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Muslim Brotherhood Will Not Put Up a Presidential Candidate

Catz Part Deux

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From the BBC's ongoing live coverage of events in Egypt:

BBC News - Egypt's new era

16:35 p.m.: The Muslim Brotherhood say they will not put up a presidential candidate at the next election. "The Muslim Brotherhood... are not seeking personal gains, so they announce they will not run for the presidency and will not seek to get a majority in the parliament and that they consider themselves servants of these decent people," the Brotherhood said, according to the Reuters news agency. The BBC's Yolande Knell, in Cairo, says this is a restatement of their previous position. The Brotherhood are very wary of how they are seen in the West, our correspondent adds.
 
I am not surprised. The Muslim Brotherhood understands the realities of Egyptian society and knows that despite its organizational capabilities that it lacks the prospects to win the Egyptian Presidency, much less gain a Parliamentary majority in any representative government. First, Egypt's secular nationalism is too great to permit a theocratic-type or fundamentalist religious government. Second, Egypt's military, which plays a strong role behind the scenes, would not tolerate such an outcome. It remains to be seen whether the Muslim Brotherhood will even be permitted a voice during the transitional period that is being led by Egypt's military.

Consequently, the Muslim Brotherhood's near-term strategy is aimed at gaining a chance to participate in a future government.
 
Oh, well, since they said it...I'm sold!
 
Oh, well, since they said it...I'm sold!

The Muslim Brotherhood can always change its position. However, as Egypt is nowhere similar to Iran, it is highly unlikely that the Muslim Brotherhood would be able to win the Presidency, much less gain a Parliamentary majority. In Iran, the base of secular nationalism was extremely shallow and superficial. In Egypt, it is broad and deep.
 
The Muslim Brotherhood can always change its position. However, as Egypt is nowhere similar to Iran, it is highly unlikely that the Muslim Brotherhood would be able to win the Presidency, much less gain a Parliamentary majority. In Iran, the base of secular nationalism was extremely shallow and superficial. In Egypt, it is broad and deep.

The MB was founded in 1928. Since then, they have been shooting to create an Islamist government in Egypt. Now, they have their big chance, they're just going to sit on the side lines?

Sorry, bro, I'm just not buyin' it.

You keep working on the naive assumption that the MB is going to play by the rules.
 
You keep working on the naive assumption that the MB is going to play by the rules.

I made no suggestion of this. I only said that the Muslim Brotherhood will not win the Presidency/Parliamentary majority should it compete in any elections 6-18 months from now. Moreover, the temporary military-led government might not even permit it a voice during the transitional period. Finally, Egypt is not Iran. Had Iran's population had a broad-based commitment to secular nationalism, the Iranian Revolution could never have turned out as it did. In Egypt, both the large commitment to secular nationalism and also the strong role played by the military preclude an Iran-style revolution anytime soon. That does not mean that Egypt is assured to evolve into a liberal democracy. It only means that it is unlikely that Egypt will be transformed into a revolutionary Islamic state anytime soon.
 
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I made no suggestion of this. I only said that the Muslim Brotherhood will not win the Presidency/Parliamentary majority should it compete in any elections 6-18 months from now. Moreover, the temporary military-led government might not even permit it a voice during the transitional period. Finally, Egypt is not Iran. Had Iran's population had a broad-based commitment to secular nationalism, the Iranian Revolution could never have turned out as it did. In Egypt, both the large commitment to secular nationalism and also the strong role played by the military preclude an Iran-style revolution anytime soon. That does not mean that Egypt is assured to evolve into a liberal democracy. It only means that it is unlikely that Egypt will be transformed into a revolutionary Islamic state anytime soon.


That sounds remarkably like you're assuming that they're going to play by the rules.
 
That sounds remarkably like you're assuming that they're going to play by the rules.

I'm not ruling out that they might resort to violence. They have in the past. However, IMO, the military would crush any attempted coup on their part. Although I suspect that their long-term aspirations remain unchanged, I also suspect that they realize that in the near-term, they need to scale back their aspirations.
 
I'm not ruling out that they might resort to violence.

They don't have to resort to violence to play outside the rules.


They have in the past. However, IMO, the military would crush any attempted coup on their part. Although I suspect that their long-term aspirations remain unchanged, I also suspect that they realize that in the near-term, they need to scale back their aspirations.

Unless the army is in on it with them. Then what?

I'm sorry, but I think that alotta folks are taking a very naive/ignorant view towards this situation.
 
Unless the army is in on it with them. Then what?

I'm sorry, but I think that alotta folks are taking a very naive/ignorant view towards this situation.

There's no credible evidence that the Muslim Brotherhood has penetrated the army to any great extent. The near-term will not witness Egypt's becoming a part of an "Islamic caliphate" as some pundits have suggested.
 
There's no credible evidence that the Muslim Brotherhood has penetrated the army to any great extent. The near-term will not witness Egypt's becoming a part of an "Islamic caliphate" as some pundits have suggested.

In your opinion, of course. Yes? ;)
 
Thankfully this string is about Egypt and not the UK.
 
If you look at Jordan and Algeria, the Muslim brotherhood does not dominate parliament, but they are large enough to form coalitions and influence policy. Egypt has been run by secular nationalists ever since the British left and a theocracy wouldn't gain traction. The MB knows it has the best chance of holding onto power through democratic means. They have no chance against the military and are well aware of that fact.
 
If you look at Jordan and Algeria, the Muslim brotherhood does not dominate parliament, but they are large enough to form coalitions and influence policy. Egypt has been run by secular nationalists ever since the British left and a theocracy wouldn't gain traction. The MB knows it has the best chance of holding onto power through democratic means. They have no chance against the military and are well aware of that fact.
Which is why our support of Mubarak wasn't that bad, despite recrimination from the Left.
It's given Egypt 30 years of a more secular rule to develop a non-Islamist culture- and avoid an Iran, or Saddam, or Sudan, or Ghadafi.

Those bashing the USA for supporting Mubarak- please note local Arab tendencies and that their culture wasn't one of democracy- but Kings/Emirs etc.
Becoming countries in name only but really Tribes with flags.

Now in the 'age of information' they Are perhaps more ready for democracy and are in position for a more secular/sane one thanks to ... us.
 
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In your opinion, of course. Yes? ;)

Not just my opinion. The pundits arguing that post-Mubarak Egypt is going to become a radical Islamic state have named no generals or any other military leader for that sake who are beholden or tied to the Muslim Brotherhood. They have ignored polling data that shows that the Muslim Brotherhood actually commands little support within Egypt. They have ignored other polls showing that even as Egyptians support a greater role for Islam, they worry about Islamic extremism. In stark contrast, even before the Iranian Revolution had been completed, there were news reports of the emergence of "a mass movement of Shiite Islamic revivalism." Egypt does not face such circumstances.

Moreover, their thesis has already taken a substantial blow when Egypt's transitional military-led government announced that Egypt would honor all of its treaty obligations, including the Egypt-Israel peace treaty.
 
That sounds remarkably like you're assuming that they're going to play by the rules.

What rules could they break? They don't have enough popular support to enact a coup, they don't have anyone in a position of power due to being suppressed for the last 30 years, and Egypt's army is powerful enough that they couldn't get any outside help for a coup if they tried.

Exactly what do you think they could do?
 
Which is why our support of Mubarak wasn't that bad...

I agree on that point. As I noted in the resignation thread, I believe that President Mubarak's legacy will be mixed. He was a political leader who was deeply committed to stability.Toward that end, he preserved the Egypt-Israel peace agreement his predecessor negotiated and signed. He patiently rebuilt relationships that numerous Arab states had severed following Egypt's signing the peace treaty. He played an energetic and continuing role in trying to facilitate regional peace, all in pursuit of a more stable region. During his tenure, Egypt largely escaped the tide of religious fundamentalism that swept some parts of the Middle East and North Africa. All of those are positive achievements for which the former President deserves credit. His downfall was his inability to address the gap between the economic and social needs of Egypt's population and what his government delivered that widened rapidly. All in all, he was a generally reliable ally.
 
I am not surprised. The Muslim Brotherhood understands the realities of Egyptian society and knows that despite its organizational capabilities that it lacks the prospects to win the Egyptian Presidency, much less gain a Parliamentary majority in any representative government. First, Egypt's secular nationalism is too great to permit a theocratic-type or fundamentalist religious government. Second, Egypt's military, which plays a strong role behind the scenes, would not tolerate such an outcome. It remains to be seen whether the Muslim Brotherhood will even be permitted a voice during the transitional period that is being led by Egypt's military.

Consequently, the Muslim Brotherhood's near-term strategy is aimed at gaining a chance to participate in a future government.

"Brotherhood members have met with ElBaradei in recent weeks — as have representatives of Egypt's other opposition parties — as the former International Atomic Energy Agency chief begins to rally politicians, activists and intellectuals of varying political stripes to press for democratic changes to Egypt's constitution. His expanding coalition is so far composed of individuals rather than parties, but its energizing impact on the Egyptian political scene is unprecedented. And its potential to go further than any of its predecessors is demonstrated by the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood — which declined to join ranks with the last pro-democracy effort, Kifaya (Enough) in 2005 — says it's ready to jump on ElBaradei's bandwagon. The Brotherhood's secretary general, Mahmoud Hussein, declared publicly last week that his group would join ElBaradei's coalition as a party — if he'll have them."

Egypt: ElBaradei Talks to Muslim Brotherhood Opposition - TIME


A Time article from last April. Not running their own Muslim Brotherhood candidate seems like a smart political move. Most indications are that elBaradei is the current favorite. Running a political candidate against him would have the natural result of losing his support. Much wiser (politically) to have an association/alignment with him (elBaradei) at this point and get themselves well established.

.
 
I agree on that point. As I noted in the resignation thread, I believe that President Mubarak's legacy will be mixed. He was a political leader who was deeply committed to stability.

He could have been much worse. He wasn't the recently mentioned wonderful-but-unelected Lee Kuan Yew (Singapore).
But he wasn't Saddam or even close. Not close even to his contemporary Hafez Assad of Syria either.
If he was he could have put down/savaged this revolt as did the Iranian SOBs or with an action such as Assad's in Hama. (1982)

He Toward that end, he preserved the Egypt-Israel peace agreement his predecessor negotiated and signed. He patiently rebuilt relationships that numerous Arab states had severed following Egypt's signing the peace treaty. He played an energetic and continuing role in trying to facilitate regional peace, all in pursuit of a more stable region. During his tenure, Egypt largely escaped the tide of religious fundamentalism that swept some parts of the Middle East and North Africa. All of those are positive achievements for which the former President deserves credit. His downfall was his inability to address the gap between the economic and social needs of Egypt's population and what his government delivered that widened rapidly. All in all, he was a generally reliable ally.
Thats it. He was basically moderate and constructive.
Think how many lives could have been lost in a tumultuous Egypt many governments of different radical views.

Egypt also won the Cold War for the USA in the Middle East. Switching from the USA to USSR camp and making peace with Israel. Tho that under his similar, and similarly USA supported predecessor, Sadat.

How many lives have been saved by a moderate 30 year Egypt- vs -those lost by someone who was a pretty minor league as tyrants go.
 
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He could have been much worse. He wasn't the recently mentioned wonderful Lee Kuan Yew (Singapore).
But he wasn't Saddam or even close. Not close even to his contemporary Hafez Assad of Syria either.
If he was he could have put down/savaged this revolt as did the Iranian SOBs or with an action such as Assad's in Hama. (1982)

Thats it. He was basically moderate and constructive.
Think how many lives could have been lost in a tumultuous Egypt many governments of different radical views.

Egypt also won the Cold War for the USA in the Middle East. Switching from the USA to USSR camp and making peace with Israel. Tho that under his similar, and similarly USA supported predecessor, Sadat.

How many lives have been saved by a moderate 30 year Egypt- vs -those lost by someone who was a pretty minor league as tyrants go.


There is little doubt that Mubarak acted as an ally of the US for the past 30 years, however, the communist, Islamist backed soft revolt has put an end to that. We are at the begining of a new era, and I feel not a good one for the west in the long run.


j-mac
 
There is little doubt that Mubarak acted as an ally of the US for the past 30 years, however, the communist, Islamist backed soft revolt has put an end to that. We are at the begining of a new era, and I feel not a good one for the west in the long run.
I'm more worried about the short, than long run.
Democracy plays in the West's favor in general. I know.. very general.

The revolt was backed also by young facebookers and intellectuals.
If they use the iphones.. we win.
Tho the backbone of any revolt, including this one.. is hoards of impoverished.
More than half of Cairenes are utterly poor ghetto dwellers who would have turned out for any revolt and who won't be helped by democracy. They need Birth Control/One-child policy.

I heard one of the revolt leaders thanking facebook and... no less, it's head. Zuckerberg!
As well as Western Media like CNN which to some degree protected them with the cameras.

Though the biggest party/faction by far now will be 'The hood' with about 1/3 of the electorate.
I see a string they won't field a Prez candidate, but they will be easily the biggest faction in parliament- probably doubling the previous election's 1/6th.
A very Large voting bloc in a country of other unorganized 10% parties.
 
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I'm more worried about the short, than long run.
Democracy plays in the West's favor in general. I know.. very general.


In many cases in the past to say "democracy" associated with a formerly non democratic state would be a good thing, however today that term has been largely hijacked by the far left in the latest round of their subversion of language.

The revolt was backed also by young facebookers and intellectuals.
If they use the iphones.. we win.
Tho the backbone of any revolt, including this one.. is hoards of impoverished.
More than half of Cairenes are utterly poor ghetto dwellers who would have turned out for any revolt and who won't be helped by democracy. They need Birth Control/One-child policy.

I don't think restricting the freedoms of anyone is to the benefit of Egyptians that revolted, or anyone who attempts to do such today.

I heard one of the revolt leaders thanking facebook and... no less, it's head. Zuckerberg!
As well as Western Media like CNN which to some degree protected them with the cameras.

You left out those on the American far left that turned out to aid the MB, and foment, and further this situation. They include Code Pink, the CPUSA, and Soros backed groups. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if STORM was there also.

Though the biggest party/faction by far now will be 'The hood' with about 1/3 of the electorate.
I see a string they won't field a Prez candidate, but they will be easily the biggest faction in parliament- probably doubling the previous election's 1/6th.
A very Large voting bloc in a country of other unorganized 10% parties.


Don't forget the lessons of Iran. We all thought that a democracy was breaking out there as well, until the Ayatollah's took over.

j-mac
 
In many cases in the past to say "democracy" associated with a formerly non democratic state would be a good thing, however today that term has been largely hijacked by the far left in the latest round of their subversion of language.
Certainly Egypt hasn't had en election yet.
But if there's 'hijacking' it'll probably be by the Army- which isn't 'left'. It may even be USA influenced.
After all, Mubarak didn't "step down", he was pushed by the army after not stepping.


You left out those on the American far left that turned out to aid the MB, and foment, and further this situation. They include Code Pink, the CPUSA, and Soros backed groups. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if STORM was there also.
I'm not a fan of those groups.
But this is guilt by association.
Most Americans supported the revolt. I think I saw 85%. That's bigger than 'pink'.
Altho Many, including me and others here, see possible problems.



Don't forget the lessons of Iran. We all thought that a democracy was breaking out there as well, until the Ayatollah's took over.
I don't think we'll see an Iran.
There's no Khomeini-in-exile here.
ElBaradei is an anti-american Jerk, but probably too old for the revolt crowd.
 
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