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Cairo's Protests Reverberate in Tehran

Catz Part Deux

Catz Part Deux

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Cairo's Protests Reverberate in Tehran - Reza Aslan - International - The Atlantic

All of this has people wondering whether what began in Iran two years ago could possibly make its way back to Iran in the near future. That is certainly what the Green Movement hopes will happen; its leaders recently petitioned the government for a permit to stage a protest in Iran next Monday in order to "show solidarity with the popular movements in the region and specifically the freedom-seeking movement embarked on by Tunisian and Egyptian people against their autocratic governments." There is no chance the Iranian regime is going to let that happen. In fact, the government has just shut down access in Iran to Reuters and Yahoo News, perhaps in recognition that the events in Egypt are increasingly difficult to spin into pro-regime propaganda. Instead, the regime has announced it will stage its own rally in support of the people of Egypt to coincide with the 32nd anniversary of the 1979 Revolution, which takes place this Friday. Of course, the last time the regime tried to celebrate the revolution's anniversary, it had to flood the streets with tens of thousands of armed security guards and shut down virtually all access to mobile phones and the internet, at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars, just to keep the event from being hijacked by the Green Movement.
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Keeping my fingers crossed that the flames of freedom spread. :peace
 
In all likelihood, Egypt will be a carbon copy of Iran in the near future.
 
Erod said:
In all likelihood, Egypt will be a carbon copy of Iran in the near future.
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Wow, little mary sunshine. Got any more positive thoughts to share?

I can't help thinking that if this had occurred when Bush was in office, y'all would have been shooting off fireworks in the streets, too.
 
Erod said:
In all likelihood, Egypt will be a carbon copy of Iran in the near future.
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Egypt is a completely different country from Iran. It's as dissimilar as Ireland is from Russia. What do you believe the similarities are?
 
Andalublue said:
Egypt is a completely different country from Iran. It's as dissimilar as Ireland is from Russia. What do you believe the similarities are?
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Egyptians aren't waiting for the return of the Mahdi, but those who rule Iran with an iron fist are waiting for the Return of the Twelfth Imam. Iran has much better control of social networking systems than the clunky Egyptians Govt. had. Iran also has the Pasdaran...the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards and the Basenji to put down democratic forces by shooting them and beating them. Besides, the Iranians Govt. does have the support of about one third of the Iranian people from what I've read.

The tides of revolution sweeping the Middle East are only going to affect American client states. Not Iran, not Syria, and not Lebanon. In fact Lebanon just installed a Hezbollah backed prime minister. I would call that a successful counter-revolution.
 
Albert Di Salvo said:
Egyptians aren't waiting for the return of the Mahdi, but those who rule Iran with an iron fist are waiting for the Return of the Twelfth Imam. Iran has much better control of social networking systems than the clunky Egyptians Govt. had. Iran also has the Pasdaran...the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards and the Basenji to put down democratic forces by shooting them and beating them. Besides, the Iranians Govt. does have the support of about one third of the Iranian people from what I've read.
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So you agree, very dissimilar indeed. Fair enough.

The tides of revolution sweeping the Middle East are only going to affect American client states. Not Iran, not Syria, and not Lebanon. In fact Lebanon just installed a Hezbollah backed prime minister. I would call that a successful counter-revolution.
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Not necessarily. I suspect Algeria and Yemen will be next, neither of which are US client states. I think those regimes that have most abused their positions to least positive effect are the most vulnerable.
 
Catz Part Deux said:
Wow, little mary sunshine. Got any more positive thoughts to share?

I can't help thinking that if this had occurred when Bush was in office, y'all would have been shooting off fireworks in the streets, too.
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I just haven't seen a country in that part of the world go any other direction the past 30 years. They all go the way of dictatorships or Islamic militant strongholds.

I fear Jordan and Saudi Arabia are next after Yemen.

I'd love to be wrong about all three.

Imagine if it happened in Turkey and Morocco.
 
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Erod said:
I'd love to be wrong about all three.
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Instead of going straight to the worst possible scenario, can't you, for even one day, be happy that peaceful protesters toppled a dictatorship of 30+ years and are breathing the free air of liberty at this moment?

Tomorrow may be chaos. But you know what? The situation they were in was already dysfunctional, broken, and bad.

Bad things could happen, sure. But the possibility of good things happening are--in this moment--a million times more likely than they were on January 24. That's a good thing.
 
Andalublue said:
So you agree, very dissimilar indeed. Fair enough.


Not necessarily. I suspect Algeria and Yemen will be next, neither of which are US client states. I think those regimes that have most abused their positions to least positive effect are the most vulnerable.
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Yemen is an American client state under its current leader. Why do you think the USS Cole was refueling in Yemen when it had a hole blown in its side and 17 of its sailors died? Algeria is run by an anti-Islamist oligarchy with close ties to the West.

Iran stones adulterous women and hangs gays. I don't think Egypt is as bad as Iran. But there will be no Green Revolution in Iran until the Iranian people decide to force the Theocrats to use up all of their bullets.
 
Catz Part Deux said:
Instead of going straight to the worst possible scenario, can't you, for even one day, be happy that peaceful protesters toppled a dictatorship of 30+ years and are breathing the free air of liberty at this moment?

Tomorrow may be chaos. But you know what? The situation they were in was already dysfunctional, broken, and bad.

Bad things could happen, sure. But the possibility of good things happening are--in this moment--a million times more likely than they were on January 24. That's a good thing.
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America needs less happiness for foreigners and more dispassionate analysis from its leader and those he has hired to run American foreign policy.
 
What happened to the Cedar Revolution in Lebanon? It first appeared to succeed, but them was skillfully outmaneuvered by the forces of counter-revolution.
 
Albert Di Salvo said:
America needs less happiness for foreigners and more dispassionate analysis from its leader and those he has hired to run American foreign policy.
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Your post sounds really smart, on the surface, until one realizes that Obama is the CEO of this country. What CEO do you know that does analysis for his large, multi-trillion dollar company? The job of the CEO is to make policy decisions BASED ON analysis conducted by topic experts.

I conclude: Your post is irrelevant and off-target.
 
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Albert Di Salvo said:
Iran stones adulterous women and hangs gays. I don't think Egypt is as bad as Iran. But there will be no Green Revolution in Iran until the Iranian people decide to force the Theocrats to use up all of their bullets.
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So, again, little similarity between Iran and Egypt.
 
Catz Part Deux said:
But! They have brown skin! And a lot of them are Islamic! And they wear those checkered head scarves and man-dresses!
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And they write in squiggles from right to left and their languages both sound like they're clearing their throat and they're both the bad guys in the Bible. Nnnnnnn!
 
Catz Part Deux said:
Your post sounds really smart, on the surface, until one realizes that Obama is the CEO of this country. What CEO do you know that does analysis for his large, multi-trillion dollar company? The job of the CEO is to make policy decisions BASED ON analysis conducted by topic experts.

I conclude: Your post is irrelevant and off-target.
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Yeah, Obama's like a CEO alright: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MyW9e5QdWxk
 
I just heard that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has informed the people of Iran that if they march they will get killed dead.
 
Albert Di Salvo said:
Yemen is an American client state under its current leader. Why do you think the USS Cole was refueling in Yemen when it had a hole blown in its side and 17 of its sailors died? Algeria is run by an anti-Islamist oligarchy with close ties to the West.

Iran stones adulterous women and hangs gays. I don't think Egypt is as bad as Iran. But there will be no Green Revolution in Iran until the Iranian people decide to force the Theocrats to use up all of their bullets.
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Don't forget the fact that the U.S. president did not come out in favor of the demonstrators in Iran as he did in Egypt. Plus western reporters can't flood Iran and support the demonstrators.

It seems you are correct, the only governments in the ME that are in trouble are the U.S. allies.
 
Iran's a different ball of wax. For one thing, they've already issued a statement to their people. "Seditionists will be corpses." And it's not bluff. Unlike Egypt's military, Iran's military WILL slaughter protesters to the last man/woman without a second thought. The only reason the Egyptian protest succeeded was because the Egyptian military is of the people and for the country itself. Mubarak himself was military; he could not succeed without their support. When he lost that, he lost everything.

The only way for regime change in Iran to take place is if the Mullah's wish it, or if the military suddenly turns on them, which it has shown absolutely NO tendency to do. :(
 
The only way for regime change in Iran to take place is if the Mullah's wish it, or if the military suddenly turns on them, which it has shown absolutely NO tendency to do.
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What was missing in the Iranian demonstrations that was present in the Egyption demonstrations was significant and extensive strike action. The reason that the Islamic revolution succeeded was due to the support of the Iranian oilworkers through strike action. The current regime, however, is aware of this, which is why they treat the oil workers very well for the most part.
 
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