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Thread: Warren, Biden and Buttigieg dangerously close to going broke

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    Re: Warren, Biden and Buttigieg dangerously close to going broke

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    In my opinion Warren didn't do herself any good as to winning the nomination by bashing Bloomberg. Sanders is clearly number one, the front runner, Bloomberg number two. Knocking down number two a bit while allowing number one to enhance his position is no way to gain the nomination.

    It's like in baseball, your team enters the week 10 games behind the leader, 5 games out of second. After the week is over, the debate in this case. Now you're only 2 games behind second place, but 12 games behind the leader of the division. In plain English, Warren lost ground on Sanders, number one but gain on number two. But is in a worse position than before the debate started.

    One doesn't gain ground on beating up number two. One gains ground on beating or attacking number one. All one has to do is look back on the 2016 GOP NH primary when everyone attacked number two, leaving number one alone. After that debate there was no doubt Trump would be the nominee.
    True, but Warren may have her eye on a (more realistic) shot of becoming the VP pick under Sanders.
    “The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists to adapt the world to himself.
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    Re: Warren, Biden and Buttigieg dangerously close to going broke

    Quote Originally Posted by ttwtt78640 View Post
    True, but Warren may have her eye on a (more realistic) shot of becoming the VP pick under Sanders.
    I thought about that. That's why I think Christie tore into Rubio in the GOP NH primary instead of going after Trump, the front runner. I don't think Warren as Sanders VP would work on the same ticket. No ideological balance, two far left progressives. No regional balance, both from the Northeast. Neither state is a swing state where the VP choice might enhance the chances of winning. I'm sure progressives would love it. Much like conservatives loved the Goldwater/Miller ticket. But at least that had regional balance. Arizona/New York.

    Warren would do nothing for Sanders if he is the nominee. Numbers wise, no help whatsoever. If Sanders and the Dems want a woman, I'd go with Klobuchar, Minnesota. Regional balance and Klobuchar is from a state, Minnesota in which Hillary won by a mere 1.5% point. A swing state. Then there is Baldwin, Wisconsin, a state Trump won in 2016 and is currently leading in the polls there over any and all possible Democratic nominees.

    Actually, I think Sanders will have a hard enough time living down his so called self description of himself as a Democratic Socialist against Trump. Trump is bound to make that one of his major campaign issues. If Trump succeeds in tying the socialist label to Sanders, whoever he chooses become irrelevant. Most Americans won't vote for a socialist. This leaves Sanders very vulnerable in my opinion. This hasn't been brought up before. This may be the reason the DNC is kind of leery of Sanders being their nominee. Just an opinion. Sanders calls himself a socialist and I'm sure that will get a lot of play come the general election campaign. Nothing like a tape of Sanders himself calling himself a Democratic Socialist. But we'll see.

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    Re: Warren, Biden and Buttigieg dangerously close to going broke

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    I thought about that. That's why I think Christie tore into Rubio in the GOP NH primary instead of going after Trump, the front runner. I don't think Warren as Sanders VP would work on the same ticket. No ideological balance, two far left progressives. No regional balance, both from the Northeast. Neither state is a swing state where the VP choice might enhance the chances of winning. I'm sure progressives would love it. Much like conservatives loved the Goldwater/Miller ticket. But at least that had regional balance. Arizona/New York.

    Warren would do nothing for Sanders if he is the nominee. Numbers wise, no help whatsoever. If Sanders and the Dems want a woman, I'd go with Klobuchar, Minnesota. Regional balance and Klobuchar is from a state, Minnesota in which Hillary won by a mere 1.5% point. A swing state. Then there is Baldwin, Wisconsin, a state Trump won in 2016 and is currently leading in the polls there over any and all possible Democratic nominees.

    Actually, I think Sanders will have a hard enough time living down his so called self description of himself as a Democratic Socialist against Trump. Trump is bound to make that one of his major campaign issues. If Trump succeeds in tying the socialist label to Sanders, whoever he chooses become irrelevant. Most Americans won't vote for a socialist. This leaves Sanders very vulnerable in my opinion. This hasn't been brought up before. This may be the reason the DNC is kind of leery of Sanders being their nominee. Just an opinion. Sanders calls himself a socialist and I'm sure that will get a lot of play come the general election campaign. Nothing like a tape of Sanders himself calling himself a Democratic Socialist. But we'll see.

    "Socialism and Atheism Still U.S. Political Liabilities"

    Socialism and Atheism Still U.S. Political Liabilities
    I guess I am just looking at it from the point of view of avoiding having the progressive (far left?) position (shared by Sanders and Warren) crushed at the DNC convention. If Sanders has DNC convention support at under 40% during round 1, I think he is not going to become the DNC nominee. Sanders having Warren's support during round 1 of the DNC convention would almost guarantee him over 40%, and possibly 45% to 47% - that may be the only way Sanders, and by extension the progressive (far left?), gets over the feeling of being snubbed and loads of them stay home during the 2020 general election (hurting down ballot demorat candidates). I share your concerns about getting independents to go for a progressive (far left?) POTUS candidate even among the "never Trump" portion of them.
    “The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists to adapt the world to himself.
    Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” ― George Bernard Shaw, Man and Superman

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    Re: Warren, Biden and Buttigieg dangerously close to going broke

    Quote Originally Posted by ttwtt78640 View Post
    All Warren did (to gain much applause) was bash Bloomberg (while she took it easy on frontrunner Sanders) - why should that make Warren's policy positions (which are very close to those of Sanders) any more appealing? Warren's best bet would be to join team Sanders in exchange for being his VP pick.
    Warren cannot insult Bernie's base and hope to win them later. Bloomburg did not present that issue.

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    Re: Warren, Biden and Buttigieg dangerously close to going broke

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    In my opinion Warren didn't do herself any good as to winning the nomination by bashing Bloomberg. Sanders is clearly number one, the front runner, Bloomberg number two. Knocking down number two a bit while allowing number one to enhance his position is no way to gain the nomination.

    It's like in baseball, your team enters the week 10 games behind the leader, 5 games out of second. After the week is over, the debate in this case. Now you're only 2 games behind second place, but 12 games behind the leader of the division. In plain English, Warren lost ground on Sanders, number one but gain on number two. But is in a worse position than before the debate started.

    One doesn't gain ground on beating up number two. One gains ground on beating or attacking number one. All one has to do is look back on the 2016 GOP NH primary when everyone attacked number two, leaving number one alone. After that debate there was no doubt Trump would be the nominee.
    They're all jockeying around for a VP seat. Warren isn't going to win and she will not be on Bloomberg's ticket, so he's ok to attack. She thinks she could be the mate of Bernie or Biden for the political punch. Buttigieg and Klobacher are the same, not going to be the nominee but may be VP.

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    Re: Warren, Biden and Buttigieg dangerously close to going broke

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    Biden has been in a free fall. Buttigieg and Warren mostly in single digits with no help for neither in Nevada and South Carolina. Warren leads in one state come Super Tuesday, her home state. She's mostly in single digits in all the rest as is Buttigieg. Klobuchar isn't any better. Yeah, if the trend holds it will be between Sanders and Bloomberg after Super Tuesday. The rest unless someone makes a huge mistake or a major event or happening occurs, in my opinion have no chance of winning. They can hang on or withdraw, I don't think it makes much difference.
    The longer some stay around and keep the dem primaries splitting between 5-7 people the more likely Bernie wins.
    I reply to almost every post. If I don't reply it is because our conversation reached a conclusion or because you are on ignore and I don't consider you worth talking to.

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    Re: Warren, Biden and Buttigieg dangerously close to going broke

    Quote Originally Posted by ttwtt78640 View Post
    I guess I am just looking at it from the point of view of avoiding having the progressive (far left?) position (shared by Sanders and Warren) crushed at the DNC convention. If Sanders has DNC convention support at under 40% during round 1, I think he is not going to become the DNC nominee. Sanders having Warren's support during round 1 of the DNC convention would almost guarantee him over 40%, and possibly 45% to 47% - that may be the only way Sanders, and by extension the progressive (far left?), gets over the feeling of being snubbed and loads of them stay home during the 2020 general election (hurting down ballot demorat candidates). I share your concerns about getting independents to go for a progressive (far left?) POTUS candidate even among the "never Trump" portion of them.
    If you're talking about an open or brokered convention, there hasn't been one since 1952. Our modern primary system almost guarantees there won't be another. There's no favorite son candidates anymore or smoke filled rooms where candidates try to obtain each state's political bosses approval of them. There were only 10-15 primaries back then, some of them non-binding.

    Looking at the the Super Tuesday States, Sanders has a huge lead in California and Vermont. Sanders leads in Texas, North Carolina, Maine, Virginia, Utah, Colorado. Warren has Massachusetts, Klobuchar is ahead in Minnesota, Bloomberg leads in Oklahoma. Those are the only Super Tuesday states I have polls on. A third of the Democratic delegates will be decided on Super Tuesday. I have nothing on Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee.

    If Sanders were to win those states he leads on Super Tuesday, he'll have close to an insurmountable lead. Everything is proportional in the democratic party primary system. some other big states later on, Sanders lead in Illinois, second to Bloomberg in Florida, second to Biden in Georgia. Sanders has a huge lead in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio, second to Biden in New York.

    Even a second place finish earns around 35-40% of the delegates. Maybe more if no other candidates receive 15% of the vote. Unless Sanders makes a huge mistake or some unforeseen event or happening occurs, if this trend holds, Sanders will have enough delegates by the end of April if not before. At least he'll have an insurmountable lead and will be the presumptive nominee.

    I'm not saying things can't change, they can in a heartbeat. But if the current trend continues at least through Super Tuesday or the end of March, I don't see anyone stopping Sanders.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: Warren, Biden and Buttigieg dangerously close to going broke

    Quote Originally Posted by Integrityrespec View Post
    They're all jockeying around for a VP seat. Warren isn't going to win and she will not be on Bloomberg's ticket, so he's ok to attack. She thinks she could be the mate of Bernie or Biden for the political punch. Buttigieg and Klobacher are the same, not going to be the nominee but may be VP.
    I don't see Sanders picking Warren. I may be old fashioned here, but a Warren pick would offer no ideological balance, no regional balance, no opportunity to pick up a swing state with the VP choice. Klobachar would be in my opinion the better choice for Sanders if he must pick one of the candidates now still in the running. Hillary won Minnesota by a mere 1.5% in 2016. Klobachar gives regional, ideological balance to the ticket, plus sowing up a swing state.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: Warren, Biden and Buttigieg dangerously close to going broke

    Quote Originally Posted by Kreton View Post
    The longer some stay around and keep the dem primaries splitting between 5-7 people the more likely Bernie wins.
    I think you're right.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: Warren, Biden and Buttigieg dangerously close to going broke

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    I think you're right.
    Mathematically he will. Math rarely lies.
    I reply to almost every post. If I don't reply it is because our conversation reached a conclusion or because you are on ignore and I don't consider you worth talking to.

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