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Thread: Alberta's new budget is a head scratcher

  1. #11
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    Re: Alberta's new budget is a head scratcher

    Quote Originally Posted by COTO View Post
    And here I thought "not going bankrupt" was pragmatic.

    Liberals.

    Tax. Spend. Tax. Spend. Tax. Spend. Oh look! Our debt is blotting out the sun. How about that?

    Tax. Spend. Tax. Spend. Tax. Spend. ...
    Liberals. The previous Liberal administration brought in 8 or 9 successive surplus budgets, which was followed by the Harper Conservatives putting us back solidly in the red. And our debt-toGDP would be the envy of lots of bigger economies than ours, including the one to the south. Even now, Trudeau would have to work harder at it to equal the budget deficits the Conservatives saddled us with.
    Better a sister in a whore-house than a brother in the Conservative Party.

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    Re: Alberta's new budget is a head scratcher

    Quote Originally Posted by Evilroddy View Post
    COTO:

    Cut the lavish subsidies to the oil industry and the deficit is mostly fixed. Then make more careful cuts to the rest of Government spending. Increase well-head taxes/royalties for oil and tar sands production and offset these higher costs by charging the Americans more for crude oil which they are refining and exporting for their own profit. Build one or more refineries in Western Canada and ship refined oil to the rest of Canada keeping the value added in Alberta. Diversify the Prairie economy with new energy technologies (solar, wind, wood pulp fuel, bio fuel), better agricultural practices, biotechnology and bio-engineering and bio-industrial development, sylviculture, and old-fashioned infrastructure building as an economically vibrant gateway to the north. Boost immigration to the West so that the Western population grows and off-sets the demographic dominance of the central Canadian population. Make Alberta and the Prairies hum.

    Cheers.
    Evilroddy.
    First of all, even if we take every last dime given to the oil industry, including funding for research, funding for cleaner environmental practices, transcontinental shipping (due to the stalled pipelines), and royalty breaks/capital incentives in line with other major Alberta industries (also, in line with literally every other oil-producing state or province in North America), we only get to $2.2 billion. The 2018-2019 deficit is shaping up to be $6.7 billion, hence sticking it to Big Oil isn't going to "mostly fix" anything.

    Royalty costs can't be offset "by charging the Americans more for crude oil" because, like it or not, we live in a global economy. Uncle Sam is more than happy to get his oil from OPEC, Russia, or anywhere else he pleases. In fact, Hollywood has done such a hit job on Alberta in its crusade against oil that Alberta is bordering on "lucky" the US still takes the stuff from us. It used to be we could reason with people, "This oil is cleaner, safer, more responsibly extracted, and more ethical than oil you'll find anywhere else on Earth," but the Hollywood hit squad snuffed out that advantage post haste.

    Building refineries in Western Canada is a good idea, but as someone who has relatives in the industry, I can tell you with authority that it's far more easily said than done. It requires huge amounts of capital (and guess where 92% of North America's capital comes from: it starts with a "U" and ends with an "SA"), it faces all kinds of social and environmental hurdles, and it's risky due to the cyclical nature of O/G prices.

    I suppose the government could invest some of the capital needed in building the refineries, but... oop... there's a few billion more in O&G subsidies they can't afford.

    Diversification is important, but balanced budgets are more important at this cosmic moment in time. If you can accomplish the former while satisfying the latter, more power to you.

    Finally, immigration only gets things "humming" if the people immigrating are producing more than they're consuming from the public sector. How does one ensure this is the case? By making sure one's budget is balanced with a modest tax load. As long as people are willing to immigrate with modest taxes and social services cut back to a level that doesn't run a deficit, immigrate away.

    Quote Originally Posted by Carjosse View Post
    Because that is what the spending side of the budget consists of, tax cuts and subsidies for the oil industry.
    I'm not seeing anything significant related to either in the CBC article. Which bullet point are these cuts and subsidies hidden in?

    Quote Originally Posted by Carjosse View Post
    Alberta is currently underutilizing it's tax base.


    Props for finding a diplomatic way of saying "Alberta isn't taxing the absolute snot out of every warm body."

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Tammerlain View Post
    A dramatic decrease in royalty payments over the last 14 years, Dropping from a high of just over 10 billion down to around 2.2 billion in 2016. Despite oil production increasing by a good 70 over that time frame. To be honest I had no idea it had dropped that much and to that little. That drop would cover 70% of the deficit by itself.
    There's something called "the price of oil", which has a (slight) impact on profits in the O&G industry, and by extension, provincial royalties.

    Perhaps you'd care to overlay your royalties chart with a chart of the prices of oil and gas over the same period of time. You might notice a (slight) bit of a correlation between the two.

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    Re: Alberta's new budget is a head scratcher

    Quote Originally Posted by Grand Mal View Post
    Even now, Trudeau would have to work harder at it to equal the budget deficits the Conservatives saddled us with.
    He's obviously working really hard at it, then, because he's blown the Harper government average out of the water every single year he's been in office. Excepting the 2008/2009 crash--in fairness. That year was the record for bad, and Harper was at the helm.

    More to the point: I'm not plugging the Conservatives in this thread. I'm plugging whatever party will balance the damned provincial (or federal) budget without hiking taxes.
    Last edited by COTO; 10-31-19 at 08:22 PM.

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    Re: Alberta's new budget is a head scratcher

    Quote Originally Posted by COTO View Post
    First of all, even if we take every last dime given to the oil industry, including funding for research, funding for cleaner environmental practices, transcontinental shipping (due to the stalled pipelines), and royalty breaks/capital incentives in line with other major Alberta industries (also, in line with literally every other oil-producing state or province in North America), we only get to $2.2 billion. The 2018-2019 deficit is shaping up to be $6.7 billion, hence sticking it to Big Oil isn't going to "mostly fix" anything.

    Royalty costs can't be offset "by charging the Americans more for crude oil" because, like it or not, we live in a global economy. Uncle Sam is more than happy to get his oil from OPEC, Russia, or anywhere else he pleases. In fact, Hollywood has done such a hit job on Alberta in its crusade against oil that Alberta is bordering on "lucky" the US still takes the stuff from us. It used to be we could reason with people, "This oil is cleaner, safer, more responsibly extracted, and more ethical than oil you'll find anywhere else on Earth," but the Hollywood hit squad snuffed out that advantage post haste.

    Building refineries in Western Canada is a good idea, but as someone who has relatives in the industry, I can tell you with authority that it's far more easily said than done. It requires huge amounts of capital (and guess where 92% of North America's capital comes from: it starts with a "U" and ends with an "SA"), it faces all kinds of social and environmental hurdles, and it's risky due to the cyclical nature of O/G prices.

    I suppose the government could invest some of the capital needed in building the refineries, but... oop... there's a few billion more in O&G subsidies they can't afford.

    Diversification is important, but balanced budgets are more important at this cosmic moment in time. If you can accomplish the former while satisfying the latter, more power to you.

    Finally, immigration only gets things "humming" if the people immigrating are producing more than they're consuming from the public sector. How does one ensure this is the case? By making sure one's budget is balanced with a modest tax load. As long as people are willing to immigrate with modest taxes and social services cut back to a level that doesn't run a deficit, immigrate away.


    I'm not seeing anything significant related to either in the CBC article. Which bullet point are these cuts and subsidies hidden in?




    Props for finding a diplomatic way of saying "Alberta isn't taxing the absolute snot out of every warm body."


    There's something called "the price of oil", which has a (slight) impact on profits in the O&G industry, and by extension, provincial royalties.

    Perhaps you'd care to overlay your royalties chart with a chart of the prices of oil and gas over the same period of time. You might notice a (slight) bit of a correlation between the two.
    Should include a flat rate per barrel and a rider that increases with the price of oil. I am Albertan, and do not like to see the wealth be given out for nearly free
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    Re: Alberta's new budget is a head scratcher

    Quote Originally Posted by COTO View Post
    First of all, even if we take every last dime given to the oil industry, including funding for research, funding for cleaner environmental practices, transcontinental shipping (due to the stalled pipelines), and royalty breaks/capital incentives in line with other major Alberta industries (also, in line with literally every other oil-producing state or province in North America), we only get to $2.2 billion. The 2018-2019 deficit is shaping up to be $6.7 billion, hence sticking it to Big Oil isn't going to "mostly fix" anything.

    Royalty costs can't be offset "by charging the Americans more for crude oil" because, like it or not, we live in a global economy. Uncle Sam is more than happy to get his oil from OPEC, Russia, or anywhere else he pleases. In fact, Hollywood has done such a hit job on Alberta in its crusade against oil that Alberta is bordering on "lucky" the US still takes the stuff from us. It used to be we could reason with people, "This oil is cleaner, safer, more responsibly extracted, and more ethical than oil you'll find anywhere else on Earth," but the Hollywood hit squad snuffed out that advantage post haste.

    Building refineries in Western Canada is a good idea, but as someone who has relatives in the industry, I can tell you with authority that it's far more easily said than done. It requires huge amounts of capital (and guess where 92% of North America's capital comes from: it starts with a "U" and ends with an "SA"), it faces all kinds of social and environmental hurdles, and it's risky due to the cyclical nature of O/G prices.

    I suppose the government could invest some of the capital needed in building the refineries, but... oop... there's a few billion more in O&G subsidies they can't afford.

    Diversification is important, but balanced budgets are more important at this cosmic moment in time. If you can accomplish the former while satisfying the latter, more power to you.

    Finally, immigration only gets things "humming" if the people immigrating are producing more than they're consuming from the public sector. How does one ensure this is the case? By making sure one's budget is balanced with a modest tax load. As long as people are willing to immigrate with modest taxes and social services cut back to a level that doesn't run a deficit, immigrate away.


    I'm not seeing anything significant related to either in the CBC article. Which bullet point are these cuts and subsidies hidden in?




    Props for finding a diplomatic way of saying "Alberta isn't taxing the absolute snot out of every warm body."


    There's something called "the price of oil", which has a (slight) impact on profits in the O&G industry, and by extension, provincial royalties.

    Perhaps you'd care to overlay your royalties chart with a chart of the prices of oil and gas over the same period of time. You might notice a (slight) bit of a correlation between the two.
    Maybe if you paid attention to the news you would know. Alberta has a young high income population, no provincial sales tax, and absurdly low income taxes when compared with the rest of the country yet complain they do not have any money. You need economic diversification wants to have long-term success, they spend the money now, not substantially more later.
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