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France formally recognises Libyan rebels' authority

ReverendHellh0und said:
Obama could take a lesson here.
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I think this is a mistake. If the rebels had actually taken Tripoli, that would be a different story...but with our National Intelligence Director saying that Gaddafi is likely to survive, there seems to be no upside to officially recognizing the rebel government at this point, and plenty of downside.
 
NATO needs to make a fast decision. Does it commit as a unit or does it not? The rebels cannot hold against Khadaffi's airforce and tanks.
 
justabubba said:
surprised to see that you take your guidance in things military from the french

i can only hope that Obama does not follow your lead
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It is a rather unique thing, isn't it? The French taking the lead in a military matter.

To expand gas production, marketing and distribution, Libya is looking for foreign partners and investment to increase gas exports, particularly to Europe, mainly Italy and France.
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The opening to private investment has attracted foreign investors like the Corinthia Bab Africa Hotel, built in partnership with the Maltese. European firms, including France’s Club Med, are rumoured to have opened talks with the government for the construction of a few large resort facilities.
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The majority of Libya's exports is sold to European countries like Italy (562,000 bpd in January-October 2005), Germany (285,000 bpd), France (101,000 bpd), Spain and Greece. In addition, Libyan oil exports to the United States averaged 56,000 bpd over the first 10 months of 2005, after resuming in June 2004 for the first time in two decades.
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Invest in LIBYA : Business opportunities & territorial marketing
 
DiAnna said:
NATO needs to make a fast decision. Does it commit as a unit or does it not? The rebels cannot hold against Khadaffi's airforce and tanks.
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I have a feeling that lying behind France's recognition of the rebel state is the desire to begin supplying them with aid, possible weaponry without running into UN repercussions. If that IS the motivation, then I'm not going to criticise them.
 
Sarkozy took the decision unilaterally without informing his newly appointed Foreign Affairs minister, and our European partners. I can't help but think he is pulling the "Dubya-card" ... looking forward to getting involved in a war abroad to improve his personal ratings at home. It strikes me as premature and clumsy, very Sarkozy-esque.
 
ludahai said:
We shouldn't have economic ties with that monster. We should ALL cut him off... France is making the right move on moral grounds if nothing else...
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I honestly dont know what makes Qadaffi any more of a monster than Hussein, and people were going out of their way to break the rules to be in bed with his government.
 
paris said:
Sarkozy took the decision unilaterally without informing his newly appointed Foreign Affairs minister, and our European partners. I can't help but think he is pulling the "Dubya-card" ... looking forward to getting involved in a war abroad to improve his personal ratings at home. It strikes me as premature and clumsy, very Sarkozy-esque.
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I have not a clue what France is up to! I just noticed that in the case of Libya unlike the States with leaders supported by the West, from the beginning the West seemed to be trying to do a coup by stealth. It is the only place where we have seen people fighting as in battle.

and yes, looks like Gadaffi is winning. Another intervention?

There was a report of shooting at protests in Saudi Arabia last night - the West interfering, I don't think so. Only the other day I was listening to someone say how the Saudi's could help us with our problems with Libya. :shock: The Saudi's a people who will not even allow marches. What a confused morality or philosophy the west seems to have.
 
DiAnna said:
NATO needs to make a fast decision. Does it commit as a unit or does it not? The rebels cannot hold against Khadaffi's airforce and tanks.
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Why NATO? It is not NATOs job to be a peace-keeper force, it is to protect its members. No members have been attacked.

If anything it should be the UN that should be giving the go ahead, and then asking NATO or whoever to carry it out. We have to be very very very careful here, and I fully understand the US in this case.. we NEED the Arab nations especially Tunisia and Egypt to be on board if not asking for out-right intervention. Else it will just look like another arrogant western imperialistic for oil a la Iraq intervention. Yes it is horrible what Gadaffi is doing to his people, but to be brutally frank.. other dictators are doing the same or worse and we are not actively considering intervention there.. but Libya has .. OIL.

On top of that, there is the problem of logistics. A lot of aircraft are needed and the closest bases are in Italy which is hours away, which makes in forcing a no fly zone quite hard.. the Libyan Air Force can be off the ground and hitting the target and back before NATO or whoever jets get even near. So the jets have to be in constant patrol far from home and that is never good. It would help if they could use Tunisia and Egypt as bases though, but..

And even if they took out the air force, then the rebels are totally disorganised and they are facing professionally trained troops, so it is far from certain that the rebels would win.

Personally I think the best would be to kill Gadaffi because then the house of cards would collapse.. or so I suspect.
 
alexa said:
I have not a clue what France is up to! I just noticed that in the case of Libya unlike the States with leaders supported by the West, from the beginning the West seemed to be trying to do a coup by stealth. It is the only place where we have seen people fighting as in battle.

and yes, looks like Gadaffi is winning. Another intervention?

There was a report of shooting at protests in Saudi Arabia last night - the West interfering, I don't think so. Only the other day I was listening to someone say how the Saudi's could help us with our problems with Libya. :shock: The Saudi's a people who will not even allow marches. What a confused morality or philosophy the west seems to have.
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Me neither. But I don't like how Sarko is trying to act alone on this. France should not emulate American right-wingers. Their unilateral foreign policy has proved to be damaging for their country's image abroad.
 
PeteEU said:
Why NATO? It is not NATOs job to be a peace-keeper force, it is to protect its members. No members have been attacked.

If anything it should be the UN that should be giving the go ahead, and then asking NATO or whoever to carry it out. We have to be very very very careful here, and I fully understand the US in this case.. we NEED the Arab nations especially Tunisia and Egypt to be on board if not asking for out-right intervention. Else it will just look like another arrogant western imperialistic for oil a la Iraq intervention. Yes it is horrible what Gadaffi is doing to his people, but to be brutally frank.. other dictators are doing the same or worse and we are not actively considering intervention there.. but Libya has .. OIL.

On top of that, there is the problem of logistics. A lot of aircraft are needed and the closest bases are in Italy which is hours away, which makes in forcing a no fly zone quite hard.. the Libyan Air Force can be off the ground and hitting the target and back before NATO or whoever jets get even near. So the jets have to be in constant patrol far from home and that is never good. It would help if they could use Tunisia and Egypt as bases though, but..

And even if they took out the air force, then the rebels are totally disorganised and they are facing professionally trained troops, so it is far from certain that the rebels would win.

Personally I think the best would be to kill Gadaffi because then the house of cards would collapse.. or so I suspect.
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Agreed, except for the last sentence. Reagan tried to kill Gadaffi in 1987. It didn't work out well.
 
paris said:
Agreed, except for the last sentence. Reagan tried to kill Gadaffi in 1987. It didn't work out well.
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Well for one it was 1987, so 24 years ago. Weapons technology has advanced considerably. Also, they pretty much know where he is now as he cant move around the country safely any more. And who said it should be by air attack.... assassination would work as well.
 
PeteEU said:
Well for one it was 1987, so 24 years ago. Weapons technology has advanced considerably. Also, they pretty much know where he is now as he cant move around the country safely any more. And who said it should be by air attack.... assassination would work as well.
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Wasn't that what was thought about Osama bin Laden when we had post millenium cruise missiles, spy satellites and all the other technology at our aid?

Personally I think Sarkozy is worried about his ratings at home, his Foreign Minister has embarrassed herself and Sarkozy faces losing to Marine le Pen's extremist National Front in next year's election.

The BBC news last night was with rebel forces who were asking where the so-called "no-fly zone" was, they're losing heart and Ghaddafi's forces are taking back towns that were held. I have a horrible feeling this will last another 2 weeks without external intervention. The UN won't authorise NATO - Ghaddafi is an old friend of the USSR so Russia and China will block any resolutions.
 
PeteEU said:
Well for one it was 1987, so 24 years ago. Weapons technology has advanced considerably. Also, they pretty much know where he is now as he cant move around the country safely any more. And who said it should be by air attack.... assassination would work as well.
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Our news keeps saying that there is a sizeable number of people who are genuinely supportive of Gaddafi. There is also no system for the people to move towards, no political parties though I understand that Libyans are the best educated in the middle east.

We do not know what is going to happen in any of these countries. It must be left for the people to decide. Do you believe that leaving a power vaccum in Libya is necessarily the best thing and is that not what taking out Gaddafi, if such a thing could be done, would do?
 
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Infinite Chaos said:
Wasn't that what was thought about Osama bin Laden when we had post millenium cruise missiles, spy satellites and all the other technology at our aid?
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Well there is a huge difference here. Bin Laden was/is in hiding from the start.. Gadaffi has to show his face.

Personally I think Sarkozy is worried about his ratings at home, his Foreign Minister has embarrassed herself and Sarkozy faces losing to Marine le Pen's extremist National Front in next year's election.
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I agree.. as for loosing to National Front.. dont agree.

The BBC news last night was with rebel forces who were asking where the so-called "no-fly zone" was, they're losing heart and Ghaddafi's forces are taking back towns that were held. I have a horrible feeling this will last another 2 weeks without external intervention. The UN won't authorise NATO - Ghaddafi is an old friend of the USSR so Russia and China will block any resolutions.
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That is exactly the problem. We the west can bomb Gadaffi back to the stone age, but who will replace him for one, and would it even be enough for the disorganised rebel forces to win? As for Russia, they have already put in sanctions against Gadaffi and China can be convinced. The real problem is actually the US at the moment.
 
alexa said:
Our news keeps saying that there is a sizeable number of people who are genuinely supportive of Gaddafi.
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There is, Al Jazerra, BBC all say so .. not so much the American news of course. His whole tribe, which is a considerable number of people in the western areas, are with him and wont dump him any time soon. What we have in many ways, is a tribal war between East and West.

There is also no system for the people to move towards, no political parties though I understand that Libyans are the best educated in the middle east.
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Yep that is a huge problem. But according to Al Jazerra the rebels are doing the paperwork so to say.. but it takes time and without a unified leadership and front figure, then it is especially hard.

We do not know what is going to happen in any of these countries. It must be left for the people to decide. Do you believe that leaving a power vaccum in Libya is necessarily the best thing and is that not what taking out Gaddafi, if such a thing could be done, would do?
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No we dont know what will happen and that is the problem. Getting rid of Gaddafi will happen at some point.. he is an old man, but the who will replace him and with what is a big unknown. The biggest threat is a power vaccum no doubt about that, but if it stood between aiding the rebels via bombing the **** out of Gaddafi forces and him vs assassination .. then I would choose assassination any day.
 
PeteEU said:
Well there is a huge difference here. Bin Laden was/is in hiding from the start.. Gadaffi has to show his face.
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The theory was that technology would easily pin-point Bin Laden. If we killed him it was years after we went into Afghanistan. I don't see any validation for an interdiction to get Gaddafi happening anytime soon and that will allow him to get cover. I'm also reminded how long it took to find Saddam Hussein and he had enemies within too just as Gaddafi has.

PeteEU said:
-- I agree.. as for loosing to National Front.. dont agree
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Currently there's a real risk Marine le Pen will knock him out in round one. Of course France will embrace and unite against whoever opposes her but her father surprised everybody last time round and he was less popular.

PeteEU said:
The real problem is actually the US at the moment.
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The US needs to simply stay quiet and out of this, there's great suspicion of the US propping up people like Mubarak and we don't want whoever takes over to be seen as beholden to the US otherwise you'll just end up with an Islamist Govt.
 
PeteEU said:
There is, Al Jazerra, BBC all say so .. not so much the American news of course. His whole tribe, which is a considerable number of people in the western areas, are with him and wont dump him any time soon. What we have in many ways, is a tribal war between East and West.
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I have heard he has three tribes on his side..so yes, even as he says there is the danger of tribal war

PeteEU said:
Yep that is a huge problem. But according to Al Jazerra the rebels are doing the paperwork so to say.. but it takes time and without a unified leadership and front figure, then it is especially hard.
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Yes, I have heard because they are intelligent and well educated there is no reason why they would not be able to construct something appropriate fairly quickly



PeteEU said:
No we dont know what will happen and that is the problem. Getting rid of Gaddafi will happen at some point.. he is an old man, but the who will replace him and with what is a big unknown. The biggest threat is a power vaccum no doubt about that, but if it stood between aiding the rebels via bombing the **** out of Gaddafi forces and him vs assassination .. then I would choose assassination any day.
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I would like something a bit more subtle in such a volatile situation. Last night we heard the Libyan government speaking about democracy. Gadaffi has his people about the place discussing things. If a way can be found for him to discretely by choice leave power and for the country to come together accepting democracy then that would be best - otherwise I suspect civil war, people doing real massacres and/ or the west putting it's foot in, needed or not.
 
alexa said:
I have heard he has three tribes on his side..so yes, even as he says there is the danger of tribal war



Yes, I have heard because they are intelligent and well educated there is no reason why they would not be able to construct something appropriate fairly quickly





I would like something a bit more subtle in such a volatile situation. Last night we heard the Libyan government speaking about democracy. Gadaffi has his people about the place discussing things. If a way can be found for him to discretely by choice leave power and for the country to come together accepting democracy then that would be best - otherwise I suspect civil war, people doing real massacres and/ or the west putting it's foot in, needed or not.
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What this situation does NOT require is the West being seen to be intervening. If the situation does deteriorate into open civil war, the only thing to be done is for the UN to get monitors in there asap, and peace-keeping troops from non-aligned nations. Such arrangements won't stop the worst, should either side decide on it, but it may just dissuade them, especially Gadaffi, from the worst excesses. Should those excesses occur, a full-scale trade blockade of Libya needs to be on the agenda.

Until the situation is clear, the US is doing the right thing. France is playing a dangerous game in pre-empting the transfer of de facto and de jure power away from Gadaffi.
 
IMO, unless France is willing to supply arms to the anti-Gadhafi transitional government, it risks seeing its diplomatic recognition ring hollow. While I do not believe Gadhafi's forces will quickly recapture eastern Libya--picking off units that are overextended is quite different from fighting more concentrated forces--a defeat without French arms assistance would indicate to the world that French diplomatic recognition is insignificant or worse.
 
Andalublue said:
What this situation does NOT require is the West being seen to be intervening. If the situation does deteriorate into open civil war, the only thing to be done is for the UN to get monitors in there asap, and peace-keeping troops from non-aligned nations. Such arrangements won't stop the worst, should either side decide on it, but it may just dissuade them, especially Gadaffi, from the worst excesses. Should those excesses occur, a full-scale trade blockade of Libya needs to be on the agenda.

Until the situation is clear, the US is doing the right thing. France is playing a dangerous game in pre-empting the transfer of de facto and de jure power away from Gadaffi.
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Now, it is. I have heard things wheich make me think Gadaffi may be willing to leave - the talk of democracy and the talks outside Libya. If he can be persuaded that it is time to go I think that is the best solution.

Sanctions - they are already talking about people suffering hunger.
 
Infinite Chaos said:
The theory was that technology would easily pin-point Bin Laden. If we killed him it was years after we went into Afghanistan. I don't see any validation for an interdiction to get Gaddafi happening anytime soon and that will allow him to get cover. I'm also reminded how long it took to find Saddam Hussein and he had enemies within too just as Gaddafi has.
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No technology is as good as actually first hand human intel. With Bin Laden that is near impossible to get, Saddam had lost and was on the run.. Gaddafi is still trying to keep his country and needs to be out in the open to rally the troops. That is a huge difference.

Currently there's a real risk Marine le Pen will knock him out in round one. Of course France will embrace and unite against whoever opposes her but her father surprised everybody last time round and he was less popular.
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We shall see.

The US needs to simply stay quiet and out of this, there's great suspicion of the US propping up people like Mubarak and we don't want whoever takes over to be seen as beholden to the US otherwise you'll just end up with an Islamist Govt.
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Yep that is why it was wise for Clinton to say it had to be a UN thing not a US thing.
 
donsutherland1 said:
IMO, unless France is willing to supply arms to the anti-Gadhafi transitional government, it risks seeing its diplomatic recognition ring hollow. While I do not believe Gadhafi's forces will quickly recapture eastern Libya--picking off units that are overextended is quite different from fighting more concentrated forces--a defeat without French arms assistance would indicate to the world that French diplomatic recognition is insignificant or worse.
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French diplomatic recognition is bad enough already thanks to Sarkozy's clumsy Govt. We should not intervene without UN mandate. We should not help the rebels other than with humanitarian assistance. The short-arsed wee Pétainist Sarko and his Napoleonic complex should abandon his mediterranean folly. I hope other EU countries' heads of state will put him back in his place during today's summit.
 
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donsutherland1 said:
IMO, unless France is willing to supply arms to the anti-Gadhafi transitional government, it risks seeing its diplomatic recognition ring hollow. While I do not believe Gadhafi's forces will quickly recapture eastern Libya--picking off units that are overextended is quite different from fighting more concentrated forces--a defeat without French arms assistance would indicate to the world that French diplomatic recognition is insignificant or worse.
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Looks like Cameron is dragging us along too

France, UK seek targeted strikes in Libya if needed - Yahoo! News UK

(Not that I agree with mustard gas but I saw all too well the moral position of MP's on this when I saw the kurds being gassed on my tv screne)
 
paris said:
The UK and France should be very careful with this. Remember the Suez crisis?
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Not well enough I am afraid but thank you for beginning to bring the issue possibly nearer the point. ;)
 
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