Egypt's Mubarak to step down

From MSNBC:

NBC News said a high-ranking source inside the president's office said that Mubarak would step down and the newly appointed vice president, Omar Suleiman, would take over. This was then confirmed by a second source.

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NBC News: Egypt's Mubarak to step down - World news - Mideast/N. Africa - msnbc.com

Whether such a move occurs and, if it does, whether the protesters will accept the arrangement remains to be seen. There is a risk that at least some share of protesters will view VP Suleiman as part of the regime that they aimed to topple. That he has, at least so far, not been overly aggressive in terms of reforms and the timeframe might also raise concerns among some of the protesters.

donsutherland1 said:

From MSNBC:



NBC News: Egypt's Mubarak to step down - World news - Mideast/N. Africa - msnbc.com

Whether such a move occurs and, if it does, whether the protesters will accept the arrangement remains to be seen. There is a risk that at least some share of protesters will view VP Suleiman as part of the regime that they aimed to topple. That he has, at least so far, not been overly aggressive in terms of reforms and the timeframe might also raise concerns among some of the protesters.

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This will only be good so long as the next leader of Egypt is not a supporter of terrorism or is anti-Israeli.

donsutherland1 said:

From MSNBC:



NBC News: Egypt's Mubarak to step down - World news - Mideast/N. Africa - msnbc.com

Whether such a move occurs and, if it does, whether the protesters will accept the arrangement remains to be seen. There is a risk that at least some share of protesters will view VP Suleiman as part of the regime that they aimed to topple. That he has, at least so far, not been overly aggressive in terms of reforms and the timeframe might also raise concerns among some of the protesters.

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This is great news, I almost posted this myself.
NBC: Mubarak to step down tonight, veep to take over -

Apparently, things might not be quite as clear as MNSBC reported. According to a reuters breaking news story, Egypt's information minister suggested that President Mubarak is not stepping down. If, in fact, that latter account is accurate, then it is possible that President Mubarak may cede decision making authority while seeking to retain the title of President for symbolic purposes through the duration of his term. It is unlikely that such an arrangement would satisfy the protesters. IMO, he either has to try to retain power through the duration of his term (deeply unsatisfactory to the protesters) or cede it (possibly satisfactory, though the protesters might not be satisfied with VP Suleiman's heading the government). A middle course would only muddy things and be viewed by the protesters as an attempt to retain power through deception. That middle course could actually prove to be the worst course of all if the protestors believe it is a deceptive one, as any trust in Egypt's officials/institutions could be shattered.

donsutherland1 said:

Apparently, things might not be quite as clear as MNSBC reported. According to a reuters breaking news story, Egypt's information minister suggested that President Mubarak is not stepping down. If, in fact, that latter account is accurate, then it is possible that President Mubarak may cede decision making authority while seeking to retain the title of President for symbolic purposes through the duration of his term. It is unlikely that such an arrangement would satisfy the protesters. IMO, he either has to try to retain power through the duration of his term (deeply unsatisfactory to the protesters) or cede it (possibly satisfactory, though the protesters might not be satisfied with VP Suleiman's heading the government). A middle course would only muddy things and be viewed by the protesters as an attempt to retain power through deception. That middle course could actually prove to be the worst course of all if the protestors believe it is a deceptive one, as any trust in Egypt's officials/institutions could be shattered.

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They have existing trust in Egypt's officials/institutions to be shattered?

I am pretty sure that getting Mubarak removed is only step 1 of a 2 step plan for the protesters. Step 2 is to reform the government. All parties should have seats at that table.

digsbe said:

This will only be good so long as the next leader of Egypt is not a supporter of terrorism or is anti-Israeli.

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Which is a long shot.

apdst said:

Which is a long shot.

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Do you have a suggestion?

Deuce said:

Do you have a suggestion?

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Sure don't. It's just going to turn into a masssive goat **** and there's not much we can do to prevent it.

Another account of developments from The Jerusalem Post:

The military's supreme council was meeting Thursday, without the commander in chief Mubarak, and announced on state TV its "support of the legitimate demands of the people." A spokesman read a statement that the council was in permanent session to explore "what measures and arrangements could be made to safeguard the nation, its achievements and the ambitions of its great people."

The statement was labeled "communique number 1," a phrasing that suggests a military coup.

Notably absent was Vice President Suleiman.

Right now, little is certain in terms of exact details except that some kind of transition is now underway in Egypt. Whether the transition is voluntary for President Mubarak remains to be certain. Perhaps that is what the Information Minister was hinting at. If, in fact, the Army is moving the transition, it is entirely possible that someone other than VP Suleiman might, in fact, temporarily hold power. Nonetheless, uncertain as details might be, the transition is not likely to see the Egypt-Israel peace treaty overturned or Egypt's major international relationships dramatically altered.

reefedjib said:

They have existing trust in Egypt's officials/institutions to be shattered?

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The military is still trusted. Indeed, the military's cautious approach has likely paid dividends for the military's credibility among the protesters.

donsutherland1 said:

The military is still trusted. Indeed, the military's cautious approach has likely paid dividends for the military's credibility among the protesters.

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Until the goats are seperated from the sheep and the party that ends up on top of the **** heap uses the military to crush any opposition.

donsutherland1 said:

Another account of developments from The Jerusalem Post:

The military's supreme council was meeting Thursday, without the commander in chief Mubarak, and announced on state TV its "support of the legitimate demands of the people." A spokesman read a statement that the council was in permanent session to explore "what measures and arrangements could be made to safeguard the nation, its achievements and the ambitions of its great people."

The statement was labeled "communique number 1," a phrasing that suggests a military coup.

Notably absent was Vice President Suleiman.

Right now, little is certain in terms of exact details except that some kind of transition is now underway in Egypt. Whether the transition is voluntary for President Mubarak remains to be certain. Perhaps that is what the Information Minister was hinting at. If, in fact, the Army is moving the transition, it is entirely possible that someone other than VP Suleiman might, in fact, temporarily hold power. Nonetheless, uncertain as details might be, the transition is not likely to see the Egypt-Israel peace treaty overturned or Egypt's major international relationships dramatically altered.

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In exchange for his recent position, and perhaps now step-down, Mubarak I'm sure wants some kind of amnesty from "Suleiman's govt".
ie, he won't be arrested for crimes of murder, torture, suppression, corruption, theft, etc.
Without such, 'stepping down' is suicide for Mubarak.

But is there really any protection for what he's probably trying to broker. A national and International pardon for bowing out.
Besides 'crimes against humanity' there's tens of Billions of dollars.

donsutherland1 said:

The military is still trusted. Indeed, the military's cautious approach has likely paid dividends for the military's credibility among the protesters.

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Yes, that's true, even though Mubarak and Suleiman come from the military. I have been impressed. The military's actions have been commendable for the most part, aside from standing by while pro-Mubarak supporters attacked the protesters. I was just listening to comments on Al-Jazeera English and some Egyptian was saying that businessmen have accumulated wealth at the expense of the people. I had heard several days ago that the military has very broad and deep business interests, that they will not want to give up.

mbig said:

In exchange for his recent position, and perhaps now step-down, Mubarak I'm sure wants some kind of amnesty from "Suleiman's govt".
ie, he won't be arrested for crimes of murder, torture, suppression, corruption, theft, etc.
Without such, 'stepping down' is suicide for Mubarak.

But is there really any protection for what he's probably trying to broker. A national and International pardon for bowing out.
Besides 'crimes against humanity' there's Tens of Billions of dollars.

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My guess is that if VP Suleiman takes over, President Mubarak would have a chance to live the rest of his life in dignity without fear of prosecution. A military takeover might also afford the same prospect, though there might be some elements who would disagree.

International prosecution is not likely. I highly doubt that Egypt would accept or accommodate international intervention into what it would see as a wholly internal affair. Indeed, attempts at international intervention could worsen things.

donsutherland1 said:

My guess is that if VP Suleiman takes over, President Mubarak would have a chance to live the rest of his life in dignity without fear of prosecution. A military takeover might also afford the same prospect, though there might be some elements who would disagree.

International prosecution is not likely. I highly doubt that Egypt would accept or accommodate international intervention into what it would see as a wholly internal affair. Indeed, attempts at international intervention could worsen things.

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I think a deal with Suleiman was implicit in the appointment.
But 'some elements' may be a good size majority. And they will at least want Their money back.
And after ie, a September election someone is going to be under alot of pressure to do something.

Even if Mubarak was to make a public speech saying he is stepping down 'for Egypt and doesn't want recrimination', there's going to be significant demands.. if not for the ultimate hanging.

mbig said:

In exchange for his recent position, and perhaps now step-down, Mubarak I'm sure wants some kind of amnesty from "Suleiman's govt".
ie, he won't be arrested for crimes of murder, torture, suppression, corruption, theft, etc.
Without such, 'stepping down' is suicide for Mubarak.

But is there really any protection for what he's probably trying to broker. A national and International pardon for bowing out.
Besides 'crimes against humanity' there's tens of Billions of dollars.

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That, or he cut an exile deal with a western country.

I doubt Suleiman will be accepted by the protestors, given his history as with the secret police, torture and other aspects of his past

A transitorial government led by the military untill elections (real ones) were held I think would be acceptable to the protestors, but not one led by Suleiman

As for Mubarak, I expect he will step down from official duties to seek medical attention in a western country due to ill health. But retain the title of President until the elections are held

apdst said:

That, or he cut an exile deal with a western country.

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Maybe.
Perhaps the usual or London or Paris.
Secondarily Switzerland or the USA, where most of 'his' invesments probably are.
Someone is still going to make a case for all that money though.

EDIT: but Mubarak has said he won't leave/will die in Egypt.

mbig said:

Maybe.
Perhaps the usual or London or Paris.
Secondarily Switzerland or the USA, where most of 'his' invesments probably are.
Someone is still going to make a case for all that money though.

EDIT: but Mubarak has said he won't leave/will die in Egypt.

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I agree and they'll probably get some of it, but there's no way they're going to be allowed to leave Mubarack penniless.

Interesting analysis here.

"On February 6, 2011, Egypt's hastily appointed vice president, Omar Suleiman, invited in the old guard - or what we could call the Businessman's Wing of the Muslim Brotherhood into a stately meeting in the polished rosewood cabinet chamber of Mubarak’s presidential palace. The aim of their tea party was to discuss some kind of accord that would end the national uprising and restore "normalcy". When news of the meeting broke, expressions of delight and terror tore through the blogosphere. Was the nightmare scenario of both the political left and right about to be realised? Would the US/Israel surrogate Suleiman merge his military-police apparatus with the power of the more conservative branch of the old Islamist social movement? Hearing the news, Iran’s supreme leader sent his congratulations. And in the US, Glenn Beck and John McCain ranted with glee about world wars and the inevitable rise of the cosmic caliphate.

On that same day, an unnamed White House official told the Associated Press that any "academic type" who did not focus on the Muslim Brotherhood and see them as the principle actor in this drama "was full of sh*t". The White House seemed to believe that Suleiman, chief of Egypt’s intelligence services, was the kind of keen mind they could depend on. Suleiman’s brand of "intelligence" was on display in his interview on February 3, in which he traced the cause of Egypt’s uprising to a conspiracy coordinated by a united front of Israel with Hamas, al-Qaeda with Anderson Cooper. Is it true that Suleiman also has a dossier revealing the sinister role played in all this by "Simpsons" character C Montgomery Burns? ..."

Why Egypt's progressives win - Opinion - Al Jazeera English

What happened to Libi in Egypt, while in the custody of the Egyptian intelligence service, is documented in detail in a bipartisan report released in 2006 by the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. According to the report, Libi later told the C.I.A. that the Egyptian authorities grew dissatisfied with his level of cooperation, so they locked him in a tiny cage for eighty hours. Then they took him out, knocked him over, and punched him for fifteen minutes. The Egyptian officials were pressing Libi, who knew Bin Laden personally, to confirm the Bush Administration’s contention that there were links between Al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein. In particular, the Egyptians wanted Libi to confirm that the Iraqis were in the process of giving Al Qaeda biological and chemical weapons. In pushing this line of inquiry, the Egyptians appear to have been acting in accordance with the wishes of the U.S., which wanted to document its case for going to war against Iraq. Under duress, Libi eventually gave in. Details from his confession went into the pivotal speech that then-Secretary of State Colin Powell gave to the United Nations in Feburary of 2003, making the case for war.

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This man was totured until he agreed to say that Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda were in bed together and that Hussein was giving them WMDs. Suleiman, as the point man in this torture to obtain the false intel which helped propel us into the Iraq War, is the CIA's dream of heading up Egypt, because they can control him. He is a Neocon and Neoliberal wet dream. However, if we help to install him as the head of Egypt, we do two things.

1) We are circumventing the will of the people of Egypt, the vast majority which vehemently oppose him.

2) We are also setting ourselves up for another episode of "blowback", sometime in the future, when we will become so hated that the radical Islamic fundies will end up controlling the country. Don't forget how our overthrow of a democratically elected president in Iran, and the installation of the Shah, eventually led to exactly this same type of scenario.

mbig said:

I think a deal with Suleiman was implicit in the appointment.
But 'some elements' may be a good size majority. And they will at least want Their money back.
And after ie, a September election someone is going to be under alot of pressure to do something.

Even if Mubarak was to make a public speech saying he is stepping down 'for Egypt and doesn't want recrimination', there's going to be significant demands.. if not for the ultimate hanging.

Click to expand...

While demands to 'punish' President Mubarak might be articulated by some members of Egypt's public and perhaps members of future governments, I doubt that the government would pursue any such endeavors. Moreover, it remains to be seen how much of the estimated $2-$3 billion that President Mubarak might have accumulated during his tenure in power will be pursued, much less taken back. Estimates that his wealth is magnitudes of order larger than that are probably speculative. In the end, I doubt that the transitional government and, perhaps more importantly, the military would allow things to evolve to the point where the campaign for political change would mutate into little more than a pursuit of vengeance against the former President.

donsutherland1 said:

While demands to 'punish' President Mubarak might be articulated by some members of Egypt's public and perhaps members of future governments, I doubt that the government would pursue any such endeavors. Moreover, it remains to be seen how much of the estimated $2-$3 billion that President Mubarak might have accumulated during his tenure in power will be pursued, much less taken back. Estimates that his wealth is magnitudes of order larger than that are probably speculative. In the end, I doubt that the transitional government and, perhaps more importantly, the military would allow things to evolve to the point where the campaign for political change would mutate into little more than a pursuit of vengeance against the former President.

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If there's even a hint that he'll be prosecuted or punished in any way, he will flee the country.

Only those in Egypt can determine the ultimate fate of democratic ideals in that country. But democracy in Egypt may not be consistent with the short term and mid term interests of the American people. But democracy there might be consistent with the long term interests of the American people. In any event, democracy in Egypt is unlikely to look like Western democracies.