Trump's pathway to victory currently looks rougher than a back road through the Andes. He is currently down by double digits in WI, MI and IA... and down by high single digits in PA, OH and AZ.
Tracking Trump: The President’s Standing Across America
He won in 2016 for a variety of reasons, including Russian wind at his back (which he likely to have again), but substantially because of a depressed Clinton vote (no one was excited about her).... with enough independents willing to give Trump the benefit of the doubt. The benefit is no more, however, as doubt has morphed into disapproval.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...wont-vote-trump-next-year-will-they-vote-all/
With a majority of Americans saying he is unfit for the job... Yes, Trump surprised us all in 2016, but as a consequence, substantially every national election since 2016 has gone against the Republicans, who were waxed in 2018.
The "anyone but Trump" vote is significant. Sorry, but his path to repeat is pretty rough.... and the impeding economic slowdown is going to result in a washed out bridge.
The question in 2020 will not be "will Trump lose?", as much as it will be "how bad will it be for Republicans?"