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Poll: Hiring will pick up, growth slow in 2nd half

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Poll: Hiring will pick up, growth slow in 2nd half - Forbes.com

NEW YORK -- Economists increasingly expect hiring to pick up in the second half of the year, even as overall growth is likely to slow.

In a quarterly survey by the National Association for Business Economists released Monday, 43 percent of respondents said their firms are likely to increase employment in the next six months, up 3 percentage points from a similar survey done in April and the highest number in a year.

What's more, none of the 73 survey participants said their firms planned significant layoffs, although 8 percent said they expected staff reductions through attrition, an uptick from 4 percent in the April survey. The manufacturing sector had the strongest outlook for more hiring, with transportation, utilities, information and communications next.
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Not too shabby.
 
fredgraph.png


Yeah, cause...well, can it get any dang lower?
 
We can certainly hope, but the article title doesn't seem to gel with the text:

43 percent of respondents said their firms are likely to increase employment in the next six months, up 3 percentage points from a similar survey done in April and the highest number in a year.
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Is 3 percent even significant? About the same number said things would pick up last April and jobs actually fell last month.

What's more, none of the 73 survey participants said their firms planned significant layoffs, although 8 percent said they expected staff reductions through attrition, an uptick from 4 percent in the April survey.
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So more predict job losses through attrition than in April. No significant layoffs sounds like good news, though.

Still, a larger portion of survey participants, 49 percent, said they didn't expect any change in their company's hiring, a factor that may have played in to their view that economic growth will slow through the end of the year.
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So despite the uptick from 40 to 43% in optimists, most of those surveyed remain pessimistic, predicting stagnant employment.

With high levels of unemployment among the biggest concerns in the economy, any forecast for increased hiring can be seen as a positive.
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Any actual increased hiring can be seen as a positive, predictions aren't worth much at all, given how poor they've been the past few years.
 
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OpportunityCost said:
fredgraph.png


Yeah, cause...well, can it get any dang lower?
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Huh, I could have sworn manufacturing jobs declined in the 90's.
...but now that I think about it, I believe the story was that they fell in the recession and never recovered, as output increased with fewer workers.

This graph suggests a pattern there... recessions kill manufacturing jobs, and they never come back.
 
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OpportunityCost said:
fredgraph.png


Yeah, cause...well, can it get any dang lower?
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What has happened to the manufacturing base in this country during the last dozen years or so? Do you have anything in your home that's made in.. um lets see.. China?
 
pbrauer said:
What has happened to the manufacturing base in this country during the last dozen years or so? Do you have anything in your home that's made in.. um lets see.. China?
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Annex china. Manufacturing job problem solved :mrgreen:
 
"Economists" What is that supposed to mean? Most times an "economist" is nothing more than a spokesperson for a certain industry.

Squat is going to happen until housing bottoms and turns around.
 
Jetboogieman said:
Annex china. Manufacturing job problem solved :mrgreen:
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Then, employees will start having to pay those new Chinese workers Social Security, Medicair, unemployment, workman's comp and Obamacare. It would cost them to much and the manufacturing jobs would be outsourced somewhere else.
 
1Perry said:
"Economists" What is that supposed to mean? Most times an "economist" is nothing more than a spokesperson for a certain industry.

Squat is going to happen until housing bottoms and turns around.
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Not just that, when you listen to them discussion a certain issue, 5 economist will have 5 different opinions. Very reliable? Only with a grain of salt.
 
pbrauer said:
What has happened to the manufacturing base in this country during the last dozen years or so? Do you have anything in your home that's made in.. um lets see.. China?
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Not just the last dozen years. Manufacturing jobs, as a percentage of the US workforce, have been in steady decline since WWII, whereas output has remained constant (~14% of GDP). We've learned to do the same work with fewer people, or have just become more efficient overall.

You see that going on right now. Many of the low skilled jobs lost in the last recession aren't coming back.
 
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1Perry said:
"Economists" What is that supposed to mean? Most times an "economist" is nothing more than a spokesperson for a certain industry.

Squat is going to happen until housing bottoms and turns around.
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I wonder if these are the same "economists" who are always surprised at the "surprisingly bad jobs report", or if they are the "economists" who predicted 3.5% growth in GDP this year.
 
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