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Dems see blue 'tsunami' in House as Senate path narrows

MovingPictures said:
The NYT's has been showing live results of their polls and for whatever reason, they spit out the most bizzare results sometimes, lacking the quality of many other pollsters, and are way off the generic ballot.

Basically, the 538 model is based off of a combo of the generic ballot and local district polls. As it is hard to find polls for many House races at any given time, 538 is pretty inclusive in who the include in their estimates.But because they've moved a few races we all assumed were doomed to fall into a DNC control into having bizzare Republican leads, it now seems to be influencing 538's model in a way that might very well be noise.

Usually, the last two weeks are when everything becomes clear, and the noise is gone.
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Agreed about polls really shouldn't be given too much until about 2 weeks before the election. The only thing observable about them is the way the trends are moving this far out.

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Fenton said:
Wait, so you think average Americans are OK with the Democrats falsely accusing a innocent man of sexual assault for political purposes ?
They're not Ok with it. They're disgusted. If a majority of Americans bought into and supported this Left wing depravity Kavanugh would have never been confirmed

Hell, Heitkamp would be in the lead and Manchin wouldn't have voted against his party's wishes
All the Left did was energize the Right and alienate independents right before the midterms.
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They sure did, and like the 2016 pollsters, they have a serious statistical probability issues, with likely voters, registered voters, and generic polls. Polls are only as good, like any data set, as the data they capture and interpret. I suspect that, dems are lying to pollsters, as too are republicans, hell maybe even independents might be lying. Truth is that, in all likelihood going forward, and as best as I can tell, the "margin for error", which is normally +/- 3 needs to be updated to +/- 10.. LOL Which for any serious statistician is virtually useless.. ;)


Tim-
 
MovingPictures said:
The NYT's has been showing live results of their polls and for whatever reason, they spit out the most bizzare results sometimes, lacking the quality of many other pollsters, and are way off the generic ballot.

Basically, the 538 model is based off of a combo of the generic ballot and local district polls. As it is hard to find polls for many House races at any given time, 538 is pretty inclusive in who the include in their estimates.But because they've moved a few races we all assumed were doomed to fall into a DNC control into having bizzare Republican leads, it now seems to be influencing 538's model in a way that might very well be noise.

Usually, the last two weeks are when everything becomes clear, and the noise is gone.
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but think about this for a minute. Regardless of which poll one tends to believe or even which model one likes over another, if only 4% of the data received is fake, that upsets the entire polling percentage by a factor of 30.. A factor of 30, think about that..


Tim-
 
Blue Dog said:
Based on recent history, the Democrats have the advantage going into the midterms. The political party that holds both the WH and Congress tends to take losses in the midterms. Let’s see how this plays out.
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Where history isn't exactly as useful as it once was is the fact that states are now much more politically homogeneous than they used to be. In addition, laws that remove voting rights for minorities, poor people and any other demographics known to vote Democrat are much more entrenched than at any other point in my lifetime. There is zero doubt that if purging voter registrations, voter id laws that target known Democrat demographics and gerrymandering didn't exist the outlook would be very different. And then of course there's the matter that none of us have any idea how secure our voting systems are anymore.
 
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