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Obama not losing support among independents

RightinNYC said:
I'm not trying to say that PPP didn't do quite well in some past elections or that they're incapable of honest polling. I'm simply pointing out that when you have a polling company that openly admits its partisan lean, if their results contradict the unanimous results of other nonpartisan pollsters in a way that would seem to favor that company's preferred party, I would take it with a shaker of salt. Especially where it looks mathematically impossible.
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Honesty, I haven't looked at the breakdowns of other polls, so I didn't know it was an outlier, I usually go with rolling averages like on realclearpolitics. This story was linked from a very legit site, and their numbers surprised even me. You made excellent points, and it just shows the need to double check stories even from "balanced" news sites.
 
Joe1991 said:
This surpised me, I thought for sure Obama was losing at least some support among Dems or Independents....


Public Policy Polling: Where Obama's really dropping
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Who do you think you're kidding? You think we're all fools out here? Surprised you, that's bull****. That's no you at all. You're one of the last people around here who thinks he's losing support. Why did you set this thread up? You're disingenuous.
 
American said:
Who do you think you're kidding? You think we're all fools out here? Surprised you, that's bull****. That's no you at all. You're one of the last people around here who thinks he's losing support. Why did you set this thread up? You're disingenuous.
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:roll:
I would be ignorant of the facts and reality not to understand that Obama's numbers have come way down from election day. Again, the story was linked on political wire and CQ politics, and even the WSJ gave this this polling co. good ratings, so it's not I was trying to pass off a worldnetdaily story or something similiarly stupid.
 
..and denial ain't no river in Egypt.
 
Joe1991 said:
Honesty, I haven't looked at the breakdowns of other polls, so I didn't know it was an outlier, I usually go with rolling averages like on realclearpolitics. This story was linked from a very legit site, and their numbers surprised even me. You made excellent points, and it just shows the need to double check stories even from "balanced" news sites.
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Yeah, the averages make more sense. The "one poll" thing is usually bad. Rasmussen is consistently an outlier though. Have no clue how they are in business anymore.
 
formerroadie said:
Yeah, the averages make more sense. The "one poll" thing is usually bad. Rasmussen is consistently an outlier though. Have no clue how they are in business anymore.
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Rasmussen Reports - Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaA paid Fordham University analysis ranked Rasmussen Reports as the most accurate national polling firm in Election 2008

Reports by Slate Magazine and The Wall Street Journal found that Rasmussen Reports was one of the most accurate polling firms for the 2004 United States presidential election and 2006 United States general elections.[8][9]



[ame=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports]Rasmussen Reports - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]




fail? ;)
 
Obama fanboy's holding on with straining fingertips to their "hope and change" dream.. fail? No... just sad.
 
When it comes to polls, who is being polled is important.

Rasmussen uses likely voters based on a history of voting in previous elections.
Fox News and Democracy Corps use Registered Voters.
Gallup, CBS and CNN use anyone who answers the phone.

If polling for election results, in normal years, polling Likely Voters turns out more accurate results. Registered voters is second most accurate and that leaves a poll of the general public bringing up the rear.

If you are polling for the views of the general public, you should use the widest selection of the general population to get the clearest results. But you should also use a larger polling sample and assure that you have a good distribution of locations. If you poll only urban people you will have skewed results just as if you polled mostly rural areas.
 
RightinNYC said:
No, despite the best efforts of some on here to paint them as such. Rasmussen's results tend to be a couple points tilted toward the Republicans, but that's largely because they use likely voters in their polls, while other companies use registered voters. In terms of accuracy, Rasmussen is widely acknowledged as one of the best.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2009 - New York 23rd District - Special Election

Partisan pollsters have a notation indicating their affiliation.
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Absolutely untrue. It is because of their question wording on issue polling, and they know it themselves. They in fact put out an article on it last week, they tested different questions using slightly different wording, and got different results. Kudos to them for putting out the article.

They also spoke about how automated polling yields more accurate responses than live polling, and to some extent that has been proven true (for certain types of polling).

PPP is a highly respected firm, it is a Democratic firm to be sure, but it's public polls are highly relied upon.

Rasmussen absolutely has a house tilt in favor of Republicans on their issue polling, it seems only righties fail to acknowledge that. They are also a reputable firm, you just have to be aware of whether you are considering election polling or issue polling, and treat the results accordingly. Further, conflation of issue polling with election polling disregards the difference in poll construction. Question order and wording has a large impact on polling. Even more so on questions of opinion rather than who are you going to vote for.
 
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