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US birth rate hits record low.

Higgins86

Higgins86

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https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/07/...ity-rate.html?referer=https://www.google.com/


This follows the trend we are seeing is Asian countries like Japan, South Korea and of course in Southern Europe. With the baby boomers retiring and leaving the work force over the next 20 years it will be interesting to see what happens. Ironically immigration will probably be key in order to fill jobs and the economy will also have to adapt because right now it leans heavily on consumer spending.
Anyone else see potential issues that could arise in the future from this?
 
Well that sure is going to change ... :lamo
 
Higgins86 said:
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/07/...ity-rate.html?referer=https://www.google.com/


This follows the trend we are seeing is Asian countries like Japan, South Korea and of course in Southern Europe. With the baby boomers retiring and leaving the work force over the next 20 years it will be interesting to see what happens. Ironically immigration will probably be key in order to fill jobs and the economy will also have to adapt because right now it leans heavily on consumer spending.
Anyone else see potential issues that could arise in the future from this?
Click to expand...

We calculated this scenario for demographics and the impact on the economy and partially society, when I was in research. That is one reason why I am and always have been a strong supporter of immigration. But illegal immigration is the wrong way in every way but the selection of mobile striving personalities. That is a good trait, but not sufficient.
 
Not just the US: The global fertility rate is in decline.

Trends_in_TFR_1950-2050.jpg
 
Increasing wealth and education means that people no longer have to breed to provide insurance for their old age.
 
Higgins86 said:
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/07/...ity-rate.html?referer=https://www.google.com/


This follows the trend we are seeing is Asian countries like Japan, South Korea and of course in Southern Europe. With the baby boomers retiring and leaving the work force over the next 20 years it will be interesting to see what happens. Ironically immigration will probably be key in order to fill jobs and the economy will also have to adapt because right now it leans heavily on consumer spending.
Anyone else see potential issues that could arise in the future from this?
Click to expand...
I have said, that for the US we should encourage Hispanic immigration.
We do not know entirely what the future will look like, but I feel that the Hispanic,
cultures would be a closer match to what we currently have, than say a middle eastern
or south Asian cultures.
 
Manc Skipper said:
Increasing wealth and education means that people no longer have to breed to provide insurance for their old age.
Click to expand...

Young people being less economically stable is probably another factor. Less likely to have kids with low wages, increased debt and high inflation.
 
Higgins86 said:
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/07/...ity-rate.html?referer=https://www.google.com/


This follows the trend we are seeing is Asian countries like Japan, South Korea and of course in Southern Europe. With the baby boomers retiring and leaving the work force over the next 20 years it will be interesting to see what happens. Ironically immigration will probably be key in order to fill jobs and the economy will also have to adapt because right now it leans heavily on consumer spending.
Anyone else see potential issues that could arise in the future from this?
Click to expand...

Countries will adapt and change. For example, a number of years ago France was under replacement numbers.. they are over it now. Turkey use to be breeding like mad, but now is nearing every year below replacement numbers. Norway and Sweden use to be very low, now they are near replacement. Spain use to be WAY low, but it has been increasing. Is immigrantion a reason for these changes.. yes in part, but not the majority of the changes.

Personally I dont see a problem. We are too many people on this planet in the first place, and there are not enough jobs for everyone. What we have to do, is to stop the poor uneducated masses around the world in breeding too much.. and that is done through education and freeing women from breeding slavery.
 
Higgins86 said:
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/07/...ity-rate.html?referer=https://www.google.com/


This follows the trend we are seeing is Asian countries like Japan, South Korea and of course in Southern Europe. With the baby boomers retiring and leaving the work force over the next 20 years it will be interesting to see what happens. Ironically immigration will probably be key in order to fill jobs and the economy will also have to adapt because right now it leans heavily on consumer spending.
Anyone else see potential issues that could arise in the future from this?
Click to expand...

it isn't just the US birthrates around the world are falling to lower levels.
people are just not having enough babies to offset the dying population.

it is a matter of supply and demand. lower population means higher demand for workers.
that can lead to higher incomes for people.

the bad news is that a lot of our system is dependent on working to pay for non-working.
that is where you will see the bigger impact.
 
Lets not forget that automation is gaining steam. A lot of jobs that require a person to do it, can and will be replace by automation. The need for millions of people to fill jobs will not be there
 
Higgins86 said:
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/07/...ity-rate.html?referer=https://www.google.com/


This follows the trend we are seeing is Asian countries like Japan, South Korea and of course in Southern Europe. With the baby boomers retiring and leaving the work force over the next 20 years it will be interesting to see what happens. Ironically immigration will probably be key in order to fill jobs and the economy will also have to adapt because right now it leans heavily on consumer spending.
Anyone else see potential issues that could arise in the future from this?
Click to expand...

TV addiction leads to impotence? :mrgreen:
 
longview said:
I have said, that for the US we should encourage Hispanic immigration.
We do not know entirely what the future will look like, but I feel that the Hispanic,
cultures would be a closer match to what we currently have, than say a middle eastern
or south Asian cultures.
Click to expand...


We have always been a melting pot, and we will continue to be one. Different cultures throughout the history of America never weakened us, but strengthened us.
 
danarhea said:
We have always been a melting pot, and we will continue to be one. Different cultures throughout the history of America never weakened us, but strengthened us.
Click to expand...
True enough, but many of those cultures weather Italian, or Irish, ect had some cultural similarities.
I think the same is true for the Hispanic cultures.
The US will change, we may have a little control over how it changes!
 
longview said:
True enough, but many of those cultures weather Italian, or Irish, ect had some cultural similarities.
I think the same is true for the Hispanic cultures.
The US will change, we may have a little control over how it changes!
Click to expand...

If Republicans want to stay in control, they need to accept that fact and start doing some outreach. Hispanics will soon be the majority here in Texas. At this time, less than 10% of Hispanics support Republicans, which is a far cry from the Bush years, when he reached out to them, and Republicans had huge Hispanic support as a result. Bush might not have been a great president, but he was a wonderful governor, and I supported him 100% at that time.
 
danarhea said:
If Republicans want to stay in control, they need to accept that fact and start doing some outreach. Hispanics will soon be the majority here in Texas. At this time, less than 10% of Hispanics support Republicans, which is a far cry from the Bush years, when he reached out to them, and Republicans had huge Hispanic support as a result. Bush might not have been a great president, but he was a wonderful governor, and I supported him 100% at that time.
Click to expand...
I agree!
 
PeteEU said:
Countries will adapt and change. For example, a number of years ago France was under replacement numbers.. they are over it now. Turkey use to be breeding like mad, but now is nearing every year below replacement numbers. Norway and Sweden use to be very low, now they are near replacement. Spain use to be WAY low, but it has been increasing. Is immigrantion a reason for these changes.. yes in part, but not the majority of the changes.

Personally I dont see a problem. We are too many people on this planet in the first place, and there are not enough jobs for everyone. What we have to do, is to stop the poor uneducated masses around the world in breeding too much.. and that is done through education and freeing women from breeding slavery.
Click to expand...


World population is around 7.5 billion however nearly 3 billion of that is in China and India alone. The US/Europe combined is only around 1 billion. So it's not just a job issue, it could possibly shake up the world order. If the " West" is having less kids that means less technology innovation, less companies being started, smaller military etc.
 
danarhea said:
We have always been a melting pot, and we will continue to be one. Different cultures throughout the history of America never weakened us, but strengthened us.
Click to expand...

People of all cultures want a job and a home, and a better life for themselves and their kids.
 
Good news, I guess. Maybe this means it will be OK if we continue to ignore our infrastructure and spend on war instead. Those NYC subway cars will be carrying fewer people, so it will be a rational act to let them rot, eh? :doh
 
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