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Hurricane Jose upgraded to category 4 storm behind Irma

Tim the plumber said:
Do you think that 8mm, that's about a third of an inch, has caused the storm surge of 6m, about 20 feet, to be much different?
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Erm... Global average increase of sea levels for the 20th century is closer to 8 inches. Not 8mm.

Sea levels are rising at approximately 3.4mm per year, mostly due to climate change.

No one says that sea level rise causes all of a storm surge. Rather, it adds to the surge, making the impacts of the storm worse.
 
Threegoofs said:
If God is really trying to deliver a message, Irma will miss Mar-a-Lago only to set it up for Jose to destroy it in delicious irony.
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Or, it gets hit by both Irma and Jose.

However, the forecast has Jose going to sea instead of hitting the u.s.
 
Cigar said:
Hurricane Jose has strengthened into a Category 4 storm, the National Hurricane Center said Friday, warning that the storm could continue to grow.

The hurricane, which is currently tearing through waters in the central Atlantic Ocean, is approaching the northern Leeward Islands, with maximum sustained wind speeds of up to 150 miles per hour.

According to NHC forecast models, Hurricane Jose is soon expected to turn northwest, though it remains unclear how close it will get to the Leeward Islands, which include St. Martin, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Barbuda.

Hurricane watches and warnings are already in effect for St. Martin, Antigua, Anguilla and Barbuda.



Read more: Hurricane Jose upgraded to Category 4 storm | TheHill


Do you think God trying to deliver a message? :2razz:
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If he is, it is only to a lot of fish swimming in the Atlantic. Damn, what does he have against them? And why call it hose A? Don't the people who name these storms like hose B?
 
jmotivator said:
And of course the track of hurricanes is based on prevailing weather patterns in the region, not of the temperature of the upper troposphere globally. People trying to tie this this to more than bad luck just have an agenda.
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There is probably a connection between warmer oceans and temperature differentials. The differential creating the severity of the storm, and the warmer waters creating the severity of the precipitation, but it is still not observationally abnormal through history. For the most part, we have more ways of seeing these, and more people affected than the past. I still maintain it is our land use changes that affect the end result more than warming.
 
Visbek said:
Erm... Global average increase of sea levels for the 20th century is closer to 8 inches. Not 8mm.
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19 cm, which is 7.5"

Visbek;1067613297 Sea levels are rising at approximately 3.4mm per year said:
Current is closer to 3 cm. Consider the Lunar Nodal Cycle?

Visbek;1067613297 No one says that sea level rise causes [I said:
all[/I] of a storm surge. Rather, it adds to the surge, making the impacts of the storm worse.
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Yes, it does. The sea level on average is not notable from the past when you take out the cyclical variations.
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Visbek said:
Erm... Global average increase of sea levels for the 20th century is closer to 8 inches. Not 8mm.

Sea levels are rising at approximately 3.4mm per year, mostly due to climate change.

No one says that sea level rise causes all of a storm surge. Rather, it adds to the surge, making the impacts of the storm worse.
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You do understand that the 8 inches happened without CO2 induced warming?

So the difference between the 180mm/century or 1.8mm/yr figure and the 3.4mm/yr is 1.6mm, although I think you will find a figure of around 2.2mm/yr is better, more generally agreeded since say 2000. So even with your figure the additional sea level is at most 1 1/2 inches. Do you think that will be all that much compared to the 20 foot sea surge?

Would the residents want the world to stop putting out CO2, thus wrecking the whole world economy, and also stopping them using concrete to build better protected buildings to avoid the expected foot of sea level rise due to it or not do that so they could use expensive materials, rent the beach fromnt property to tourists and generally get rich?
 
I've never seen a hurricane track do this before.

115333_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
hank1963 said:
I've never seen a hurricane track do this before.

115333_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
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Most Atlantic hurricanes circle back out into the Atlantic Ocean and die, never making landfall.
 
Visbek said:
Erm... Global average increase of sea levels for the 20th century is closer to 8 inches. Not 8mm.

Sea levels are rising at approximately 3.4mm per year, mostly due to climate change.

No one says that sea level rise causes all of a storm surge. Rather, it adds to the surge, making the impacts of the storm worse.
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Meanwhile the high water mark at my marina hasn't changed one iota since 1986.
 
Visbek said:
Erm... Global average increase of sea levels for the 20th century is closer to 8 inches. Not 8mm.

Sea levels are rising at approximately 3.4mm per year, mostly due to climate change.

No one says that sea level rise causes all of a storm surge. Rather, it adds to the surge, making the impacts of the storm worse.
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At 3.4mm (.134 inches) a year, that would be an increase of 2.68 feet every 20 years. Over the past 100 years, that would be 13.4 feet of rise, which hasn't happened. Care to explain why your numbers are so far off?

Heads up: if no one can explain, or refuses to try, then you know why some of us call bull****.
 
apdst said:
At 3.4mm (.134 inches) a year, that would be an increase of 2.68 feet every 20 years. Over the past 100 years, that would be 13.4 feet of rise, which hasn't happened. Care to explain why your numbers are so far off?

Heads up: if no one can explain, or refuses to try, then you know why some of us call bull****.
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Current rates don't hold because they have a cyclical component. The actual 1900 to 2000 change is very close to 6".
 
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