Hundreds of Libyans shot down

Demon of Light · Feb 20, 2011

Re: Libyan unit "defects" as more Arab protests simmer

Kandahar said:
To be honest, I'm quite surprised. A massive display of violence is usually a very effective way for a horrible government like Qadaffi's to silence protesters. But maybe it was just too little, too late. The BBC is reporting that Qadaffi's son appeared on state television and admitted that the military overreacted. He also seemed to be suggesting that Libya was at risk of fragmenting into two countries, since the Qadaffis have essentially lost control of the entire eastern half of the country but maintain power in Tripoli.

It is interesting to see where things are getting the most out of control. Libya was actually a late-comer to this wave of protests yet things look to be really poised for major change. In the Gulf states, save maybe Yemen, it seems to be more stable but North African governments are just collapsing left and right. This might be due to these governments being secular dictatorships that rely heavily on the military. So far in the monarchies there does not appear to be much risk of the governments falling.

donsutherland1 · Feb 20, 2011

Re: Libyan unit "defects" as more Arab protests simmer

Demon of Light said:
It is interesting to see where things are getting the most out of control. Libya was actually a late-comer to this wave of protests yet things look to be really poised for major change.

In Libya, several factors may have contributed to a latent buildup of pressure that was unleashed by events in Egypt and Tunisia:

1. The Quaddafi regime barred political parties (no effective means for dissent existed)
2. The regime barred labor strikes
3. Traditional tribal leaders, who previously commanded significant influence, were largely rendered impotent in the state's affairs
4. Social change lagged with Libya remaining among the most "conservative" Arab states.

Those faultlines likely made Libya ripe for unrest. Amplifying things is a high poverty rate (nearly one-third of the population). The success of popular movements in Tunisia and Egypt almost certainly acted as the trigger in an environment that was increasingly conducive to demands for political change, especially if the success of those movements hinted that there was some prospect that Tripoli's authoritarian regime might also collapse.

However, it remains to be seen what the outcome will be. First, the current regime is brutal and has already carried out massacres. Second, even if the regime is toppled, there is no assurance that the tribal rivalries won't reassert themselves creating new challenges for rebuilding stability.

DiAnna · Feb 20, 2011

Re: Libyan unit "defects" as more Arab protests simmer

Khadaffi's son said in a speech today that Libya would return to local government, tribal and municipal governments; the constitution will be rewritten and a small, less powerful national government would handle the nation's international affairs, including the sale of it's only resource, oil.

Of course this was hidden inside 30 minutes of rambling warnings about the horrors that would result if the protesters continued with violence staged by outside instigators, drunks and western money, which was "paying" people to protest. It seems that Libya would be divided into a dozen baby countries, all fighting over the oil, all starving because the oil couldn't be sold, western business would leave Libya, the people will all starve, then Europe and America will come after the oil and colonize Libya all over again!

Thing is, he may be partially right. Libya IS a tribal nation, and we've seen how well those do under a forced "democratic government."

apdst · Feb 20, 2011

donsutherland1 said:
Mostly other African countries. I have not seen a breakdown by country, only a reference to mercenaries from other African countries (possibly neighboring states?).

Reports of Qhadaffi using mercenaries go back as far as '73, when he recruited Palestinian and Druze mercs. I would be interested in seeing a source aside from the media indicating that he still has a significant contigent of mercs on his payroll, though.

apdst · Feb 20, 2011

Jetboogieman said:
I'd bet my left testicle there's a few former SANDF guys in there.

Why?................

apdst · Feb 21, 2011

Re: Libyan unit "defects" as more Arab protests simmer

This is Obama's cue to start working on material support for the anti-government forces.

Kandahar · Feb 21, 2011

Re: Libyan unit "defects" as more Arab protests simmer

apdst said:
This is Obama's cue to start working on material support for the anti-government forces.

What exactly do you want him to do?

toomuchtime_ · Feb 21, 2011

Re: Libyan unit "defects" as more Arab protests simmer

Kandahar said:
What exactly do you want him to do?

They certainly don't need to hear a speech about hope and change.

apdst · Feb 21, 2011

Re: Libyan unit "defects" as more Arab protests simmer

Kandahar said:
What exactly do you want him to do?

Make contact and see if they wish to have material support to aid in their uprising against Qhadaffi's government.

If they refuse help, then they're obviously on their own. However, if they are willing to accept whatever support we can give them, we should give it to them.

While they are winning their liberty, we should be in the process of sculpting a support force to move in and help them get things started; a few combat troops for security, but mostly support units with the necessary equipment and skills to rebuild infrastructure, establish telephone and electricity grids, get the water running, make sure that everyone gets fed, etc.

Jetboogieman · Feb 21, 2011

apdst said:
Why?................

Ex South African Special Forces/Police Special Forces get hired hired all over the world for all kinds of ****.

I mean just check this out.

South African Police Service Special Task Force - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In 2004 it was reported that the SAPS STF may have lost nearly 60 percent of its active members to private companies recruiting security personnel to work in Iraq

.

If you're interested check this stuff out, these guys are the real ****ing deal man.

apdst · Feb 21, 2011

Jetboogieman said:
Ex South African Special Forces/Police Special Forces get hired hired all over the world for all kinds of ****.

I mean just check this out.

South African Police Service Special Task Force - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

.

If you're interested check this stuff out, these guys are the real ****ing deal man.

I doubt that very many of the SADF is working for Qhadaffi, if any. Mercs have their politics, too. Typically, they only hire out to causes they believe in.

Qhadaffi doesn't have any reason to have a large merc force on his payroll, which is why I would like to see a source other than the media that is notorious for sensationalizing the story.

Jetboogieman · Feb 21, 2011

apdst said:
I doubt that very many of the SADF is working for Qhadaffi, if any. Mercs have their politics, too. Typically, they only hire out to causes they believe in.

Qhadaffi doesn't have any reason to have a large merc force on his payroll, which is why I would like to see a source other than the media that is notorious for sensationalizing the story.

I didn't say the SADF was working with Gadaffi, however the ANC is very very friendly with him, considering he was a big supporter of them back during the struggle, he also supported nut jobs like Idi Amin

rof

All in all, after the Angola Bush war, there were a **** load of highly trained, battle hardened South African soldiers who were hired out by all kinds of people to do all kinds of things.

I wasn't suggesting there was a massive contingent of South African ex soldiers in Libya, but again, I'd bet there might be a few.

Kandahar · Feb 21, 2011

Re: Libyan unit "defects" as more Arab protests simmer

apdst said:
Make contact and see if they wish to have material support to aid in their uprising against Qhadaffi's government.

Make contact with who? Qadaffi banned all political parties, so it's just a bunch of angry people in the street.

apdst said:
If they refuse help, then they're obviously on their own. However, if they are willing to accept whatever support we can give them, we should give it to them.

You mean just send a ship full of guns into Tripoli or Benghazi and start handing them out on the streets? I think Qadaffi would figure that out pretty quickly. Besides, the revolution will be over (one way or the other) long before we could get the logistics in place to actually do something like that.

Until the protesters win, the most we can really offer them is moral/diplomatic support.

apdst said:
While they are winning their liberty, we should be in the process of sculpting a support force to move in and help them get things started; a few combat troops for security, but mostly support units with the necessary equipment and skills to rebuild infrastructure, establish telephone and electricity grids, get the water running, make sure that everyone gets fed, etc.

I wouldn't be opposed to some humanitarian/peacekeeping presence in Libya AFTER the uprising defeats Qadaffi, if the new government desired it, but our military is stretched too thin as it is to place ourselves in the middle of a potential quagmire BEFORE Qadaffi is overthrown...especially in a country that is mostly irrelevant to American interests.

DiAnna · Feb 21, 2011

Re: Libyan unit "defects" as more Arab protests simmer

We really need to stay out of this. If Obama again publicly backs the protesters, we're going to lose all our ME allies who have having their own domestic troubles, like Yemen, Jordan and Bair'an. We have to let these countries sort out their internal dynamics so we can work with whoever the hell is left standing.

Demon of Light · Feb 21, 2011

Re: Libyan unit "defects" as more Arab protests simmer

DiAnna said:
Khadaffi's son said in a speech today that Libya would return to local government, tribal and municipal governments; the constitution will be rewritten and a small, less powerful national government would handle the nation's international affairs, including the sale of it's only resource, oil.

If they actually implement something like that it would be the most radical reform response we've seen so far with these countries.

Kandahar · Feb 21, 2011

Re: Libyan unit "defects" as more Arab protests simmer

DiAnna said:
We really need to stay out of this. If Obama again publicly backs the protesters, we're going to lose all our ME allies who have having their own domestic troubles, like Yemen, Jordan and Bair'an. We have to let these countries sort out their internal dynamics so we can work with whoever the hell is left standing.

I mostly agree. I think that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton should continue to urge governments to refrain from violence and to respect freedom of speech...but beyond that it's probably better to stay out of it. If we side with the protesters and the regime manages to hold onto power, it will be difficult to reestablish a relationship with them.

apdst · Feb 21, 2011

Re: Libyan unit "defects" as more Arab protests simmer

DiAnna said:
We really need to stay out of this. If Obama again publicly backs the protesters, we're going to lose all our ME allies who have having their own domestic troubles, like Yemen, Jordan and Bair'an. We have to let these countries sort out their internal dynamics so we can work with whoever the hell is left standing.

Yeah, let's stay out of it and let the crazies roll in and take the place over...just like Afghanistan.

apdst · Feb 21, 2011

Re: Libyan unit "defects" as more Arab protests simmer

Kandahar said:
Make contact with who? Qadaffi banned all political parties, so it's just a bunch of angry people in the street.

Make an attempt to contact whomever is acting honcho. Help them organize.

You mean just send a ship full of guns into Tripoli or Benghazi and start handing them out on the streets? I think Qadaffi would figure that out pretty quickly.

That's just stupid, dude.

Besides, the revolution will be over (one way or the other) long before we could get the logistics in place to actually do something like that.

You don't know that.

Until the protesters win, the most we can really offer them is moral/diplomatic support.

You don't know they're going to win, either. All the more reason to help them.

I wouldn't be opposed to some humanitarian/peacekeeping presence in Libya AFTER the uprising defeats Qadaffi, if the new government desired it, but our military is stretched too thin as it is to place ourselves in the middle of a potential quagmire BEFORE Qadaffi is overthrown...especially in a country that is mostly irrelevant to American interests.

You didn't say that when you wanted to launch a massive peace keeping mission to the Ivory Coast.

apdst · Feb 21, 2011

Re: Libyan unit "defects" as more Arab protests simmer

Kandahar said:
I mostly agree. I think that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton should continue to urge governments to refrain from violence and to respect freedom of speech...but beyond that it's probably better to stay out of it. If we side with the protesters and the regime manages to hold onto power, it will be difficult to reestablish a relationship with them.

You say that, as if Qhadaffi is already an ally. :lamo

toomuchtime_ · Feb 21, 2011

Re: Libyan unit "defects" as more Arab protests simmer

DiAnna said:
We really need to stay out of this. If Obama again publicly backs the protesters, we're going to lose all our ME allies who have having their own domestic troubles, like Yemen, Jordan and Bair'an. We have to let these countries sort out their internal dynamics so we can work with whoever the hell is left standing.

Libya is different from states which have been allies/friends/clients of our's. Obama's treatment of Mubarak may have damaged our relationship with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, but Qaddafi was never an ally or friend of our's and had no great following among other Arab governments, so rough talk about this regime probably would not cause the same kind of bitterness among friendly Arab regimes Mubarak's treatment did; but the ME is not Eastern Europe, and historically revolutions if the ME have not led to more democracy or greater respect for human rights, so we should be cautious about supporting any parties or actions and restrict our statements to support for principles and processes we would like to see advanced, democracy, respect for human rights and peaceful negotiations.

Kandahar · Feb 21, 2011

Re: Libyan unit "defects" as more Arab protests simmer

apdst said:
Make an attempt to contact whomever is acting honcho. Help them organize.

I'm not sure what help you're suggesting. In what way are we capable of helping them organize?

apdst said:
That's just stupid, dude.

That's what I imagine when you talk of sending them "material support." If you're referring to something else, by all means please explain your strategy.

apdst said:
You don't know that.

You don't know they're going to win, either. All the more reason to help them.

No, I don't know that they're going to win. It doesn't change the fact that unless/until they do, our options for helping them are limited. The United States is not omnipotent.

apdst said:
You didn't say that when you wanted to launch a massive peace keeping mission to the Ivory Coast.

I never said anything about a "massive peacekeeping mission," I suggested we send a few thousand troops to depose the old regime and stay there a couple months. Besides, the dynamics are entirely different. I was talking about a small African country where the US enjoys a 95% approval rating, that has already democratically elected its next president, where the old president has a puny military and only enough money to keep them happy for a couple months. You're talking about taking sides in a dispute in a large Arab country which is armed to the teeth, and sending our soldiers in to clash with a long-entrenched regime. There's a SLIGHT difference there. :roll:

Kandahar · Feb 21, 2011

Re: Libyan unit "defects" as more Arab protests simmer

apdst said:
You say that, as if Qhadaffi is already an ally. :lamo

He's not an ally, but relations have been improving steadily for the last decade. Qadaffi obviously wanted to get back into the West's good graces, and had been taking concrete actions to do so. George Bush's rapprochement with Libya was one of the foreign policy highlights of his administration, IMO.

If his regime does manage to hold onto power, I don't want him going back to his old ways of running a pariah state and pursuing WMDs. No one wins in that scenario. That's why I think we should continue to press for nonviolence and freedom of speech, without actively siding with the protesters.

mbig · Feb 21, 2011

They're gonna Mow-em-down.

Gadhafi's son warns of civil war in Libya - Yahoo! News
By SARAH EL DEEB, Associated Press – Sun Feb 20, 10:34 pm ET

CAIRO – After anti-government unrest spread to the Libyan capital of Tripoli and protesters seized military bases and weapons Sunday, Moammar Gadhafi's son went on state television to proclaim that his father remained in charge with the army's backing and would "fight until the last man, the last woman, the last bullet."
Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, in the regime's first comments on the six days of demonstrations, warned the protesters that they risked igniting a civil war in which Libya's oil wealth "will be burned."

The speech followed a fierce crackdown by security forces who fired on thousands of demonstrators and funeral marchers in the eastern city of Benghazi in a bloody cycle of violence that killed 60 people on Sunday alone, according to a doctor in one city hospital. Since the six days of unrest began, more than 200 people have been killed, according to medical officials, human rights groups and exiled dissidents.

Libya response has been the harshest of any Arab country that has been wracked by the protests that toppled long-serving leaders in neighboring Tunisia and Egypt. But Gadhafi's son said his father would prevail.

"We are not Tunisia and Egypt," he said. "Moammar Gadhafi, our leader, is leading the battle in Tripoli, and we are with him.

"The armed forces are with him. Tens of thousands are heading here to be with him. We will fight until the last man, the last woman, the last bullet," he said in a Rambling and sometimes Confused speech of nearly 40 minutes."..."

apdst · Feb 21, 2011

Re: Libyan unit "defects" as more Arab protests simmer

Kandahar said:
He's not an ally, but relations have been improving steadily for the last decade. Qadaffi obviously wanted to get back into the West's good graces, and had been taking concrete actions to do so. George Bush's rapprochement with Libya was one of the foreign policy highlights of his administration, IMO.

If his regime does manage to hold onto power, I don't want him going back to his old ways of running a pariah state and pursuing WMDs. No one wins in that scenario. That's why I think we should continue to press for nonviolence and freedom of speech, without actively siding with the protesters.

Relations have improved steadily, since we bombed his stupid ass. That was accelerated, when he saw how quickly that GW would launch an invasion. That's how folks in that part of the world think. All your diplomacy don't mean jack **** to them.

apdst · Feb 21, 2011

Jetboogieman said:
I didn't say the SADF was working with Gadaffi, however the ANC is very very friendly with him, considering he was a big supporter of them back during the struggle, he also supported nut jobs like Idi Amin rof

All in all, after the Angola Bush war, there were a **** load of highly trained, battle hardened South African soldiers who were hired out by all kinds of people to do all kinds of things.

I wasn't suggesting there was a massive contingent of South African ex soldiers in Libya, but again, I'd bet there might be a few.

I'm not saying that there's a large contigent of any one nationality of mercs working for Qhadaffi.

I'm actually saying, that I doubt there is a large contigent of mercs, at all.

Hundreds of Libyans shot down

Demon of Light

Bohemian Revolutionary

donsutherland1

DiAnna

Hooter Babe

apdst

apdst

apdst

Kandahar

Enemy Combatant

toomuchtime_

Well-known member

apdst

Jetboogieman

Somewhere in Babylon

apdst

Jetboogieman

Somewhere in Babylon

Kandahar

Enemy Combatant

DiAnna

Hooter Babe

Demon of Light

Bohemian Revolutionary

Kandahar

Enemy Combatant

apdst

apdst

apdst

toomuchtime_

Well-known member

Kandahar

Enemy Combatant

Kandahar

Enemy Combatant

mbig

onomatopoeic

apdst

apdst