Recovery rate vs. death rate

[Grand Mal]

This is encouraging...

Canada Coronavirus: 8,467 Cases and 95 Deaths - Worldometer

Scroll down to the graphs. The bottom one plots recovery vs. deaths on the same graph. Ten days ago the death rate was higher than the recovery rate but now the recovery rate is climbing back up.
Maybe if we can maintain the protocols we can round the corner on this.

 

[stevecanuck]

This is encouraging...

Canada Coronavirus: 8,467 Cases and 95 Deaths - Worldometer

Scroll down to the graphs. The bottom one plots recovery vs. deaths on the same graph. Ten days ago the death rate was higher than the recovery rate but now the recovery rate is climbing back up.
Maybe if we can maintain the protocols we can round the corner on this.

I think the death rate is skewed to appear higher than it's going to end up being because those who are going to die of CV-19 probably do so quicker than those who will eventually recover. The active serious case percentage of 2% is probably closer to what the final tally will be.

 

[Grand Mal]

I think the death rate is skewed to appear higher than it's going to end up being because those who are going to die of CV-19 probably do so quicker than those who will eventually recover. The active serious case percentage of 2% is probably closer to what the final tally will be.

I've been looking for a breakdown by province of the fatality rate per infection. I'm kind of curious how it might compare to smoking, this being a respiratory thing.
Too much time on my hands, that's why.

 

[Evilroddy]

Grand Mal:

The recovery rate is actually far higher than the death rate. The recovery rate posted by the Canadian Government is based only on the most serious infections where the host required hospitalisation or para-medical care and hospital-levels of medical intervention. Far more people who are striken with the virus are asymptomatic, have mild symptoms and just stay home or have more serious but manageable symptoms which they ride out at home. The death rates however include all persons who died whether they were hospitalised or not. The true recovery rate is thus much higher, by a factor of 5 - 6 times I would estimate.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

 

[JANFU]

I think the death rate is skewed to appear higher than it's going to end up being because those who are going to die of CV-19 probably do so quicker than those who will eventually recover. The active serious case percentage of 2% is probably closer to what the final tally will be.

Official deaths rates are skewed downwards due to one needs to have been tested for C19, die from it, to be recorded as caused by C19

Same thing in the US, Italy and other countries

 

[JANFU]

Grand Mal:

The recovery rate is actually far higher than the death rate. The recovery rate posted by the Canadian Government is based only on the most serious infections where the host required hospitalisation or para-medical care and hospital-levels of medical intervention. Far more people who are striken with the virus are asymptomatic, have mild symptoms and just stay home or have more serious but manageable symptoms which they ride out at home. The death rates however include all persons who died whether they were hospitalised or not. The true recovery rate is thus much higher, by a factor of 5 - 6 times I would estimate.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

Post 5

 

[stevecanuck]

Official deaths rates are skewed downwards due to one needs to have been tested for C19, die from it, to be recorded as caused by C19

Same thing in the US, Italy and other countries

Good point. Can a person who has died be given a postmortem test to see if they had it? And if so, can it be determined if they died OF it, or WITH it? Also, are such tests being done?

 

[Chagos]

Good point. Can a person who has died be given a postmortem test to see if they had it? And if so, can it be determined if they died OF it, or WITH it? Also, are such tests being done?

From what I get to hear a swab (even on a fresh corpse) will still determine the virus' existence or its absence, underlying previous conditions (i.e. lungs previously affected by whatever) can only be established by autopsy or (providing such records exist) the deceased's medical history.

I strongly suspect that hospitals currently already working at their limits are not going to jump thru the hoops of performing numerous autopsies just right now.

So there will probably be a certain blurring in that respect.

 

[JANFU]

Good point. Can a person who has died be given a postmortem test to see if they had it? And if so, can it be determined if they died OF it, or WITH it? Also, are such tests being done?

Hospital labs are overwhelmed.

So no

This came to my attention from reports I read from Italy.

Been following this since China / WHO announced it

The other stats are nursing homes, people who have mild symptoms, health degrades quickly mostly at night, die at home

What stats are showing is how the bodies immune system can go into hyper drive and attack organs, heart to liver

There are drugs for that, immune suppressors.

Key to that is quickly recognizing it

From the link- happens to approx 15 % of patients
The Coronavirus Patients Betrayed by Their Own Immune Systems - The New York Times

 

[Evilroddy]

Post 5

JANFU:

Good point, in fact a very good point which I missed. Thanks for bringing it to my attention. But short of doing postmortem tissue biopsies on everybody who dies under suspicious circumstances and freezing them for future testing after the crisis is over, how can we know how significant the hidden Covid-19 death toll is? Right now and for the next while medical and testing resources are stretched too thin saving lives to get a more accurate picture of these hidden Covid-19 deaths. But in the coming months maybe we will learn the answer to your very good point.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

 

[JANFU]

JANFU:

Good point, in fact a very good point which I missed. Thanks for bringing it to my attention. But short of doing postmortem tissue biopsies on everybody who dies under suspicious circumstances and freezing them for future testing after the crisis is over, how can we know how significant the hidden Covid-19 death toll is? Right now and for the next while medical and testing resources are stretched too thin saving lives to get a more accurate picture of these hidden Covid-19 deaths. But in the coming months maybe we will learn the answer to your very good point.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

Another hurdle to pass after mass testing is available to all Canadians, is blood samples / testing to see who has been infected.

Italy has been chatting about Immunity Certificates, which clears those infected, have the anti bodies and can resume work

Questions arise over how long these antibodies are viable??

C19 is not going away. It has spread to every population. Fauci motioned it could result in seasonal outbreaks.

Possibly yes, but I see 1 large issue is literally clearing residents block by block.

Those that had it, cleared, those that did not stay at home. Massive mobilization of staff to test people- I have problems with people performing and doing their own tests- do not trust them to finagle with blond samples tests as mentioned in the link


Then we have secondary infections, yet to come.

Next I think people traveling into Canada will need to have such an immunity certificate

World travels will be severely interrupted due to outbreaks yet to ravage poor countries

India- 1.3 B on lock down and no social safety nets. None

Now to refugee camps for Syrian refugees - Turkey-Greece- Lebanon and inside Syria

Iran is lying about their numbers and there is significant travel between Iran-Iraq -Syria-Lebanon

My opinion, millions will die from C19

An at-home fingerprick blood test may help detect your exposure to coronavirus

Americans may soon be able to learn if they've ever been infected with COVID-19 with a prick of their finger and a smartphone — and without having to leave their homes.

A Los Angeles digital healthcare company called Scanwell Health is seeking U.S. government clearance for a kit that lets users submit a scanned image of a blood test to doctors via their phones. Within a few hours, according to the company, the user will learn whether the blood contains antibodies for coronavirus.

"The entire testing process happens at home," says Scanwell Chief Medical Officer Jack Jeng, "No specimen has to be shipped back."

A positive test result means a patient has been exposed to COVID-19 at some point in the past and has developed antibodies to fight it.

 

[Robertinfremont]

This is encouraging...

Canada Coronavirus: 8,467 Cases and 95 Deaths - Worldometer

Scroll down to the graphs. The bottom one plots recovery vs. deaths on the same graph. Ten days ago the death rate was higher than the recovery rate but now the recovery rate is climbing back up.
Maybe if we can maintain the protocols we can round the corner on this.

That is a bit worse than what we have here in Idaho. Canada is a bit over 1 percent and we are a bit under 1 percent death rate.

 

[Grand Mal]

That is a bit worse than what we have here in Idaho. Canada is a bit over 1 percent and we are a bit under 1 percent death rate.

The death rate is worst in high-density cities. Comparing Canada, including Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver to Idaho is like comparing the USA to Saskatchewan. Is there a city in Idaho with a half-million people? A quarter million? The population density of Idaho is probably not much more than the remote island I live on.
Canada has a covid death rate of 9 per million. The US rate is 32. But even that is nearly meaningless because of the high density of NYC skewing the average.
Of course, listening to the rightards here would make you think that's because NYC has Democrats in the city government. You never said anything like that, did you? Have you ever said the virus was worse someplace because of leftists or liberals or Democrats? Because if you have it would forever disqualify your opinions for thoughtful consideration.

 

[JANFU]

The death rate is worst in high-density cities. Comparing Canada, including Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver to Idaho is like comparing the USA to Saskatchewan. Is there a city in Idaho with a half-million people? A quarter million? The population density of Idaho is probably not much more than the remote island I live on.
Canada has a covid death rate of 9 per million. The US rate is 32. But even that is nearly meaningless because of the high density of NYC skewing the average.
Of course, listening to the rightards here would make you think that's because NYC has Democrats in the city government. You never said anything like that, did you? Have you ever said the virus was worse someplace because of leftists or liberals or Democrats? Because if you have it would forever disqualify your opinions for thoughtful consideration.

Pls add
No soup for you
Thank you

 

[2BInTO]

This is encouraging...

Scroll down to the graphs. The bottom one plots recovery vs. deaths on the same graph. Ten days ago the death rate was higher than the recovery rate but now the recovery rate is climbing back up.
Maybe if we can maintain the protocols we can round the corner on this.

Coronavirus deaths and severe cases by age: What we know - Vox

The death rate is completely skewed as the denominator is unknown- it is likely much much lower.

YouTube

I would really like to understand this notion of 'round the corner'. what is the end game anyway. from what i have been told INSIDE, the hospitals are not busy, medical staff are simply preparing for 'the surge'. complications from the disease seem to be very targeted basically the elderly and preconditions- the rest of us just get sick. unfortunately lockdown was required to change behaviour and prepare the hospitals. i see no reason for an EXTENDED lockdown. poverty and despair cost lives also, today and tomorrow. this is lives vs lives decision not a lives vs $ decision. most lack the perspective that the flu causes about 50k lives in the US and 200-400k globally per annum.