From the CBO's letter:
-Over the next four years, change in insurance status would be very minimal. Three million fewer people would be receiving Medicaid/CHIP while three million more people would be covered by employer insurance. It won't be until 2014 that there's any notable change in the number of uninsured, at which point it will ramp up to the full projected 30 million by 2016, with 21m getting insurance through the exchanges, 17m getting it through Medicaid/CHIP, and 8m dropping out of employer or nongroup insurance.
-By 2019, there would still be 23m people without insurance, and the number would have started growing again.
-Penalty payments by individuals and businesses would total $69b over the 10 year period.
-The excise tax wouldn't kick in until 2018, but would net $12b in its first year and $20b in its second.
-As to the budget savings: "Approximately $85 billion of that reduction would be on-budget; other effects related to Social Security revenues and spending as well as spending by the U.S. Postal Service are classified as off-budget."
-The claim that the proposal will "cut the budget by $1.2T in the second decade" is a load of ****. The CBO says that the effect of the reform, if left unchanged, will be something like 0.5% of GDP. That's as specific as they get. They project the effect of the reconciliation bill as being something "between zero and .25% of GDP," aka "something between $0 and $600b."
The only reason for such drastic savings is that once it hits the second decade, the money being collected from the excise tax skyrockets while the payments for premiums level off. If anyone actually believes that that's going to happen, I'll introduce you to the AMT and we can have a chat.
-The savings numbers being quoted also appear to include the savings from the proposed student loan bill. The reasons for that should be obvious.
-Reductions in spending would be accomplished, among other things, through:
*$11.6b in savings from "Administrative simplification" of Medicaid spending
*$39.7b in savings from cuts in payments for home health care aides
*$139.1b in savings from cuts in Medicare Advantage payments
*$10.7b in savings from eliminating Part D subsidy for wealthy people
*$25b from "temporary adjustments to the calculation of Part B premiums" (read: increased revenue from higher premiums)
*$156.6b in savings from "Revision of Certain Market Basket Updates and Incorporation of services Productivity Improvements into Market Basket Updates that do not Already Incorporate Such Improvements"
*70.2b in savings from "TITLE VIII—COMMUNITY LIVING ASSISTANCE SERVICES AND SUPPORTS"
*70.4b in savings from "Medicare Advantage interactions"
Major outlays would include:
*$56.3b to close the Medicare prescription donut hole.
*$434b on Medicaid/CHIP
*$466b on exchange subsidies
