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You don’t know how bad it is

sjmay said:
True, but I am asking your opinion, since you are a SBA who has employees,

Let's say this lasts til May, how will you be? July? September? etc?

People in here want people to believe that the jobs you have let go, are done forever, never coming back.

If you shut down and never open up another shop, they are right, though they would just re-enter a job market that would be roaring back....
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The people that I have let go will be brought back as business levels dictate. I furloughed them proportionately and I will bring them back the same way.

Before all of this started we were running about 220 jobs/day. Right now we're doing about 60... and I'm anticipating it will go down even from there for at least a little while. I HOPE that it come all the way back but it is not a given. Let's say this thing lifts in May and business comes back but starts to plateau at about 175 jobs/day. Guess what? There's going to be a few people that don't get their jobs back. It's a sad reality.
 
Jack Fabulous said:
The people that I have let go will be brought back as business levels dictate. I furloughed them proportionately and I will bring them back the same way.

Before all of this started we were running about 220 jobs/day. Right now we're doing about 60... and I'm anticipating it will go down even from there for at least a little while. I HOPE that it come all the way back but it is not a given. Let's say this thing lifts in May and business comes back but starts to plateau at about 175 jobs/day. Guess what? There's going to be a few people that don't get their jobs back. It's a sad reality.
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Fair enough, my point was, that, at some point, those jobs are coming back...either with you or another company etc, and business will dictate that....

220 jobs a day, WTF do you do? For some reason I had it in my head you were an ophthalmologist ??
 
sjmay said:
You are acting like life as you know it is ****ing over and there's no hope, everyone should slit their ****ing throat right now and get it over with quickly......
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When the **** did I suggest that?

I don't know what your agenda is to downplay the severity of this because I mean, I haven't even gotten into what this could do politically and socially to the world, especially if it coincides with AI and automation in more industry, not like that's still not bubbling under the surface and what all this stimulus spending and Central Bank action could do to inflation and price stability.

But, let's call it here, you've had your say, I've had mine and time will tell, but in my OP I stated two things I thought were about to happen.

That this was going to have a severe impact on the economy.

And that the number of Covid 19 cases was going to rise significantly.

I was right, on both accounts, what happens next, well, I suppose none of us really knows, but whats happened so far is not a good sign of things to come, at all and anyone who pretends otherwise is in my opinion out of their minds, optimism is one thing, bliss in ignorance is another.
 
sjmay said:
Of course it's going to come roaring back, depending on your definition of that.....unless you think unemployment of 50% is sustainable.....you want to talk about ****ing nuts?

The companies that are open now, being essentially, your food production, farms, household goods (cleaners, papers etc) they are not running at 100%, the amount of production has fell swiftly this past week and last, and doesn't look like it's gonna ramp up next week either.....

When this does blow over, they WILL BE ramping up to 100%, that means hiring more people, creating more jobs etc......That's just the companies that are open now...the ones that are closed......the ones that survive, will be hiring again, and the ones that don't survive, will either be reborn, or join the job market themselves.....
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When?? Got a time frame??
 
sjmay said:
Fair enough, my point was, that, at some point, those jobs are coming back...either with you or another company etc, and business will dictate that....

220 jobs a day, WTF do you do? For some reason I had it in my head you were an ophthalmologist ??
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I make the glasses for their patients.
 
Jack Fabulous said:
I make the glasses for their patients.
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Ok, locally I assume, trying to think of that online glass maker, warbly or wobbly or whatever the hell it is, that cut into your business at all?
 
Barnacle said:
Chances are pretty good you are.
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Let's point out that his post is from 3 week ago.

Since then, well, lockdowns, unemployment, thousands of deaths. If it wasn't for the lockdowns, the death rate would have been 4 times greater, and no end in site.
 
sjmay said:
Nope, kinda be stupid to give a time frame when it's not over eh?
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Would that not include how the economy recovers?
 
Barnacle said:
Liberal/progressive hysterics ... :roll:
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This really isnt a liberal/progressive OR a hysterical thing. At current condition we can probably expect 20-30 million people to lose their jobs, renters to not be able to pay landlords that may be relying on that income to pay THEIR bills, certainly a slow down if not an outright halt in manufacturing, some families wont receive unemployment benefits in time to pay life sustaining basics...the concern is very real.
 
sjmay said:
You say reading is fundamental, well **** ma'am, so is critical thinking, how many small business owners do you think there are in a 350 million population? 10?
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The discussion was about jobs, specifically the enormous number of unemployment claims, 17 million of 'em, in the past three weeks. I do not confuse small business owners with individuals they employ, jobs that no longer are available and the effect on America's unemployment rate. You apparently do. Discussion over; have a nice evening.
 
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sjmay said:
Ok, locally I assume, trying to think of that online glass maker, warbly or wobbly or whatever the hell it is, that cut into your business at all?
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Nah.

The prescription eyeglass industry is dominated globally by just a few corporations. On line places like Warbly are only capable of serving a small subset of customers who want cheap, single vision glasses and are only offered in a very narrow power range and the cheapest material.

Everybody else goes to an independent eye clinic or a retail chain like Lens Crafters, Pearl, Vision Works, etc... This is who we make glasses for.
 
TobyOne said:
Most are restaurant or hospitality. Those industries will come back.

Next time, we shouldn't listen to the histrionic left. Our economy would be better off. The "models" they use ended up being complete BS and here we are.
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I don't listen to the histrionic left. Why do you?
 
sjmay said:
No idea what you are talking about, clearly you are shook about something,

But to expect this not to affect the economy is wishful thinking, but to think that it's going to keep down the economy is fear mongering to me.

There isn't one industry that has not been affected by this....healthcare had to change the way they do things, etc......but there is also not one industry that can't come back from this.....

Take a company like Tyson Foods....let's say for ****s n giggles they have 50,000 employees before this all hit, but now, they let 20K go....and are operating at 50%......so yes, 20K employees hit unemployment, a hit to the economy, but when this blows through, and it will, does anyone think Tyson food is going to remain at 50%, no, they are going to go on a hiring spree, they will need people to work, and may hire more than 20K, who knows.

Point is, all the jobs that have stopped, will be coming back.....
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What has me worried about this assumption is the fact some small businesses may not weather the storm, so they won't be around to hire those people back. When one considers that small businesses do most of the hiring, the risk of many going under could have deep impacts to the prospect of re-employment. Large corporations will likely be ok because they'll reduce the workforce enough to keep the lights on, but when there's less consumption due to mass unemployment, they might not scale back as quickly.

I'm still optimistic that the economy will rebound fairly quickly, but that's dependent on variables we can't effectively predict yet. For our small business, we've already planned for what the new normal will look like, which is one of reduced profits due to slow scaling up of clients. I don't think there's a scenario where people magically resume normal activities lest there is readily available treatment and/or a vaccine.
 
VanceMack said:
This really isnt a liberal/progressive OR a hysterical thing. At current condition we can probably expect 20-30 million people to lose their jobs, renters to not be able to pay landlords that may be relying on that income to pay THEIR bills, certainly a slow down if not an outright halt in manufacturing, some families wont receive unemployment benefits in time to pay life sustaining basics...the concern is very real.
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The concern is very real ... the concern is with the totally over the top approach by the dems and progressives about literally shutting the country down ... and wanting to keep it shut down indefinitely while whining that the economy is suffering and people are losing their jobs.

What the hell did those people think would happen if people are forbidden to go to work?!?

Dr. Ben Carson: "... if we "destroy the economic infrastructure of our country," there will be more hardship than there has been from the virus itself.
"We can't operate out of hysteria," Carson said. "When people are hysterical they don't do logical things."


Liberal/progressive hysterics
 
sjmay said:
You're right, the MILLIONS of small business owners, who are going to get wrecked in this, they are just going to roll over and die....and go be a company person....because that's why they started a business....oh wait....you mean they will start up again?

You are doing a huge disservice against these small business owners.....
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Agreed. Money needs to be distributed to consumers, though. Preferably immediately.
 
Barnacle said:
The concern is very real ... the concern is with the totally over the top approach by the dems and progressives about literally shutting the country down ... and wanting to keep it shut down indefinitely while whining that the economy is suffering and people are losing their jobs.

What the hell did those people think would happen if people are forbidden to go to work?!?

Dr. Ben Carson: "... if we "destroy the economic infrastructure of our country," there will be more hardship than there has been from the virus itself.
"We can't operate out of hysteria," Carson said. "When people are hysterical they don't do logical things."


Liberal/progressive hysterics
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I think you are trying to compare dogs and oranges and coming up with dump trucks.

Yes...its economically devastating. But so is allowing the virus to spread unchecked. Until there is a vaccine or a 100% reliable treatment protocol, social isolation is the only truly proven method we have of stemming the spread of this and giving the scientists a fighting chance. How effective do you think a factory would be if the entire staff ended up sick?

This isnt desirable...its necessary. And heres the thing...no one is operating from a place of hysteria. Its not hysterical to put community safety practices in place. Its responsible.
 
It is obvious this virus kills and those who are the most vulnerable are the elderly and those with underlying health problems.

I can only speak about my state Ohio because that is what I have been following.

When Anthony Fauci, Deborah Birx etc. produced their first model the picture it painted was devastating. It was upon their first model governors started speculating how many people in their state at that time had the virus. Governor Dewine and his Ohio Health Director Amy Acton issued a warning that they believed we had at least 100,000 cases within the state of over 8 million people and it was on that model that the governor ordered all schools, colleges, universities closed, then all sporting, concert events, all restaurants and bars and banned all gatherings more than 10 people. Then he banned all gatherings and pretty much shut everything down except for needed services for survival. And then this week he ordered all grocery stores start practicing social distancing. Today it took people shopping about 2 hours in the store. They had blue lines 6 feet apart on the sidewalk outside the store. The line was very long. Since the beginning to now those models have been revised 4 times lowering their predictions each time immensely and by those numbers we in Ohio never had 100,000 active cases of the virus. It proves out after massive testing to date we have 5,515 confirmed cases. A far cry from 100,000. And the deaths in Ohio from the virus , 97% are from those over the age of 60 and many with underlying health conditions.

We are talking Medicare persons which I am one. It seems to me shutting everything down and taking people's livelihoods away is criminal. My suggestion is since the greatest at risk are Medicare persons, let Medicare provide each individual with the respirator masks, hand sanitizer and gloves to go out to get what they need being protected and let everyone else get on with life. Because this ain't living.

The shutdown has managed to stop the healthcare systems from being overloaded for most of the country. But this can not continue. Protect the vulnerable and let everyone else get back to living.
 
sjmay said:
This, no one is saying there isn't going to be damage economically, but the OP is literally the definition of chicken little.... but as you said, the mechanisms, are sound, at least, to me they are....there absolutely will be tweaks to it....but for the most part, it works.
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Today I read several articles about the travel industry and how devastating COVID-19 has been for them. It's one industry but it is a good example of what people here are trying to explain to you.

Boeing has shut all its plants. Delta has parked about 50% of its fleet. Air travel is down by approximately 90%. That means fewer people working at airports; TSA, foodservice in air terminals and on-board flights, less soft drinks and less alcohol is being purchased, which means fewer deliveries, fewer servers, cooks and bartenders, and fewer in-flight food preparation.

With fewer flights less aircraft mechanics and refueling personnel are needed, less avionics specialists, less air crew are required, less reservationists are needed. Far fewer people are booking flights than were 4 months ago. Far fewer airport maintenance and house keeping are needed now. Fewer people are renting cars. There are fewer people who work in reservations, who provide vehicle maintenance and repair. Air traffic control, engineers, airport police are much fewer in number now. The list is endless.

Hotels are almost dead. From executives to housekeeping people have lost their jobs everywhere in the hotel industry in America. Just as with airlines the suppliers for the hotel industry are hurting big time. Businesses who supply hotels, sales and distribution and rail and trucking are hurting. Warehouses are sitting on inventory they can't sell.

I'm barely scratching the surface concerning that one industry alone. Many, many, many of the people who were employed as part of the travel industry are on the street looking for work.

I'm here to tell you when this pandemic is finally over the travel industry is in no way going to flip a switch and have everyone return to pre-pandemic employment. There is a big likelihood the travel industry will never be the same for decades, if ever.

That is one industry and we barely even covered it. Boeing alone employed 166,000 people. Millions of people in travel-related employment may be permanently out of work.

The world is not going to return to 100% of what it once was in your lifetime nor mine. Not even close.
 
The Democratic Party: The party of doom and gloom, changing from trying to terrify people with environmental terrorism to bio-terrorism - anything to terrify as many people as possible and fill them with hate. Environmental terrorism didn't work with young people, so now they are going everything possible to terrify old people - and doing everything possible to make it come true - including harms as many people as possible in every possible way.
 
Jetboogieman said:
Ok.

I can’t be too specific here and you can call it anecdotal if you want, but I’m not here to play politics tonight.

I had an extremely sobering experience today the likes of which I have never had in my life, I actually have tears in my eyes writing this.

If you had seen and heard what I have over the past 12 hours you would freak the **** out and I’m largely speaking economically here, I can tell you that I don’t watch cable news but the written media which I do read constantly, if you think they’re being sensationalist, I can tell you they’re barely scratching the surface of what’s happening on the ground, they’re so focused on the stock market that everyone is missing what is happening at the ground level in the economy.

If I’m having the conversations I’m having, everyone up and down the economy in almost every sector are having similar ones and the ripple effects of what is about to happen I’m telling you, it is going to be catastrophic, so catastrophic that no single government can contain how bad this is going to get, even if weather plays a role the fact is that we may still have months ahead of us of this thing and in that time the damage will be enormous.

Today has shocked me to my core like you wouldn’t believe and medically look, I’m not an expert but with some of the stories we are hearing and seeing, the numbers in the next couple of weeks may very well explode in North America, both Canada and the United States.

I tell you this not to be sensationalist, I tell you this not to be scaremongering, I tell you this not to “Get Trump”, I tell you this because what I heard and saw today was so shocking I had to say something that if even one of you are more prepared for what’s coming than I’ve done something positive because I want to be wrong, I wanna laugh about this in a years time at this post and think how silly I was, but I won’t soon forget what happened today and how worried I am for the well being of my family in a way I’ve never felt before.

Remember, I want to be wrong.
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I don't believe you. From your messages it seems that is exactly what you hope as a political tactic against President Trump.
 
VanceMack said:
I think you are trying to compare dogs and oranges and coming up with dump trucks.

Yes...its economically devastating. But so is allowing the virus to spread unchecked. Until there is a vaccine or a 100% reliable treatment protocol, social isolation is the only truly proven method we have of stemming the spread of this and giving the scientists a fighting chance. How effective do you think a factory would be if the entire staff ended up sick?

This isnt desirable...its necessary. And heres the thing...no one is operating from a place of hysteria. Its not hysterical to put community safety practices in place. Its responsible.
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Which is actually the definition of hysteria.

We knew early on (from Italy) that the Coronavirus is the most aggressive with old people; later on we added "especially the ones with underlying problems".

We tested so far 2.5 million, of which 1/5 tested positive for the virus but that doesn't mean they all exhibit symptoms, let alone occupy a hospital bed.
The death rate is presently 50 per 1 million and I believe will go much lower the more people get tested.

I tend to believe Dr. Carson when he says: "... between one-quarter and one-half of all people infected with coronavirus are asymptomatic. ... not enough public attention is being paid to "the number of people who have recovered" from coronavirus" -- which Carson said "is going to be about 98 percent of all the people who get it."

Chances are zero that the majority - let alone the whole staff - of an entire factory ends up sick ... unless all the workers are old and/or with underlying health problems.
 
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