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You Know What I Don't Understand(Flu)?

Crovax said:
Corona virus mortality rate is 35 times more than the flu, it’s over twice as contagious, it might not be seasonal and has no vaccine
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it might not be seasonal and has no vaccine
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Oh I see "Might"?(LOL)

Vaccine on the way baby!
 
Chomsky said:
Quit knocking "Americans". If this was caused by Americans, why the hell did China lock down her economy? Why did the rest of the world? To blame Americans is nonsense! You can blame our administration for blowing the opportunity to contain the virus domestically in the early days. Quite a few Asia countries did better. But you can't blame Americans for the OP topic when the rest of the world is reacting the same.
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You blame Trump but that is because you find fault with Trump over everything he says and does if you are a typical disgruntled hateful democrat driven by politics rather than the good of the whole nation.

What did Trump do wrong, fail to secure the border fast enough for you?
 
maxparrish said:
I think you'd benefit by paying close attention to my previous, and always wise and informed postings:

Yes...the problem is your uncertain grasp and limited knowledge of the epidemiological statistics. Among the improvements needed:

1) There is a difference between mortality rates and death rates. Mortality rates are based on a total (at risk) population, and their mortality regardless of whether or not they are infected. Death rates (which you are using) is based only on KNOWN infections and the rate of death.
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Yes, my mistake there is a difference between mortality and death rate yet we don't what covid19s mortality rate is yet and is current death rate is pretty alarming.

maxparrish said:
2) COVID19's death rate, so far, is based on those who have been tested. As the number of tested grow, the death rate drops. In South Korea they tested hundreds of thousands, a much larger percentage of their population than the US has tested. As of March 3rd it was .6%, as of a few days ago it dropped to .12%.
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That's a small sample in a small time frame and no reason to not act swiftly right now. Neither you nor I can know what it will actually end up being.


maxparrish said:
3) CV-19's transmittablity and impact is highly correlated with age, climate, social habits, and demographics. Italy, for example, is nearly perfect for CV-19. It has a proportionally much larger number of old people, extended families often living in the same house, and customs of family social gatherings (as Catholics know) not less than every weekend. Moreover, their winter Mediterranean climate is perfect for a virus that is harmed by heat and high humidity.
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Thats a completely specious argument you pulled from your ass with no evidence. And while the risk of death is greater for older people, a Chinese study found 40% of serious cases were for people under 50.


maxparrish said:
4) CV-19's late start, as summer approach's will almost certainty preclude flu like levels of total infection. Moreover, as the US seems closer to South Korea than Italy on demographic and climate factors, the death rate will almost certainly drop as more are tested - no more than .8% and as low as .12%. And the majority of those will be more than 70.

MY prediction: by the end of summer the COVID virus will be far longer remembered for the over-reaction and the cause of a new great depression than it will as a pandemic.
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Well we all thank you for your prediction internet guy but I think the rest of us would rather take the advice of health care professionals and treat this thing seriously.


Luther said:
But we want to use this bad year as an example(wink) with what has happen so far with the CoroaVirus

CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in the U.S. - STAT
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Is that supposed to mean something to me? Why don't you stop winking and talk straight so people know what you're saying. Who is we and what do they want to use and for what purpose? None of that makes sense to anyone not locked inside your right wing mind.
 
less right said:
I hope that doesn't change.
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Well, I hear that if your over 70, you have a 15% chance of dying?

I'm 53, can do 16 chin ups, over 50 push ups and can go run 3 miles

I have a feeling I'll be fine
 
Master Debator said:
Yes, my mistake there is a difference between mortality and death rate yet we don't what covid19s mortality rate is yet and is current death rate is pretty alarming.



That's a small sample in a small time frame and no reason to not act swiftly right now. Neither you nor I can know what it will actually end up being.




Thats a completely specious argument you pulled from your ass with no evidence. And while the risk of death is greater for older people, a Chinese study found 40% of serious cases were for people under 50.





Well we all thank you for your prediction internet guy but I think the rest of us would rather take the advice of health care professionals and treat this thing seriously.




Is that supposed to mean something to me? Why don't you stop winking and talk straight so people know what you're saying. Who is we and what do they want to use and for what purpose? None of that makes sense to anyone not locked inside your right wing mind.
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Is that supposed to mean something to me?
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Yes

Why don't you stop winking
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Just for you


Who is we
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me baby!
 
Thanks for starting a great thread with a great topic.

Luther said:
How is it that in 2018, 80,000 Americans died of the flu without this Hysteria ?

There was no shutting down anything and we just lived our everyday lives for they were oblivious of it even happening
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I think our fears are due to a confluence of factors, with the "novel" factor being a prime underlying - but not singular or specific - motivator.

1] We first start with the premise that we have no immunity nor vaccine. This is a really big deal, but would not be so if we didn't have the other factors below.

2] It appears to be highly viral. More-so than others.

i] Victims have a long asymptomatic period where they appear to be highly contagious
ii] The virus, quite unusually, appears to live for days on surfaces. It's estimated that 4 of 5 transmissions are surface transmissions.
iii] The virus essentially goes directly to the lungs, focusing on destruction there.

3] It has a high fatality rate - 10X the flu

4] It has a very high fatality rate among those that are older or compromised.

Here we are and we only have 400 deaths and they recommend to not leave your house, only take out restaurants, shut down sporting events etc....

CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in the U.S. - STAT
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We are not reacting to '400 deaths'. We are prophylactic trying to prevent over-running our healthcare system, which in turn will absolutely cause skyrocketing deaths.

So, to recap:

1] It spreads like wildfire, with no known way to stop it.
2] It's very deadly.
3] Our current healthcare system & state of pandemic preparedness is inadequate to stop it, and is being over-run. This is occurring now with our shortage of PPE supplies, and will soon occur in many areas where the beds & respirator availability will be over-run, which is why Trump is sending hospital ships & the military is building & re-purposing additional bed-spaces like mad (as China did)
3 It is overrunning our healthcare system, only to get worse if no measures are taken.

And, to sum it up in one line:

"We are trying to maintain the functionality of our healthcare system"
 
Chomsky said:
Thanks for starting a great thread with a great topic.

I think our fears are due to a confluence of factors, with the "novel" factor being a prime underlying - but not singular or specific - motivator.

1] We first start with the premise that we have no immunity nor vaccine. This is a really big deal, but would not be so if we didn't have the other factors below.

2] It appears to be highly viral. More-so than others.

i] Victims have a long asymptomatic period where they appear to be highly contagious
ii] The virus, quite unusually, appears to live for days on surfaces. It's estimated that 4 of 5 transmissions are surface transmissions.
iii] The virus essentially goes directly to the lungs, focusing on destruction there.

3] It has a high fatality rate - 10X the flu

4] It has a very high fatality rate among those that are older or compromised.

We are not reacting to '400 deaths'. We are prophylactic trying to prevent over-running our healthcare system, which in turn will absolutely cause skyrocketing deaths.

So, to recap:

1] It spreads like wildfire, with no known way to stop it.
2] It's very deadly.
3] Our current healthcare system & state of pandemic preparedness is inadequate to stop it, and is being over-run. This is occurring now with our shortage of PPE supplies, and will soon occur in many areas where the beds & respirator availability will be over-run, which is why Trump is sending hospital ships & the military is building & re-purposing additional bed-spaces like mad (as China did)
3 It is overrunning our healthcare system, only to get worse if no measures are taken.

And, to sum it up in one line:

"We are trying to maintain the functionality of our healthcare system"
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1] It spreads like wildfire, with no known way to stop it.
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Have you ever heard how fast a normal Flu season spreads in a school?
 
holbritter said:
We know what to expect with the seasonal flu, we don't with this. The reproduction/infection rate is much higher than the seasonal flu. We don't know yet how many people are going to die until this is over. There is no vaccine like we have for the seasonal flu.

Just a few reasons.
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Also no "herd immunity" to this new virus.
 
Master Debator said:
Thats a completely specious argument you pulled from your ass with no evidence. And while the risk of death is greater for older people, a Chinese study found 40% of serious cases were for people under 50.
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Lots of people keep making this argument both about China and the US.

The number in isolation is meaningless because it doesn’t account for the size of the populations involved.

40% of the serious cases in China are people under 50. 81% of the Chinese population is below age 60 and probably 75% is below 50. That paints a much different picture than the number in isolation suggests.

Same goes for the US.
 
Luther said:
How is it that in 2018, 80,000 Americans died of the flu without this Hysteria ?

There was no shutting down anything and we just lived our everyday lives for they were oblivious of it even happening

Here we are and we only have 400 deaths and they recommend to not leave your house, only take out restaurants, shut down sporting events etc....


CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in the U.S. - STAT
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4-Curvy-2.png



Virus outbreaks follow a bell curve.

With coronavirus, we're just at the base of the hill. How high is the coronavirus curve? Nobody knows.

We've lived with the flu for years.
 
Luther said:
Man, you need a government job like me

I get paid right now and I'm not working(wink)


And the Fed Gov hasn't sent my 1000 $$$ check yet
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:lamo

Ever the example of American exceptionalism you right wingers. No thanks Luther. I enjoy being a young small business owner with a pretty nice contract working in the Healthcare industry. I didn't become a doctor like a lot of my relatives, mainly because I couldn't wait to get out of school but I do alright. And the job me and my guys do is important. Not only now with us transporting covid19 samples to testing facilities but we also pick up stat shipments from oneblood centers and transport samples to lifelink for donor testing. All in all I get to go home every day satisfied with my job which is both pretty easy and still rewarding.
 
Chomsky said:
Thanks for starting a great thread with a great topic.

I think our fears are due to a confluence of factors, with the "novel" factor being a prime underlying - but not singular or specific - motivator.

1] We first start with the premise that we have no immunity nor vaccine. This is a really big deal, but would not be so if we didn't have the other factors below.

2] It appears to be highly viral. More-so than others.

i] Victims have a long asymptomatic period where they appear to be highly contagious
ii] The virus, quite unusually, appears to live for days on surfaces. It's estimated that 4 of 5 transmissions are surface transmissions.
iii] The virus essentially goes directly to the lungs, focusing on destruction there.

3] It has a high fatality rate - 10X the flu

4] It has a very high fatality rate among those that are older or compromised.

We are not reacting to '400 deaths'. We are prophylactic trying to prevent over-running our healthcare system, which in turn will absolutely cause skyrocketing deaths.

So, to recap:

1] It spreads like wildfire, with no known way to stop it.
2] It's very deadly.
3] Our current healthcare system & state of pandemic preparedness is inadequate to stop it, and is being over-run. This is occurring now with our shortage of PPE supplies, and will soon occur in many areas where the beds & respirator availability will be over-run, which is why Trump is sending hospital ships & the military is building & re-purposing additional bed-spaces like mad (as China did)
3 It is overrunning our healthcare system, only to get worse if no measures are taken.

And, to sum it up in one line:

"We are trying to maintain the functionality of our healthcare system"
Click to expand...

I largely agree with you. My only question is on surface tranmission. I’ve heard just the opposite that surface transmission is not the primary mechanism and that the virus can only live for hours to about a day on surfaces in lab conditions meaning that in the real world the lifespan of the virus on surfaces is likely to be significantly less.
 
Master Debator said:
:lamo

Ever the example of American exceptionalism you right wingers. No thanks Luther. I enjoy being a young small business owner with a pretty nice contract working in the Healthcare industry. I didn't become a doctor like a lot of my relatives, mainly because I couldn't wait to get out of school but I do alright. And the job me and my guys do is important. Not only now with us transporting covid19 samples to testing facilities but we also pick up stat shipments from oneblood centers and transport samples to lifelink for donor testing. All in all I get to go home every day satisfied with my job which is both pretty easy and still rewarding.
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I enjoy being a young small business owner with a pretty nice contract working in the Healthcare industry.
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Do you not pay a Fed and state income tax as I don't?

Or are you chipping in and paying for us 44% who do not?
 
Gaius46 said:
Lots of people keep making this argument both about China and the US.

The number in isolation is meaningless because it doesn’t account for the size of the populations involved.

40% of the serious cases in China are people under 50. 81% of the Chinese population is below age 60 and probably 75% is below 50. That paints a much different picture than the number in isolation suggests.

Same goes for the US.
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Im not really taking that study as gospel, I'm just throwing it out there as a data point. The fact is that we really don't have enough information right now and we should all be listening to our health care professionals.
 
swing_voter said:
4-Curvy-2.png



Virus outbreaks follow a bell curve.

With coronavirus, we're just at the base of the hill. How high is the coronavirus curve? Nobody knows.

We've lived with the flu for years.
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It's starting to warm up swing man and a vaccine soon on the way
 
Luther said:
But, is the actual death rate lower or same if one contracts it?
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Ok.

I'm going to assume you know nothing about the actual subject.

This is a "novel" virus. This means it is new and humans have no existing immunity. The flu has been around a long time. We have "herd immunity". This means we have some immunity to even the latest mutation.

That 80% that only get minor symptoms is spread over all the age demographics, except those under 19. It is highly contagious and some who are contagious have no symptoms or those so minor that a dayquil will render them apparently asymptomatic.

What this means in layman's terms is everybody can get it, it is easy to get, and folks are spreading it that don't even know they have it. Have been for months.

The real risk is that too many of that vulnerable 20% will catch it at the same time and our healthcare infrastructure will get overwhelmed. And lots of people will die. Lots.

Tl/dr version. This is not the flu. It is a different virus, and it is new. We have no immunity. Everybody can catch it. 20% will need medical intervention.

If we were all exposed at the same time that would be 66 million people needing hospitalization at the same time.

And that would he bad. Really bad.

This can't happen with the flu. We have herd immunity and vaccines. In a year or so we should have herd immunity and vaccines for COVID-19. It will.likely be something we see every year like the flu and the common cold. But it will never be as dangerous again as it is right now.
 
Luther said:
It's starting to warm up swing man and a vaccine soon on the way
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COVID-19 is merrily spreading in the southern hemisphere.

Where it is summer now.

Don't get your hopes up for an "April miracle"
 
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