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Expect a Million Deaths

The "Experts" once again have downgraded their death toll predictions. We have gone from 1.7 million deaths and there being nothing that could be done to lessen those numbers because Trump! To now, less than a month later, the "Experts" have revised it down to 82k.
Some of the people in this thread along with the "Experts" should be very embarrassed about how wrong they were.
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) now predicts that 81,766 people will die of COVID-19 in the U.S.
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IHME Data Predicts Fewer Coronavirus Deaths in the US

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trouble13 said:
The "Experts" once again have downgraded their death toll predictions. We have gone from 1.7 million deaths and there being nothing that could be done to lessen those numbers because Trump! To now, less than a month later, the "Experts" have revised it down to 82k.
Some of the people in this thread along with the "Experts" should be very embarrassed about how wrong they were.
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) now predicts that 81,766 people will die of COVID-19 in the U.S.

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All that is left to say is that Trump's quick and decisive actions regarding the pandemic have saved 1.6 million US lives.

:applaud
 
Barnacle said:
All that is left to say is that Trump's quick and decisive actions regarding the pandemic have saved 1.6 million US lives.

:applaud
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I wouldn't say that because those numbers were hyper-inflated, IMO
But....
The left is kinda forced to have to say that after they adamantly backed the experts and demanded everyone give them unquestioned fidelity.

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trouble13 said:
I wouldn't say that because those numbers were hyper-inflated, IMO
But....
The left is kinda forced to have to say that after they adamantly backed the experts and demanded everyone give them unquestioned fidelity.

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Of course they were hyper-inflated ... :lol: ... ;)
 
Barnacle said:
Of course they were hyper-inflated ... [emoji38] ... ;)
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I guessed the real number would be closer to 50k back at the begining of this thread and was mocked for saying so.

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trouble13 said:
I guessed the real number would be closer to 50k back at the begining of this thread and was mocked for saying so.

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You act as if we're done.
 
Barnacle said:
All that is left to say is that Trump's quick and decisive actions regarding the pandemic have saved 1.6 million US lives.

:applaud
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Which one? The "it's just one guy from China" or "a miracle will happen"?
 
maxparrish said:
Yes, the revision promised for Saturday was posted overnight. Among the nuggets:

1) Hospital utilization rates (ICU's etc) WAY DOWN. A week or more ago a conservative researcher-writer wrote a blistering complaint over their very large over-forecast of shortages...looks like they were aware, or became aware, of it.

2) They've lowered their forecasted overall death totals considerably, from 93,500 to 80,000 (figures rounded). Good news.

3) Counter-intuitively they have increased the 4/16 peak rate from 2644 to 3130, and the cumulative 4/16 death total from 35,000 to 40,000.

The charts I have been constructing (and following) conform to EITHER outcome as plausible.

In any event, it is one more development that undermines the "sky is falling" sensationalism that has preoccupied the partisan lobby.
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I suppose it could have been worse had we not all sheltered, but it's still a PITA.
 
trouble13 said:
I guessed the real number would be closer to 50k back at the begining of this thread and was mocked for saying so.

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Would you like more mocking?

I’d be happy to deliver.

I’ve got enough material, that’s for sure.
 
calamity said:
Here's why.



Yes, the problem is due to a complete failure at the top.




Update:


ETErg4GXkAUllgT

Graph shows how far behind Italy we are and how our trajectory compares.
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Where did the money go? To the 1%, the wall etc etc etc
 
GreatNews2night said:
I don't think you've realized what the real risk is: that the health care system gets overwhelmed. The flu was a loooooooooot slower to get to its 34,157. The SARS-CoV-2 has been very fast. Also, the flu had much shorter hospitalization stays, days, while COVID-19 keeps people in the hospital for 2-3 weeks.

If you surpass a regional hospital capacity, you will start to see a lot of other deaths that will be collateral damage, so to speak.
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(Emphasis mine)

I don't get why this is so hard to understand. A typical flu season last 6 months (October to April), sometimes 7, depending on weather. Fatality levels are fairly well distributed throughout that period. There may be as few as 12,000 and as many as 60,000 deaths in a season (even now, the disease burden is only an estimate). On average, that means a range of 200-2300 fatalities a week (typically, closer to 1300/week). We're already exceeding that in all the 5 weeks we've been experiencing this outbreak (2174/week), and over the last week we've been seeing over 900 fatalities a day - not per week. The fatality rate is still rising. Moreover, a typical flu "crisis" (hospitalization) last 3-5 days, whereas a COVID crisis is 10 days to 20 days of ICU/recovery care. Yet people still want to compare this outbreak to "the flu".
 
Hamish Howl said:
You act as if we're done.
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Are you disputing how many the experts are predicting? A month ago when it was 1.7 million it was considered gospel but now that its 83k its "lets wait and see"???

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Threegoofs said:
Would you like more mocking?

I’d be happy to deliver.

I’ve got enough material, that’s for sure.
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As long as you understand that you do so at your own risk. I am going to continue to bump this thread, for better or worse until the numbers are concrete and you will own everything you post.

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trouble13 said:
As long as you understand that you do so at your own risk. I am going to continue to bump this thread, for better or worse until the numbers are concrete and you will own everything you post.

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What this thread proved is that early efforts of social distancing worked. Both Ohio and California arrested their viral growth rate while idiot Red states like Florida now skyrocket.

Ohio is very telling. A republican who is hated by the nutty side of the Party effectively put out the fire while it raged on in neighboring states: PA, MI and IN. Another neighbor, KY, quickly shut down early as well, and they now have an extremely low case-count.
 
calamity said:
Here's why.



Yes, the problem is due to a complete failure at the top.




Update:


ETErg4GXkAUllgT

Graph shows how far behind Italy we are and how our trajectory compares.
Click to expand...

At this point and in light of the various measures taken by Trump starting with his public announcement of his concern stated during the State of the Union Address, your prediction seems to be way wrong.

I wonder if the national and local response, resisted by Pelosi, would have been less lacking if Antsy Nancy had read/listened to the State of the Union Address instead of tearing it up.

Judging by the departure from your prediction, do you wish to correct your assessment to indicate that there has been a complete success at the top?

Out of curiosity, do you understand that our healthcare system is based in and regulated by each state and preparedness in this is charged to the governors?
 
calamity said:
What this thread proved is that early efforts of social distancing worked. Both Ohio and California arrested their viral growth rate while idiot Red states like Florida now skyrocket.

Ohio is very telling. A republican who is hated by the nutty side of the Party effectively put out the fire while it raged on in neighboring states: PA, MI and IN. Another neighbor, KY, quickly shut down early as well, and they now have an extremely low case-count.
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I would quote directly from the link in your OP but the coward took it down now that his claims completely imploded on him.
The fact is that you were promoting his claim that over 1 million deaths were inevitable because of how badly the Trump administration mishandled it at the begining. It was all just a bunch of fear mongering that you were all to happy to jump on board with because you saw it as an opportunity to damage Trump politically, which is dispicable.
Attempting to drum up fear in people at that level should be considered domestic terrorism.
The numbers were grossly exagerated and far from being forgone conclusions that they trying to be passed off. Your so called experts are nothing but political assains who all deserve our scorn.
Your posts are nothing but hateful screeds that put your irrational disdain for people who have different ideas than yours. Its the textbook definition of bigotry and prejuidicism.

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trouble13 said:
I would quote directly from the link in your OP but the coward took it down now that his claims completely imploded on him.
The fact is that you were promoting his claim that over 1 million deaths were inevitable because of how badly the Trump administration mishandled it at the begining. It was all just a bunch of fear mongering that you were all to happy to jump on board with because you saw it as an opportunity to damage Trump politically, which is dispicable.
Attempting to drum up fear in people at that level should be considered domestic terrorism.
The numbers were grossly exagerated and far from being forgone conclusions that they trying to be passed off. Your so called experts are nothing but political assains who all deserve our scorn.
Your posts are nothing but hateful screeds that put your irrational disdain for people who have different ideas than yours. Its the textbook definition of bigotry and prejuidicism.

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Yes, a million deaths were inevitable if we had continued to rely on Trump. That much is obvious. Hell, the guy's current solution is to push a quack cure.
 
Jack Hays said:
[FONT="][URL="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/07/coronavirus-correcting-recent-u-s-weekly-death-statistics-for-incomplete-reporting/"]
US-CDC-death-data-thru-Week-10-2020-01-550x309-1.jpg
[/URL][/FONT]
[h=1]#coronavirus Correcting Recent U.S. Weekly Death Statistics for Incomplete Reporting[/h][FONT="][FONT=inherit]From Dr Roy Spencer’s Blog April 6th, 2020 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. I am seeing an increasing number of people on social media pointing to the weekly CDC death statistics which show a unusually low number of total deaths for this time of year, when one would expect the number to be increasing…[/FONT]
[FONT=inherit][URL="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/07/coronavirus-correcting-recent-u-s-weekly-death-statistics-for-incomplete-reporting/"]Continue reading →[/URL][/FONT]
[/FONT]
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It keeps looking more and more like a panic caused by the media, because it's an election year.
 
Interesting report on the coronavirus and results, too bad that the left and media only focuses on deaths and not recovery plus the fact that they focus on total numbers of cases and not percentage of the population

Coronavirus (COVID-19) live map tracker from Microsoft Bing

Interesting if you divide the number of cases by the population to come up with a percentage. Anyone here believe that a nation of over a billion people(China) could have such few cases and deaths?

Good fuel here for people who want to blame America first while ignoring world reaction. Bet their attitude would change if it weren't for Trump on the WH
 
Conservative said:
Interesting report on the coronavirus and results, too bad that the left and media only focuses on deaths and not recovery plus the fact that they focus on total numbers of cases and not percentage of the population

Coronavirus (COVID-19) live map tracker from Microsoft Bing

Interesting if you divide the number of cases by the population to come up with a percentage. Anyone here believe that a nation of over a billion people(China) could have such few cases and deaths?

Good fuel here for people who want to blame America first while ignoring world reaction. Bet their attitude would change if it weren't for Trump on the WH
Click to expand...

Everyone knows China is lying. India is too---well, they are not "lying," per se. They are simply not testing people in the slums--same difference.

What's your point?
 
Bad death day with over 1000 in the books already. But, the case number appears to be trending lower than it has over the past few days at 13,740.
 
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