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You have five current Democratic senators from deep red states, Tester, Montana, Heitkamp, North Dakota, Donnelly, Indiana, McCaskill, Missouri along with Manchin from West Virginia where a nay vote on confirmation could, I repeat, could cost them their seat. All five are in very tight races. Heitkamp trails by a couple of points, Tester, Donnelly, McCaskill are up by only a couple in their latest polls. All within the margin of error which means the races are basically tied. Only Manchin has a good decent lead averaging around 8 points.
But Flake just said he'd vote yes, and he's not even running. He's retiring.