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China could defeat US in East Pacific conflict by 2020: Russian analyst

Hamster Buddha said:
First off, I'm glad that we have this thread... everything else on this forum right now is abortions and duck dynasty... both of which I have no interest in. Back to post, why is it people think their can't be small scale conflicts between large nuclear powers? China's done it with both Russia and India... and Russia definitely had nukes at that time. I'm just saying that when fighting over interests, limited to an area like the East China Sea, you could have a small scale conflict.
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So you imagine the Chinese could sink even one of our warships without starting an all out war? I don't believe they could or would.
 
iguanaman said:
The Vietnamese hate the Chinese and always have. They even fought (and won) a skirmish with them over borders soon after the US left them alone.
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Then again, who haven't the Chinese been at war with in the past half a century. But we're talking about them possibly getting involved in an area that they have no interest in. And I don't see the Vietnamese joining an Alliance with Japan and the US to stop China. We have some common ground in the south, but not in the east.
 
iguanaman said:
So you imagine the Chinese could sink even one of our warships without starting an all out war? I don't believe they could or would.
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Sinking one ship would immediately demand a nuclear strike though? We'd do a measured response... strike back at the areas that launched the attack (or attempt to). I just don't see the US starting Armageddon over a few islands in the East China Sea.
 
MMC said:
Yeah I know its not.....and neither were these guys all standing in line holding arms and making it known to China they will stand together.
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That's not 'exactly' what I said. Nevertheless, besides other considerations, Vietnam knows the US is standing behind them, that's just the truth. You might research Hillary Clinton's meetings in 2010 and Robert Gate's following her with Vietnam.

From The Congressional Research Service:

The Obama Administration also used them (Clinton/Gate's meetings) as occasions to signal its determination to increase its presence in Southeast Asia generally, and upgrade its strategic relationship with Vietnam in particular. Of particular note, during the July ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) meeting, Vietnamese and U.S. officials orchestrated a multilateral diplomatic push-back against perceived Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea.

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R40208.pdf
 
Montecresto said:
That's not 'exactly' what I said. Nevertheless, besides other considerations, Vietnam knows the US is standing behind them, that's just the truth. You might research Hillary Clinton's meetings in 2010 and Robert Gate's following her with Vietnam.

From The Congressional Research Service:

The Obama Administration also used them (Clinton/Gate's meetings) as occasions to signal its determination to increase its presence in Southeast Asia generally, and upgrade its strategic relationship with Vietnam in particular. Of particular note, during the July ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) meeting, Vietnamese and U.S. officials orchestrated a multilateral diplomatic push-back against perceived Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea.

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R40208.pdf
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MMC said:
Don't know if you saw this......On Vietnam and the Phillipines. Plus South Korea has already stated they wont acknowledge China's zone nor report to them.



US boosts maritime security aid to Vietnam.....

61b3491e406d102a460f6a7067004b29.jpg



The United States will boost maritime security assistance to China's smaller neighbors amid rising tensions over disputed territories in the South China Sea, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry announced on Monday during a visit to Vietnam, where he also pressed the communist government on human rights and democratic and economic reforms.

The U.S. will provide an additional $32.5 million to help Southeast Asian nations protect their territorial waters and secure navigational freedom, Kerry said. Vietnam alone will receive up to $18 million, including five fast patrol-boats that will be given to the Vietnamese Coast Guard, he said. With the new contribution, U.S. maritime security assistance to the region will exceed $156 million over the next two years, the State Department said.

At a news conference Monday with Vietnam's Foreign Minister Pham Binh Minh, Kerry said the assistance was not a "quickly conceived reaction to any events in the region" but rather part of a "gradual and deliberate expansion" in such aid. But he made clear that the aid is designed to help nations defend their waters from encroachment.

"Peace and stability in the South China Sea is a top priority for us and for countries in the region," Kerry said. "We are very concerned by and strongly opposed to coercive and aggressive tactics to advance territorial claims."

Kerry's visit to Vietnam, to be followed by a stop in the Philippines on Tuesday, comes as tensions over conflicting claims to territory in the South China Sea have risen dramatically, and many of China's neighbors are seeking assurances from Washington that it will remain a guarantor of maritime security in the Asia-Pacific region.

Both Vietnam and the Philippines are involved in disputes with China. Monday's announcement was likely to rankle Beijing and calm concerns in Vietnam and other countries that the United States might be acquiescing to China's shows of strength.....snip~

US boosts maritime security aid to Vietnam
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Call me when they let us set up a base in Vietnam, or when we begin conducting joint exercises. Until then, it's all talk about "strategic partnerships" is nothing but hot air and bluster.

Also... 5 patrol boats? Really? Like that's gonna help if China comes calling?
 
iguanaman said:
LOL It's like you don't know that we have the nuclear capability to destroy China entirely with the push of a button. Conventional war between major powers is as extinct as the dinosaur. The Chinese are merely responding to our presence. They would never attempt to use ANY of their warships against us or our allies.
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Lol, it's like you think we're going to whip out the nuclear capability!
 
Deuce said:
Yes, really. There's a distinct difference. I can win the lottery, but I can say with a great deal of confidence that I wont.



The resources gained from that rig are overwhelmed by the expense of fighting over it. You've seen the outrageously high cost of our fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. Imagine the cost of actually having naval assets at risk. Modern fighter aircraft are hideously effective at destroying large, slow moving targets. Once an aircraft carrier sinks, it's not going to be a small conflict.
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Well if your not buying tickets, you damn sure won't, lol.
 
iguanaman said:
The Vietnamese hate the Chinese and always have. They even fought (and won) a skirmish with them over borders soon after the US left them alone.
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Have you done a quick check on China's navy then verses now?
 
Hamster Buddha said:
Call me when they let us set up a base in Vietnam, or when we begin conducting joint exercises. Until then, it's all talk about "strategic partnerships" is nothing but hot air and bluster.

Also... 5 patrol boats? Really? Like that's gonna help if China comes calling?
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We're working on that too HB.


As the Obama administration revamps its Asian strategy in response to a rising China, the U.S. military is eyeing a return to some familiar bases from its last conflict in the region — the Vietnam War.


In next-door Vietnam, Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta this month became the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the naval and air base at Cam Ranh Bay since the end of the war. Citing the “tremendous potential here,” Panetta enthused about the prospect of U.S. ships again becoming a common sight at the deep-water port.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...-asian-bases/2012/06/22/gJQAKP83vV_story.html

CAM RANH BAY, Vietnam - On Sunday Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta became the first Pentagon chief to visit Cam Ranh Bay’s deep water port since the end of the Vietnam war - when America used it as a base of operations to wage an illegal war in that country.

The US military is hoping that American atrocities and war crimes will not get in the way of its return to the strategically important base in the South China Sea.

http://www.examiner.com/article/us-seeks-to-establish-a-naval-base-vietnam-to-threaten-china


Note the mention of the "illegal" war there!
 
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Montecresto said:
We're working on that too HB.


As the Obama administration revamps its Asian strategy in response to a rising China, the U.S. military is eyeing a return to some familiar bases from its last conflict in the region — the Vietnam War.


In next-door Vietnam, Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta this month became the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the naval and air base at Cam Ranh Bay since the end of the war. Citing the “tremendous potential here,” Panetta enthused about the prospect of U.S. ships again becoming a common sight at the deep-water port.

U.S. seeks return to SE Asian bases - The Washington Post

CAM RANH BAY, Vietnam - On Sunday Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta became the first Pentagon chief to visit Cam Ranh Bay’s deep water port since the end of the Vietnam war - when America used it as a base of operations to wage an illegal war in that country.

The US military is hoping that American atrocities and war crimes will not get in the way of its return to the strategically important base in the South China Sea.

US seeks to establish a naval base in Vietnam to threaten China - Wichita Military Affairs | Examiner.com

Note the mention of the "illegal" war there!
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Now that's pretty interesting. I see the article is a year old, where are we at now when it comes to a military partnership with Vietnam though?
 
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Hamster Buddha said:
Now that's pretty interesting. I see the article is a year old, where are we at now when it comes to a military partnership with Vietnam though?
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This is a couple weeks old!!

Kerry’s Return to Vietnam Is All About Blocking China
- See more at: Kerry


The US is talking to the Philippine's as well about a port, perhaps in case it doesn't work out in Vietnam, I suppose. Also, I don't know that this is so much of a military partnership that Clinton/Gate's was working on or just a case of Vietnam being concerned enough about China to make the distasteful arrangement.
 
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Hamster Buddha said:
Sinking one ship would immediately demand a nuclear strike though? We'd do a measured response... strike back at the areas that launched the attack (or attempt to). I just don't see the US starting Armageddon over a few islands in the East China Sea.
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So us sinking a few Chinese ships in retaliation wouldn't escalate into full scale war? The Chinese know full well that at the very least they would have to vacate the entire disputed area or be destroyed. That's 1000's of soldiers lives and a one way street to WWIII if they fail to heed.
 
Montecresto said:
Have you done a quick check on China's navy then verses now?
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LOL The mightiest Navy in the World was no good against Vietnam way back when and nothing has changed that. The Vietnamese will do what is in their best interests and if siding with the US is that then China will not scare them out of it.
 
Montecresto said:
This is a couple weeks old!!

Kerry’s Return to Vietnam Is All About Blocking China
- See more at: Kerry
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This is interesting and would like more details:

The United States announced Monday a new maritime partnership with Vietnam that on paper will help Hanoi police its waters. In reality, it's a way to give Vietnam a bit more muscle to defend its territorial interests in the potentially oil- and gas-rich but contested waters of the South China Sea. - See more at: Kerry

Something I read in the article that interested me was that I didn't realize how much the law is currently constraining what we can do with Vietnam, a former enemy:

On the one hand, that's because U.S. military aid to its former enemy is constrained. - See more at: Kerry

I still say the best bet would be to start with exercises though to really show a cooperation that is aimed at China. But I suppose it's all that can be done at this point.
 
iguanaman said:
So us sinking a few Chinese ships in retaliation wouldn't escalate into full scale war? The Chinese know full well that at the very least they would have to vacate the entire disputed area or be destroyed. That's 1000's of soldiers lives and a one way street to WWIII if they fail to heed.
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I doubt we're really going to be facing Chinese ships in this scenario. Best they'd hope to send out is some of diesel subs for some hit and run stuff, but honestly they know that if they tried a fleet on fleet engagement, they'd lose. Instead, they'll lock down the area with Electronic Warfare, Anti-Satelite Weapons, Cruise Missiles, Air Patrols/Strikes. They've been planning for this for a long time, and I think that they are way ahead at this point when it comes to being able lock it down before we can do anything about it. And what's the 1000's soldiers lives about? No one's launching a ground campaign over this. Not unless the Koreas get involved... which in that case things could definitely snowball. But like you said, China wouldn't want it to go that far. If something were to happen, they'd give it their best shot and then move on. Then it be up to the US and the West to see if they want to enact sanctions that were hurt them as much as China (maybe more or less), or just deal with it.
 
iguanaman said:
LOL The mightiest Navy in the World was no good against Vietnam way back when and nothing has changed that. The Vietnamese will do what is in their best interests and if siding with the US is that then China will not scare them out of it.
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Yes, and facing off with China today without the US squarely behind them, wouldn't be in their best interest. Which could explain why they are considering at least, allowing the US Navy use once again of its deep water port, dispite the history of US war crimes there!
 
Montecresto said:
This is a couple weeks old!!

Kerry’s Return to Vietnam Is All About Blocking China
- See more at: Kerry


The US is talking to the Philippine's as well about a port, perhaps in case it doesn't work out in Vietnam, I suppose. Also, I don't know that this is so much of a military partnership that Clinton/Gate's was working on or just a case of Vietnam being concerned enough about China to make the distasteful arrangement.
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Next time China pulls some stupid ****, I'd give Vietnam a few new boats. That'll peeve them off to be sure.

That's actually my philosophy with a lot of places. Pakistan ticks me off, I'm giving away new toys to India. Russia ticks me off, well Germany's getting a new defense system for xmas.
 
iguanaman said:
LOL The mightiest Navy in the World was no good against Vietnam way back when and nothing has changed that. The Vietnamese will do what is in their best interests and if siding with the US is that then China will not scare them out of it.
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I don't remember that many great naval battles during the Vietnam War...
 
Hamster Buddha said:
I don't remember that many great naval battles during the Vietnam War...
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A deliberately falsified report of a naval attack on a US ship is what justified the beginning of the Vietnam war. But many wars have been started or pursued by the USA upon outright lies and false claims to the American public.
 
Montecresto said:
Yes, and facing off with China today without the US squarely behind them, wouldn't be in their best interest. Which could explain why they are considering at least, allowing the US Navy use once again of its deep water port, dispite the history of US war crimes there!
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There are 2 direct flights a day from LAX to Ho Chi Minh city....Ironic isn't it?
 
Hamster Buddha said:
I doubt we're really going to be facing Chinese ships in this scenario. Best they'd hope to send out is some of diesel subs for some hit and run stuff, but honestly they know that if they tried a fleet on fleet engagement, they'd lose. Instead, they'll lock down the area with Electronic Warfare, Anti-Satelite Weapons, Cruise Missiles, Air Patrols/Strikes. They've been planning for this for a long time, and I think that they are way ahead at this point when it comes to being able lock it down before we can do anything about it. And what's the 1000's soldiers lives about? No one's launching a ground campaign over this. Not unless the Koreas get involved... which in that case things could definitely snowball. But like you said, China wouldn't want it to go that far. If something were to happen, they'd give it their best shot and then move on. Then it be up to the US and the West to see if they want to enact sanctions that were hurt them as much as China (maybe more or less), or just deal with it.
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What you're saying here is really quite sound, but as you also pointed out earlier, **** happens, and somebody makes a bad move and its on. Often what may seem sound analysis today looks very different tomorrow. In 1936, Hitler made TIME Magazines Man of the Year!
 
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