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What do you forecast as the outcome of COVID-19? (please see OP for details)

What do you forecast as the outcome of COVID-19? (please see OP for details)

  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .
COTO

COTO

Panthera Uncia
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Based on what you know today about COVID-19, what do you believe is the most likely outcome of the pandemic (in America)?

Please pick one (and only one) answer from the three "life" options. Please also pick one (and only one) answer from the three "economy" options. Hence your response should have exactly two options checked.


Life Options

life devastating - the human toll of the virus in America will most likely be high (> 50% infected; > 2.5% mortality) [equivalent: > 4 million dead]

life moderate - the human toll of the virus in America will most likely be moderate (7.5-49.9% infected; 1.0-2.4% mortality) [equivalent: 25,000-3.99 million dead]

life mild - the human toll of the virus in America will most likely be low (< 7.5% infected; < 1.0% mortality) [equivalent: < 25,000 dead]


Economy Options

economically devastating - the full economic costs of the virus in America will likely exceed USD 800 billion (in industry disruption, productivity losses, sustained market losses, etc.)

economically moderate - the full economic costs of the virus will likely range from USD 200-799 billion

economically mild - the full economic costs of the virus will be less than USD 200 billion
 
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We don't want the light blue curve, we want the dark blue curve. We want to slow the spread so that the number of patients don't overwhelm our medical facilities.

How do you help? Keep at least a 6 foot distance between you and everyone else. It's spread by coughing. The particles have about a 3 foot reach.

If we can stay in the dark blue curve, the impact will be mild. If we stray into the light blue curve, the impact will be heavy.
 
COTO said:
Based on what you know today about COVID-19, what do you believe is the most likely outcome of the pandemic (in America)?

Please pick one (and only one) answer from the three "life" options. Please also pick one (and only one) answer from the three "economy" options. Hence your response should have exactly two options checked.


Life Options

life devastating - the human toll of the virus in America will most likely be high (> 50% infected; > 2.5% mortality) [equivalent: > 4 million dead]

life moderate - the human toll of the virus in America will most likely be moderate (7.5-49.9% infected; 1.0-2.4% mortality) [equivalent: 25,000-3.99 million dead]

life mild - the human toll of the virus in America will most likely be low (< 7.5% infected; < 1.0% mortality) [equivalent: < 25,000 dead]


Economy Options

economically devastating - the full economic costs of the virus in America will likely exceed USD 800 billion (in industry disruption, productivity losses, sustained market losses, etc.)

economically moderate - the full economic costs of the virus will likely range from USD 200-799 billion

economically mild - the full economic costs of the virus will be less than USD 200 billion
Click to expand...

Bottom line, we're all going to die unless Trump is removed from office today and a qualified Democrat with a compelling life story is selected to replace him.
 
swing_voter said:
If we can stay in the dark blue curve, the impact will be mild. If we stray into the light blue curve, the impact will be heavy.
Click to expand...
I'm more interested in which curve you think the US is going to follow.
 
Lutherf said:
Bottom line, we're all going to die unless Trump is removed from office today and a qualified Democrat with a compelling life story is selected to replace him.
Click to expand...

So true!
 
Lutherf said:
Bottom line, we're all going to die unless Trump is removed from office today and a qualified Democrat with a compelling life story is selected to replace him.
Click to expand...
I'm expecting that most Democrats will tend towards the "devastating" end of the spectrum and most Republicans will tend towards the "mild" end of the spectrum, but I honestly don't know.

That's what I'm curious about.

Hopefully we'll get a good number of responses to get an accurate picture of where the board stands overall.
 
swing_voter said:
We don't want the light blue curve, we want the dark blue curve. We want to slow the spread so that the number of patients don't overwhelm our medical facilities.

How do you help? Keep at least a 6 foot distance between you and everyone else. It's spread by coughing. The particles have about a 3 foot reach.

If we can stay in the dark blue curve, the impact will be mild. If we stray into the light blue curve, the impact will be heavy.
Click to expand...

How do you know that we're not already smack in the middle of the light blue curve? Everything I'm reading says that we have no way of knowing how many are already infected.We have no way of knowing if this thing will mutate...or has mutated and we don't even know it yet! The unknown is totally unknowable and we could well all be on our way to a painful, lonely death.

That is, we could all be on our way to immediate death unless we get rid of Trump and, out of sheer necessity, those who support him. If we don't take action today we could well cause the extermination of the planet!
 
Its not gonna kill a lot of people, but its going to kill our economy.
 
COTO said:
Based on what you know today about COVID-19, what do you believe is the most likely outcome of the pandemic (in America)?

Please pick one (and only one) answer from the three "life" options. Please also pick one (and only one) answer from the three "economy" options. Hence your response should have exactly two options checked.


Life Options

life devastating - the human toll of the virus in America will most likely be high (> 50% infected; > 2.5% mortality) [equivalent: > 4 million dead]

life moderate - the human toll of the virus in America will most likely be moderate (7.5-49.9% infected; 1.0-2.4% mortality) [equivalent: 25,000-3.99 million dead]

life mild - the human toll of the virus in America will most likely be low (< 7.5% infected; < 1.0% mortality) [equivalent: < 25,000 dead]


Economy Options

economically devastating - the full economic costs of the virus in America will likely exceed USD 800 billion (in industry disruption, productivity losses, sustained market losses, etc.)

economically moderate - the full economic costs of the virus will likely range from USD 200-799 billion

economically mild - the full economic costs of the virus will be less than USD 200 billion
Click to expand...

I don’t think anyone knows. I don’t want to speculate.
 
When I read all the hysteria associated with this, I worry about mass panic more than covid. No, I am not taking this lightly, I am not nonchalant about it at all. We personally do what makes sense, we are a bit more careful where we go, wash our hands more often...
But again and again, thread after thread, post after post, reporting all day, speculating, discussing, partisan jokeys grandstanding, 24 hrs TV obsession, it make me worry about the sanity of those around me.
Listen to the daily update by Dr. Birx, Seema Verma and Dr. Fauci. Why would they risk their hard earned reputation by misleading us? Tune out the hysterics, listen to the professionals.
 
The pandemic won't do much harm...well, except for the people who die.

But the people who are panicking...well, there is no limit to the harm THEY can...and will...do.
 
Well about 20% of the population gets the flu every year and we have a vaccine for that and some natural immunity.

With no vaccine and no natural immunity i would say 40 to 60 percent of the population gets infected and with a 5% death rate it will be pretty bad.

If it spreads as predicted the impact to the economy will be disastrous
 
Lutherf said:
Bottom line, we're all going to die unless Trump is removed from office today and a qualified Democrat with a compelling life story is selected to replace him.
Click to expand...

So not Biden.
 
Lutherf said:
I don't know. I'm sure that someone at the DNC has the chops to write a nice, compelling bio for Biden.
Click to expand...
Well of course.

But the question is whether it will actually be compelling.


And I was more concerned about the "qualified" part.

To point a point on it, competence.
 
Panicked liberals are ensuring that toilet paper futures will remain strong. That much I know.
 
rickc said:
With no vaccine and no natural immunity i would say 40 to 60 percent of the population gets infected and with a 5% death rate it will be pretty bad.
Click to expand...
I think the rising seas will drown us first.
 
Lutherf said:
Bottom line, we're all going to die unless Trump is removed from office today and a qualified Democrat with a compelling life story is selected to replace him.
Click to expand...

Well, at least you got one part correct: "Bottom line, we're all going to die", that's the cycle of life of all living things. Not sure about the rest of your statement, you state you are conservative so am I to assume the rest is tongue in cheek?
 
I think the majority of us will get the virus, however, I don't think it's going to be as deadly as the flu. The economy crashing makes me more nervous than getting the virus. With that said, I'm fairly healthy with no underlying health risks, so my chance of not recovering is pretty low.
 
Lutherf said:
I don't know. I'm sure that someone at the DNC has the chops to write a nice, compelling bio for Biden.
Click to expand...

Regarding the virus, it is too late. The wheels are in motion and there will be a trainwreck. We just don't know the timing or the magnitude. There is no deus ex machina. And, if there is one it won't be Biden. However, maybe - only maybe - if someone other than Trump is in the White House in January the damage could be mitigated.

My hope would be that Trump's replacement would LEAD and would appoint qualified and accomplished full cabinet secretaries and agency heads, not acting positions. No butt kissers, media clowns, and Wall Street chancers. Even with ass-kickers and name takers empowered and encouraged to put politics aside and get the job done it would take time.
 
COTO said:
I'm expecting that most Democrats will tend towards the "devastating" end of the spectrum and most Republicans will tend towards the "mild" end of the spectrum, but I honestly don't know.

That's what I'm curious about.

Hopefully we'll get a good number of responses to get an accurate picture of where the board stands overall.
Click to expand...

When smart ass republicans would take all this seriously, we could recover a lot faster. The congressional physician's office (Non Partitisan-They treat both sides of the isle) testified today that in their estimation 75 to 150 million would catch the virus in America.

That sounds serious to me. Very frankly, I don't trust anything coming from the WH. After the WH has been bragging of the millions of tests out there, a congressional delegation from North Carolina wrote Mike Pence today and asked why they can't get any more tests.

You tell me who's dropping the ball? I am not sure, but when you have a WH that concerns itself with economic stimulus instead of American health, Houston, we have a problem.

If Trump was so worried about his supporters, he would cancel or postpone his upcoming rallies. He has indicated more than once, he's not worried about it. I hope he catches it at a rally and suffers like he's never suffered before. He deserves it. Maybe we'll get lucky and he'll be taken out of the discussion for a long time.
 
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It's just the common cold virus on steroids. The human race will survive this and thanks to Elon Musk colonize Mars one day. I'm not saying you shouldn't take precautions but don't let the media trick you into thinking you need to buy toilet paper by the case. Hell of a good time to be investing in the stock market.
 
Sabre said:
Well, at least you got one part correct: "Bottom line, we're all going to die", that's the cycle of life of all living things. Not sure about the rest of your statement, you state you are conservative so am I to assume the rest is tongue in cheek?
Click to expand...

It was absolutely oozing with sarcasm.
 
lemmiwinx said:
It's just the common cold virus on steroids. The human race will survive this and thanks to Elon Musk colonize Mars one day. I'm not saying you shouldn't take precautions but don't let the media trick you into thinking you need to buy toilet paper by the case. Hell of a good time to be investing in the stock market.
Click to expand...

The media hasn't tricked me into doing anything. I've known Trump was a fraud from day one. Face the facts MAGA heads, your guy is not up to this challenge. And since he gutted the Pandemic task force set up by Obama, we were behind the curve since this started.

But we have a [Space Force].:lamo
 
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