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Thread: Recovery rate vs. death rate

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    Recovery rate vs. death rate

    This is encouraging...

    Canada Coronavirus: 8,467 Cases and 95 Deaths - Worldometer

    Scroll down to the graphs. The bottom one plots recovery vs. deaths on the same graph. Ten days ago the death rate was higher than the recovery rate but now the recovery rate is climbing back up.
    Maybe if we can maintain the protocols we can round the corner on this.
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    Can't keep FUBAR'n the economy if their a vaccine.

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    Re: Recovery rate vs. death rate

    Quote Originally Posted by Grand Mal View Post
    This is encouraging...

    Canada Coronavirus: 8,467 Cases and 95 Deaths - Worldometer

    Scroll down to the graphs. The bottom one plots recovery vs. deaths on the same graph. Ten days ago the death rate was higher than the recovery rate but now the recovery rate is climbing back up.
    Maybe if we can maintain the protocols we can round the corner on this.
    I think the death rate is skewed to appear higher than it's going to end up being because those who are going to die of CV-19 probably do so quicker than those who will eventually recover. The active serious case percentage of 2% is probably closer to what the final tally will be.
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    Re: Recovery rate vs. death rate

    Quote Originally Posted by stevecanuck View Post
    I think the death rate is skewed to appear higher than it's going to end up being because those who are going to die of CV-19 probably do so quicker than those who will eventually recover. The active serious case percentage of 2% is probably closer to what the final tally will be.
    I've been looking for a breakdown by province of the fatality rate per infection. I'm kind of curious how it might compare to smoking, this being a respiratory thing.
    Too much time on my hands, that's why.
    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    Can't keep FUBAR'n the economy if their a vaccine.

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    Re: Recovery rate vs. death rate

    Grand Mal:

    The recovery rate is actually far higher than the death rate. The recovery rate posted by the Canadian Government is based only on the most serious infections where the host required hospitalisation or para-medical care and hospital-levels of medical intervention. Far more people who are striken with the virus are asymptomatic, have mild symptoms and just stay home or have more serious but manageable symptoms which they ride out at home. The death rates however include all persons who died whether they were hospitalised or not. The true recovery rate is thus much higher, by a factor of 5 - 6 times I would estimate.

    Cheers.
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    Re: Recovery rate vs. death rate

    Quote Originally Posted by stevecanuck View Post
    I think the death rate is skewed to appear higher than it's going to end up being because those who are going to die of CV-19 probably do so quicker than those who will eventually recover. The active serious case percentage of 2% is probably closer to what the final tally will be.
    Official deaths rates are skewed downwards due to one needs to have been tested for C19, die from it, to be recorded as caused by C19

    Same thing in the US, Italy and other countries
    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    He didn't go to school for COVID-19
    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    Can't keep FUBAR'n the economy if their a vaccine

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    Re: Recovery rate vs. death rate

    Quote Originally Posted by Evilroddy View Post
    Grand Mal:

    The recovery rate is actually far higher than the death rate. The recovery rate posted by the Canadian Government is based only on the most serious infections where the host required hospitalisation or para-medical care and hospital-levels of medical intervention. Far more people who are striken with the virus are asymptomatic, have mild symptoms and just stay home or have more serious but manageable symptoms which they ride out at home. The death rates however include all persons who died whether they were hospitalised or not. The true recovery rate is thus much higher, by a factor of 5 - 6 times I would estimate.

    Cheers.
    Evilroddy.
    Post 5
    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    He didn't go to school for COVID-19
    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    Can't keep FUBAR'n the economy if their a vaccine

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    Re: Recovery rate vs. death rate

    Quote Originally Posted by JANFU View Post
    Official deaths rates are skewed downwards due to one needs to have been tested for C19, die from it, to be recorded as caused by C19

    Same thing in the US, Italy and other countries
    Good point. Can a person who has died be given a postmortem test to see if they had it? And if so, can it be determined if they died OF it, or WITH it? Also, are such tests being done?
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    Re: Recovery rate vs. death rate

    Quote Originally Posted by stevecanuck View Post
    Good point. Can a person who has died be given a postmortem test to see if they had it? And if so, can it be determined if they died OF it, or WITH it? Also, are such tests being done?
    From what I get to hear a swab (even on a fresh corpse) will still determine the virus' existence or its absence, underlying previous conditions (i.e. lungs previously affected by whatever) can only be established by autopsy or (providing such records exist) the deceased's medical history.

    I strongly suspect that hospitals currently already working at their limits are not going to jump thru the hoops of performing numerous autopsies just right now.

    So there will probably be a certain blurring in that respect.
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    Re: Recovery rate vs. death rate

    Quote Originally Posted by stevecanuck View Post
    Good point. Can a person who has died be given a postmortem test to see if they had it? And if so, can it be determined if they died OF it, or WITH it? Also, are such tests being done?
    Hospital labs are overwhelmed.

    So no

    This came to my attention from reports I read from Italy.

    Been following this since China / WHO announced it

    The other stats are nursing homes, people who have mild symptoms, health degrades quickly mostly at night, die at home

    What stats are showing is how the bodies immune system can go into hyper drive and attack organs, heart to liver

    There are drugs for that, immune suppressors.

    Key to that is quickly recognizing it

    From the link- happens to approx 15 % of patients
    The Coronavirus Patients Betrayed by Their Own Immune Systems - The New York Times
    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    He didn't go to school for COVID-19
    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    Can't keep FUBAR'n the economy if their a vaccine

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    Re: Recovery rate vs. death rate

    Quote Originally Posted by JANFU View Post
    Post 5
    JANFU:

    Good point, in fact a very good point which I missed. Thanks for bringing it to my attention. But short of doing postmortem tissue biopsies on everybody who dies under suspicious circumstances and freezing them for future testing after the crisis is over, how can we know how significant the hidden Covid-19 death toll is? Right now and for the next while medical and testing resources are stretched too thin saving lives to get a more accurate picture of these hidden Covid-19 deaths. But in the coming months maybe we will learn the answer to your very good point.

    Cheers.
    Evilroddy.
    "At the heart of quantum mechanics is a rule that sometimes governs politicians or CEOs - as long as no one is watching, anything goes.
    ― Lawrence M. Krauss

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