Vox: Democrats Just Flipped a Kentucky State Legislature Seat in a District Trump Won by 49 Points

Chomsky · Feb 21, 2018

Democrat Linda Belcher was just pronounced the winner of the special election in Kentucky’s House District 49, a seat that Donald Trump carried by a 72-23 margin in 2016 and that went 66-33 for Mitt Romney in 2012.

Her 68-32 victory represents a ridiculous 45-point improvement on Hillary Clinton’s performance. In fuller context, it’s a little less ridiculous than that. Belcher had previously represented this district in the state legislature, lost a very narrow 50.4-49.6 race in 2016; then the man who defeated her, Dan Johnson, killed himself while under a cloud of sexual assault allegations. The GOP nominated Johnson’s widow and Belcher reclaimed her old seat.

Still, Belcher improved by 18 points on her own margin from just 15 months ago — a very clear sign of Democrats’ down-ballot recovery in the Trump era

Source: Vox: Democrats just flipped a Kentucky state legislature seat in a district Trump won by 49 points

I eschewed my usual posting of breaking news in the BN-MSN sub-forum, for here in BN non-MSN, because unlike the mainstream sources Vox had hard and widely inclusive numbers, and they were also nicely placed in the lead paragraphs. Also, I must give NIMBY credit for bringing this election to my attention tonight.

So, wow! Yeah, it's a special election under odd circumstances, but the numbers are staggering, and they show a continuation of the general pattern we're seeing in elections during the Trump Presidency.

In a red state and red district, a district that went +49 Trump & +33 Romney, the Dem prevailed by +46, which was +45 on HRC.

Who knows? It's a special election, therefore by it's definition it's a unique entity. But it still has to make one think, and is probably putting a smile on Dem's faces.

I can't wait for November. I think it's going to be a nail-biter!

Linc · Feb 21, 2018

Just more of what we recently saw with the big flip in Missouri.
With all of the flips in Virginia. With a Democratic Senator in Alabama.

With 26 GOP governors up this year, 13 term-limited.
With well over 30 GOP House members moving on; and to add in the Pennsylvania remap.
With five legitimate opportunities to flip GOP Senate seats.

I could go on endlessly, but you get the idea.
I could talk of the GOP opportunities, but I don't feel like it.

Each new day of this GOP insanity brings us closer to sanity again ...

MovingPictures · Feb 21, 2018

It's still too early to call this a Democratic wave, but it looks promising.

However, lets remember that the Democrats have blown bigger leads. The only saving grace is that this WH is constant drama, which in the months leading up to the election could prove disastrous for Republicans.

Oborosen · Feb 21, 2018

MovingPictures said:
It's still too early to call this a Democratic wave, but it looks promising.

However, lets remember that the Democrats have blown bigger leads. The only saving grace is that this WH is constant drama, which in the months leading up to the election could prove disastrous for Republicans.

It is Drama, though if we can bet on one thing. Trump is going to find a way to capitalize on most, if not all of it. Especially when the first chance comes up to make the Dems eat crow.

Utility Man · Feb 21, 2018

"They will crawl over broken glass in November to vote."

Ted Cruz

HowardBThiname · Feb 21, 2018

Chomsky said:
Source: Vox: Democrats just flipped a Kentucky state legislature seat in a district Trump won by 49 points

I eschewed my usual posting of breaking news in the BN-MSN sub-forum, for here in BN non-MSN, because unlike the mainstream sources Vox had hard and widely inclusive numbers, and they were also nicely placed in the lead paragraphs. Also, I must give NIMBY credit for bringing this election to my attention tonight.

So, wow! Yeah, it's a special election under odd circumstances, but the numbers are staggering, and they show a continuation of the general pattern we're seeing in elections during the Trump Presidency.

In a red state and red district, a district that went +49 Trump & +33 Romney, the Dem prevailed by +46, which was +45 on HRC.

Who knows? It's a special election, therefore by it's definition it's a unique entity. But it still has to make one think, and is probably putting a smile on Dem's faces.

I can't wait for November. I think it's going to be a nail-biter!

If the mid-terms run true to form, democrats have a good shot at making big gains in both the House and the Senate. At least, that's common for mid-terms. It's what happened during both Obama-tenure terms. Then, we typically see a stalemate in Congress until the next presidential election.

The GOP will likely be pushing to get as much done as possible before that happens.

haymarket · Feb 21, 2018

Chomsky said:
Source: Vox: Democrats just flipped a Kentucky state legislature seat in a district Trump won by 49 points

I eschewed my usual posting of breaking news in the BN-MSN sub-forum, for here in BN non-MSN, because unlike the mainstream sources Vox had hard and widely inclusive numbers, and they were also nicely placed in the lead paragraphs. Also, I must give NIMBY credit for bringing this election to my attention tonight.

So, wow! Yeah, it's a special election under odd circumstances, but the numbers are staggering, and they show a continuation of the general pattern we're seeing in elections during the Trump Presidency.

In a red state and red district, a district that went +49 Trump & +33 Romney, the Dem prevailed by +46, which was +45 on HRC.

Who knows? It's a special election, therefore by it's definition it's a unique entity. But it still has to make one think, and is probably putting a smile on Dem's faces.

I can't wait for November. I think it's going to be a nail-biter!

Let us hope that this trend holds and the Dems take at least the House in the November voting. If they fail to do that, we are all screwed ten ways to Sunday as Trump will take is a a sign there is no control over him and the opposition to him will take a ugly turn and things could get really bad.

Perotista · Feb 21, 2018

Chomsky said:
Source: Vox: Democrats just flipped a Kentucky state legislature seat in a district Trump won by 49 points

I eschewed my usual posting of breaking news in the BN-MSN sub-forum, for here in BN non-MSN, because unlike the mainstream sources Vox had hard and widely inclusive numbers, and they were also nicely placed in the lead paragraphs. Also, I must give NIMBY credit for bringing this election to my attention tonight.

So, wow! Yeah, it's a special election under odd circumstances, but the numbers are staggering, and they show a continuation of the general pattern we're seeing in elections during the Trump Presidency.

In a red state and red district, a district that went +49 Trump & +33 Romney, the Dem prevailed by +46, which was +45 on HRC.

Who knows? It's a special election, therefore by it's definition it's a unique entity. But it still has to make one think, and is probably putting a smile on Dem's faces.

I can't wait for November. I think it's going to be a nail-biter!

History shows that the party in power, by that I mean holds the white house always loses seats in congress, state legislatures and governorship. This has happened to every president. Now how many varies greatly. From small loses to huge loses as seen during Obama. I think one of the reasons is the independent voter who shifts loyalty from one party to the other. Anything that goes wrong in their life that can be blamed on government they get angry at government and the face of government is always the president.

So the president's party usually suffers during his reign as president. I do think the stars, moon and the planets are aligned for a huge Democratic wave this midterm. Call the wave if it happens the independent anti Trump-persona election. They are roughly split on his policies and issues, but they hate his obnoxious, egotistical, temper tantrum throwing via tweeter, his over all unpresidential behavior.

Chomsky · Feb 21, 2018

Perotista said:
History shows that the party in power, by that I mean holds the white house always loses seats in congress, state legislatures and governorship. This has happened to every president. Now how many varies greatly. From small loses to huge loses as seen during Obama. I think one of the reasons is the independent voter who shifts loyalty from one party to the other. Anything that goes wrong in their life that can be blamed on government they get angry at government and the face of government is always the president.

So the president's party usually suffers during his reign as president. I do think the stars, moon and the planets are aligned for a huge Democratic wave this midterm. Call the wave if it happens the independent anti Trump-persona election. They are roughly split on his policies and issues, but they hate his obnoxious, egotistical, temper tantrum throwing via tweeter, his over all unpresidential behavior.

If a Dem wave occurs, I think it will have a component of that which I bolded in your post.

But it will also have a component of strong Dem mobilization. Of course, the mobilization is due to the same Trump hatred as component #1 above.

But yeah, it's not just about policy, but about disgust for the man as a human being. I think some of the Trump supporters that believe the Dem animus is due to the sour grapes of losing, don't realize there really is a segment that absolutely cannot stand the man for what & who he is. It's tough to get votes from people that don't like you. Ask Hillary. The Dems that didn't like her (and that's many!) didn't come out, and the rest is history.

I do suspect many Dems (& Indies) that didn't come out to vote against Trump, now that they've seen him as President, will not make that same mistake again.

Perotista · Feb 21, 2018

Chomsky said:
If a Dem wave occurs, I think it will have a component of that which I bolded in your post.

But it will also have a component of strong Dem mobilization. Of course, the mobilization is due to the same Trump hatred as component #1 above.

But yeah, it's not just about policy, but about disgust for the man as a human being. I think some of the Trump supporters that believe the Dem animus is due to the sour grapes of losing, don't realize there really is a segment that absolutely cannot stand the man for what & who he is. It's tough to get votes from people that don't like you. Ask Hillary. The Dems that didn't like her (and that's many!) didn't come out, and the rest is history.

I do suspect many Dems (& Indies) that didn't come out to vote against Trump, now that they've seen him as President, will not make that same mistake again.

Turnout is always the key, both the numbers and who turns out. Our elections have average roughly 53-55% for presidential and 35-38% for the midterms. Once again it is the party out of power, non-holder of the white house that is usually a bit more eager to register they dissatisfaction with those in power.

I do think you're right about a large Democratic turnout due to hatred of Trump. Independents, I'm not so sure. Whereas if Trump were on the ballot, then I do think they would turn out. But he isn't. Independents aren't as political as those who affiliate or identify with either major party. They don't follow politics like those who are Republicans and Democrats do. They tend to skip the midterms a lot more than either party's members. Unless they are really, really angry. If they like the status quo, they are more likely to stay home. If not, to the polls they go.

History also show that in presidential years independents who vote make up 35% of the total vote count, give or take a point of two or have since 2004. During mid terms if independents who vote make up 25% of the total vote count, that is a huge turnout for independents. Usually somewhere between 20-25%.

But they swing wildly between parties. Voting against the party in power in midterms is what they usually do. In 2006, independent's went for the Democratic congressional candidates 57-39 over the Republicans and the Democrats took back congress. In 2010, just four years later, independents went for the Republican congressional candidates 57-41 and the Democrats lost 63 house seats and 6 senate seats. In 2014 independents once again went for the Republican congressional candidates 54-44. I don't have the 2002 figures. But that is a unique year as the congressional results in which the GOP gained seats was more a result of the unifying actions of 9-11 than a like or dislike of the Republican congress and president. The country united behind Bush II and his party.

The point being is not to expect the independent voter to turnout in large numbers to register their dislike of Trump. He isn't on the ballot. But those independents who do turn out I am sure will be voting Democratic along the 2006 lines.

tres borrachos · Feb 21, 2018

Chomsky said:
Source: Vox: Democrats just flipped a Kentucky state legislature seat in a district Trump won by 49 points

I eschewed my usual posting of breaking news in the BN-MSN sub-forum, for here in BN non-MSN, because unlike the mainstream sources Vox had hard and widely inclusive numbers, and they were also nicely placed in the lead paragraphs. Also, I must give NIMBY credit for bringing this election to my attention tonight.

So, wow! Yeah, it's a special election under odd circumstances, but the numbers are staggering, and they show a continuation of the general pattern we're seeing in elections during the Trump Presidency.

In a red state and red district, a district that went +49 Trump & +33 Romney, the Dem prevailed by +46, which was +45 on HRC.

Who knows? It's a special election, therefore by it's definition it's a unique entity. But it still has to make one think, and is probably putting a smile on Dem's faces.

I can't wait for November. I think it's going to be a nail-biter!

This doesn't bode well for the Republicans.

danielpalos · Feb 21, 2018

Chomsky said:
Source: Vox: Democrats just flipped a Kentucky state legislature seat in a district Trump won by 49 points

I eschewed my usual posting of breaking news in the BN-MSN sub-forum, for here in BN non-MSN, because unlike the mainstream sources Vox had hard and widely inclusive numbers, and they were also nicely placed in the lead paragraphs. Also, I must give NIMBY credit for bringing this election to my attention tonight.

So, wow! Yeah, it's a special election under odd circumstances, but the numbers are staggering, and they show a continuation of the general pattern we're seeing in elections during the Trump Presidency.

In a red state and red district, a district that went +49 Trump & +33 Romney, the Dem prevailed by +46, which was +45 on HRC.

Who knows? It's a special election, therefore by it's definition it's a unique entity. But it still has to make one think, and is probably putting a smile on Dem's faces.

I can't wait for November. I think it's going to be a nail-biter!

one election or full body massage at a time.

Moderate Right · Feb 21, 2018

Chomsky said:
Source: Vox: Democrats just flipped a Kentucky state legislature seat in a district Trump won by 49 points

I eschewed my usual posting of breaking news in the BN-MSN sub-forum, for here in BN non-MSN, because unlike the mainstream sources Vox had hard and widely inclusive numbers, and they were also nicely placed in the lead paragraphs. Also, I must give NIMBY credit for bringing this election to my attention tonight.

So, wow! Yeah, it's a special election under odd circumstances, but the numbers are staggering, and they show a continuation of the general pattern we're seeing in elections during the Trump Presidency.

In a red state and red district, a district that went +49 Trump & +33 Romney, the Dem prevailed by +46, which was +45 on HRC.

Who knows? It's a special election, therefore by it's definition it's a unique entity. But it still has to make one think, and is probably putting a smile on Dem's faces.

I can't wait for November. I think it's going to be a nail-biter!

I wouldn't get your hopes up on this particular election. It was a special election due to a suicide of a suspected pervert and his wife, who was in denial, ran in this special election in an area where her Democratic challenger had been in this same post a couple of times in the past and had been defeated. So, in this particular election, it really had nothing at all to do in regards to a referendum on Trump.

Chomsky · Feb 21, 2018

tres borrachos said:
This doesn't bode well for the Republicans.

Well, it's possible.

But we really don't know for sure, due to special elections being ... well ... "special".

But the signs do seem to be pointing in that direction.

jmotivator · Feb 21, 2018

Chomsky said:
Well, it's possible.

But we really don't know for sure, due to special elections being ... well ... "special".

But the signs do seem to be pointing in that direction.

Well, in general, the "signs" that we see so far require some pretty peculiar set of circumstances to be a trend in November. I think some people think the Roy Moore will be running for every House and Senate seat.

If there isn't a blue wave in November they already have a pre-built excuse too: Damn Russians!!

Chomsky · Feb 21, 2018

Moderate Right said:
I wouldn't get your hopes up on this particular election. It was a special election due to a suicide of a suspected pervert and his wife, who was in denial, ran in this special election in an area where her Democratic challenger had been in this same post a couple of times in the past and had been defeated. So, in this particular election, it really had nothing at all to do in regards to a referendum on Trump.

Yes, there were "special" circumstances, no doubt. I think this was borne-out by the huge point disparity.

But whether through running a poor GOP candidate, or facing a strong Dem candidate, the GOP once again failed to field a candidate that could produce on their home turf. It's been a relatively consistent pattern lately.

Now there is another possible angle here, and that's that Trump-supporting lower office candidates can't run as well as Trump himself. That trump himself, is the draw. And when he's on the top of the ticket, he provides coat-tails in the his districts. There might be some plausibility there. But then again, Trump won't be on the ticket in November.

Chomsky · Feb 21, 2018

jmotivator said:
Well, in general, the "signs" that we see so far require some pretty peculiar set of circumstances to be a trend in November. I think some people think the Roy Moore will be running for every House and Senate seat.

If there isn't a blue wave in November they already have a pre-built excuse too: Damn Russians!!

I surely won't deny that some of the elections like the AL senate race, and this race here in my thread, have extenuating circumstances.

But there's been around 35 or 40 elections since Trump, with all but maybe 5 or 7 going Dem. I'm thinking of those in Virginia, for example. So even with the elections with severe circumstance, I believe I detect a trend.

For me, the question is how strong of a trend? Will it be the normal out-of-power recapture? Or something bigger? I don't know. But I do believe it will be at least the normal recapture event, and has the potential to be larger.

I'm thinking 2018 will be a strong enough Dem wave to threaten the House. But I can't say if if will flip the House. As reference, a flip would require 24 seats. The normal recapture might be around 12, I'm guessing.

Chomsky · Feb 21, 2018

Perotista said:
Turnout is always the key, both the numbers and who turns out. Our elections have average roughly 53-55% for presidential and 35-38% for the midterms. Once again it is the party out of power, non-holder of the white house that is usually a bit more eager to register they dissatisfaction with those in power.

I do think you're right about a large Democratic turnout due to hatred of Trump. Independents, I'm not so sure. Whereas if Trump were on the ballot, then I do think they would turn out. But he isn't. Independents aren't as political as those who affiliate or identify with either major party. They don't follow politics like those who are Republicans and Democrats do. They tend to skip the midterms a lot more than either party's members. Unless they are really, really angry. If they like the status quo, they are more likely to stay home. If not, to the polls they go.

History also show that in presidential years independents who vote make up 35% of the total vote count, give or take a point of two or have since 2004. During mid terms if independents who vote make up 25% of the total vote count, that is a huge turnout for independents. Usually somewhere between 20-25%.

But they swing wildly between parties. Voting against the party in power in midterms is what they usually do. In 2006, independent's went for the Democratic congressional candidates 57-39 over the Republicans and the Democrats took back congress. In 2010, just four years later, independents went for the Republican congressional candidates 57-41 and the Democrats lost 63 house seats and 6 senate seats. In 2014 independents once again went for the Republican congressional candidates 54-44. I don't have the 2002 figures. But that is a unique year as the congressional results in which the GOP gained seats was more a result of the unifying actions of 9-11 than a like or dislike of the Republican congress and president. The country united behind Bush II and his party.

The point being is not to expect the independent voter to turnout in large numbers to register their dislike of Trump. He isn't on the ballot. But those independents who do turn out I am sure will be voting Democratic along the 2006 lines.

Great post, Perotista!

I have no reason to not trust your numbers, so I'm happy to accept them for now. Thank you for providing them. And based upon your numbers, you make a very strong argument. However, as you allude in your post, I believe their will be some Indies who came-out against Trump. There may not be many Indies coming-out in relation to Dems, but I think you'll see some there.

Perotista · Feb 22, 2018

Chomsky said:
Great post, Perotista!

I have no reason to not trust your numbers, so I'm happy to accept them for now. Thank you for providing them. And based upon your numbers, you make a very strong argument. However, as you allude in your post, I believe their will be some Indies who came-out against Trump. There may not be many Indies coming-out in relation to Dems, but I think you'll see some there.

I'm pretty sure at this point independents will be voting more for the Democratic congressional candidates. Independents are far from monolithic dislike of Trump as the Democrats are. Democrats show up at 10% favorable of Trump, 88% unfavorable. Independents, not being as partisan or stuck in one ideology have a 38% favorable, 48% unfavorable view of Trump. Question 80A.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/57yxejgrmo/econTabReport.pdf

I think most Democrats expect independents to much more ant-Trump than they are or have been. But one should remember Trump won the independent vote 46-42 with 12% voting third party. If the midterms are all about Trump and not local issues which midterms are at times. I would expect around a 55-45 independent split in favor of the Democratic candidates. But keep in mind independents tend to let their pocket book decide whom they will vote for. But a lot of independents who are satisfied with their pocket book might be the ones staying home. for independents, satisfaction tends to work that way especially in the midterms. That is unless they are angry as heck at the party in power. On the economy Independents approve of Trump's handling of it so far 41-38. Question 85D.

Go through the poll, lots of interesting stuff.

jmotivator · Feb 22, 2018

Chomsky said:
I surely won't deny that some of the elections like the AL senate race, and this race here in my thread, have extenuating circumstances.

But there's been around 35 or 40 elections since Trump, with all but maybe 5 or 7 going Dem. I'm thinking of those in Virginia, for example. So even with the elections with severe circumstance, I believe I detect a trend.

For me, the question is how strong of a trend? Will it be the normal out-of-power recapture? Or something bigger? I don't know. But I do believe it will be at least the normal recapture event, and has the potential to be larger.

I'm thinking 2018 will be a strong enough Dem wave to threaten the House. But I can't say if if will flip the House. As reference, a flip would require 24 seats. The normal recapture might be around 12, I'm guessing.

Well, how many of the seats going Dem were originally Dem seats? Other than Roy Moore, the federal elections in Red districts have stayed red, and the generic ballot has been trending Republican, with some actual favoring Republican when Democrats should be well in double digit advantages for a traditional "wave" election.

I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm just saying that people are reading too much into these elections with extenuating circumstances and they will be so irrationally sure of the blue wave that if it doesn't come their crazy rationalization will reach even crazier levels. At this point people were so certain that Hillary was going to win in 2016 that they believe that 13 Russians buying Facebook adds broke American Democracy.

jmotivator · Feb 22, 2018

Perotista said:
I'm pretty sure at this point independents will be voting more for the Democratic congressional candidates. Independents are far from monolithic dislike of Trump as the Democrats are. Democrats show up at 10% favorable of Trump, 88% unfavorable. Independents, not being as partisan or stuck in one ideology have a 38% favorable, 48% unfavorable view of Trump. Question 80A.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/57yxejgrmo/econTabReport.pdf

I think most Democrats expect independents to much more ant-Trump than they are or have been. But one should remember Trump won the independent vote 46-42 with 12% voting third party. If the midterms are all about Trump and not local issues which midterms are at times. I would expect around a 55-45 independent split in favor of the Democratic candidates. But keep in mind independents tend to let their pocket book decide whom they will vote for. But a lot of independents who are satisfied with their pocket book might be the ones staying home. for independents, satisfaction tends to work that way especially in the midterms. That is unless they are angry as heck at the party in power. On the economy Independents approve of Trump's handling of it so far 41-38. Question 85D.

Go through the poll, lots of interesting stuff.

All pretty accurate, which is why Republicans should be running adds showing that Democrats unanimously opposed the tax plan, show pictures of a sour Nancy Pelosi sucking her dentures rather than applaud good economic news, and all the other overt signals from the Democrats over the last 14 months that their priorities are in the DREAMers rather than the American working class. What killed Hillary's election was her dumping on the rust belt, and the Democrats have yet to learn from that.

It also doesn't help that the DNC/DCCC is losing the fund raising battle right now.

Perotista · Feb 22, 2018

jmotivator said:
All pretty accurate, which is why Republicans should be running adds showing that Democrats unanimously opposed the tax plan, show pictures of a sour Nancy Pelosi sucking her dentures rather than applaud good economic news, and all the other overt signals from the Democrats over the last 14 months that their priorities are in the DREAMers rather than the American working class. What killed Hillary's election was her dumping on the rust belt, and the Democrats have yet to learn from that.

It also doesn't help that the DNC/DCCC is losing the fund raising battle right now.

I would say regardless of how the midterm is framed, the Republicans will lose seats. One they are over extended, they now hold several traditional Democratic seats which will in all likelihood revert to the Democrats. Two, there are at this time 32 Republican house members not seeking re-election. That leaves these seats open and an open seat is a heck of a lot easier to win or switch than one with an incumbent. History isn't on the GOP side either, since FDR the party in power, the party which holds the White House has lost seats in every first midterm election with the lone exception of Bush II in 2002. But 9-11 happened then uniting the country behind Bush II and his party.

Neither congressional party is liked. 31% of all Americans have a favorable view of Democrats in congress, 52% unfavorable. On the republican side, 28% favorable 57% unfavorable. Question 98 A and B. That's not much difference. Even so, in our two party system it is the choice of one or the other when probably most want neither. Much like the 2016 presidential election. The midterm may come down to voting for the least parties candidates you want to lose. If so, that would favor the Democrats because is the face of whatever has been going good or bad or whom one is angry at.

We've been talking independents here, so one last thing. Issues, policy wise, independents are basically split on those when it come to President Trump. For some, against others. The one thing most independents hate about Trump is his persona. His very un-presidential behavior, his obnoxious tweets, call it his character. The real possibility exists that independents could like the direction Trump is taking the country, that is up. But vote against him and his party solely based on Trump's character and his persona he has shown as president. Do not underestimate that.

jmotivator · Feb 22, 2018

Perotista said:
I would say regardless of how the midterm is framed, the Republicans will lose seats. One they are over extended, they now hold several traditional Democratic seats which will in all likelihood revert to the Democrats. Two, there are at this time 32 Republican house members not seeking re-election. That leaves these seats open and an open seat is a heck of a lot easier to win or switch than one with an incumbent. History isn't on the GOP side either, since FDR the party in power, the party which holds the White House has lost seats in every first midterm election with the lone exception of Bush II in 2002. But 9-11 happened then uniting the country behind Bush II and his party.

Neither congressional party is liked. 31% of all Americans have a favorable view of Democrats in congress, 52% unfavorable. On the republican side, 28% favorable 57% unfavorable. Question 98 A and B. That's not much difference. Even so, in our two party system it is the choice of one or the other when probably most want neither. Much like the 2016 presidential election. The midterm may come down to voting for the least parties candidates you want to lose. If so, that would favor the Democrats because is the face of whatever has been going good or bad or whom one is angry at.

We've been talking independents here, so one last thing. Issues, policy wise, independents are basically split on those when it come to President Trump. For some, against others. The one thing most independents hate about Trump is his persona. His very un-presidential behavior, his obnoxious tweets, call it his character. The real possibility exists that independents could like the direction Trump is taking the country, that is up. But vote against him and his party solely based on Trump's character and his persona he has shown as president. Do not underestimate that.

I wouldn't put too much credit in a single poll, or even in the trend of a single poll. Traditionally the mid-term polls in general are in double digits against the incumbent power in the lead up to wave elections, Democrats haven't managed that convincingly at this point. I'm not saying it won't happen, but I would expect more of a flood of pro-Democrat fund raising and stronger anti-Republican polling before concluding that a real wave to be building.

Also, while there may certainly be some blue seats currently help by Republicans, I would point you to this map that shows that the Democrats could win all blue seats AND sweep all toss ups and still end up not taking the house:

https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/

Chomsky · Feb 22, 2018

Perotista said:
I'm pretty sure at this point independents will be voting more for the Democratic congressional candidates. Independents are far from monolithic dislike of Trump as the Democrats are. Democrats show up at 10% favorable of Trump, 88% unfavorable. Independents, not being as partisan or stuck in one ideology have a 38% favorable, 48% unfavorable view of Trump. Question 80A.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/57yxejgrmo/econTabReport.pdf

I think most Democrats expect independents to much more ant-Trump than they are or have been. But one should remember Trump won the independent vote 46-42 with 12% voting third party. If the midterms are all about Trump and not local issues which midterms are at times. I would expect around a 55-45 independent split in favor of the Democratic candidates. But keep in mind independents tend to let their pocket book decide whom they will vote for. But a lot of independents who are satisfied with their pocket book might be the ones staying home. for independents, satisfaction tends to work that way especially in the midterms. That is unless they are angry as heck at the party in power. On the economy Independents approve of Trump's handling of it so far 41-38. Question 85D.

Go through the poll, lots of interesting stuff.

Thanks.

The Indie turnout ratio you suggest, is about what I suspect will occur - a 10 pt or so spread. That's about a 14% change from the Presidential election, which is a moderate but substantive difference. That would pretty much follow Trump's long & slow slip in Independants' approval rating, of around 12 pts.

One thing I want to point-out, is that we're seeing a lot of separate 7 - 12 pt shifts in Trump's approval from a seemingly plethora of niche electorate subsets. While we are analyzing the effects of a moderate shift of a specific subset here, we can't forget these many different subsets become an aggregate total that may become substantive.

Piss-off enough African-American women, white suburban women, young people, etc., etc., even if only 8 or 10 pts, and as an aggregate whole they can become a substantial force. Especially in an often nearly evenly divided country, where a 3-5 pt aggregate difference seals an election for that candidate.

Bassman · Feb 22, 2018

NIMBY said:
Just more of what we recently saw with the big flip in Missouri.
With all of the flips in Virginia. With a Democratic Senator in Alabama.

With 26 GOP governors up this year, 13 term-limited.
With well over 30 GOP House members moving on; and to add in the Pennsylvania remap.
With five legitimate opportunities to flip GOP Senate seats.

I could go on endlessly, but you get the idea.
I could talk of the GOP opportunities, but I don't feel like it.

Each new day of this GOP insanity brings us closer to sanity again ...

Translation: 100% Democrat rule, which would be detrimental to the country. Sanity should mean destroying Liberalism.

Vox: Democrats Just Flipped a Kentucky State Legislature Seat in a District Trump Won by 49 Points

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WE'LL DO IT LIVE!

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Next we have #12. The Larch