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15 percentage point difference between Gallup and Rasmussen polls

Cameron

Cameron

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If you look on the polls page of realclearpolitics today (sorry can’t link atm) you will see that Gallup is reporting the spread of Trump’s approval rating as Disapprove +14, whereas the equivalent Rasmussen poll is Approve +1.

I think that may be the biggest difference I’ve ever seen between approval polls.
 
Cameron said:
If you look on the polls page of realclearpolitics today (sorry can’t link atm) you will see that Gallup the spread of Trump’s approval rating as Disapprove +14, whereas the equivalent Rasmussen poll is Approve +1.

I think that may be the biggest difference I’ve ever seen between approval polls.
Click to expand...

Just look at who is doing the polling, Rasmussen is a joke.
 
Cameron said:
If you look on the polls page of realclearpolitics today (sorry can’t link atm) you will see that Gallup is reporting the spread of Trump’s approval rating as Disapprove +14, whereas the equivalent Rasmussen poll is Approve +1.

I think that may be the biggest difference I’ve ever seen between approval polls.
Click to expand...

RCP is the average of all polls they collect during that period. So push polls are intermixed with phone polls.
Rasmussin does their own polls with their own private sample.

They are oranges and tangerines.
 
Rasmussen wants to inspire Trumpists to get to the polls for the midterm.
 
chuckiechan said:
RCP is the average of all polls they collect during that period. So push polls are intermixed with phone polls.
Rasmussin does their own polls with their own private sample.

They are oranges and tangerines.
Click to expand...

The methodology Ras uses is fatally flawed since they use a LIKELY VOTER group as opposed to ALL AMERICANS. Likely voters is fine for elections. It is far too narrow for a poll measuring Americans support for a sitting president as Americans includes those who regularly vote and those who do not. excluding non likely voters skews the poll and thus we get outlier results from Rasmussen.
 
haymarket said:
The methodology Ras uses is fatally flawed since they use a LIKELY VOTER group as opposed to ALL AMERICANS. Likely voters is fine for elections. It is far too narrow for a poll measuring Americans support for a sitting president as Americans includes those who regularly vote and those who do not. excluding non likely voters skews the poll and thus we get outlier results from Rasmussen.
Click to expand...

Thats a good point, but why should care about those who dont vote?
 
chuckiechan said:
Thats a good point, but why should care about those who dont vote?
Click to expand...

If the poll is suppose to measure the support of the American people, voters or non voters would be included as they are part of the American people.

If you are measuring only possible election trends - then it is all right to limit yourself to likely voters.

There is a difference and it is an important one that skews the results when you use the methodology applied to one to the other when it should not be applied.
 
chuckiechan said:
RCP is the average of all polls they collect during that period. So push polls are intermixed with phone polls.
Rasmussin does their own polls with their own private sample.

They are oranges and tangerines.
Click to expand...

WTf is the difference? Like the lower case “f” in WTf........same just smaller.......
 
Cameron said:
If you look on the polls page of realclearpolitics today (sorry can’t link atm) you will see that Gallup is reporting the spread of Trump’s approval rating as Disapprove +14, whereas the equivalent Rasmussen poll is Approve +1.

I think that may be the biggest difference I’ve ever seen between approval polls.
Click to expand...

This is a bad bad sign....the variance I think is mostly about the different guesses as to group identity of who is going to show up to vote.

If the D's dont take the House be ready for a complete melt-down of the Left, because they believe that it is in the bag based upon the polls that they are consuming.
 
haymarket said:
The methodology Ras uses is fatally flawed since they use a LIKELY VOTER group as opposed to ALL AMERICANS. Likely voters is fine for elections. It is far too narrow for a poll measuring Americans support for a sitting president as Americans includes those who regularly vote and those who do not. excluding non likely voters skews the poll and thus we get outlier results from Rasmussen.
Click to expand...

Rasmussen is hardly the only one who uses likely voters in their samples. There's also YouGov, LATimes, SurveyMonkey, Marist, Ipsos and a bunch of others. The likely or registered voters is the metric I've always followed on 538, and currently trump's approval is 44%.

Count me in among those who think that looking at the responses of people more likely to vote is going result in me being somewhat less surprised by the election results.

Speaking of 538, they once wrote an article explaining what the hell was up with Rasmussen, but I can't find it anymore.
 
Floridafan said:
Just look at who is doing the polling, Rasmussen is a joke.
Click to expand...

Yeah... look... the pollster who got 2016 correct... while the Democrat News Corporation (DNC) got it miserably and laughably wrong.

Remember the loooooong faces of the Leftist DNC pundits on election night 2016? They believed the bull**** pollsters.
 
Helix said:
Rasmussen wants to inspire Trumpists to get to the polls for the midterm.
Click to expand...

Or the Leftists with their Fake Blue Wave, and skewed polls are trying to suppress the right and bolster the Left. That’s been the tradition.

Russia, Russia, Russia... Impeachment, Kavanaugh, La Invasión are more than enough to get R’s to the polls.
 
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Hawkeye10 said:
This is a bad bad sign....the variance I think is mostly about the different guesses as to group identity of who is going to show up to vote.

If the D's dont take the House be ready for a complete melt-down of the Left, because they believe that it is in the bag based upon the polls that they are consuming.
Click to expand...

The Blue Wave has already turned into a yellow stream and brown streak when looking at current voting info. :)
 
Cardinal said:
Rasmussen is hardly the only one who uses likely voters in their samples. There's also YouGov, LATimes, SurveyMonkey, Marist, Ipsos and a bunch of others. The likely or registered voters is the metric I've always followed on 538, and currently trump's approval is 44%.

Count me in among those who think that looking at the responses of people more likely to vote is going result in me being somewhat less surprised by the election results.

Speaking of 538, they once wrote an article explaining what the hell was up with Rasmussen, but I can't find it anymore.
Click to expand...

Rasmussen was accurate in 2016, whereas 538 was laughably and phenomenally wrong.
 
zimmer said:
The Blue Wave has already turned into a yellow stream and brown streak when looking at current voting info. :)
Click to expand...

I am putting no stock in that. If the D's dont take the House that can only be because they are colossally inept, which has been true all along the trail here recently but this would be the last straw......all of the top leadership would have to go.

We The people will insist.
 
zimmer said:
Rasmussen was accurate in 2016, whereas 538 was laughably and phenomenally wrong.
Click to expand...
Rasmussen had Clinton at +2... so stop lying.

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Cardinal said:
Rasmussen is hardly the only one who uses likely voters in their samples. There's also YouGov, LATimes, SurveyMonkey, Marist, Ipsos and a bunch of others. The likely or registered voters is the metric I've always followed on 538, and currently trump's approval is 44%.

Count me in among those who think that looking at the responses of people more likely to vote is going result in me being somewhat less surprised by the election results.

Speaking of 538, they once wrote an article explaining what the hell was up with Rasmussen, but I can't find it anymore.
Click to expand...

As uses LIKELY VOTERS for polls on presidential support when it is NOT an election that is being measured. That is why their results are rejected by many.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
This is a bad bad sign....the variance I think is mostly about the different guesses as to group identity of who is going to show up to vote.

If the D's dont take the House be ready for a complete melt-down of the Left, because they believe that it is in the bag based upon the polls that they are consuming.
Click to expand...
The left is going to melt down either way. Win or lose their hearts are full of hate and revenge

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I467 using Tapatalk
 
Cardinal said:
Rasmussen is hardly the only one who uses likely voters in their samples. There's also YouGov, LATimes, SurveyMonkey, Marist, Ipsos and a bunch of others. The likely or registered voters is the metric I've always followed on 538, and currently trump's approval is 44%.

Count me in among those who think that looking at the responses of people more likely to vote is going result in me being somewhat less surprised by the election results.

Speaking of 538, they once wrote an article explaining what the hell was up with Rasmussen, but I can't find it anymore.
Click to expand...

Trump at 42%..... 6 in 7 the Dems take the House; and 6 in 7 the Reps keep the Senate.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/

On the 538.com methodology and ranking of polls (538 does not rank Rasmussen very high)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-pollsters-to-trust-in-2018/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

The wiki article on Rasmussen deals with some of the controversy of that poll as well as Nate Silver's past criticism of the poll. Unfortunately some of the links to the sourcing of the Wiki are now dead links.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports

zimmer said:
Rasmussen was accurate in 2016, whereas 538 was laughably and phenomenally wrong.
Click to expand...

No, 538 had a 70-30 chance for a Clinton win. When you have a 1/3 chance of winning and you win, the oddsmakers were not wrong.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
 
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trouble13 said:
The left is going to melt down either way. Win or lose their hearts are full of hate and revenge

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I467 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I will be more than happy with a House win.... I'm especially going to enjoy my 10 year Republican representative run from office. He was generally a Trump flunky.
 
Biggest problem with Rasmussen is that their bias or polling problem is obvious. One day the Trump approval is up 2% and the next day down 3.... wild swings over very short time is not good.

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PeteEU said:
Rasmussen had Clinton at +2... so stop lying.

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Click to expand...



I wonder how long it will take before you realize how idiotic your post was?
 
zimmer said:
Rasmussen was accurate in 2016, whereas 538 was laughably and phenomenally wrong.
Click to expand...

No, 538 wasn't laughably and phenomenally wrong.

Let's put it this way - a player whose hitting average is about .280 comes to the plate and gets a hit, are you shocked? That's the same odds 538 gave Trump.
 
Cameron said:
If you look on the polls page of realclearpolitics today (sorry can’t link atm) you will see that Gallup is reporting the spread of Trump’s approval rating as Disapprove +14, whereas the equivalent Rasmussen poll is Approve +1.

I think that may be the biggest difference I’ve ever seen between approval polls.
Click to expand...

Rasmussen has been accused of doctoring data to favor Republicans for many years. That's why they are usually so off in their predictions.
 
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