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RIP: Peak Oil - we won't be running out any time soon

Grendel

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[h=2]RIP: Peak Oil - we won't be running out any time soon[/h]http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/02/23/peak_oil_is_dead_citigroup/

Human ingenuity wins the day

By Andrew OrlowskiGet more from this author
Posted in Environment, 23rd February 2012 12:29 GMT




The idea that seized the imaginations of the bien pensant chattering classes in the Noughties – "Peak Oil" – is no longer relevant. So says the commodities team at Citigroup, and policy-makers would be wise to examine the trends they've identified.
"Peak Oil" is the point at which the production of conventional crude oil begins an irreversible decline.

[ . . . ]

The resurgence of US gas production to well over its 1970s peak and into the number one slot globally over the last seven years is a result of hydraulic fracturing – fracking – techniques being applied to shale gas reserves across the US. The same companies are now using the same techniques on shale oil reserves, with results that in many cases look as promising as the early stages of the shale gas revolution. US oil production is now on the rise, entirely because of shale oil production, as conventional sources such as Alaska or California are structurally declining, and as Gulf of Mexico production is poised for a post-Macondo recovery.


[RIP is in the title of the article. One rule says use the title, one says RIP is reserved for dead people. Went with rule 1, hope that's right].

Anyway, I wouldn't say it's time to drop all sustainability planning just yet, but it is good to hear that we're not on the verge of collapse. Until synthetic hydrocarbons or some other form of safe, renewable energy is developed, this is a nice buffer on available oil supplies. Plus, it takes the heat off of drilling in places like ANWAR, where the value of maintaining some of the last few pristine pieces of land is a high price to pay to get another few years of leaving the lights on without caring about it.

Not that I don't like the idea of energy efficient hybrids, efficiently designed buildings, and well planned public transport -- all great ideas -- just that I like my fast v8 and I'm not ready to give it up to live in a tree just yet.
 
Peak oil was a political explanation in the mid to late 1950s..

The US mom and pop domestic operations simply couldn't compete with ME oil.. so Americans were told Texas and Oklahoma crude were "exhausted"..

It was revived right before we attacked Iraq by Matthew Simmons .. an Energy broker.. to line his own pockets.
 
it's a finite resource, and as the third world modernizes, demand is only going in one direction.

peak oil is only a matter of time. we would do well to start seriously planning for what comes next as soon as possible. our chance to avoid global crisis and conflict over diminishing energy resources is now.
 
it's a finite resource, and as the third world modernizes, demand is only going in one direction.

peak oil is only a matter of time. we would do well to start seriously planning for what comes next as soon as possible. our chance to avoid global crisis and conflict over diminishing energy resources is now.

The planet is producing new oil everyday. I disagree that it's a finite resource.
 
[h=2]RIP: Peak Oil - we won't be running out any time soon[/h]http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/02/23/peak_oil_is_dead_citigroup/




[RIP is in the title of the article. One rule says use the title, one says RIP is reserved for dead people. Went with rule 1, hope that's right].

Anyway, I wouldn't say it's time to drop all sustainability planning just yet, but it is good to hear that we're not on the verge of collapse. Until synthetic hydrocarbons or some other form of safe, renewable energy is developed, this is a nice buffer on available oil supplies. Plus, it takes the heat off of drilling in places like ANWAR, where the value of maintaining some of the last few pristine pieces of land is a high price to pay to get another few years of leaving the lights on without caring about it.

Not that I don't like the idea of energy efficient hybrids, efficiently designed buildings, and well planned public transport -- all great ideas -- just that I like my fast v8 and I'm not ready to give it up to live in a tree just yet.

Damn! You're just now catching on? You had to wait until some tree-hugger rag sheet told you? :rofl
 
The planet is producing new oil everyday.

Not at the rate we use it. The planet produced the entirety of what's been available to us over the course of about 150 million years.

I disagree that it's a finite resource.

Then you're being silly.
 
Not at the rate we use it. The planet produced the entirety of what's been available to us over the course of about 150 million years.


Then you're being silly.

Oil exploration is still in its infancy.. Look at off shore Algeria, Shaybah, Sudan, Darfur, Yemen, Brazil, Cuba.........
 
Oil exploration is still in its infancy.. Look at off shore Algeria, Shaybah, Sudan, Darfur, Yemen, Brazil, Cuba.........

I'd be happy to be wrong about oil. But I think a lot of people will believe and insist that supply will virtually always meet our needs, and when it doesn't we'll invent a magical replacement.

I expect the EROEI to drop to 1 within my lifetime.
 
I'd be happy to be wrong about oil. But I think a lot of people will believe and insist that supply will virtually always meet our needs, and when it doesn't we'll invent a magical replacement.

I expect the EROEI to drop to 1 within my lifetime.

You may be right, but we are becoming more efficient..

Consider that 90% of Israeli homes have passive solar hot water..

Its not all or nothing..
 
I'd be happy to be wrong about oil. But I think a lot of people will believe and insist that supply will virtually always meet our needs, and when it doesn't we'll invent a magical replacement.

I expect the EROEI to drop to 1 within my lifetime.

33 billion barrels were just discovered off the coast of Brazil a few years ago. Did you hear about that?
 
There will always be certain quantities of oil to be found, but world demand increases by some millions of barrels per day in addition to the pre-existing demand. At some point we will have to decide just how much we want to carve up the earth to look for diminishing supplies. Eventually we will return to a state where there won't be enough oil to service the entire infrastructure, and only privileged areas will receive it.

Oil should have already been reserved for special uses in the first place, and if we're smart we will have more nuclear energy by the time that becomes a reality.
 
33 billion barrels were just discovered off the coast of Brazil a few years ago. Did you hear about that?

LOLOL..

I don't have a problem with the US being concerned.. and working to reduce usage or being more efficient.. I have a problem with stupid hysteria.

I just this week replaced my 18 year old heating system.. and wow.. is it more efficient.
 
Damn! You're just now catching on? You had to wait until some tree-hugger rag sheet told you? :rofl

El Reg is a tree hugger rag sheet? When did that happen?

I'd be happy to be wrong about oil. But I think a lot of people will believe and insist that supply will virtually always meet our needs, and when it doesn't we'll invent a magical replacement.

We need to invent the magical replacement before we start running out, of course. We will find some other form of power, we have to, and I'm glad there are a lot of governments and smart companies investing in the research for it. We just need to find it sooner rather than later.

It's good to know that supply got a boost, though.

And I never understood people who doubt the concept that, sooner or later, we'll run out. The Earth doesn't produce it as fast as we use it. Seems like pretty simple math, to me.
 
33 billion barrels were just discovered off the coast of Brazil a few years ago. Did you hear about that?

Maybe. The Tupi? Or something else?

If it's Tupi, I've read that the upper estimates are closer to 8 billion barrels of recoverable oil. Enough to meet global demand for about three months.
 
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We need to invent the magical replacement before we start running out, of course.

What we really need to do is learn how to fly by flapping our arms really fast.

In other words, what convinces you this is even possible in the first place? Energy is not created out of nothing. Even if we can derive electrical currents, storage is a huge problem.

We will find some other form of power, we have to, and I'm glad there are a lot of governments and smart companies investing in the research for it.

I hear God is also devoting some time to this predicament. Thank goodness for God. God is great!

In other words, you are basing your attitude on this topic in faith, and nothing more. Consider that you could be wrong and that there may be no solution whatsoever. Then what?

It's good to know that supply got a boost, though.

Agreed. The more time I have, the better.

And I never understood people who doubt the concept that, sooner or later, we'll run out. The Earth doesn't produce it as fast as we use it. Seems like pretty simple math, to me.

Consider that all alternative energies accumulate very slowly, and we're using 150 MILLION years worth of accumulation (solar) in a few hundred years. Then we run out and say "welp, better INVENT a new source of energy." That is delusional. It is not going to happen.
 
Then we run out and say "welp, better INVENT a new source of energy." That is delusional. It is not going to happen.

Invent or discover a new process for something? That's never happened before? Seriously? There's 6,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 kilograms of material on/in the Earth, and you don't think we can find a way to use any of it to produce energy, except fossil fuels? And I'm delusional?
 
[
Anyway, I wouldn't say it's time to drop all sustainability planning just yet, but it is good to hear that we're not on the verge of collapse. Until synthetic hydrocarbons or some other form of safe, renewable energy is developed, this is a nice buffer on available oil supplies. Plus, it takes the heat off of drilling in places like ANWAR, where the value of maintaining some of the last few pristine pieces of land is a high price to pay to get another few years of leaving the lights on without caring about it.

Not that I don't like the idea of energy efficient hybrids, efficiently designed buildings, and well planned public transport -- all great ideas -- just that I like my fast v8 and I'm not ready to give it up to live in a tree just yet.

I love the idea of hybrids and efficiency, it's just that most people who can barely afford gasoline, sure as hell can't afford to buy a hybrid. This is where the good idea splits with the reality of the situation for alot of everyday working people.

Thanks for posting- first I've seen of this. :)
 
I love the idea of hybrids and efficiency, it's just that most people who can barely afford gasoline, sure as hell can't afford to buy a hybrid. This is where the good idea splits with the reality of the situation for alot of everyday working people.

Thanks for posting- first I've seen of this. :)
Hybrids are turning out to be a bigger enviro-fail than fossil fuel engines. There was a study done in a more heavy alternative drive country, China I believe and they showed that carbon output was indeed down but particulate matter pollution was up such as lithium particulates and other heavy pollutants. I think hydrogen is a way to go and I've also heard that there is a push for magnetic motors and think that shows much more promise than situational vehicles like electrics and solar.

The hardest sell is price, availability, and functionality. Solar cars are not viable in bad weather situations, electrics have insufficient range for most areas, hybrids are a real bitch to maintain due to battery costs, the dual drive function, and the sensors required to resupply the battery(it's fine when the car is new, but after ten years..............).
 
Hybrids are turning out to be a bigger enviro-fail than fossil fuel engines. There was a study done in a more heavy alternative drive country, China I believe and they showed that carbon output was indeed down but particulate matter pollution was up such as lithium particulates and other heavy pollutants. I think hydrogen is a way to go and I've also heard that there is a push for magnetic motors and think that shows much more promise than situational vehicles like electrics and solar.

The hardest sell is price, availability, and functionality. Solar cars are not viable in bad weather situations, electrics have insufficient range for most areas, hybrids are a real bitch to maintain due to battery costs, the dual drive function, and the sensors required to resupply the battery(it's fine when the car is new, but after ten years..............).

Yeah, that's why I like the idea, and not the reality of the situation. Besides the cost up front, the maintenance is prohibitive, and they aren't what they were initially touted to be.
 
Yeah, that's why I like the idea, and not the reality of the situation. Besides the cost up front, the maintenance is prohibitive, and they aren't what they were initially touted to be.
Gotcha. The biggest two issues I've seen about the most promising tech(hydro) is the idea that if there is a disruption during the conversion process there could be a really bad explosion, I think that's an easy enough fix for our best and brightest. The other issues were inefficiencies due to the law of thermodynamics but I say that's also easy enough, up the displacement and take the loss, gas engines started out slow and inefficient as well. I've been thinking long and hard about how a magnetic motor could mimic the performance of fossil and I think that is another option. I think the hybrid idea is fine on it's own but it's built in impracticalities are just not a good tradeoff.
 
A little off-topic, but we have a chain of gas station/ truck stops in this area, and I noticed a couple of weeks ago that our local one is putting in a fill station for propane. Took me by surprise. I guess propane is getting a little more common for vehicles these days.
 
A little off-topic, but we have a chain of gas station/ truck stops in this area, and I noticed a couple of weeks ago that our local one is putting in a fill station for propane. Took me by surprise. I guess propane is getting a little more common for vehicles these days.
I haven't seen them in La. yet but there is a big public push for it. There is a sizeable minority of people who "kit" their old ff engines to accept propane and claim better mileage.
 
Invent or discover a new process for something? That's never happened before? Seriously? There's 6,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 kilograms of material on/in the Earth, and you don't think we can find a way to use any of it to produce energy, except fossil fuels? And I'm delusional?

That's not what I'm saying. I'm not speaking in absolutes. We can derive energy from all sorts of things, and that's fantastic. But alternatives to oil produce electricity, not hydrocarbons. We need hydrocarbons for all sorts of things, and the most critical of which are industrial food production and global freight. Neither of these can be powered by electricity. We can't use electricity for fertilizer, pesticides, herbicides and fungicides and then use more electricity to ship trillions of pounds of food all over the world to feed 7, 8, 9 billion people. It's not possible to store enough electrical energy for global freight, and to replace oil's role in our food production process is a fundamental impossibility. Petrochemical fertilizers literally lend carbon energy to foods that otherwise wouldn't grow where we grow them. Not in the yields we currently enjoy, anyway.

I love alternative energies and green designs. They will help us light and heat our homes, and will even help us transport ourselves around. But the collapse of the industrial food production process and the inability to ship things all across the world means a global economic meltdown and the death of billions of people. At some point in the next century or so this simply has to happen.

The article on which this thread is premised MAY call into question WHEN this will all go down, and might suggest that earlier predictions were alarmist in that they were inaccurately EARLY. But Peak Oil is an inevitability, and the theory that alternative energies will adequately replace oil are mythical.
 
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A while back I learned of a petition in the U.S. to demand that the government release Nicholas Tesla's papers. After he died, the CIA confiscated all of this documents and to this day they have not been released. Tesla had a solution for humanity's energy problem, but we are not being allowed to see it.

He had already accomplished wireless energy transfer, with a model for application on a global scale. His first tower was built in the UK, but his funding was cut before he could establish a second in a neighboring township. I don't have my links anymore that talk about this, but if you watch any objective documentary on him it will tell you this info.

My point is, the idea that we absolutely need oil is likely false. We only need oil if we continue with the growth model of economy. Otherwise, we could begin gradually supplementing what we already have with other sources. I find it hard to believe that we can send a man to the moon and have plans for a space elevator, yet we can't solve our energy problem.

Our priorities are just messed up, that's all.
 
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"We" don't need oil. "We" survived and evolved for millions of years without having harnessed it.

But not 8 billion of us.
 
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