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Obama not losing support among independents

Joe1991

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This surpised me, I thought for sure Obama was losing at least some support among Dems or Independents....


Public Policy Polling: Where Obama's really dropping

When talking about the decline in Barack Obama's approval numbers the media usually focuses on independents, or whether he's losing his base. The biggest reason his numbers are going down right now though is not related to either of those things- it's because he's losing whatever small amount of bipartisan appeal he once had.

On our national survey in June Obama had an 82% approval rating with Democrats. Now it's 83%. He had a 46% approval rating with independents. Now it's 47%. No real change on either of those fronts. But with Republicans he's dropped from an 18% mark to just 10%. That shift is what put his approval rating below 50%- he's gone from a small amount of crossover support to a very small amount of crossover supports.
 
Considering that PPP is a partisan poll shop and that every other poll out there contradicts this one, I'd be wary of believing anything they say.


Obama Faces Challenge with Independents - Political Hotsheet - CBS News

CBS says he's dropped 20 points among independents in 7 months.

Demographic Notes - Barack Obama Approval Index - Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen has him dropping over 22.

4/8: Majority Approves of Obama’s Job Performance : Home of the Marist Poll: Pebbles and Pundits

Marist also has him dropping 20.


PPP was also mind-bogglingly off the mark in their polling on NY-23:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2009 - New York 23rd District - Special Election

While other pollsters may have been off by a few points, they were off by 21.

Edit: Also, there's absolutely no way that poll can be accurate. If Republicans are only around 24% of the country, then an 8% swing among them would be nowhere near enough to offset a 1% gain in Dems/Independents and still account for his significant drop in approval ratings. That's just mathematically impossible.
 
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Considering that PPP is a partisan poll shop and that every other poll out there contradicts this one, I'd be wary of believing anything they say.


Obama Faces Challenge with Independents - Political Hotsheet - CBS News

CBS says he's dropped 20 points among independents in 7 months.

Demographic Notes - Barack Obama Approval Index - Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen has him dropping over 22.

4/8: Majority Approves of Obama’s Job Performance : Home of the Marist Poll: Pebbles and Pundits

Marist also has him dropping 20.


PPP was also mind-bogglingly off the mark in their polling on NY-23:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2009 - New York 23rd District - Special Election

While other pollsters may have been off by a few points, they were off by 21.

Excuse me but isn't Rasmussen a right leaning polling company?
 
Excuse me but isn't Rasmussen a right leaning polling company?

No, despite the best efforts of some on here to paint them as such. Rasmussen's results tend to be a couple points tilted toward the Republicans, but that's largely because they use likely voters in their polls, while other companies use registered voters. In terms of accuracy, Rasmussen is widely acknowledged as one of the best.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2009 - New York 23rd District - Special Election

Partisan pollsters have a notation indicating their affiliation.
 
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No, despite the best efforts of some on here to paint them as such. Rasmussen's results tend to be a couple points tilted toward the Republicans, but that's largely because they use likely voters in their polls, while other companies use registered voters. In terms of accuracy, Rasmussen is widely acknowledged as one of the best.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2009 - New York 23rd District - Special Election

Partisan pollsters have a notation indicating their affiliation.

By "likely voters"? Do they include likely voters from both sides of the aisle in all of their polling?
 
By "likely voters"? Do they include likely voters from both sides of the aisle in all of their polling?

Yes. The way it works is this:

Some pollsters use "all adults," which is a good way to get a sense for how the country feels, but is pretty much useless in terms of electoral polling because the population at large does not mirror the electorate.

Most pollsters use "registered voters," which is better, because it just looks at people who are actually registered to vote and are thus potentially part of the electorate.

Other pollsters use "likely voters," which I think is the best, because it actually tends to track electoral results most accurately. Each firm uses a different method for calculating whether someone is a "likely voter," but it generally entails asking them whether they voted in the last election and whether they're planning on voting in the next one.

Because people that identify as Republican tend to be more likely to be turn out than people that identify as Democrats, polls that sample likely voters tend to be skewed a few points more toward Republicans than polls that simply look at registered voters or all adults.
 
Obama once had solid support among Independents, but no longer. Gallup:

Obama'a support among Independents
January 26 - February 1, 2009 = 62%
November 16 - 27, 2009 = 44%

Gallup has Obama slipping in every category except blacks, where his support increased by 1 point.

Obama's Approval Slide Finds Whites Down to 39%
 
When Obama's numbers are down in the GWB's numbers, I'll be concerned. The American public is fickle. I expect these numbers to flucuate wildly over the next 7 years.
 
When Obama's numbers are down in the GWB's numbers, I'll be concerned. The American public is fickle. I expect these numbers to flucuate wildly over the next 7 years.




Isn't Obama's numbers around Palins? :ssst:
 
I voted for Obama. I won't be doing so in 2012. So he lost at least one vote.
 
When Obama's numbers are down in the GWB's numbers, I'll be concerned. The American public is fickle. I expect these numbers to flucuate wildly over the next 7 years.

Too bad for you, that PBO will be out of office in three.
 
Too bad for you, that PBO will be out of office in three.

Really? Who do you think the Republicans have that is going to beat him?

Huckabee :doh Jindal :doh Palin :2rofll:
 
Really? Who do you think the Republicans have that is going to beat him?

Huckabee :doh Jindal :doh Palin :2rofll:


All of the above. By 2012, my dog could beat PBO out of the White House.

The only hope PBO has is for the Republicans to win back enough of the Congress to make him look good.
 
All of the above. By 2012, my dog could beat PBO out of the White House.

The only hope PBO has is for the Republicans to win back enough of the Congress to make him look good.

:2funny:......wait......wait......:2funny:
 
Considering that PPP is a partisan poll shop and that every other poll out there contradicts this one, I'd be wary of believing anything they say.

I don't see any evidence of partisanship, WSJ ranked them highly, and the story had been on Taegan Goddard's Political Wire , those guys play it pretty straight. Anyway... as I said it was surprising, and of course no single poll should be taken alone.
 
It doesn't matter how long Obama serves as president as long as he isn't allowed to do anything.
 
I don't see any evidence of partisanship, WSJ ranked them highly, and the story had been on Taegan Goddard's Political Wire , those guys play it pretty straight. Anyway... as I said it was surprising, and of course no single poll should be taken alone.

This isn't my characterization, it's the characterization of basically everyone.

RCP lists them as a Democratic-leaning firm:

RealClearPolitics - All Latest Polls

Pollster lists them as a Democratic-leaning firm:

Pollster.com: WI: Ratings (PPP 11/20-22)

TPM lists them as a Democratic-leaning firm:

Obama's Approval In The States: The Honeymoon Is Over -- We're Back To The Campaign | TPMDC

And to top it off, the President has donated tens of thousands of dollars, all to Democratic candidates or the Democratic party.

http://www.opensecrets.org/indivs/s...and=&all=Y&sort=N&capcode=sgrsx&submit=Submit

They also acknowledge it:

The firm makes its money by serving as the pollster to an exclusively Democratic roster of clients, ranging from members of Congress to dozens of state legislative and city council candidates. And CEO Dean Debnam has given generously to North Carolina Democratic candidates — including in races where his firm has conducted independent polling.

In the heat of last year’s competitive Senate race between former Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.) and Democrat Kay Hagan, Debnam donated $5,400 to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. He also made two $2,300 contributions to Hagan’s campaign.

Though there’s little to indicate the firm’s Democratic affiliation on its website — clients are listed, but without partisan identification — Jensen said PPP makes no secret of its politics. Either way, it’s become an emerging player in the polling industry for the frequency, newsworthiness and accuracy of its automated public polls. The Wall Street Journal reported last year that PPP was one of the most accurate pollsters in the home stretch of the 2008 presidential election.

“We’re absolutely rooting in the race. We don’t want Richard Burr to get reelected. We wanted Obama to win last fall,” said Jensen.

Poll vs. pol: Richard Burr says numbers lie - Josh Kraushaar - POLITICO.com
 
Jensen said PPP makes no secret of its politics. Either way, it’s become an emerging player in the polling industry for the frequency, newsworthiness and accuracy of its automated public polls. The Wall Street Journal reported last year that PPP was one of the most accurate pollsters in the home stretch of the 2008 presidential election.

Again, if If the WSJ calls them accurate, not sure it matters who the boss donates to... :shrug:
 
Again, if If the WSJ calls them accurate, not sure it matters who the boss donates to... :shrug:

If Karl Rove happened to predict the results of the 2008 general election down to 0.5% accuracy, does that mean that you'd automatically believe him over other, nonpartisan individuals, when it came to determining the demographic breakdown of Obama's approval rating in Nov of 2009?

I'm not trying to say that PPP didn't do quite well in some past elections or that they're incapable of honest polling. I'm simply pointing out that when you have a polling company that openly admits its partisan lean, if their results contradict the unanimous results of other nonpartisan pollsters in a way that would seem to favor that company's preferred party, I would take it with a shaker of salt. Especially where it looks mathematically impossible.
 
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If Karl Rove happened to predict the results of the 2008 general election down to 0.5% accuracy, does that mean that you'd automatically believe him over other, nonpartisan individuals, when it came to determining the demographic breakdown of Obama's approval rating in Nov of 2009?

I'm not trying to say that PPP didn't do quite well in some past elections or that they're incapable of honest polling. I'm simply pointing out that when you have a polling company that openly admits its partisan lean, if their results contradict the unanimous results of other nonpartisan pollsters in a way that would seem to favor that company's preferred party, I would take it with a shaker of salt. Especially where it looks mathematically impossible.

It's sad that you even have to explain these things. I don't know how you stay so calm...
 
It's sad that you even have to explain these things. I don't know how you stay so calm...

I don't think it's really that bad of an argument. As I was writing that post, I heard myself making the exact same arguments as Joe when I was defending Rasmussen's polling on an issue where everyone else was showing Obama's approval as being significantly higher. The two best arguments for Rasmussen in that case were that he had good results in the past and that he was unbiased. PPP has had good results as well, so all we're left with is the bias here. I think that's enough to basically ignore their results on this, but others could come to different conclusions.

If you want to talk about frustrating, try explaining the law to Vader or katiegrll... :mrgreen:
 
I don't think it's really that bad of an argument. As I was writing that post, I heard myself making the exact same arguments as Joe when I was defending Rasmussen's polling on an issue where everyone else was showing Obama's approval as being significantly higher. The two best arguments for Rasmussen in that case were that he had good results in the past and that he was unbiased. PPP has had good results as well, so all we're left with is the bias here. I think that's enough to basically ignore their results on this, but others could come to different conclusions.

Yea, I read the OP and immediately assumed it was bias since the results were a statistical outlier. All the major polling institutions have Obama taking a huge hit among independents; the only way the PPP's results are right is if all the others used a flawed methodology.

As to the issue, people on the left keep forgetting that America is a center-right nation. We can argue the semantics of "center-right" all day but everyone knows what it means and that it's largely true. Obama is governing from the far left, despite having run on a centrist platform, so it shouldn't be a surprise that he's losing support among independents. Obama has basically handed Washington D.C. over to a bunch of West Coast liberals; if he wants a second term then he needs to take the reigns back.

I thought I would NEVER vote for a major party candidate that I didn't truly support, but after nearly a year of Obama I'm willing to vote for any candidate the GOP fields in 2012.
 
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