20 at 08:39 PM.

  4. #184
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    Re: New Category Of Lies

    Quote Originally Posted by COTO View Post
    The instant the lockdown lifts, the virus will resume its exponential growth to infect the 329,900,000 people who weren't infected by COVID-19 as a result of the lockdown.

    So yes, while the lockdown remains in effect, medical services won't be overwhelmed (which isn't actually true, they're extremely overwhelmed, but I digress). Lockdown lifts: crap hits the fan. The 99.9% of the population not infected by the virus will get it and transmit it when business returns to normal. Do you think the fact that 0.1% (actually, less than that) of infections are out of the way is going to make a lick of difference to how flat the curve is and how overwhelmed the system is after the lockdown lifts?

    The only scenario where this doesn't happen is if we have good reason to believe the virus won't proliferate and/or kill as many people when the lockdown is lifted. And my point is that the lockdown will have to last at least another four months for this good reason (a potential vaccine) to exist. Many American businesses won't survive two months under the status quo, let alone four months.

    So you tell me: How does this lockdown fix anything for the 329,900,000 Americans yet to be infected? The only way it can even potentially work to prevent everybody from getting infected is by taking a wrecking ball to every sector of the economy simultaneously. And even this assumes that an effective vaccine can be developed and administered en masse in four months. Some estimates have it at 12 months. How many businesses do you think can survive a lockdown for 12 months? When the threat has passed, Americans won't have anything to go back to except a smoking crater.
    Total infected numbers arent that important (in this conversation) when you realize that it's the number of those needing hospitalization/treatment that are the ones 'at risk' and the ones that will be overwhelming medical resources. That's why controlling the infections is important (spreading the numbers over time)...not the total # of infections.

    Until you understand this, the rest of your post isnt really relevant...you need to understand and readjust it.
    Quote Originally Posted by cabse5 View Post
    Social distancing has nothing to do with preventing pandemic casualties.
    Quote Originally Posted by marke View Post
    Why try to prove things when science has never even tried to prove anything?
    RE: Italy's mortality rate
    Quote Originally Posted by Luther View Post
    Perhaps it because their population is so old(their own doing)?

  5. #185
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    Re: New Category Of Lies

    Quote Originally Posted by Lursa View Post
    Total infected numbers arent that important (in this conversation) when you realize that it's the number of those needing hospitalization/treatment that are the ones 'at risk' and the ones that will be overwhelming medical resources. That's why controlling the infections is important (spreading the numbers over time)...not the total # of infections.
    Even if this were true (it's not), how many million years do you want to spread the infection over? The system is already overwhelmed with fewer than 100,000 total infections over the past two months. How many months do you suppose it would take to not overwhelm the system with 330 million infections?

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    Re: New Category Of Lies

    Quote Originally Posted by Lursa View Post
    Total infected numbers arent that important (in this conversation) when you realize that it's the number of those needing hospitalization/treatment that are the ones 'at risk' and the ones that will be overwhelming medical resources. That's why controlling the infections is important (spreading the numbers over time)...not the total # of infections.

    Until you understand this, the rest of your post isnt really relevant...you need to understand and readjust it.
    Quote Originally Posted by COTO View Post
    Even if this were true (it's not), how many million years do you want to spread the infection over? The system is already overwhelmed with fewer than 100,000 total infections over the past two months. How many months do you suppose it would take to not overwhelm the system with 330 million infections?
    It is true and this response from you shows you dont understand it.
    Last edited by Lursa; 03-27-20 at 01:29 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by cabse5 View Post
    Social distancing has nothing to do with preventing pandemic casualties.
    Quote Originally Posted by marke View Post
    Why try to prove things when science has never even tried to prove anything?
    RE: Italy's mortality rate
    Quote Originally Posted by Luther View Post
    Perhaps it because their population is so old(their own doing)?

  7. #187
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    Re: New Category Of Lies

    Quote Originally Posted by Lursa View Post
    It is true and this response from you shows you dont understand it.
    By all means, explain it to me. What is the difference in mortality between high-risk patients who are hospitalized and high-risk patients who aren't? Show me the numbers.

    Then explain to me how the total number of infections is unimportant.

  8. #188
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    Re: New Category Of Lies

    Quote Originally Posted by COTO View Post
    By all means, explain it to me. What is the difference in mortality between high-risk patients who are hospitalized and high-risk patients who aren't? Show me the numbers.

    Then explain to me how the total number of infections is unimportant.
    wow, read it all again. It's written to about the 5th grade level.

    But if you need to ask what the difference is in mortality in high-risk people that are hospitalized (and receive treatment, ventilator support, etc) and those that are not...it's hard to write things simpler.
    Quote Originally Posted by cabse5 View Post
    Social distancing has nothing to do with preventing pandemic casualties.
    Quote Originally Posted by marke View Post
    Why try to prove things when science has never even tried to prove anything?
    RE: Italy's mortality rate
    Quote Originally Posted by Luther View Post
    Perhaps it because their population is so old(their own doing)?

  9. #189
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    Re: New Category Of Lies

    Quote Originally Posted by Lursa View Post
    wow, read it all again. It's written to about the 5th grade level.

    But if you need to ask what the difference is in mortality in high-risk people that are hospitalized (and receive treatment, ventilator support, etc) and those that are not...it's hard to write things simpler.
    The only thing I've seen are the cocktail napkin numbers by @Chomsky in #167, which i) aren't sourced, and don't match the numbers I've seen quoted; ii) reflect differences in the demographics being infected (primarily age and tendency to smoke), not access to medical care; and iii) clearly indicate that the total number of infections is extremely important.

    If you have something to add, please either state it here or indicate the number of the post where you've said it.

  10. #190
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    Re: New Category Of Lies

    Quote Originally Posted by COTO View Post
    The only thing I've seen are the cocktail napkin numbers by @Chomsky in #167, which i) aren't sourced, and don't match the numbers I've seen quoted; ii) reflect differences in the demographics being infected (primarily age and tendency to smoke), not access to medical care; and iii) clearly indicate that the total number of infections is extremely important.

    If you have something to add, please either state it here or indicate the number of the post where you've said it.
    182, 184
    Quote Originally Posted by cabse5 View Post
    Social distancing has nothing to do with preventing pandemic casualties.
    Quote Originally Posted by marke View Post
    Why try to prove things when science has never even tried to prove anything?
    RE: Italy's mortality rate
    Quote Originally Posted by Luther View Post
    Perhaps it because their population is so old(their own doing)?

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