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Negotiators reach deal ‘in principle’ to avert shutdown

There is funding for a border wall-fence of 1.375 billion. So, the wall didn't fare too well in this deal.
Well - he somehow managed to spend a month shutting-down the government, to negotiate himself down from the 1.6B in the original pre-shutdown bill that was ready for his signature! :doh
 
I don't think it's that simple especially in light of the demand that a cap on the number of illegal immigrants detained, awaiting trial or deportation, in federal custody is "on the table". Would anyone think that a cap on the number of US citizens detained, awaiting trial or sentencing, in federal, state, or local custody would be a good policy?

I repeat that the bed cap argument, tho very tricky for democrats, is an attempt to get Trump to go the route of more immigration judges, more rapid deportations, focusing on getting rid of criminal aliens rather than jailing for months an illegal who has been here with a spotless record for years. But this will be easy to demagogue with sound bites or tweets, as Trump has already done.
 
Trump cannot veto it. It will be his political demise.

As I've been saying from the day he reopened the government three weeks ago, if he gets a bill he will sign it and either:

1] Claim victory

or,

2] Declare an emergency

Recently he's apparently been looking at pilfering funds from other departments, so he may try and sneak that in there - too.
You're right. Trump can't veto it but he will borrow the money from other areas of the budget.
 
Between your two predictions, why choose? He's likely to do both.
Thanks for asking.

My gut feeling? He's going to do a trick on #1. He'll declare he's got some money to start, and he'll make-up the rest from somewhere else using smoke & mirrors to snow his base.
 
I'd be inclined to allow the people on the front lines of this, the CBP and ICE allocate whatever funds they receive to what they believe to be the best effect.
You gotta figure that they are dealing with this day in and day out, and over the course of years of doing different things know what is most effective.


A physical border, it has been reported, forces the traffic to ports of entry, which, if properly equipped, have a good chance to intercept the illegal smuggling of people and contraband, which is the objective, is it not?
Actually, I think the bolded is a great idea.
 
I heard the committee is offering $1.5 to $2.0 billion for 55 miles in the Rio Grand Valley. IMHO, Trump's not likely to take an offer of less than half of his initial demand. He may surprise me, however.
The Rio Grande Valley was chosen due to it not requiring eminent domain. Essentially, they're giving Trump his monument to himself as cheaply and feasibly as possible!
 
Ditto, surely Trump isn't that dumb. His polls dropped ten percent last time, how far does he want to push it? That said, who knows just how dumb he is?

But you're right, he has other options. He can always declare victory (lie) anyway or go with an 'emergency' that looks pretty bad but at least won't close the shop again. Or as you said, find a way to [mis]appropriate the funds from elsewhere.

Either way it doesn't equal a wall. They'll dig a few post holes with the first few billion and then have to fight again for the next round of funding. And the next and next after that, till long after he's out of office, two terms or not. And who will carry the trump tiki torch then?
Yep. I think yours is a great analysis, Couldn't agree more. :thumbs:
 
Source: (Politico) Negotiators reach deal ‘in principle’ to avert shutdown

Alright - not a lot to work with in terms of details, but the news has been flying across the net & cable. So, I thought I'd post something to share the good news!

And for reference: It's 9:03 EST, and the news broke around 25 minutes ago, as can be seen by the 8:40 EST timestamp on the Political update.

Predictions, anyone?

Well....

the tentative deal includes $1.375 billion for physical barriers — a type of fencing that resembles the “steel slats” that Trump has specifically called for, according to a congressional aide briefed on the talks. It includes a total of 55 miles, which is just 9 miles shy of Trump’s last budget request.

In exchange, Democrats agreed to drop their demand to restrict the number of people who can be detained by Immigration and Custom Enforcement at a time. Negotiators agreed to fund a total of 40,520 detention beds for ICE, a roughly 17 percent reduction from current levels, the aide said.

But one Republican source was quick to dispute Democrats' account, saying the $1.375 billion in barrier funding can be used for "new miles of border wall."


This seems closer to something Trump would agree to. Now if the Republican "source" would just "shut up!" and allow this to go through without jinxing it...perhaps future compromises can be reached as well.
 
I'll predict the agreement is not to Trump's liking, or they be running it across town with sirens blaring, loudspeakers and Alexas cranked to 11. Everyone else knows already.

I think this must be a teeny tiny bit like governing in North Korea. Having arrived at a (presumably) reasonable agreement, we must all now wait with bated breath to see if our master is feeling reasonable today.
I think you're right with the bolded, though in terms of pretending to indulge the fantasies of the emperor who has no clothes!
 
I repeat that the bed cap argument, tho very tricky for democrats, is an attempt to get Trump to go the route of more immigration judges, more rapid deportations, focusing on getting rid of criminal aliens rather than jailing for months an illegal who has been here with a spotless record for years. But this will be easy to demagogue with sound bites or tweets, as Trump has already done.
I think the bolded may indeed be accurate, and the most humane way to handle this.
 
You're right. Trump can't veto it but he will borrow the money from other areas of the budget.

That's not how budgeting works. He doesn't get a pot of money he can move around as he sees fit.
 
See, this is why I have a hard time taking Trump seriously on his wall.

Why fight for this huge project that will take tons of money, a decade or more of time, and God only knows how much maintenance, yet not mandate E-Verify? It's free (already funded), it's in place, and it's 100% functional.

If he were serious about saving American jobs, he'd do it (in my opinion).

Trump did discuss increasing work visas recently. Problem is, people (men) from Mexico used to get work visas, come here and work, and then go home. Now, they're not going home.
How to deal with that?
We need workers but migrants are taking advantage of any chance to get her, and then stay.
 
Well....




This seems closer to something Trump would agree to. Now if the Republican "source" would just "shut up!" and allow this to go through without jinxing it...perhaps future compromises can be reached as well.
Huh? That's lower than the Senate's pre-shutdown bill's 1.6B, and a significant reduction in ICE beds from current levels. It seems to me Trump is getting fleeced, here!
 
Hmm. The Madness.

It's at the border.
It's Madness to hamstring law enforcement agencies with the bed cap turning the entire nation in the sanctuary nation, forcing the law enforcement agencies to turn lose illegal aliens who have been arrested on crimes in addition to their illegal entry crimes.

If they run out of beds in the border detention facilities, why on earth would they turn any detainees loose on this side of the border? Does that make any sense? Wouldn't they bus them south? Isn't that what the Obama administration did with the ones who had criminal records? Didn't GW do the same? Why wouldn't the Trump administration do that, too?
 
That's not how budgeting works. He doesn't get a pot of money he can move around as he sees fit.
Yeah, but he may have some small amounts he can shift around if not specifically prohibited by Congress. But if he signs the new bill, his "shifting around" will be all smoke & mirrors to placate his base.
 
Trump did discuss increasing work visas recently. Problem is, people (men) from Mexico used to get work visas, come here and work, and then go home. Now, they're not going home.
How to deal with that?
We need workers but migrants are taking advantage of any chance to get her, and then stay.
He's not only increasing those visas, but also H1Bs and offering them a path to citizenship! That's why I can't take him seriously.
 
Negotiators reach deal ‘in principle’ to avert shutdown

When they purportedly stopped talking over the weekend, they were essentially at that point of having reached an "in principle" agreement. Neither Congressional Dems nor GOP-ers want another shutdown; thus they wouldn't have taken some "me time" had they not reached that point. Even taking some time to refresh, you can be sure emails and phone calls were zooming back and forth among Congressional negotiators, departmental budget "geeks," and CBO modelers all weekend long. What's less certain is how involved WH personnel, and Trump in particular, were.
 
If they run out of beds in the border detention facilities, why on earth would they turn any detainees loose on this side of the border? Does that make any sense? Wouldn't they bus them south? Isn't that what the Obama administration did with the ones who had criminal records? Didn't GW do the same? Why wouldn't the Trump administration do that, too?
Problem is: Approximate 30% apprehended claim asylum.
 
Huh? That's lower than the Senate's pre-shutdown bill's 1.6B, and a significant reduction in ICE beds from current levels. It seems to me Trump is getting fleeced, here!

Ahh...I misread. I thought this was another C.R. which would allow further negotiations down the road. If this is all they are going to offer and there is no chance for more in the not too distant future, then Trump might not agree to it after all.
 
See, this is why I have a hard time taking Trump seriously on his wall.

Why fight for this huge project that will take tons of money, a decade or more of time, and God only knows how much maintenance, yet not mandate E-Verify? It's free (already funded), it's in place, and it's 100% functional.

If he were serious about saving American jobs, he'd do it (in my opinion).

I think you know the answer, but it's because business people like Trump who have hired illegals for years, decades, because they're good workers, dependable, for low pay, don't want it.

Seriously, Trump is the poster boy for why we have an immigration "problem." It's not a problem at all for the donor class, but a money making feature to have illegals work, because they business owners lots of MONEY. Trump is typical with regard to hiring illegals - been doing it for decades - he's just the biggest hypocrite there is on the issue and none of his followers care.
 
Ahh...I misread. I thought this was another C.R. which would allow further negotiations down the road. If this is all they are going to offer and there is no chance for more in the not too distant future, then Trump might not agree to it after all.
But I'm not sure what choice he has? He has to sign it, as far as I can see. He will not survive politically, if he shuts it down again.

I'm saying he'll sign it, and claim he has found other funds elsewhere to make-up the difference. If he still gets flack from his base, he'll then add some kind of emergency action. But I very much believe he'll sign it.
 
I think you know the answer, but it's because business people like Trump who have hired illegals for years, decades, because they're good workers, dependable, for low pay, don't want it.

Seriously, Trump is the poster boy for why we have an immigration "problem." It's not a problem at all for the donor class, but a money making feature to have illegals work, because they business owners lots of MONEY. Trump is typical with regard to hiring illegals - been doing it for decades - he's just the biggest hypocrite there is on the issue and none of his followers care.
Not just this, but his whole Presidency is a sham, just like he.
 
Well....

This seems closer to something Trump would agree to. Now if the Republican "source" would just "shut up!" and allow this to go through without jinxing it...perhaps future compromises can be reached as well.

The article is slightly misleading but it points out how crazy Trump's actions were with the shutdown, and how badly he screwed the GOP in Congress. His official WH budget request for DHS back in Feb or March 2018 was for $1.6 billion and 64 miles of wall. That's all he asked for. Congress essentially said, OK, you got it.

Then Ann Coulter got mad, and Trump got up one morning in December 2018 and upped the official OR ELSE!! request from $1.6B to nearly $6 billion, then shut government down for a month when Congress didn't immediately grant this new request for an additional $4B that wasn't formally asked for by the White House until January 2019....

So he hung Congress out to dry, not to mention the country, government workers, etc. all because he was too incompetent to communicate in a rational way with his own allies in Congress.
 
If they run out of beds in the border detention facilities, why on earth would they turn any detainees loose on this side of the border? Does that make any sense? Wouldn't they bus them south? Isn't that what the Obama administration did with the ones who had criminal records? Didn't GW do the same? Why wouldn't the Trump administration do that, too?

Agreed. It doesn't make any sense. But that'd be exactly what would happen.
After all, these people arrested for crimes over and above illegal entry, can't be detained (no beds), can't be deported (haven't had their immigration hearing), where else would you release them to?
 
The saying is no longer "Build the Wall" it's "Finish The Wall".

Just an FYI.
 
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