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The new Iranian uprising - This time, the Mullahs will fall

The Iranian government has announced that there will be no more Mr nice guy. Expect some more cracked heads and deaths. The "revolution" is not going to happen soon.
 
Not exactly true. At first they didn't fight back because they couldn't. The other guys have the bigger guns. But now they're starting to get rougher, as evidenced by the picture in the OP.

That's the nature of protests; some people behave differently than most. For the most part though, it's been a nonviolent movement. Moreover, I think sending them guns wouldn't be wise. If the struggle DOES become an outright violent confrontation between the protesters and the military, the military would easily win.

As long as the protests stay mostly nonviolent, there is the real possibility that most of the Revolutionary Guard will switch sides (which, obviously, would spell the end of the regime). Many of them are already refusing to obey orders to fire on peaceful protesters. IMO the goal of the protests should be to encourage the military to join them, not to kill them.
 
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Simple you ask what can we do us outside of Iran for starters here in the United State we can go and take over the Iran UN mission else were in the World attack Iran Embass by the Free people of the World.

The more we attack Iran interest in the World the more they have to start thinking about what they are doing in their Country. Basic law of War attack anything of your enemys when every you can.
Iran has several options, it can use its police and military to subdue the population openly, or it could use Hezbollah covertly to kill revolution leaders. I say we send in SOF to kill off Hezbollah wherever they are, so that whatever Iran does will be public.
 
I would like to agree with the OP but....

I am an active Twitterer. I had a green avatar on there in suppport of the revolution from the beginning. The revolution has been broadcase live there from day one. unfortunately, I fear, the short attention span of the West will be the down fall of this movement. I am sure there are CIA ops in country enabling and funding the resistance, but Iran has fought it long enough that it is no longer a major story. They have closed most avenues of communication with the outside world, save Twitter. Not that long ago, a DNS (denial of service) was attributed to Iran's Intelligence stopping the revolutions main venue to voice it

They killed neda on video and while she is now the face of the revolution it has gone too long Neda Soltan, Young Woman Hailed as Martyr in Iran, Becomes Face of Protests - International News | News of the World | Middle East News | Europe News - FOXNews.com her tomb has been desecrated as well.

I wish them all the best of luck, but the Mullah's have already made their guy the president despite the 'true election results'. figure heads and leading members are being arrested or killed. And no foriegn power will do a thing since it is an internal matter (officially).

Brutality will win over Ideology

a heavy price will be paid, even long after the revolt ends, in the dark of night

sad, but that is what I see happening. They came so close to becoming a 21st century country but those in power will endure whatever criticism they must to maintain control

Precisly!

This is why Basji militia members need to be quietly killed off. Then IRG members, then Aminijihad, and finally the Ayetoiletbowl himself.
 
This thread isn't about John Kerry or any other Democrat, or Republican, for that matter. It is a serious thread about the Iranian uprising, and the defeat of religious extremism, and I would like to see serious debate in this thread, instead of it turning into a flame war between hyperpartisans. Please stick to the topic, and stop being a troll.

You, sir, are a warrior and a poet.

As I've stated before, an Iranian rebellion -- successful or not -- would vastly change my opinion of human nature.
 
The Iranian government has announced that there will be no more Mr nice guy. Expect some more cracked heads and deaths. The "revolution" is not going to happen soon.

The tighter the Iranian nazi government tightens its grip the more people that will slip through its grasp and go rebellious on their asses.
 
Kandahar said:
That's the nature of protests; some people behave differently than most. For the most part though, it's been a nonviolent movement. Moreover, I think sending them guns wouldn't be wise. If the struggle DOES become an outright violent confrontation between the protesters and the military, the military would easily win.

Ah, so it is better to just bow down than to defend yourself? Is that what you are saying?

We published this statement on June 17th in response to the murder of Iranian civilians asserting their political beliefs by the basij.

It is clear now that the government won’t let Iranians demonstrate in peace. We call for freedom, democracy, equality and justice, and what do they do? They shoot at us. They kill our young men and women who have done nothing wrong except stand up for what they believe in. These courageous and heroic people who have given their lives for freedom will never be forgotten. Their families will not forget them, but neither will we! We have vowed to continue our struggle until we have attained a truly democratic and free political system, but whenever we go out to protest for this they beat us and shoot us. There is only one option left for us when we go out to fight for our human rights; We must be armed to defend ourselves!

If the dictatorship will not accept our calls for its death, and instead decides to kill us for our struggle, then we will do what is necessary to defend ourselves. We must make sure to be armed and prepared for any attacks they have prepared for us. Thousands of us have been captured by the disgusting secret police forces, the Basij and other state sponsored terrorists. They are now languishing in prisons like Evin all over the country. There they are being tortured and slowly killed. Imagine the pain they must be in! Imagine what they will do to us when they capture us! We must fight against this with all our might.

We have not chosen this path. The enemies of democracy have chosen it for us. They have decided that blood needs to be spilled, and our blood has been spilled for the past few days. This has gone on long enough. If they want blood to spill, then we shall make sure to spill theirs too!

There are undoubtedly people in the army and police who are sympathetic to our cause and who even want to take our side. Them we will respect and work with. We are calling on them to join us in this struggle. We will not shoot first and ask questions later like the Basij and other state-terrorists are doing now. But we will shoot at anyone who shoots at us first.

We must get weapons from wherever we can. If you have some old weapons lying at home, take them with you to a secure place where they can all be gathered. There you can stockpile as many of them as you can find. They can be used to attack armories and other storage places for weapons. We will use those to do the same until we have enough weapons to create our own police, our own militia, and eventually our own army!

But we will not be like the state terrorists. We will use our weapons to make sure that democracy is established, and that no one harms us for wanting to create such a society. When we chant death to the dictator, we mean it. And when we are armed, you will no longer dare stop us or our movement from saying that!

For everyone who has been martyred in the struggle since Friday, let’s arm ourselves!

Note: This message will be written in Farsi soon and sent to as many people in Iran as possible. The people must defend themselves from attacks. You have seen the videos and pictures of our young being killed without reason. This must be stopped, and only we can stop it when we are armed!

Rise of the Iranian People

Seems like some liberal pacifist rubbish to me. I'm sure if the police in your neighborhood were attempting to beat you, shoot you and throw you off buildings you'd want a gun to defend yourself.

stalin was a nice being said:
This isn't all of Iran. Its a small segment and if the US or the western world tries to help the protestors you can bet that the "revolution" will be over.

No revolution is made by the entire populace of a country.

After having read your post more carefully, Dana. I think you should know that many of the people leading the protests are Mullahs themselves. Ayatollah Montazeri is a prominant supporter of the protestors and many of the protestors are pro-Montazeri. Montazeri is definately not anti-mullah.

They are not "leading" the protests; they are riding on the crest of the tidal wave that the Iran people have generated. In case you haven't noticed many of the leaders were unable to maintain their position because of the fact that they could not reconcile their conservative political beliefs with the revolutionary demands of the Iranian people.

DeeJayH said:
Brutality will win over Ideology

I can't agree with this. The tensions that have boiled over into this movement have existed since the Islamic revolution crushed the workers' (socialist) movement and their coming out into the open as they have has produced a qualitative change in the political situation in the country. Whatever happens, there is simply no going back now.
 
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BTW I just wanted to add that I am glad that this is once again being discussed. It is disheartening to see events as important as these discussed only when the main stream media is reporting on them (which never lasts that long because they are always looking for the new hype), and between then and now, while tensions have not been as explosive they have been maintained. The movement never went anywhere and it won't until these issues are resolved, through whatever means.

Revolution does not happen overnight. It can take years, even decades to finally spill over into decisive conflict. While I initially was overly optimistic about the advances the protesters would make in the initial explosive stage, I still stand by my earlier statement that this will not die out and that this lapse in profound action on the part of the protesters is simply due to a regrouping of forces and a rebalancing of the situation and the power relations in Iranian society.

This will continue until these tensions are resolved.
 
Ah, so it is better to just bow down than to defend yourself? Is that what you are saying?

Not at all. I'm saying it's better for them to continue protests that are (mostly) non-violent...at least until a good bit of the military starts to defect. There is simply no way that a bunch of college students are going to win a firepower contest against the Revolutionary Guard, if it comes to that.

Put yourself in the position of a Revolutionary Guardsman: You're doing your job defending your country and collecting your paycheck. You don't want to hurt your fellow countrymen, and you may even sympathize with their ideals. If other Guardsmen start to stand down and/or join the opposition, there is a good chance that you'll stand down too. But if protesters start shooting at you, of course you're going to shoot back as you don't want to die.

The only way the revolution can be successful is if the military forces abandon the regime. Overpowering the military is a hopeless fantasy.

Khayembii Communique said:
Seems like some liberal pacifist rubbish to me. I'm sure if the police in your neighborhood were attempting to beat you, shoot you and throw you off buildings you'd want a gun to defend yourself.

Most successful democratic revolutions in recent years have been relatively nonviolent. In fact, I can only think of one recent revolution with much protester-initiated violence at all: Kyrgyzstan. And even there, it was mostly limited to overwhelming police in poorly-defended areas, taking over government buildings, and tossing some Molotov cocktails...not a full-scale armed rebellion.
 
1. The KKK never was an official organ of the State, nor a government itself, so using it as an example of a Theocracy fails.

2. The previous (Muslim) Theocracy in Spain lasted for about 800 years, and was quite stable for most of that time. It is also asserted by apologists for Islam that religious minorities fared quite well under that regime.

3. Technically, Great Britain might be called a Theocracy, since the Queen is also the head of the Church of England. This is obviously a semantic exercise.

4. Ancient Egypt appears to have had one of the highest living standards in the ancient world, and functioned as a stable Technocracy with a few crises for about 3000 years.

5. During the Pax Romana, a period marked by peace general tolerance and lawfulness, The Empire had a definite Official Religion, and indeed proclaimed the Emperors to be gods.

6. The Confederacy, much less the Old South was never a Theocracy.

7. The Soviet Union, and Communist China which enslaved and killed hundreds of millions were officially Atheistic, and suppressed religion.

8. Tyrannies are made by tyrannical personalities who will attach themselves to whatever creed, religion, or philosophy allows them to exert their desire for power. This includes any democratic form of government.
 
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Kandahar said:
Not at all. I'm saying it's better for them to continue protests that are (mostly) non-violent...at least until a good bit of the military starts to defect. There is simply no way that a bunch of college students are going to win a firepower contest against the Revolutionary Guard, if it comes to that.

Put yourself in the position of a Revolutionary Guardsman: You're doing your job defending your country and collecting your paycheck. You don't want to hurt your fellow countrymen, and you may even sympathize with their ideals. If other Guardsmen start to stand down and/or join the opposition, there is a good chance that you'll stand down too. But if protesters start shooting at you, of course you're going to shoot back as you don't want to die.

The only way the revolution can be successful is if the military forces abandon the regime. Overpowering the military is a hopeless fantasy.

Yes, which is why we have said that the people must be armed to defend themselves.

I fully agree that it is important to get members of the state to come over to the side of the people if it is possible. There have been instances of this happening in Iran when members of the police and army have refused to attack the protesters or have even gone over to their side, but not on a significant scale as of yet.

Most successful democratic revolutions in recent years have been relatively nonviolent. In fact, I can only think of one recent revolution with much protester-initiated violence at all: Kyrgyzstan. And even there, it was mostly limited to overwhelming police in poorly-defended areas, taking over government buildings, and tossing some Molotov cocktails...not a full-scale armed rebellion.

Such revolutions were specific to the conditions in which they developed and many were more violent than most think (India, for example). Not sure what that has to do with what you quoted, though.
 
BTW I just wanted to add that I am glad that this is once again being discussed. It is disheartening to see events as important as these discussed only when the main stream media is reporting on them (which never lasts that long because they are always looking for the new hype), and between then and now, while tensions have not been as explosive they have been maintained. The movement never went anywhere and it won't until these issues are resolved, through whatever means.

Revolution does not happen overnight. It can take years, even decades to finally spill over into decisive conflict. While I initially was overly optimistic about the advances the protesters would make in the initial explosive stage, I still stand by my earlier statement that this will not die out and that this lapse in profound action on the part of the protesters is simply due to a regrouping of forces and a rebalancing of the situation and the power relations in Iranian society.

This will continue until these tensions are resolved.

It is scary to think about what a nuclear Iranian government is likely to do if they really feel threatened from internal forces. North Korea on steroids!
 
washunut said:
It is scary to think about what a nuclear Iranian government is likely to do if they really feel threatened from internal forces. North Korea on steroids!

Um, they won't do anything.
 
Even if they did I doubt they would nuke themselves. :roll:

Sometimes it is hard to know if responses on this site are jokes or serious. Clearly they will not nuke themselves, but they could threaten their neighbors to change the focus off their ruthless actions against their own people.
 
Even if they did I doubt they would nuke themselves.
Sometimes it is hard to know if responses on this site are jokes or serious. Clearly they will not nuke themselves, but they could threaten their neighbors to change the focus off their ruthless actions against their own people.

What does that have to do with the internal situation?
 
The Green Revolution is no longer confined to Teheran and other large cities, but has now spread into the heartland of Iran. This is good news, and it also shows that the fundamentals of liberty are universal. People will not live as slaves. As one professor in an Iranian college town now teaches his students, "We are free to breathe, but not free to live; and not being free to live, we're dead, actually". Students, as well as others, are now expressing their beliefs out in the open, in defiance of the Mullahs.

Read this article in the LA times. The Mullah's hold on the people Iran is now growing tenuous. The Mullah's can take whatever hard line they want, but Liberty will never be suppressed, if that is what the people want.

My prediction - The Mullahs will fall within the next 5 years, and maybe much sooner.
 
More reports that the situation is complex but the ruling elite may be starting to disintegrate:

Iran's parliament exposes abuse of opposition prisoners at Tehran jail | World news | The Guardian

Indeed.

Amidinijihad's days are numbered and he knows it. The basji know it and the Ayetolietbowl knows it.

Eventually, the Republican Guard will begin to realize they are defending a dead horse. They will change sides or they WILL pay the price of their servetude to an unspeakable evil.
 
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