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Expect a Million Deaths

calamity said:
Gawd I hope not. But, FL is going to explode in the next ten days. That much is a mathematical certainty.
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Heres the projections from UW for Florida.

Expects the peak to be May 3rd.

It also assumes solid compliance with stay in place orders ( I’m pretty sure Easter church services would not be considered OK) through the end of May.


561fa27e16f41e78d2a7e0f5f1d96c14.jpg
 
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Jack Hays said:
Why do you fear the data?
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We all know the data. The deaths from the flu have only been noted on DP about 1,000 times or so, so only you know why we needed another ignoramus making that same point for the 1,001st time.

It's not the flu. It's far worse then the flu. Any argument that it's just the flu is garbage.
 
JasperL said:
We all know the data. The deaths from the flu have only been noted on DP about 1,000 times or so, so only you know why we needed another ignoramus making that same point for the 1,001st time.

It's not the flu. It's far worse then the flu. Any argument that it's just the flu is garbage.
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Annually, the flu has been more deadly than COVID-19 is thus far. That should not be a controversial statement.
 
Jack Hays said:
Annually, the flu has been more deadly than COVID-19 is thus far. That should not be a controversial statement.
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It's only misleading. :roll:
 
Jack Hays said:
Annually, the flu has been more deadly than COVID-19 is thus far. That should not be a controversial statement.
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Yes, we know this.

Did you have another point because, again, this is about the 1,002nd time it's been noted on DP.

It's also predictable that two doctors published in WSJ then summarized by The Blaze ignored all the context of their test case - Vo, Italy. The town was one of the early outbreak areas and recorded Italy's first death. On Feb 24th, the government put the entire town on lockdown, tested every resident, and did very aggressive test and trace and quarantine on all those tested positive, and it worked. So they're effectively using Vo, which is a test case for aggressive test and tracing and a total lockdown, to argue against that, which isn't surprising for hacks.

It's also interesting that they ignored the death rate of this little town. We don't know how many died, but it's at least one (Vo recorded the first Italy death), and they argue that a 1/90 CFR in this town supports a CFR worldwide of perhaps 0.06%, 1/18th the actual death rate in Vo (if no others died, a fact ignored by the article) which is interesting math.

Now these morons are arguing it's fair to extrapolate their infection rate to an entire region - why we do not know since Vo had one of the earliest known outbreaks of CV19 - but then they do not want to extrapolate the CFR from this town. So it's a nice bit of cherry picking data. It's also interesting how these guys note that about half the infected in Vo were asymptomatic (an assumption in many of the models), but they use Vo to argue that testing only those with symptoms leads to an undercount of cases by a factor of 130. How they get from testing missing half of all cases (those not tested because no symptoms) to testing missing 99.23% is also a mystery.
 
calamity said:
So then you agree COVID-19 is worse than the seasonal flu. Correct?
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Certainly it has had sudden impact and is a dangerous disease. Whether it's "worse" than the seasonal flu is a verdict to be reached in time, and after deciding what "worse" means.
 
Jack Hays said:
That's because there's a lot of experience with flu.

[h=3]How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu? | Live ...[/h]www.livescience.com › new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu
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Mar 25, 2020 - Typical flu symptoms include fever, cough, sore throat, muscle aches, headaches, runny or stuffy nose, fatigue and, sometimes, vomiting and ...
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More "experience" with treating flu doesn't equate to fewer hospitalizations. Fewer hospitalizations from flu versus COVID is a function of the severity of the flu versus COVID. COVID 19 is far worse - that's what the data show - and that's why more infected are hospitalized and more of them, even young people, end up in the ICU.
 
Jack Hays said:
Certainly it has had sudden impact and is a dangerous disease. Whether it's "worse" than the seasonal flu is a verdict to be reached in time, and after deciding what "worse" means.
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Worse meaning being unable to breathe within a week of getting hit by this thing, which seems to be the case with most of the 5000 plus who have already died.
 
Jack Hays said:
Certainly it has had sudden impact and is a dangerous disease. Whether it's "worse" than the seasonal flu is a verdict to be reached in time, and after deciding what "worse" means.
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1) more contagious
2) sends more of the infected to the hospital
3) more of those to the ICU, often for up to two weeks
4) more deadly

Seems to cover the bases pretty well. The only thing on the plus side is CV19 is apparently less harmful to young people than the common flu, which is significant.
 
JasperL said:
1) more contagious
2) sends more of the infected to the hospital
3) more of those to the ICU, often for up to two weeks
4) more deadly

Seems to cover the bases pretty well. The only thing on the plus side is CV19 is apparently less harmful to young people than the common flu, which is significant.
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That's who conspiracy theorists work.
They reject all data, facts, science, models, reality using pathological skepticism.
Then they support a position with no data, facts, science, models, using a tinfoil hat.

That's why someone can claim there is now current way to determine if seasonal flu is better or worse than CV19.
As the entire world is shut down, as the economy is shut down, as record numbers of people per day are dying from a disease that is just getting warmed up.

The lack of basic critical thinking skills is mind blowing.
 
Mach said:
That's who conspiracy theorists work.
They reject all data, facts, science, models, reality using pathological skepticism.
Then they support a position with no data, facts, science, models, using a tinfoil hat.

That's why someone can claim there is now current way to determine if seasonal flu is better or worse than CV19.
As the entire world is shut down, as the economy is shut down, as record numbers of people per day are dying from a disease that is just getting warmed up.

The lack of basic critical thinking skills is mind blowing.
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Sorry, but that's just smug ignorance.
I'm not aware of a conspiracy theory.
Fact remains that flu, thus far, has been annually more lethal than COVID-19. Perspective is never a bad thing.
 
calamity said:
Florida doesn't have it under control. Like all things Right Wing, they fiddled while it spread.

Watch FL go NY over the next few weeks, 100,000 cases there, alone.
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Yes, Florida might have a serious problem. A lot of older retired people live in Florida. Still roughing 95% of the country has the virus under control. Look at the link provided. In CA, largest state in population, five died in one day, a reasonable mortality rate for the sick and elderly.
 
Jack Hays said:
Sorry, but that's just smug ignorance.
I'm not aware of a conspiracy theory.
Fact remains that flu, thus far, has been annually more lethal than COVID-19. Perspective is never a bad thing.
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That perspective is irrelevant to anything of importance regarding CV19 versus the common flu. To think it's a useful comparison you have to ignorantly ignore the dramatic and often draconian efforts to slow and limit the spread of CV19, worldwide, versus the roughly no such efforts engaged in to slow the spread of the annual flu other than vaccinations. You also have to ignore that we're just basically a month into the CV19 'season' (as of March 1, the U.S. had 61 confirmed cases and no deaths) that will last a year or so, into 2021, and that you're comparing those CV19 results to the entire flu season in the U.S. and elsewhere.
 
The Trump White House finally released this information. It is about time. The article is dated Feb. 29, but it appeared on the internet only recently.

Age of Coronavirus Deaths


This is illuminating. Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer

It shows the death rate of those below the age of 50 is infinitesimal. Which begs a question.

Are older people afflicted with Covid-19 who are already sick dying of lung disease, pneumonia, influenza, heart disease, etc. or are they dying because of Covid-19?
 
Sandy Shanks said:
Yes, Florida might have a serious problem. A lot of older retired people live in Florida. Still roughing 95% of the country has the virus under control. Look at the link provided. In CA, largest state in population, five died in one day, a reasonable mortality rate for the sick and elderly.
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Cali jumped on it early. To their credit, they went South Korea on this thing's ass.
 
Threegoofs said:
Heres the projections from UW for Florida.

Expects the peak to be May 3rd.

It also assumes solid compliance with stay in place orders ( I’m pretty sure Easter church services would not be considered OK) through the end of May.


561fa27e16f41e78d2a7e0f5f1d96c14.jpg
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How do you cut and paste a graph or photo on this forum?
 
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21,000 new cases and 680 new deaths today already, and we still have 10 hours to go :shock:
 
Sandy Shanks said:
How do you cut a paste a graph or photo on this forum?
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Often images can be copied - right click - copy image address, then choose "insert image" from the icons at the top of a reply box, third from far right - it's the icon that looks like a tree I think in a picture frame. If copying an image address, choose "from URL."

Or you can screen shot an image - shift-command-4 on a Mac - and then insert image "from computer" using that same icon.
 
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