Dear Conservative Party of Canada

Realitywins said:

Good analysis. Problem is, Trudeau is more NDP than Mulcair or the Rolex Socialist who preceded him.

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Trudeau is whatever is needed win government. I have read a lot of analyses and none of them address Trudeau's appeal. As a cub reporter in his father's leadership bid, complete with sandals and a rose in the lapel I saw Canadian politics in all its boredom. Suddenly a red flower blooms amid the grey, and we start paying attention....to the wrong things sometimes but always seem to get it right for the age.

Like his father, AND the reality of Trump's image claim, he is "new", "not a professional" and "fresh". But also like his father, he is the red flower. I recall one night watching the crowd anticipate the arrival of the Prime Minister when suddenly most heads turned to the right, and there he was, Pierre Elliot Trudeau casually walking in unannounced, not even really looking at the crowd and they all turned as one.

Justin is the same. When he greets you, even in the managed situations, you instantly feel there is no one in that room more interesting to him than you.

And like his father, many see him as kind of a sissy, how 'real men' took down his dad for a flower in the lapel, so too is Justin. And we all forget that Pierre
was an athlete, and the man who said "just watch me" when he threatened to call out the army....

we must then not forget that Justin is a boxer all of whom learn to take hits and keep coming back.

And lastly we shouldn't forget his distaff side. A lot has been written about Margaret, but what we miss is that she is the one who tamed the dad, at least for awhile and that would require amazing will, as Pierre could be a son-of-a-bitch of a son-of-a-bitch just for fun.

And what both parents had in common besides charisma, was that both enjoyed being underestimated.

Fearandloathing said:

As a start, the "progressives" are three parties, labour, activist/enviromentalism, and political opportunism.....what I used to call the "Rainbow" platfrom back when rainbow meant a group of colors.

The NDP is facing the toughest test since Tommy Douglas pulled them out of the communist mire and brought them to the national stage. IT is what killed them in the last election in BC. They were crushed in an election they should have won, were 22% ahead when the race began and lost seats....their minority reduced.

The reason was clear, the leader of the day was absolute "NO" to pipelines, including one being proposed in Vancouver....and every welder, pipe fitter, steel worker and every other unionized worked said "**** you" we want jobs.

It was said, me among them, that the NDP now had an albatross around it's neck; "the environment" where they beat heads with the Green party on every vote. With that there, the unions will not be, no matter how much the NDP blathers about "living wage", the issue is jobs for them and the NDP can't match what Trudeau has done on that file. He out NDP'd the NDP with his infrastructure program and now $50 billion deficit.

Every road, pipeline, infrastructure etc. in Canada is going to be exposed and opposed from now on, as even white people can get $ if a pipeline impacts on their lifestyle. And every union will want it, and every eco freak will hate it, and the NDP has both under their tent, even giving various unions delegate status at conventions.

Damned if you don't and damned if you do is not a foundation on which to build a party.

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Actually what killed the NDP, at least federally is weak leadership (Mulclair is a joke) and a platform that was arguably more centrist than that of the Liberals.

I mean balanced budget commitment from the party that is supposed to be the left conscience of Canada whilst oil prices were flagging, borrowing costs were cheap and stimulus and economic reorientation desirable? No plans on infrastructure spending? No commitment to electoral reform? No marijuana legalization plans? Where the **** did the left go, and why did they think alienating their base by going right when the zeitgeist at the time was left (as the Liberals recognized and seized on this) was a winning idea? I normally lean NDP, but I literally had nothing to vote for outside of promises to abolish the TPP. No wonder Mulclair got turfed not long after.

Fearandloathing said:

As a start, the "progressives" are three parties, labour, activist/enviromentalism, and political opportunism.....what I used to call the "Rainbow" platfrom back when rainbow meant a group of colors.

The NDP is facing the toughest test since Tommy Douglas pulled them out of the communist mire and brought them to the national stage. IT is what killed them in the last election in BC. They were crushed in an election they should have won, were 22% ahead when the race began and lost seats....their minority reduced.

The reason was clear, the leader of the day was absolute "NO" to pipelines, including one being proposed in Vancouver....and every welder, pipe fitter, steel worker and every other unionized worked said "**** you" we want jobs.

It was said, me among them, that the NDP now had an albatross around it's neck; "the environment" where they beat heads with the Green party on every vote. With that there, the unions will not be, no matter how much the NDP blathers about "living wage", the issue is jobs for them and the NDP can't match what Trudeau has done on that file. He out NDP'd the NDP with his infrastructure program and now $50 billion deficit.

Every road, pipeline, infrastructure etc. in Canada is going to be exposed and opposed from now on, as even white people can get $ if a pipeline impacts on their lifestyle. And every union will want it, and every eco freak will hate it, and the NDP has both under their tent, even giving various unions delegate status at conventions.

Damned if you don't and damned if you do is not a foundation on which to build a party.

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So how do you feel the upcoming BC elections will go?

Carjosse said:

Well if you don't like our Canadian political values then you are free to move Trump's conservative wonderland south of the border. Don't the door hit you on the way out.

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I'm hoping Maxime Bernier wins the leadership election

Quag said:

I seriously doubt it. Again their gains were in Quebec where they had nothing before, heck they had people win who weren't even in the riding to campaign. Yeah I know the circumstances behind it and understand it. but the reason that happened is because the NDP themselves didn't expect to win anything in Quebec either.

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Quebec was a boomerang vote for the NDP. People were pissed at the Bloc and Harper The Horrible and so parked their vote with the NDP. This was even more evident in the subsequent election when they lost most of the "gains". Of course they will never acknowledge this and to this day believe Jack The Rolex Socialist's death brought them all those votes. Doing in death what he could never do in life.

Surrealistik said:

We'll have to see. I'm not basing this off of Quebec at all, so much as the contemporary political landscape. If NDP gains happen, they will be borne off the back of a skilled NDP leader, and Trudeau's broken promises. In general I think you underestimate how much his lies with regards to electoral reform hurt his brand among the left and progressive crowd; excellent munitions for a savvy NDP leader looking to reclaim at least a significant portion of those votes.

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When did the NDP ever have a "savvy" leader? Won't happen either.

Fearandloathing said:

Trudeau is whatever is needed win government. I have read a lot of analyses and none of them address Trudeau's appeal. As a cub reporter in his father's leadership bid, complete with sandals and a rose in the lapel I saw Canadian politics in all its boredom. Suddenly a red flower blooms amid the grey, and we start paying attention....to the wrong things sometimes but always seem to get it right for the age.

Like his father, AND the reality of Trump's image claim, he is "new", "not a professional" and "fresh". But also like his father, he is the red flower. I recall one night watching the crowd anticipate the arrival of the Prime Minister when suddenly most heads turned to the right, and there he was, Pierre Elliot Trudeau casually walking in unannounced, not even really looking at the crowd and they all turned as one.

Justin is the same. When he greets you, even in the managed situations, you instantly feel there is no one in that room more interesting to him than you.

And like his father, many see him as kind of a sissy, how 'real men' took down his dad for a flower in the lapel, so too is Justin. And we all forget that Pierre
was an athlete, and the man who said "just watch me" when he threatened to call out the army....

we must then not forget that Justin is a boxer all of whom learn to take hits and keep coming back.

And lastly we shouldn't forget his distaff side. A lot has been written about Margaret, but what we miss is that she is the one who tamed the dad, at least for awhile and that would require amazing will, as Pierre could be a son-of-a-bitch of a son-of-a-bitch just for fun.

And what both parents had in common besides charisma, was that both enjoyed being underestimated.

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I never bought into the Trudeaumania then or now. I covered Trudeau over several elections and frankly could not see what all the fuss was about. Same for Trudeau the Lesser though I have not and since I no longer have to be, will not be in the same room with him. Regardless, I see him as a bit of a buffoon, with one foot only in tentative contact with reality, who's most difficult decision in life is whether to have the upstairs butler or the downstairs maid tie his shoe-laces. Sadly, he is the best currently on offer. Regardless, the Libs have stolen the NDP cachet, in-so-far as they ever had any and even if they could resurrect Jack, they couldn't form government just as they couldn't when he was alive.

Realitywins said:

When did the NDP ever have a "savvy" leader? Won't happen either.

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Jack fits that bill contrary to your views on him you've made plainly evident. No doubt that NDP gains during his time had much to do with terrible alternatives, but the man definitely had charisma and was true to the progressive agenda unlike Mulclair. Also, never is a long time.

Surrealistik said:

Jack fits that bill contrary to your views on him you've made plainly evident. No doubt that NDP gains during his time had much to do with terrible alternatives, but the man definitely had charisma and was true to the progressive agenda unlike Mulclair. Also, never is a long time.

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Oh he had Charisma to be sure. But he was a flake and if he had been any sort of "leader" at all, if the NDP had anything substantial to offer, we'd have seen an NDP government long since. Fortunately the Canadian Electorate just doesn't trust the NDP and that is a good thing.

Surrealistik said:

Actually what killed the NDP, at least federally is weak leadership (Mulclair is a joke) and a platform that was arguably more centrist than that of the Liberals.

I mean balanced budget commitment from the party that is supposed to be the left conscience of Canada whilst oil prices were flagging, borrowing costs were cheap and stimulus and economic reorientation desirable? No plans on infrastructure spending? No commitment to electoral reform? No marijuana legalization plans? Where the **** did the left go, and why did they think alienating their base by going right when the zeitgeist at the time was left (as the Liberals recognized and seized on this) was a winning idea? I normally lean NDP, but I literally had nothing to vote for outside of promises to abolish the TPP. No wonder Mulclair got turfed not long after.

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I think the biggest problem the NDP had last time around was they got so excited about the win that they stopped being who they were to ensure it. By the time it was over, the image of Tommy the Used Car Salesman was too much to for most people to accept. Then, as it began to wind down, they got desperate and nasty, and that was it. It was their race to lose, given the opening polls. At the end of the day it was an ABC movement that had to choose between two parties based on policy, and the NDP simply didn't have anything to show.

My concern next time around is that people will not be satisfied with how the LPC delivered on their promises, and we won't have that unified voting block, splitting the center / left, allowing the right's 35% to win. Depending on who wins the leadership race, that could be a disaster. Again, I like Chong, but beyond that I'm not sure who else I would trust, and Chong gets called out all the time for not being "strong enough", so his chances aren't great...at least, based on what I'm hearing. I'm worried in this new climate that moderate conservatives won't make enough of a statement to drive moderation, and will be left to vote for whoever the extremely vocal fringe decides is "conservative enough".

Worse still is Trudeau's apparent desire to please everyone... The pot legalization is the latest example. "We'll make it legal, but we'll still portray it as negatively as possible, and use out of touch methodologies to control it".... What is that? Now both sides are pissed...despite it being a fairly good bill to accomplish what it set out to do (mostly - disappointed that the high degree of control over production will not accomplish the legitimization of the small growers out there that instead of criminals would be small business owners). What needed to happen was he needed to draw a line in the sand, and begin to edge out the hard right edge in our country, through education and legislation. It's clear from the last election that the right is an eroding faction, with the "good" Conservatives dying off, and the rest becoming too repugnant to endure in their new "alt-right" manifestation. Why he's still trying to pander to them is beyond me, but it puts us at risk. The Conservatives might not have 51%, but they only need 35% to be dangerous...

OlNate said:

I think the biggest problem the NDP had last time around was they got so excited about the win that they stopped being who they were to ensure it. By the time it was over, the image of Tommy the Used Car Salesman was too much to for most people to accept. Then, as it began to wind down, they got desperate and nasty, and that was it. It was their race to lose, given the opening polls. At the end of the day it was an ABC movement that had to choose between two parties based on policy, and the NDP simply didn't have anything to show.

My concern next time around is that people will not be satisfied with how the LPC delivered on their promises, and we won't have that unified voting block, splitting the center / left, allowing the right's 35% to win. Depending on who wins the leadership race, that could be a disaster. Again, I like Chong, but beyond that I'm not sure who else I would trust, and Chong gets called out all the time for not being "strong enough", so his chances aren't great...at least, based on what I'm hearing. I'm worried in this new climate that moderate conservatives won't make enough of a statement to drive moderation, and will be left to vote for whoever the extremely vocal fringe decides is "conservative enough".

Worse still is Trudeau's apparent desire to please everyone... The pot legalization is the latest example. "We'll make it legal, but we'll still portray it as negatively as possible, and use out of touch methodologies to control it".... What is that? Now both sides are pissed...despite it being a fairly good bill to accomplish what it set out to do (mostly - disappointed that the high degree of control over production will not accomplish the legitimization of the small growers out there that instead of criminals would be small business owners). What needed to happen was he needed to draw a line in the sand, and begin to edge out the hard right edge in our country, through education and legislation. It's clear from the last election that the right is an eroding faction, with the "good" Conservatives dying off, and the rest becoming too repugnant to endure in their new "alt-right" manifestation. Why he's still trying to pander to them is beyond me, but it puts us at risk. The Conservatives might not have 51%, but they only need 35% to be dangerous...

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I think you are spending too much time looking at the NDP for a reason they lost.
They lost because their great success in Quebec was a blip and because Justin Trudeau.
It really is that simple.

Realitywins said:

I never bought into the Trudeaumania then or now. I covered Trudeau over several elections and frankly could not see what all the fuss was about. Same for Trudeau the Lesser though I have not and since I no longer have to be, will not be in the same room with him. Regardless, I see him as a bit of a buffoon, with one foot only in tentative contact with reality, who's most difficult decision in life is whether to have the upstairs butler or the downstairs maid tie his shoe-laces. Sadly, he is the best currently on offer. Regardless, the Libs have stolen the NDP cachet, in-so-far as they ever had any and even if they could resurrect Jack, they couldn't form government just as they couldn't when he was alive.

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Now THAT is the conservative narrative. They spent millions and millions trying to create that image with ads outright claiming "Trudeau wants your children on drugs".

Having been a core member of the Reform Movement and Preston Manning I find the entire approach disgusting, American-style attack ads at their worst. I knew who wrote the line for Manning "if they're attacking me personally it means they have run out of answers."

You must have missed the point where I said Trudeau, like his dad, likes to be underestimated. And that's the only ammo they have to throw is immature attacks on his character.

The Liberals stole NOTHING. They took advantage of what no hair Mulcair surrendered, no pushed on him and what was obvious to most of us a year before the election. Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition was preaching restraint. Her Majesty's Government was slowly, maybe going to open the purse strings a little bit.....and the nation was needing in a number or areas.

They occupied the space that it traditionally theirs, bits of both their opponents, wrapped it up and packaged it for Municipal mayors, who kindly responded by handing him 24 Sussex Drive on a platter. The Conservatives didn't see it coming, so wrapped with the self assurance that their niggardly ways would win, so when mayors talked about new bus routes, new badly needed trains etc., they upped the ante and sold the liberals to the voters without having mentioned Justin's name.

The Tories, for that's all they are now, the reform has been driven out of them, also failed to pay attention, and in Napoleon's famous words 'never call attention to your opponent's mistake while he is making it" failed to adjust their campaign in response to where it was being taken. They had failed to note who was the crew behind Trudeau and "the miracle on Main Street, when Cristy Clark's Liberals snatched a win out of a 'hopeless' situation by actually INCREASING her majority after trailing 22% to 47% for a year.

Now they meet in a phone booth, their leading star can't speak French and wants Canada to join the Nuclear club........I don't think the Liberals have to much to worry about.

However, should Preston Manning want to re-emerge, the best prime minister Canada never had may stirs things up a bit

BTW, so you know, 24 Sussex is a rat infested, moldy "trear-down" because Chretien wanted Martin to have to pay the bill, and we know how that turned out.

Quag said:

I think you are spending too much time looking at the NDP for a reason they lost.
They lost because their great success in Quebec was a blip and because Justin Trudeau.
It really is that simple.

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MMmm....maybe... But the LPC had a lot farther to claw back from after their 2011 decimation....had Mulcair come forward with good, consistent policy that stayed true to NDP ideologies, they could have come out a lot farther ahead getting the ABC vote. I don't think Canada has been so willing to listen to the Left, while being so sick of the Right, in a long time... Don't get me wrong, I'm not wishing for a different outcome, and I never planned to vote for the NDP (unless it was the only way to ensure a Con loss), but there was a reason they lost Quebec, and Justin Trudeau was no sure thing at the start.

All very interesting to look back on, of course, that good ol' 20/20 hindsight.

OlNate said:

MMmm....maybe... But the LPC had a lot farther to claw back from after their 2011 decimation....had Mulcair come forward with good, consistent policy that stayed true to NDP ideologies, they could have come out a lot farther ahead getting the ABC vote. I don't think Canada has been so willing to listen to the Left, while being so sick of the Right, in a long time... Don't get me wrong, I'm not wishing for a different outcome, and I never planned to vote for the NDP (unless it was the only way to ensure a Con loss), but there was a reason they lost Quebec, and Justin Trudeau was no sure thing at the start.

All very interesting to look back on, of course, that good ol' 20/20 hindsight.

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It wasn't about clawing back from anything politics is not a sports match where a team has to dig deep to come back from behind. It is basically a popularity contest and Justin Trudeau has lots of charisma, PET as his father and consequently is extremely popular. A lot of people were just waiting for someone like him to go back to the Liberal party. The NDP did not and does not have any real presence in Quebec,. They lost those seats because winning them was an aberration not because of anything else. If Justin didn't come along they might have held on to some more but they would still have been decimated.

Quag said:

I think you are spending too much time looking at the NDP for a reason they lost.
They lost because their great success in Quebec was a blip and because Justin Trudeau.
It really is that simple.

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I don't think so.

At best it might explain the Liberal taking down a minority, but not a majority, in which case you're technically right, but it ignores the disastrous issues with NDP leadership and policy which were massive contributors to the ultimate outcome of the election.

In my case, as stated, I lean strongly NDP, and I ultimately voted Liberal because that clueless neoliberal **** Mulcair gave me nothing to vote for. There was no substantive split in the left because Mulclair and his platform were truly that awful.

Surrealistik said:

I don't think so.

At best it might explain the Liberal taking down a minority, but not a majority, in which case you're technically right, but it ignores the disastrous issues with NDP leadership and policy which were massive contributors to the ultimate outcome of the election.

In my case, as stated, I lean strongly NDP, and I ultimately voted Liberal because that clueless neoliberal **** Mulcair gave me nothing to vote for. There was no substantive split in the left because Mulclair and his platform were truly that awful.

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I have to disagree, the NDP was a blip when they did well under Layton, mostly due to people still being mad at the Liberals and finding the BQ pretty pointless. It was in Quebec that they really made their breakthrough, gaining more than half their seats in a province where they hadn't done anything before. It was actually pretty impressive they kept any in the last election but anyone thinking they would have a repeat performance was living in a dream world

Quag said:

I have to disagree, the NDP was a blip when they did well under Layton, mostly due to people still being mad at the Liberals and finding the BQ pretty pointless. It was in Quebec that they really made their breakthrough, gaining more than half their seats in a province where they hadn't done anything before. It was actually pretty impressive they kept any in the last election but anyone thinking they would have a repeat performance was living in a dream world

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I don't actually disagree with the body of your theory, because there are elements of truth to it, but at least equally true in explaining the NDP's failure was the weakness of Mulclair's leadership, and the utter failure of NDP to play to the zeitgeist and embrace a left platform unlike the Liberals.

Again, if it was impossible for someone like me and most of my friends, committed social democrats, to go NDP over the Liberals because they had such a truly, irrationally horrid platform, I simply cannot see how that general sentiment didn't sweep the left. The only people voting NDP were those who hated the TPP more than they loved the Liberal platform and/or feared the risk of a left split putting the Conservatives in power, or those who irreconcilably distrusted the Liberals (fair enough as seen with ER and their infuriating habit of campaigning from the left, governing from the right; I can't say I trusted them myself).

Why is it so hard to believe that the NDP is a viable party if it wasn't guided by uncharismatic incompetents? Just look at Stéphane Dion, Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff; the leader and the platform make a concrete, and significant difference. Without a rallying, charismatic figure and appealing agenda, the Liberals were thoroughly lost in the political wilderness.

Surrealistik said:

I don't actually disagree with the body of your theory, because there are elements of truth to it, but at least equally true in explaining the NDP's failure was the weakness of Mulclair's leadership, and the utter failure of NDP to play to the zeitgeist and embrace a left platform unlike the Liberals.

Again, if it was impossible for someone like me and most of my friends, committed social democrats, to go NDP over the Liberals because they had such a truly, irrationally horrid platform, I simply cannot see how that general sentiment didn't sweep the left. The only people voting NDP were those who hated the TPP more than they loved the Liberal platform and/or feared the risk of a left split putting the Conservatives in power, or those who irreconcilably distrusted the Liberals (fair enough as seen with ER and their infuriating habit of campaigning from the left, governing from the right; I can't say I trusted them myself).

Why is it so hard to believe that the NDP is a viable party if it wasn't guided by uncharismatic incompetents? Just look at Stéphane Dion, Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff; the leader and the platform make a concrete, and significant difference. Without a rallying, charismatic figure and appealing agenda, the Liberals were thoroughly lost in the political wilderness.

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The NDP lacks broad appeal that the Conservatives and Liberals have. The has and only ever will appeal to left-wing voters, no matter how charismatic the leader. Their platform will never appeal to enough voters.

Carjosse said:

The NDP lacks broad appeal that the Conservatives and Liberals have. The has and only ever will appeal to left-wing voters, no matter how charismatic the leader. Their platform will never appeal to enough voters.

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...And it just so happens that left-wing voters are pretty (and increasingly) prominent in Canada.

I will grant that Liberals probably have a stronger brand overall, but give the NDP a strong leader and the Liberals a weak one, and the former easily becomes more popular than the latter.

Surrealistik said:

...And it just so happens that left-wing voters are pretty (and increasingly) prominent in Canada.

I will grant that Liberals probably have a stronger brand overall, but give the NDP a strong leader and the Liberals a weak one, and the former easily becomes more popular than the latter.

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Liberals have the strongest brand of any of the parties and they are the centrist party, and a vast majority voters are centrist because that is just human nature. The Liberals appeal to everyone, the NDP only appeal to left-wing voters. Why do you think they have governed this country for 70% of the last century?

Carjosse said:

Liberals have the strongest brand of any of the parties and they are the centrist party, and a vast majority voters are centrist because that is just human nature. The Liberals appeal to everyone, the NDP only appeal to left-wing voters. Why do you think they have governed this country for 70% of the last century?

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Strategic voting, typically superior leaders. Yes, centrism was in the past a consistently better sell, but the zeitgeist has definitely shifted, and continues to shift leftward. There's a reason Trudeau stole the NDP's playbook (who inexplicably abandoned it under Mulclair) excepting their stance on the TPP (presumably because that would have been unacceptable to his donors).