Trump's in a hurry to get the talks rolling. Speculation is, he wants it done before next year's Mexican election campaign starts. Apparently there's a popular left-wing front runner that might stir up an inconvenient public sentiment.
Will Trump try to resurrect his image by being tough in trade negotiations? Time to arrange markets in Europe?
Being on the West Coast, there is but ONE story worth heading: NAFTA.
Talks should open by this fall and they appear to have a very short shelf life. The head of the US team has written to his Canadian counterpart to advise they have begun meetings and consultations with business and want to begin tri-partate talks this fall.
Very curious is the silence from Ottawa and the inside information that Canadian trade experts have taken up temporary residence in Mexico City. Trudeau is very crafty, he loves to be under estimated.
I have a funny feeling Mr. Trump is going to be frustrated on this promise as well. NAFTA took talks and pacts dating back to the Pearson era, the talks spanned Pierre Trudeau, Brian Mulroney, and Jean Chretien and 5 persidents. It is a massively complex document.
In closing what I know about negotiating deals, is the party that's in a hurry always loses. If they have a spring deadline, I see Trump acting unilaterally and ripping up the whole thing causing a serious recession.
w this is where I theorize that Trump wants a win and soon, as in next fall, and yes he is besieged and frustrated on other points.
There is but one problem with that. NAFTA is like a deliberate puzzle where if you change a word here, a lot changes somewhere else. Trump is making a huge strategic mistake in hurrying, and perhaps through his bravado doesn't realize there are consequences.
He is also opening the talks amid the softwood lumber dispute which should be getting court attention in the fall, and that this time Canada is planning and will deliver a return salvo. In the past on softwood we have gone the court route and last time the Americans simply ignored the rulings. So, this time will be different and they will pay a price.