• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

Higgins86 said:
no but being a culture people can relate to certainly helps especially if you were ever in a situation where you needed to gather support from other nations. How many western countries do you think will rally around China?
Click to expand...

Honestly, I don't think Europe would rally around us at all. They are in deep with China financially, they gleefully cheer for the decline of American influence, and they don't have the stomach for military engagement as a matter of general public opinion (with the exception of maybe France and a handful of Eastern European nations whose support wouldn't be anything more than symbolic). Good thing this is all hypothetical round table fun talk. It would be a world tragedy if it ever happened.
 
SBu said:
Honestly, I don't think Europe would rally around us at all. They are in deep with China financially, they gleefully cheer for the decline of American influence, and they don't have the stomach for military engagement as a matter of general public opinion (with the exception of maybe France and a handful of Eastern European nations whose support wouldn't be anything more than symbolic). Good thing this is all hypothetical round table fun talk. It would be a world tragedy if it ever happened.
Click to expand...

It's far from simple hypothetical. The Pentagons annual report to Congress, as well as a few think tanks, the CFR, the Russians and many others are talking about this. We have been told that the Pentagon is to be moving 60% of its assets to WestPac and the former defence secretary has visited the deep water port at Vietnam eying it for potential use. War with China is a given by no means, but the stronger they get, the more they'll have to be respected.
 
Montecresto said:
It's far from simple hypothetical. The Pentagons annual report to Congress, as well as a few think tanks, the CFR, the Russians and many others are talking about this. We have been told that the Pentagon is to be moving 60% of its assets to WestPac and the former defence secretary has visited the deep water port at Vietnam eying it for potential use. War with China is a given by no means, but the stronger they get, the more they'll have to be respected.
Click to expand...

I meant going to war is hypothetical, not that pondering it is hypothetical. I could have made that more clear.
 
SBu said:
I meant going to war is hypothetical, not that pondering it is hypothetical. I could have made that more clear.
Click to expand...

Gotcha!
 
Is there an assumption here that the United States will be stagnant on the development of naval technology for 6 years? Are we forgetting that China has only recently acquired an aircraft carrier that is many years past its prime? And that the United States has things like nuclear submarines that we really know nothing about?

And are we also forgetting that China is an oppressive regime? Facing a rising population? With growing access to technological things like Internet? China is essentially setting themselves for a catastrophe. It may face their government, or their entire population.
 
stonewall50 said:
Is there an assumption here that the United States will be stagnant on the development of naval technology for 6 years? Are we forgetting that China has only recently acquired an aircraft carrier that is many years past its prime? And that the United States has things like nuclear submarines that we really know nothing about?

And are we also forgetting that China is an oppressive regime? Facing a rising population? With growing access to technological things like Internet? China is essentially setting themselves for a catastrophe. It may face their government, or their entire population.
Click to expand...

It depends on who "we" is? Those guys in post 202.
 
joko104 said:
It is foolish to think that armed conflict with China would be measures on planes versus planes and ships versus ships is also extremely foolish.

China has no real external enemies nor terrorism dangers. The USA and West does. China could arm and inflame much of the world. It could turn Iran into a nuclear power overnight. It could pour sophisticated small and medium arms to every militant and terrorist organization in the world, and cause civil wars and revolutions in many areas of interest to us.

It is China, not the USA, that is the manufacturing giant and "war" with China obviously cannot include bombing China, since China is a nuclear power obviously with ballistic missile capacity. Thus, China could be massively producing weapons to give to surrogate allies - who are not allies with China but rather serve as allies for hatred of the USA and the West.

MOST countries would have compelling reasons to side with China to avoid the chaos China could send their way, and our allies would opt out trying to remain neutral. You do not see "our allies" sending their ships to the region, do you?
Click to expand...

Dude, I agree with SOME of what you say, but you need to calm the hell down. Most countries siding with China is total bull****. And arming surrogates, they better be paying surrogates or they get nothing. When it comes to arms, the US is the giant and China is the dwarf. When making wheelbarrows, clothes and Walmart merchandise, China is the giant and the US is the dwarf.
 
And US flags, don't forget them.
 
Montecresto said:
China could soon defeat the United States and its allies in a naval conflict in the East Pacific, says Vassily Kashin, a senior research fellow at the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.

In a commentary published on Dec. 27 on the website of the Voice of Russia, the Russian government's international radio broadcasting service, Kashin says it is "highly probable" that by 2020 China could defeat the US in a local conflict in the east part of the Pacific or slow down the transportation of US forces to the region after it completes its current cycle of reforming and rearming the People's Liberation Army.

"China could be able of reaching its political goals even before the US localizes all the necessary forces for a full-scale counterattack," Kashin said.

China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst


Well, we could only hope that such events need not ever be stress tested.
Click to expand...

Well, if Vassily Kasin says it, who are we to argue?

Ridiculous.
 
The Pentagon IS taking the threat of China seriously, regardless of what the resident armchair generals have to say.

China's growing military might: top 4 concerns for the Pentagon ...
www.csmonitor.com/.../China...concerns...Pentagon/Frequent-cyberwarfare...
May 9, 2013 - The US Department of Defense is carefully monitoring the growth of China's military. These four items are currently at the top of their list.
Pentagon Cites Concerns in China Military Growth - NYTimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2010/08/17/world/asia/17military.html
Aug 16, 2010 - The Pentagon study touches American concerns that China's lack of openness about the growth, capabilities and intentions of its military injects ...
[PDF]Annual Report to Congress - United States Department of Defense
www.defense.gov/pubs/2013_china_report_final.pdf
concerns about China's rise. The People's. Liberation Army's (PLA) engagement activities assist its modernization through the acquisition of advanced weapons ...
 
Last edited:
Everything always has to be extreme. Fools here dismiss China as though a conflict with them would be similar to what the Pentagon has been doing for the last 40 years.
 
SBu said:
Honestly, I don't think Europe would rally around us at all. They are in deep with China financially, they gleefully cheer for the decline of American influence, and they don't have the stomach for military engagement as a matter of general public opinion (with the exception of maybe France and a handful of Eastern European nations whose support wouldn't be anything more than symbolic). Good thing this is all hypothetical round table fun talk. It would be a world tragedy if it ever happened.
Click to expand...

Most European countries followed the US into Afghanistan and still lose people. The US also has bases scattered all over europe and military interests.
 
Sherman123 said:
No they couldn't. The article also hedges enormously:

"Kashin says it is "highly probable" that by 2020 China could defeat the US in a local conflict in the east part of the Pacific or slow down the transportation of US forces to the region..." Not that this is likely either but it is a vast difference.
Click to expand...

A2AD is no joke. I'd wager that, given the U.S. retreat realignment to Guam, our likely reductions as part of the (slowly moving) turn-over to South Korea, the reductions to our Navy, and our general decreased willingness to accept casualties on behalf of our allies, that they would definitely slow down our ability to flow forces into the region.
 
American said:
Dude, I agree with SOME of what you say, but you need to calm the hell down. Most countries siding with China is total bull****. And arming surrogates, they better be paying surrogates or they get nothing. When it comes to arms, the US is the giant and China is the dwarf. When making wheelbarrows, clothes and Walmart merchandise, China is the giant and the US is the dwarf.
Click to expand...

China puts satellites in space and bought our IBM's computer division years ago. Just because they send cheap crap to the USA doesn't mean that is all they can manufacture. It just means they realize that most Americans are stupid consumers.
 
Being concerned about China's military buildup is hardly the same as proclaiming that they can defeat the United States in a few years. Get serious.
They may provide some sort of threat to the Philippines or Taiwan or Vietnam, but the U.S.? Really? Go to the library and get a copy of 'Jane's Fighting Ships' and then reconsider.
 
Montecresto said:
Everything always has to be extreme. Fools here dismiss China as though a conflict with them would be similar to what the Pentagon has been doing for the last 40 years.
Click to expand...

Actually, no. It's fools who think China is a real military threat to the United States. They are a regional power. That's all.
 
Wiggen said:
Actually, no. It's fools who think China is a real military threat to the United States. They are a regional power. That's all.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I know. We really need to inform the White house, the Pentagon, CFR and other analyst and strategist groups that keep coming with reports to the contrary.
 
Apparently, they forgot we have these buggers, and god knows what nightmarish aircraft that we keep tucked away for a rainy day such as these. It's not secret we've been working on some downright terrifying things. This report assumes we will play by the rules, and we won't use our super secret spooky stuff when the shtf against a real enemy.

ohio6.jpg

Ohio class, a little taste of ICBM goodies.
 
Yes of course. That completely escaped the minds of those at the Pentagon.
 
Montecresto said:
Yeah, I know. We really need to inform the White house, the Pentagon, CFR and other analyst and strategist groups that keep coming with reports to the contrary.
Click to expand...

Perhaps you could detail your military and intelligence background so we could more properly evaluate these 'sky is falling' predictions of yours. So far we've seen a lot of articles stating that the Chinese are spending a lot on their military. How does that compare to what we spend? They have an aircraft carrier. How many do we have?

Of course, when you base your opinion on some Russian analyst that nobody has ever heard of, I guess I understand.

I repeat - 'Janes' Fighting Ships'. Read it and learn something.
 
Montecresto said:
Yes of course. That completely escaped the minds of those at the Pentagon.
Click to expand...

Could you link us to an article where somebody in the Pentagon says that in 5 years we'll lose a war to the Chinese? I missed that.
 
Wiggen said:
Could you link us to an article where somebody in the Pentagon says that in 5 years we'll lose a war to the Chinese? I missed that.
Click to expand...

No one said that that was the Pentagons claim. That part is from the Russian study and it was seven years out. But if you want to educate yourself, you'll pick up more than a novel. Start with this years annual Pentagon report to congress on the "serious concerns" (their words not mine) of China's growing military threat. Perhaps the Council on Foreign Relations papers on the subject could teach you something. You probably don't know what the Chinese military budget is do you? Well don't feel bad, neither does the Pentagon, their report says that China is not forthright with their report, but they believe its approaching 200 billion annually, which is a doubling twice in the last two decades.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom