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Expect a Million Deaths

Paradoxical said:
Who is they?
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The WHO, CDC, doctors, researchers and epidemiologists and other experts the news media refers to. 'They' will suffice as my fingers get tired. Or if you like, listen to Glenn Beck, Sean Hannity and some dude on Facebook who also thinks windmills give people cancer - I'm sure they know just as much.
 
dcaraz said:
Excellent explanation of our joint reality. Are you in health-related field? You say that you report to county health department.
And thanks for your life-saving reminder bottom of page. Too many folks have been unwilling to take this outbreak seriously. That is the primary cause for rapid spread.
We are hunkered down and disinfecting surfaces, taking many precautions. But too many Americans still gathering in groups while nurses in NY are wearing a single mask for their entire shift.
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Thanks. Yes, I'm in a health-related field. I won't give more details of my credentials because one, it's private information that I don't want to share in a public forum, and two, I'm well aware that when people claim credentials, others tend to not believe them and tend to berate them as fake or posing. But I can say as much, that I'm obviously in a health-related field or else I wouldn't know as much about the inner details of this, right? So, that cat is out of the hat already (not to forget, oops, I shouldn't have talked about reporting to the Health Department if I wanted to keep my personal professional activity private; sometimes in the heat of the argument we let unintended stuff out), so there is no point in denying it or trying to hide it, any longer.

But if someone asks me for more specific credentials or job titles, instead of a yes or no answer, I'll probably say "I can't confirm nor deny what you are asking me about." LOL

Yes, the situation with a lack or scarcity of PPE is damn scary. That's what might make of us, Italy 2.0. In Italy, a while ago when I checked - by now it's probably much more - Italian news on TV which I get through my satellite subscription, mentioned that 1 in 5 of the people taking care of COVID-19 patients caught the virus; at the time, 5,400 doctors and nurses had already caught it. Many died of it, themselves. Particularly sad was the report of an Italian doctor whose last words before he went into a coma from which he did not recover, was apologizing to his family because he took care of a COVID-19 patient without gloves; he said, "I had to do it, we had no gloves, we had to intubate that patient or else he would die, so I did it without gloves, I'm sorry that now I got it too and will make of my wife a widow and of my children, orphans."

When I hear these stories, I get really angry at the morons who still deny the seriousness of this illness and call it "just a flu" and "no big deal" and accuse others who are just trying to warn them so that they'll be safe, of being partisan hacks who want to incite panic for political purposes, or Chicken Littles or liberal snowflakes.

This virus hits conservatives, moderates, and progressives alike. It hits Republicans, Democrats, and independents alike. And it is a damn serious and scary virus. Be safe out there.
 
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Lord of Planar said:
Corry. I don't believe the propaganda you do.

He has an axe to grind. Do you see that or not?
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One statistic you cannot get around is the based on the deaths and the people that have recovered (Deaths = 30,000. People recovered = 141,000), it means that almost 1 out of every 5 people infected are dying.

With the U.S. having a population of 350 million, you can do the math yourself.

Then again, some nations are doing better than others and therefore adjustments for the nation preparedness have to be made.

It is impossible right now to speculate on how many will die in the U.S. since recovery takes at least 2-3 weeks before it can be a statistic while deaths occur much faster. Right now, the amount of deaths versus recovered in the U.S. is 61% deaths versus recovered (1988 deaths and 3299 recovered), meaning that 1 out of 2.5 people infected are dying. Nonetheless, since many who are recovering have not passed 2 weeks, they cannot be counted.

Either way though, the numbers are bad, especially in places like Italy where 10,000+ have died and only 12,500 recovered and there, the two week period of time is now in place.

What the final figure will be is not clear and cannot be evaluated correctly but given that 70% of the population will at some point get the virus (approximately 245 million) and 1 out of 5 are dying, it would suggest the number could be as high as 45 million.

As such, Calamity's number of 1 million, is actually quite "conservative".
 
washunut said:
She would have a hard job in any administration. No administration tells the total truth in very hard times for fear of panicking the public. Trump might be worse, but not much different than most in dire situations.
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Sure, but her job is made worse by Trump's whims. You know, he was mad at Dr. Fauci for contradicting him by saying "not so fast" when Trump inappropriately touted the miracle cures that he was expecting for chloroquine, based on a French preliminary open label study with 23 patients, of whom one died (so a death rate of more than 5% despite the treatment), that showed a reduction in viral load but no better outcome when compared to the control group. Medicine is filled to the brink of promising treatments that when replicated in bigger, randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled trials, show no separation from placebo, therefore are of no value. "Dr." Trump's advice resulted in a run to pharmacies to get the drug (when actually the drug used in France was hydroxychloroquine), which now is sold out for patients who do need it to treat lupus and rheumatoid arthritis, and at least one dead person who took a similar chemical thinking, based on hearing Trump, that it would prevent the coronavirus disease.

So, Dr. Fauci said "not so fast" and Trump was very mad at him. He wasn't present in some of the recent briefings...

Therefore, Dr. Brix needs to watch her words, if she wants to keep her job. We know how fast Trump fires people in his own inner circle at the smallest hint of what he sees as disloyalty.
 
eman623 said:
Not some chinese flu. The Chinese Flu.

If we gave it anyone's name, it would be #xivirus. But your dear leader Xi wouldn't like that so I guess you can't ever call it that.
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#TrumpVirus
#TrumpBodyCount
#TrumpIncompetence

Deal with it.
 
Luckyone said:
One statistic you cannot get around is the based on the deaths and the people that have recovered (Deaths = 30,000. People recovered = 141,000), it means that almost 1 out of every 5 people infected are dying.

With the U.S. having a population of 350 million, you can do the math yourself.

Then again, some nations are doing better than others and therefore adjustments for the nation preparedness have to be made.

It is impossible right now to speculate on how many will die in the U.S. since recovery takes at least 2-3 weeks before it can be a statistic while deaths occur much faster. Right now, the amount of deaths versus recovered in the U.S. is 61% deaths versus recovered (1988 deaths and 3299 recovered), meaning that 1 out of 2.5 people infected are dying. Nonetheless, since many who are recovering have not passed 2 weeks, they cannot be counted.

Either way though, the numbers are bad, especially in places like Italy where 10,000+ have died and only 12,500 recovered and there, the two week period of time is now in place.

What the final figure will be is not clear and cannot be evaluated correctly but given that 70% of the population will at some point get the virus (approximately 245 million) and 1 out of 5 are dying, it would suggest the number could be as high as 45 million.

As such, Calamity's number of 1 million, is actually quite "conservative".
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No, it doesn't mean that. It's just that people take weeks to recover. It doesn't mean that the ones who haven't recovered yet will die. There is no place on Earth where the case-fatality rate is 20% or even 40% like you are saying. Like I said, the estimates I find best are between 0.8 and 1.4%. I've been using the 0.8% figure in my calculations.

See, the "people infected" are not just the recovered ones versus the dead ones; it's also the ACTIVE cases, people who are confirmed to have the virus but haven't recovered yet. These, for the US right now, are 114,854. So, the CFR (case-fatality rate) is much lower than you are calculating, not to forget the likely huge number of people who are also active cases but don't know it because they have mild, asymptomatic infections and haven't been tested.

45 million? This will never happen. No way.

And it likely won't get the whole population. Harvard epidemiologists anticipate an infection rate of 40 to 70% of the world population over a full year and even that is likely to be too large a number. It won't be 100% because many people will efficiently isolate themselves or take precautions.
 
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Luckyone said:
One statistic you cannot get around is the based on the deaths and the people that have recovered (Deaths = 30,000. People recovered = 141,000), it means that almost 1 out of every 5 people infected are dying.

With the U.S. having a population of 350 million, you can do the math yourself.

Then again, some nations are doing better than others and therefore adjustments for the nation preparedness have to be made.

It is impossible right now to speculate on how many will die in the U.S. since recovery takes at least 2-3 weeks before it can be a statistic while deaths occur much faster. Right now, the amount of deaths versus recovered in the U.S. is 61% deaths versus recovered (1988 deaths and 3299 recovered), meaning that 1 out of 2.5 people infected are dying. Nonetheless, since many who are recovering have not passed 2 weeks, they cannot be counted.

Either way though, the numbers are bad, especially in places like Italy where 10,000+ have died and only 12,500 recovered and there, the two week period of time is now in place.

What the final figure will be is not clear and cannot be evaluated correctly but given that 70% of the population will at some point get the virus (approximately 245 million) and 1 out of 5 are dying, it would suggest the number could be as high as 45 million.

As such, Calamity's number of 1 million, is actually quite "conservative".
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Contrary to your assertions, it is not impossible to estimate the number of deaths going forward. There is plenty of data to give realistic estimates.
 
Aristaeus said:
US alone, and that is a very conservative estimate. Looking at the rise of confirmed cases over the past two weeks, I fear 2-3,000 deaths per day in the US is more realistic in 3-4 weeks time.
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In 4 weeks we can revisit this post and see how accurate you were

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 
Metric Mouse said:
Contrary to your assertions, it is not impossible to estimate the number of deaths going forward. There is plenty of data to give realistic estimates.
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How so? Italy has a 10% death rate; Germany is at 0.7%. That's a factor of over 100 difference.

It's impossible to predict what will happen here except to say that we are far from peak. There is a very good chance that 1,000,000 older and already compromised people will die from this once the hospitals are overwhelmed.
 
calamity said:
How so? Italy has a 10% death rate; Germany is at 0.7%. That's a factor of over 100 difference.

It's impossible to predict what will happen here except to say that we are far from peak. There is a very good chance that 1,000,000 older and already compromised people will die from this once the hospitals are overwhelmed.
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Absolutely. Almost certainly 1 million, probably even twice that many.

45 times that? Not happening. Just throwing out random numbers is not helpful or accurate.
 
Metric Mouse said:
Absolutely. Almost certainly 1 million, probably even twice that many.

45 times that? Not happening. Just throwing out random numbers is not helpful or accurate.
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Looking at Italy, worst case so far: Just today: 6000 new cases, roughly 1000 new deaths.

US is already on a path to exceed the worst case scenarios in the olive country.
 
calamity said:
Looking at Italy, worst case so far: Just today: 6000 new cases, roughly 1000 new deaths.

US is already on a path to exceed the worst case scenarios in the olive country.
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Absolutely. We will see 5,000 deaths per day in about 2 weeks.

I'm not aware of any expert model that predicts 45 million dead.
 
Metric Mouse said:
Absolutely. We will see 5,000 deaths per day in about 2 weeks.

I'm not aware of any expert model that predicts 45 million dead.
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Maybe more now, since Trump is insisting on mailing 200 Million checks out with his signature on them instead of direct deposit.
 
Lord of Planar said:
The death rate is likely under 0.02%.
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I can't even start talking about how misguided this is. I'll just say what I said to the other denier here: come back to this thread in 3 weeks and we'll see if your idea will still hold water.
 
Metric Mouse said:
Absolutely. We will see 5,000 deaths per day in about 2 weeks.

I'm not aware of any expert model that predicts 45 million dead.
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It's not any expert model. It was a poster here who thought that recovered cases versus deceased cases was the way to calculate death rate, a gross mistake that I countered. He forgot to factor in the 114,000 active cases (116,000 by now).
 
calamity said:
Maybe more now, since Trump is insisting on mailing 200 Million checks out with his signature on them instead of direct deposit.
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How does this alter the death count? I'm confused.
 
GreatNews2night said:
It's not any expert model. It was a poster here who thought that recovered cases versus deceased cases was the way to calculate death rate, a gross mistake that I countered. He forgot to factor in the 114,000 active cases (116,000 by now).
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Precisely my point. I was responding to Calamity who claimed there was no way to estimate how many deaths will occur.
 
GreatNews2night said:
No, it doesn't mean that. It's just that people take weeks to recover. It doesn't mean that the ones who haven't recovered yet will die. There is no place on Earth where the case-fatality rate is 20% or even 40% like you are saying. Like I said, the estimates I find best are between 0.8 and 1.4%. I've been using the 0.8% figure in my calculations.

See, the "people infected" are not just the recovered ones versus the dead ones; it's also the ACTIVE cases, people who are confirmed to have the virus but haven't recovered yet. These, for the US right now, are 114,854. So, the CFR (case-fatality rate) is much lower than you are calculating, not to forget the likely huge number of people who are also active cases but don't know it because they have mild, asymptomatic infections and haven't been tested.

45 million? This will never happen. No way.

And it likely won't get the whole population. Harvard epidemiologists anticipate an infection rate of 40 to 70% of the world population over a full year and even that is likely to be too large a number. It won't be 100% because many people will efficiently isolate themselves or take precautions.
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I grant you all that you said. Nonetheless, using the numbers I gave, it still comes out to 45 million. If you want to cut that number by 90%, it still comes out to 4.5 million. If you want to cut that number by 5, it still comes out to a million.

My post was all about Calamity being conservative.

Check out these numbers and this article:

During a typical flu season, up to 500,000 people worldwide will die from the illness, according to WHO. But occasionally, when a new flu strain emerges, a pandemic results with a faster spread of disease and, often, higher mortality rates.

The most deadly flu pandemic, sometimes called the Spanish flu, began in 1918 and sickened up to 40% of the world's population, killing an estimated 50 million people.[/B]

"I think that it is possible that something like the 1918 flu outbreak could occur again," Muhlberger said. "If a new influenza strain found its way in the human population, and could be transmitted easily between humans, and caused severe illness, we would have a big problem."
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GreatNews2night said:
I can't even start talking about how misguided this is. I'll just say what I said to the other denier here: come back to this thread in 3 weeks and we'll see if your idea will still hold water.
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Thats fair.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 
These pandemic models are like global warming models. If you live in a model, youre screwed. If you live in the real world youll probably be ok.
 
calamity said:
Looking at Italy, worst case so far: Just today: 6000 new cases, roughly 1000 new deaths.

US is already on a path to exceed the worst case scenarios in the olive country.
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1700 deaths with 104,000 cases? We will see, but I don't think that's very accurate. Age of the people getting it and underlying conditions are the most relevant factors, and Italy has one of the highest median ages on the planet. Devil's advocate, so does Japan on the median age, but they are handling things pretty well by comparison.
 
uptower said:
The WHO, CDC, doctors, researchers and epidemiologists and other experts the news media refers to. 'They' will suffice as my fingers get tired. Or if you like, listen to Glenn Beck, Sean Hannity and some dude on Facebook who also thinks windmills give people cancer - I'm sure they know just as much.
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I steer away from your GOTO sources of Mika and Joe, Rachel Maddow and The View as possibly being biased. But, I imagine you feel all are entitled to be "reporters" and have a seat at press conferences.
 
Paradoxical said:
I steer away from your GOTO sources of Mika and Joe, Rachel Maddow and The View as possibly being biased. But, I imagine you feel all are entitled to be "reporters" and have a seat at press conferences.
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Here, right here, public health officials. People who know more than you or I and especially more than the president, who doesn't know his ass from his elbows.

Whine all you like about the bias of the newspaper or news site or TV station that publishes them, but they're still recording the words of people who understand the problem and these experts show us how little the president does.
 
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