Syria unrest: Thousands march in Deraa

Thousands of demonstrators have marched through the southern Syrian city of Deraa calling for greater freedoms.

The march follows the funeral of a man killed on Sunday, when security forces opened fire on protesters.

The demonstrators had set fire to buildings including the offices of the country's ruling Baath Party.

BBC News - Syria unrest: Thousands march in Deraa

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Looks like Bashir Assad may be the next autocrat on the chopping block. Yes, he's brutal, and yes, he'll try to crush the protests just like every other Arab leader. But I don't think he's a Gaddafi. He doesn't have it in him to kill thousands upon thousands of people, and doesn't enjoy nearly as much popular support as his father did.

Kandahar said:

Looks like Bashir Assad may be the next autocrat on the chopping block. Yes, he's brutal, and yes, he'll try to crush the protests just like every other Arab leader. But I don't think he's a Gaddafi. He doesn't have it in him to kill thousands upon thousands of people...

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I don't agree at all. Bashar is a ruthless tyrant even as his rhetoric sometimes masks that reality. One should not be fooled by his Western post-graduate studies, any more than one should have been persuaded by Saif Gadhafi's Western graduate studies, that these individuals are moderate leaders. They are not. Assadi's idea of moderation is to offer moderate rhetoric, even as the underlying substance of his policies remains largely unchanged.

When he first took power in Syria, the media was seduced by his seemingly moderate rhetoric. Some pundits actually believed he would be a reformer, perhaps because they transposed their own hopes of a younger popular leader on him.

The reality has been starkly different. Syria continues to arm Hezbollah. Syria pursued an illicit nuclear program. The Syria-Iran axis has grown tighter. Syria's human rights record is horrendous.

Neither he nor his Alawite minority government will yield control. They will use such force as is necessary to retain power and, if necessary, invite Iran to help out. Bottom line: Mr. Assad is going nowhere anytime soon.

donsutherland1 said:

I don't agree at all. Bashar is a ruthless tyrant even as his rhetoric sometimes masks that reality. One should not be fooled by his Western post-graduate studies, any more than one should have been persuaded by Saif Gadhafi's Western graduate studies, that these individuals are moderate leaders. They are not. Assadi's idea of moderation is to offer moderate rhetoric, even as the underlying substance of his policies remains largely unchanged.

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Well, all Arab leaders including Assad are dictators. But Gaddafi was a special breed of tyrant, more akin to Saddam Hussein. I don't think there's anyone else in the Arab world who fits that description, except Omar Bashir in the Sudan. I don't think anyone else in the Middle East has the capability of murdering thousands of their own citizens.

donsutherland1 said:

When he first took power in Syria, the media was seduced by his seemingly moderate rhetoric. Some pundits actually believed he would be a reformer, perhaps because they transposed their own hopes of a younger popular leader on him.

The reality has been starkly different. Syria continues to arm Hezbollah. Syria pursued an illicit nuclear program. The Syria-Iran axis has grown tighter. Syria's human rights record is horrendous.

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I'm not arguing that he's a saint. But I do not think one can assume that just because he's anti-American that he's considerably worse than most of the other Arab leaders in terms of human rights. Look at the response in countries like Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen. They've beat up protesters, killed a few, and ultimately lost their nerve and flaked out. Syria's human rights record is bad, but is it so much worse than any of those places? In Libya, I think the answer is definitely yes, Gaddafi's human rights record truly WAS worse than those others. I don't think it's so clear-cut in Syria.

In terms of personality and temperament, Assad has a lot more in common with Ben Ali and Mubarak than he does with Gaddafi. He's a standard-issue bumbling strongman, not an insane megalomaniac.

donsutherland1 said:

Neither he nor his Alawite minority government will yield control. They will use such force as is necessary to retain power and, if necessary, invite Iran to help out. Bottom line: Mr. Assad is going nowhere anytime soon.

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Iran has problems of its own that it needs to worry about. I doubt they're going to be too keen to get involved in a Syrian misadventure right now.

The real question is exactly how much is Bashir like his father. The last revolt in Syria was put down by obliterating an entire rebel city in under a month. Bashir isn't a nice guy, but it takes a special kind of bastard to commit slaughter en-mass. I'd bet more on low-level violence combined with power brokering than massacres. Iranian intervention is unlikely as they have little to gain and risk opening the doors to other nations getting involved.

Lets face reality. It is kind of silly in my book to rate the Tyrants do we use a bell curve or just assign the a letter from A to F?

Any tyrannical leader of any degree needs to go, even if it's a so-called King or Prince. This day and age we are past that era.

Even England gave up the Royalty except for show and a bit of Pomp and Circumstance now and then.

I would be happy to see the Palestinians rise up and end the violence because they could do better if they stopped poking at Israel as a child does with a bear of caged big cat.

Kandahar said:

I don't think anyone else in the Middle East has the capability of murdering thousands of their own citizens.

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The ruling Bashar family killed between 15,000-20,000 in the city of Hama to suppress a challenge by the Muslim Brotherhood.

Kandahar said:

Well, all Arab leaders including Assad are dictators. But Gaddafi was a special breed of tyrant, more akin to Saddam Hussein. I don't think there's anyone else in the Arab world who fits that description, except Omar Bashir in the Sudan. I don't think anyone else in the Middle East has the capability of murdering thousands of their own citizens.

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Bashar's not so different from his father, and his father is responsible for "the single deadliest act by any Arab government against its own people in the modern Middle East".

I don't know what makes you say that he's any better than Gaddafi. I would argue that he's far worse.

Tashah said:

The ruling Bashar family killed between 15,000-20,000 in the city of Hama to suppress a challenge by the Muslim Brotherhood.

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The actual estimation is between 17,000 and 40,000.

Kandahar said:

But I do not think one can assume that just because he's anti-American that he's considerably worse than most of the other Arab leaders in terms of human rights.

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Tyrants can be pro-American or anti-American. Their position vis-a-vis the U.S. has no bearing on their nature.

Iran has problems of its own that it needs to worry about. I doubt they're going to be too keen to get involved in a Syrian misadventure right now.

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Of course, Iran would very likely wish to avoid any intervention in Syria. But I suspect that if Iran faced a choice of seeing the Assad dictatorship driven from power without its intervention or remaining on the sidelines, it would intervene to the extent necessary to sustain its allied government. Iran is a skillful practioner of realpolitik. One can be certain that Iran would act in what it perceives to be its interests. It would be very unlikely to write off a dependable ally, especially at a time when it has few allies who are as dependable or useful as Syria.

As perhaps a small foretaste of what would await if a serious challenge to the Assad dictatorship were mounted, Syrian authorities opened fire on protesters in Deraa. Although the government made an attempt at plausible denial by blaming an "armed gang," the fact that the power and telephone service was cut to the area ahead of the violence (something only possible by the authorities) makes clear who was responsible.

From the BBC:

At least five people have died after security forces fired on protesters outside a mosque in the Syrian city of Deraa, human rights activists say...

I wondering if all this protesting popping up all over the ME is a cascade or organized.

American said:

I wondering if all this protesting popping up all over the ME is a cascade or organized.

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What do you mean?

An update that further illustrates the brutality of the Assad regime. From Reuters:

Security forces opened fire on hundreds of youths at the northern entrance to Deraa Wednesday afternoon, according to witnesses, in a dramatic escalation of nearly a week of protests in which at least 44 civilians have been killed since Friday...

Assad, a close ally of Iran, key player in neighboring Lebanon and supporter of militant groups opposed to Israel, has dismissed rising demands for reform in Syria, a country of 20 million people run by the Baath Party since a 1963 coup.

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At least 37 Syrian protesters killed, hospital says | Reuters

Finally, taking a leaf from the Gadhafi playbook, the Assad dictatorship asserted that the protests are the result of "outside parties" and violence is due to "armed gangs." Putting aside the regime's disinformation, its actions illustrate its brutal nature. In the end, I do not believe Assad is going anywhere. He will, if necessary, use such force as is required to crush those who offer dissent.

donsutherland1 said:

An update that further illustrates the brutality of the Assad regime. From Reuters:



At least 37 Syrian protesters killed, hospital says | Reuters

Finally, taking a leaf from the Gadhafi playbook, the Assad dictatorship asserted that the protests are the result of "outside parties" and violence is due to "armed gangs." Putting aside the regime's disinformation, its actions illustrate its brutal nature. In the end, I do not believe Assad is going anywhere. He will, if necessary, use such force as is required to crush those who offer dissent.

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So far his actions don't exceed those of any other Arab leader: Beat up some protesters, kill a few, and eventually ***** out. He may be brutal (as is just about every other leader in the Middle East) but I've seen no indication that he's a Gaddafi. His brutality is often exaggerated due to his anti-US foreign policy, just as the brutality of people like Mubarak was often downplayed due to their pro-US policies.

Kandahar said:

So far his actions don't exceed those of any other Arab leader...

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I strongly suspect that is the case only because the dictatorship has not had to resort to greater violence. I very much hope that things won't evolve so as to put my concerns about the regime to the "test."

BBC News - Syria unrest: Government pledges political reforms

This script looks familiar. Half-hearted attempts at repression, followed by half-hearted attempts at appeasement, and then repeat the cycle. This is the formula that brought down the governments of Tunisia and Egypt, and (in the near future) Yemen as well.

Update on Syria.

From NPR:

Anti-government protests in Syria continue to spread and the death toll continues to rise. Human rights groups estimate that at least 200 people have been killed since protests began last month. Among them, four protesters killed yesterday in the Mediterranean port City of Banias and 37 killed in protests after last Friday's prayers.

Separately, Bloomberg.com reported:

Syrian authorities vowed to crush what they called a conspiracy against the regime as Human Rights Watch said at least 130 people have been killed in a crackdown against protests, and urged authorities to stop using force.

This latest information highlights the brutal nature of the Assad regime. It also provides additional examples that Bashar Assad and his regime will use such force as is necessary to retain power.

Kandahar said:

Looks like Bashir Assad may be the next autocrat on the chopping block. Yes, he's brutal, and yes, he'll try to crush the protests just like every other Arab leader. But I don't think he's a Gaddafi. He doesn't have it in him to kill thousands upon thousands of people, and doesn't enjoy nearly as much popular support as his father did.

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Oh crap, does this mean we have to bomb this country too now? Can we afford to keep doing this? At some point we may have to start charging people.

Another update on Syria.

Today, according to Amnesty International, the Assad dictatorship has killed at least 75 protesters. Amnesty International noted on its website:

At least 75 people have been killed today in Syria during mass protests, local human rights activists told Amnesty International, as the government launched its deadliest crackdown yet on demonstrators calling for political reform.

Security forces fired live ammunition at demonstrators who had gathered across the country following Friday prayers.

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Scores killed in Syria as 'Great Friday' protests are attacked | Amnesty International

As previously noted, the Assad dictatorship is a brutal one. Such ruthless acts are par for the course given its nature.

saturday:

Twelve killed in pro-democracy protests in Syria | Reuters

Using our Lybian logic we should go into Syria too.

(rolling eyes)

When Syrian protests were first reported, very mild demonstrations followed by the massive pro-Govt rallies in Damascus, I thought that would be the end of it. Any further demonstrations would be pit down violently, quickly, and efficiently, like what happened to the Kurds when they challenged the Baathists in 2004. It was rumored Assad said he was going to make some major concessions in a speech, the first he gave in response to the crisis, and he had fired a couple of officials in Deraa.

That's where Assad slipped up, perhaps not even able to comprehend the popular movement he was dealing with. Assad failed to make any concessions whatsoever, instead going on about stability and outside forces. And that's when it changed, Assad lost the chance to be ahead of the wave and, despite being far younger, you could see deep similarities between his speech and several that Mubarak gave. The feeling that despite being in power for years (in the case of the Baath party, decades) they were totally out of sync with the situation on the ground.

That being said, I don't expect the downfall of the regime. I hope for it, like I hope for a democratic secular state to exist anywhere. But the regime has a history that rivals any other in modern history regarding bloodthirstiness.

Using our Lybian logic we should go into Syria too.

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Wait--a transitional national council has been set up among Syrians and they're asking us to intervene to save several cities from aerial and artillery bombardment?

I would have no objections to a similar strategy if it was appropriate for the situation, which is not the case right now.

Anyways, back to the situation today on Saturday:

Two Syrian legislators have resigned their posts in parliament as outrage grows over the security force's ongoing crackdown on anti-government protests.

Nasser al-Hariri and Khalil al-Rifaei, independent MPs who represent the city of Daraa, where scores of protesters have been killed, both separately told Al Jazeera on Saturday that they were resigning over the killings of demonstrators.

"I feel sorry for those who were killed in Houran today and yesterday by the bullets of security forces, despite the fact that the president has promised no live ammunition by security forces at all," al-Hariri said.

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Syrian legislators quit over crackdown - Middle East - Al Jazeera English

I've been very wrong before, and I hope I am for the sake of the very brave people on the street in Syria.

today:

BBC News - Syrian army attacks protest city of Deraa

the use of tanks is new, a severe escalation

5000 troops and 7 tanks advance into deraa on syria's southern border with jordan

electricity in deraa cut, phone service, border closed

25 killed, according to whatever sources bbc has to rely on, admittedly questionable

95 dead on friday, 12 on saturday, nation wide, most in jabla on the mediterranean

jabla is majority alawite, assad is alawite

also violence in douma, suburb of damascus

fyi

you recall the administration reversed state dept policy towards syria and sent an ambassador, robert ford, via recess appointment

Obama Will Send Envoy to Syria, Officials Say - NYTimes.com

Obama recess appointment: Robert Ford Ambassador to Syria - National Legislative Watch | Examiner.com

that was in december

only 4 sundays ago hillary and the defense secty toured all the sunday talks except fox, most urgently to explain obama's libya policy, but also touching on the unrest rocking the entire middle east

obama's sadsack secretary of state actually praised assad as "a reformer:"

”There is a different leader in Syria now, many of the members of Congress of both parties who have gone to Syria in recent months have said they believe he’s a reformer,” she said.

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Clinton calls Syrian tyrant a reformer

that was 29 days ago

are you sure these people know what they're doing?

Kandahar said:

Looks like Bashir Assad may be the next autocrat on the chopping block. Yes, he's brutal, and yes, he'll try to crush the protests just like every other Arab leader. But I don't think he's a Gaddafi. He doesn't have it in him to kill thousands upon thousands of people, and doesn't enjoy nearly as much popular support as his father did.

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gosh. a threat to Syria is sure to bring Iran into the conflict; this could potentially destabilize the entire region, and send that fragile area spinning into civil war and proxy war.

quick! someone alert the President so that he can appoint a commission and then do nothing!!!

The Prof said:

today:

BBC News - Syrian army attacks protest city of Deraa

the use of tanks is new, a severe escalation

5000 troops and 7 tanks advance into deraa on syria's southern border with jordan

electricity in deraa cut, phone service, border closed

25 killed, according to whatever sources bbc has to rely on, admittedly questionable

95 dead on friday, 12 on saturday, nation wide, most in jabla on the mediterranean

jabla is majority alawite, assad is alawite

also violence in douma, suburb of damascus

fyi

you recall the administration reversed state dept policy towards syria and sent an ambassador, robert ford, via recess appointment

Obama Will Send Envoy to Syria, Officials Say - NYTimes.com

Obama recess appointment: Robert Ford Ambassador to Syria - National Legislative Watch | Examiner.com

that was in december

only 4 sundays ago hillary and the defense secty toured all the sunday talks except fox, most urgently to explain obama's libya policy, but also touching on the unrest rocking the entire middle east

obama's sadsack secretary of state actually praised assad as "a reformer:"



Clinton calls Syrian tyrant a reformer

that was 29 days ago

are you sure these people know what they're doing?

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please, pshaw. Obama was a senator for, like, almost five whole minutes. Plus he looks so.. you know... thoughtful and wise and stuff.... he's doing fine.....