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Iran's Revolutionary Guard pledges to hold fire

Kandahar

Kandahar

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But in the letter, which is signed by senior officers commanding Guards units in Tehran, Qom, Isfahan and Tabriz, they urge Major Gen Jafari to "use your authority over the Basij to order them to leave their truncheons at home next time."

It goes on to state unequivocally, "We promise our people that we will not shoot nor beat our brothers who are seeking to express legitimate protest against the policies and conduct of their leader."

Iran's Revolutionary Guard pledges to hold fire - Telegraph
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The only thing that keeps dictatorships in power in the face of popular revolt is the military's willingness to crush the rebellion. It sounds like the Revolutionary Guard may have just lost its nerve, having reportedly pledged not to fire on peaceful protesters. Could this be the death knell of the Islamic Republic?
 
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While this is a good sign, I wouldn't say that it is "the death knell" of Iran. People in power will do whatever they have to to keep the status quo. If the Iranian Guard won't shoot protesters, then they'll find someone who will.
 
The mullahs aren't about to watch happen in Iran what's happened in other countries. These poor Iranians are going to have to be willing to die by the thousands to overthrow Ahmedinejad and the Islamist state.

Then again, no one knows what happens in these situations better than Iranians. They watched their revolution get hijacked once by Islamists in the 70s. Can they manage to do it again?

Again, Ahmedinejad is willing to kill a million people if he has to.
 
It will take a lot more than the Revolutionary Guard standing down to have any type of monumental change in Iran. You have the Supreme Leader, the President, the Majjils, the Guardian Council, and the Expediency Council that are still in control of all the important decisions.
 
At best, for the sake of the Islamic Revolution they will push Ahmadinejad out of office, which will preserve the system while providing enough of a win to placate protesters.
 
Kandahar said:
The only thing that keeps dictatorships in power in the face of popular revolt is the military's willingness to crush the rebellion. It sounds like the Revolutionary Guard may have just lost its nerve, having reportedly pledged not to fire on peaceful protesters. Could this be the death knell of the Islamic Republic?
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Perhaps its just lip service for PR.
 
Demon of Light said:
At best, for the sake of the Islamic Revolution they will push Ahmadinejad out of office, which will preserve the system while providing enough of a win to placate protesters.
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I don't know. Unlike most countries over there, Iranians are generally well educated and pretty westernized in their thinking. It's going to depend on organization and resolve. It will cost a lot of lives.

I just wish we could help.
 
Erod said:
I don't know. Unlike most countries over there, Iranians are generally well educated and pretty westernized in their thinking. It's going to depend on organization and resolve. It will cost a lot of lives.

I just wish we could help.
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We could send some guns to them. :mrgreen:

Meanwhile, enjoy this picture of the Mullah's henchmen getting the living crap kicked out of them. :)

img-article---iran-protest-gallery-launch_10525028487.jpg
 
Erod said:
The mullahs aren't about to watch happen in Iran what's happened in other countries. These poor Iranians are going to have to be willing to die by the thousands to overthrow Ahmedinejad and the Islamist state.

Then again, no one knows what happens in these situations better than Iranians. They watched their revolution get hijacked once by Islamists in the 70s. Can they manage to do it again?

Again, Ahmedinejad is willing to kill a million people if he has to.
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He might be willing to...but unless he's going to pick up a gun himself and personally kill a million people, it sounds like he might not have anyone to carry out that order. In any case, it's Ali Khameini - not Ahmedinejad - who is the truly intractable one here. In the past couple years, Ahmedinejad has actually shown some pragmatism unlike Khameinei.
 
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Degreez said:
It will take a lot more than the Revolutionary Guard standing down to have any type of monumental change in Iran. You have the Supreme Leader, the President, the Majjils, the Guardian Council, and the Expediency Council that are still in control of all the important decisions.
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Without the force of the Revolutionary Guard backing them up, all of those institutions could very easily fall by the wayside. None of those institutions are the ones with big guns.
 
Demon of Light said:
At best, for the sake of the Islamic Revolution they will push Ahmadinejad out of office, which will preserve the system while providing enough of a win to placate protesters.
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I don't think that's going to cut it. Unlike two years ago, the protesters' anger is directed at Khameini, not Ahmadinejad. According to Wikileaks, Ahmadinejad is actually far less crazy than he often appears. In fact, he was playing the role of the liberal during the last round of protests. A couple years ago, he suggested that the regime placate the protesters by allowing more freedom of speech, freedom of the press, and social freedoms. For that suggestion, the chief of the IRGC slapped him in the face.

It seems like the IRGC chief doesn't have much support from his underlings though, from the sound of this letter they wrote to him.
 
scourge99 said:
Perhaps its just lip service for PR.
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I don't really see how the specific IRGC commanders who made this promise would gain any PR, or why they would need it in the first place...It makes more sense to take them at their word and assume that they truly don't want to fire on the protesters.

From the regime's perspective, this development should be terrifying. If people believe that they can protest without consequence, they are more likely to do so and the regime is likely to fall.
 
Kandahar said:
I don't really see how the specific IRGC commanders who made this promise would gain any PR
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Then why would they make this statement publicly rather than through less open communications? They are playing politics.

Kandahar said:
I or why they would need it in the first place.
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They have a political element to their group, do they not? The iranian gov't is always playing up "the people" and "the revolution" but as we know its just a political gimmick. As soon as "the revolution" and "the people" conflict with what those in charge want then crackdowns occur.

Seems like IRGC might be playing the same game to their advantage.

Kandahar said:
I It makes more sense to take them at their word and assume that they truly don't want to fire on the protesters.
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My point isn't that they secretly wish to fire on them so this appears irrelevant.

Kandahar said:
I From the regime's perspective, this development should be terrifying. If people believe that they can protest without consequence, they are more likely to do so and the regime is likely to fall.
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I definitely see your point. I'm no expert on Iranian politics. I'm just presenting another perspective based on what I do know of Iran.
 
Kandahar said:
The only thing that keeps dictatorships in power in the face of popular revolt is the military's willingness to crush the rebellion. It sounds like the Revolutionary Guard may have just lost its nerve, having reportedly pledged not to fire on peaceful protesters. Could this be the death knell of the Islamic Republic?
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Since when does "Hezbollah" have a problem with killing women and children or hiding behind them? Read your KORAN. If these IMAMS believe these crowds of pro democracy demonstrators are "persecuting" the representatives of the faith, "Smte them on the Neck until you have routed them, Slay them wherever you find them, WARFARE IS ORDAINED IN YOU." (Surah 2:216-217, 190-194, 47: 4) Strange that the only nation that has not been condemned by this Administration for HUMAN RIGHTS violation is IRAN.

This is much like His Speech on Democratic CIVILITY. Simply look to Wisconsin....and the signs being carried around, and the Representatives who are calling the Governor, HITLER, or a TERRORIST. Real CIVILITY coming from the left. I have yet to see the PREZ come out and point out the incivility coming from the left, no what THE PEOPLE get from the WHITE HOUSE, "this is an attack on the Unions". This entire uprising even here in the states is being manipulated by those who would hope to destroy Capitalism, nothing else. They are even willing to get into bed with the terrorists.
 
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The revolutionary guard has a massive interest in keeping the current system, seeing as how they own a large portion of the Iranian economy. The last round of protests was a response to such a corrupt economic system, and the guards are aware that they won't get to keep their wealth if the people are truly in charge. I would bet on incremental reforms or scapegoating a public figurehead, but I doubt the overall system will be replaced.
 
Mr. Invisible said:
While this is a good sign, I wouldn't say that it is "the death knell" of Iran. People in power will do whatever they have to to keep the status quo. If the Iranian Guard won't shoot protesters, then they'll find someone who will.
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I agree. The Mullahs will call in the military, and bring holy death down on the protesters. I don't think they care how many civilians die as long as they retain power for themselves.
 
Erod said:
The mullahs aren't about to watch happen in Iran what's happened in other countries. These poor Iranians are going to have to be willing to die by the thousands to overthrow Ahmedinejad and the Islamist state.

Then again, no one knows what happens in these situations better than Iranians. They watched their revolution get hijacked once by Islamists in the 70s. Can they manage to do it again?

Again, Ahmedinejad is willing to kill a million people if he has to.
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We need to get some weapons in to them, so they can have a fighting chance.
 
They may sack a few officials to hopefully placate the populace, but that's probably the maximum gesture.
 
Tashah said:
They may sack a few officials to hopefully placate the populace, but that's probably the maximum gesture.
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That would probably be a mistake on their part. I think history shows that a dictatorship faced with a popular uprising has two options: 1) Make a small concession to the population, which demonstrates weakness and encourages further demands, or 2) Dig in your heels and shoot/beat/arrest them. The regimes that have survived uprisings have almost without exception gone with Option #2.

Egypt went with Option #1. Iran went with #2 last time around, but it appears that there may be less support in the IRGC for doing it again. I think we have to remember that Iran's regime is not monolithic, and the government depends on the Revolutionary Guard and the Basiji to do what is necessary to suppress rebellion. If they won't do it, then I'm not sure that it matters how intransigent Khameini wants to be.
 
Kandahar said:
I don't really see how the specific IRGC commanders who made this promise would gain any PR, or why they would need it in the first place...It makes more sense to take them at their word and assume that they truly don't want to fire on the protesters.

From the regime's perspective, this development should be terrifying. If people believe that they can protest without consequence, they are more likely to do so and the regime is likely to fall.
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In case the opposition does overthrow Armadinjihad, they'll have a defense at their trial.
 
Kandahar said:
The only thing that keeps dictatorships in power in the face of popular revolt is the military's willingness to crush the rebellion. It sounds like the Revolutionary Guard may have just lost its nerve, having reportedly pledged not to fire on peaceful protesters. Could this be the death knell of the Islamic Republic?
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I'm thinking that Iran's Revolutionary Guard knows how to count. When you are faced with over whelming numbers it's time choose the side that is not only voicing legitimate concerns but the side that is most likely to be fair in the end.

If the ruling Cult in Iran falls I can see a future for Iran and possibly a more moderate Nation emerge from it.

This would be a blow to the Cult Islam world wide and show that the people want a better treatment of the people with less subjugation of women and more.
 
Not that this regime would have gone down in history as a good one, but by firing on peaceful protesters in their sleep, this regime has solidified it's place as one of the most evil ever. I am not interested in any of their promises anymore. The US and UN should cut off any relations with that regime.
 
Mr. Invisible said:
While this is a good sign, I wouldn't say that it is "the death knell" of Iran. People in power will do whatever they have to to keep the status quo. If the Iranian Guard won't shoot protesters, then they'll find someone who will.
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That's not the way the military works. What happens when you refuse to follow orders is more pressure gets applied on down the chain of command and people get prosecuted until the rest follow orders. In the case of Iran individual sanctions are much worse.
 
whysoserious said:
Not that this regime would have gone down in history as a good one, but by firing on peaceful protesters in their sleep, this regime has solidified it's place as one of the most evil ever. I am not interested in any of their promises anymore. The US and UN should cut off any relations with that regime.
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The U.S. has no relations with Iran.
 
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