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AP: New population count may complicate Obama 2012 bid

Grim17

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It seems that many people are leaving blue states and relocating to red ones, which doesn't look good for the democrats... Gee, I wonder why this is happening? You think it has anything to do with the effects that democratic policies have on an economy, versus the effects that republican policies have?

Naaaaaa... That couldn't be it.

New population count may complicate Obama 2012 bid
By CHARLES BABINGTON, Associated Press
Sun Dec 19, 11:21 am ET

WASHINGTON – The 2010 census report coming out Tuesday will include a boatload of good political news for Republicans and grim data for Democrats hoping to re-elect President Barack Obama and rebound from last month's devastating elections.

The population continues to shift from Democratic-leaning Rust Belt states to Republican-leaning Sun Belt states, a trend the Census Bureau will detail in its once-a-decade report to the president. Political clout shifts, too, because the nation must reapportion the 435 House districts to make them roughly equal in population, based on the latest census figures.

The biggest gainer will be Texas, a GOP-dominated state expected to gain up to four new House seats, for a total of 36. The chief losers — New York and Ohio, each projected by nongovernment analysts to lose two seats — were carried by Obama in 2008 and are typical of states in the Northeast and Midwest that are declining in political influence.

Democrats' problems don't end there.

November's elections put Republicans in control of dozens of state legislatures and governorships, just as states prepare to redraw their congressional and legislative district maps. It's often a brutally partisan process, and Republicans' control in those states will enable them to create new districts to their liking.

New population count may complicate Obama 2012 bid - Yahoo! News
 
For me it was the weather, many red states do tend to be warmer (Florida is purplish though)
 
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It seems that many people are leaving blue states and relocating to red ones, which doesn't look good for the democrats... Gee, I wonder why this is happening? You think it has anything to do with the effects that democratic policies have on an economy, versus the effects that republican policies have?

Naaaaaa... That couldn't be it.



New population count may complicate Obama 2012 bid - Yahoo! News

Do you have any data at all to support that wild claim?
 
Do you have any data at all to support that wild claim?

I believe the upcoming census will serve well in that capasity... Then of course there's the statistic of which states are in the most financial trouble in America... But other than the actual economic numbers, and the fact that people are leaving blue states and relocating to red ones, I got nothing... lol
 
I believe the upcoming census will serve well in that capasity... Then of course there's the statistic of which states are in the most financial trouble in America... But other than the actual economic numbers, and the fact that people are leaving blue states and relocating to red ones, I got nothing... lol

So you have actually nothing that it is democratic policy. It couldn't have something to manufacturing states tend to be blue states, and those states are hit hardest by bad economic times?

This is a classic case of believing something and then assuming some cause and effect relationship outside of any evidence.
 
Another thing is the GOP won the majority in many state congress which means they draw new district lines.
 
It seems that many people are leaving blue states and relocating to red ones, which doesn't look good for the democrats... Gee, I wonder why this is happening? You think it has anything to do with the effects that democratic policies have on an economy, versus the effects that republican policies have?

Naaaaaa... That couldn't be it.

They will just move into republican controlled states and vote for democrats, forcing the same destructive policies on their new states. Then they'll wonder what happened and how the previously republican controlled states (now democrat controlled) got into such bad economic positions. Which will, of course, force them to move again and start the cycle all over again. They're kind of like a plague that way.
 
So you have actually nothing that it is democratic policy. It couldn't have something to manufacturing states tend to be blue states, and those states are hit hardest by bad economic times?

This is a classic case of believing something and then assuming some cause and effect relationship outside of any evidence.

And I suppose that the plight of inner cities and the fact they have not progressed for the poor and minorities, has nothing to do with the fact that nearly all of them have been controlled by democrats and their policies over the last 50 years... Right?

How about you take a look at the most business friendly states (you know, the job providing ones) and see how many are red, and how many are blue.

Then of course there's the tax burden. You know, which states people pay less taxes in, and which pay more. Here, I dug this up for you because I read it recently.

It is estimated by the Tax Foundation that the nation as a whole will pay on average 9.7% of its income in state and local taxes in 2008, down from 9.9% in 2007 primarily because income grew faster than tax collections between 2007 and 2008. This is the latest report the Tax Foundation has issued.

New Jersey residents paid 11.8%, topping the charts. New Yorkers were close behind, paying 11.7%, and Connecticut was third at 11.1%. The top 10 were rounded out by Maryland (10.8%), Hawaii (10.6%), California (10.5%), Ohio (10.4%). Vermont (10.3%), Wisconsin (10.2%) and Rhode Island (10.2%).

Alaskans pay the least, 6.4 percent in 2008, but Nevada is close at 6.6 percent. In four states the residents pay between 7 and 8 percent of their income in state and local taxes: Wyoming (7.0%), Florida (7.4%), New Hampshire (7.6%) and South Dakota (7.9%). Four other states round out the bottom 10: Tennessee (8.3%), Texas (8.4%), Louisiana (8.4%) and Arizona (8.5%).

Taxes by State

You can believe what you want... I choose to use the facts to base my beliefs on.
 
I think he'll be fine, demographic-wise. The far larger issues will be how well the economy is doing at the time and who he's running against.
 
I think he'll be fine, demographic-wise. The far larger issues will be how well the economy is doing at the time and who he's running against.

I think you're right. No matter how they redistrict, it will likely come down to those two factors. I think this will have more of an effect on elections in the future, when the country becomes stable again.
 
due to increased population the 2010 census awards new congressional districts and, therefore, new electoral votes to---AZ, GA, NV, SC, UT and WA

dark red TX and FL gain +4 and +2, respectively

dark blue NY loses 2, which is a 2 vote gain for my side

also, IL, MA, NJ, PN, IA and MI all lose a rep, all states which went for barry

Study: Red states may gain electoral votes, House seats – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs

when you shake it all out, it adds up to about a 16 vote pickup in the 2012 presidential for the reprobates, or about the magnitude of a michigan

now, as to why so many americans are leaving places like new york for more vital environs like texas...

The Top 10 Places in America Poised for Recovery - Newsweek
 
If you have luck you don't have to have good policies.
 
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New Census May Complicate Obama 2012 Bid

New Census May Complicate Obama 2012 Bid - FoxNews.com

The population continues to shift from Democratic-leaning Rust Belt states to Republican-leaning Sun Belt states, a trend the Census Bureau will detail in its once-a-decade report to the president. Political clout shifts, too, because the U.S. must reapportion the 435 House districts to make them roughly equal in population, based on the latest census figures.

The biggest gainer will be Texas, a Republican-dominated state expected to gain up to four new House seats, for a total of 36. The chief losers -- New York and Ohio, each projected by nongovernment analysts to lose two seats -- were carried by Obama in 2008 and are typical of states in the Northeast and Midwest that are declining in political influence.

Democrats' problems don't end there.

November's elections put Republicans in control of dozens of state legislatures and governorships, just as states prepare to redraw their congressional and legislative district maps. It's often a brutally partisan process, and Republicans' control in those states will enable them to create new districts to their liking.

The recession has led many conservatives, who have been complaining about the poltical forces in states like New York, California, Illinois, Ohio, etc, to finally do what they've been talking about for years...and leaving for a more like-minded existence elsewhere.

The census shows this is happening.

Many red states - Texas is a prime example - have barely felt the recession, other than those employed by companies that are predominantly based in the northeast. And as people leave heavily-unionized blue states in droves to relocate in the red flyover states, there is a political shift taking place.

California is virtually bankrupt. So is New York. The huge national and global influence of both states is eroding as fewer and fewer businesses choose to base their operations there, and hence, pay their taxes there. The politics of those states is turning more TMZ by the day.

As Republicans that actually reside in these deep blue states leave, what's left is a vaccuum of business leadership, which will "trickle down" to the folks. Look at Detroit as an example.
 
Re: New Census May Complicate Obama 2012 Bid

yes, and politically it's a big bonanza for the reprobates, 4 new house seats in texas, two in florida, one each in arizona, georgia, south carolina and utah, all reliably red

OUR state legislators control ALL those states, WE draw the district lines which will abide a decade, WE have the power locally to determine those districts such that reds are rewarded AND blues abashed

GERRYMANDERING is gigantically gratifying, the GRIST of american electioneering

on the flip side, dark blue new york LOSES two seats, ie, TWO votes that went for obama in the 2010 college won't anymore

also deprived of a delegate are illinois, iowa, massachusetts, michigan, jersey and the keystone state, all blue

when you shake it all out, it's a 16 or so point pickup for the neanderthals, the magnitude of a michigan

and in the house---

our advantages are not limited to this structural aggrandizement of 16 or so new reps

we can expect, in addition, a number of names to announce no renomination, creating plum OPENS for us to pick off

on tsunami tuesday, my side stole DAVID OBEY's open, JIM OBERSTAR's

brian baird's, brad ellsworth's, bart stupak's, joe sestak's, bart gordon's, john tanner's, marion berry's, vic snyder's, eric massa's, dennis moore's, alan mollohan's...

opens provide optimal opportunities

who's it gonna be in 12?

in the senate WE enjoy even greater leverage---some FOURTEEN or so dem incumbents in upper parliament face serious challenge, versus only ONE republican, scott brown, #41, from chappaquiddick

tester in blood red montana, conrad in sanguine dakota, ben nelson in knuckle dragging nebraska, bill nelson in florida (where my side took the senate by 20, the gub by 5, 4 house seats and filibuster-proof control of both houses in tallahassee), combat boots webb in virginia (who might not even run, republicans picked up 3 house seats, mcdonnell won by 18 last year, the delegation is 10/13 red, gerald connolly in fairfax, dc burbs, held his seat so narrowly a recount was required...), bob casey in keystone country (we took FIVE house seats, the gub, the senate, both state houses...), debbie stabenow in michigan (gub snyder won by 18, both state houses, two congressmen making the delegation 9/15 red), herb kohl in wisconsin (both state houses repainted red on nov 2, feingold finished, the gub by double digits, two house seats making 5 of 8 republican), sherrod brown in ohio (FIVE house seats, 13/18 red, governor kasich, senator portman, both legislatures...), claire mccaskill in missouri (blunt blew away rubberstamp robin, 20 term chair of armed services ike skelton was skedaddled by tea drinking vicky hartzler), jeff bingaman in new mexico (says he might not run, ms martinez took ablequerque by more than 10), joe manchin in west virginia (which is changing like arkansas, manchin won only after putting a bullet thru cap and trade, the popular former governor was NOT PRESENT during saturday's historic votes on dadt and dream...), amy klobuchar in minnesota, 80 year old difi out here on the left coast, menendez in jersey (where christie is tearing up trenton)...

we may also see some party switching---ben nelson and dadt hero joe lieberman are the names most prominently mentioned

in the kansan's case, stiffneck nelson will either become a republican or announce he's not running

15 state reps from georgia to maine have already announced their reorientation to red, including 2 african americans in atlanta

upshot---republicans enjoy tremendous structural and strategic electoral advantages looking forward---16 new electoral votes, the power to redistrict in almost every battleground, a fabulously fortuitous floorplan in the senate, and, perhaps most significant, the difficulty the party STILL in power is gonna have RECRUITING quality candidates with known drags nancy and harry at the head

PLUS the governorships in pennsylvania, ohio, michigan, wisconsin, new jersey, virginia, new mexico, nevada, indiana, iowa, florida...

i presume you appreciatre the powerful part gubs play in presidentials

party on, progressives, seeya at the polls

seeya in the congressional cloakroom, in the courts, in the capitols...
 
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Re: New Census May Complicate Obama 2012 Bid

Census shows slowing US growth, brings GOP gains - Yahoo! Finance

it's final, the census bureau has awarded texas 4 new house seats (and, therefore, 4 extra electorals for president), florida 2, and one each to AZ, GA, NV, SC, UT and WA

ohio and new york each lose two, while getting dinged a single district each are IL, IA, LA, MA, MI, MO, NJ and PA

if you adjust the 2008 electoral map using the above amended arithmetic, it amounts to a net pickup for the plebians of exactly SIXTEEN districts/ev's

michigan, as an example, owns today 16 ev's (down from 17 last time)

at the house level:

in the 18 states reapportioned by the census, republicans control BOTH houses AND gub in nine---TX, FL, AZ, GA, SC, UT, PA, OH, MI

we're talking about GERRYMANDERING, here, and who controls it

6 of the 18 states are mixed govt---NV, NY, IA, LA, MO, NJ

only 3 are all blue---WA, IL and MA

it is what it is

no spin, lynn

seeya at the polls, progs, in the congress, in the courts, in the capitols...
 
Re: New Census May Complicate Obama 2012 Bid

Actually according to this article, a huge part of the population change is fueled by hispanic population growth. While short term, this is good for Republicans since they have a greater number of legislatures, long term, the hispanic population is becoming increasingly democratic.

States Hispanics Call Home See Large Population Growth - Fox News Latino
 
Re: New Census May Complicate Obama 2012 Bid

Actually according to this article, a huge part of the population change is fueled by hispanic population growth. While short term, this is good for Republicans since they have a greater number of legislatures, long term, the hispanic population is becoming increasingly democratic.

States Hispanics Call Home See Large Population Growth - Fox News Latino

The Democrats have something to offer Latino Americans (and those Mexican citizens who are motor voters) that the Republicans don't. A full trough at which to feed at public expense.
 
Re: New Census May Complicate Obama 2012 Bid

Actually according to this article, a huge part of the population change is fueled by hispanic population growth. While short term, this is good for Republicans since they have a greater number of legislatures, long term, the hispanic population is becoming increasingly democratic.

States Hispanics Call Home See Large Population Growth - Fox News Latino

A... the libbies are gonna drum you out of the club for using a FOX source ;)

B... From your article...
States where Hispanics have settled in large numbers saw some of the highest percent changes in population growth and gained congressional seats, according to the first set of Census 2010 results, released Tuesday.
and
This first release of Census results did not include data on race or ethnicity -- reports with those details will be released early next year.

based on the second statement, the first is an assumption. So, your comment that 'a huge part of the population change is fueled by hispanic population growth' is an assumption... until the reports w/race or ethnicity data come out.
 
Moderator's Warning:
Merged threads
 
Re: New Census May Complicate Obama 2012 Bid

A... the libbies are gonna drum you out of the club for using a FOX source ;)

B... From your article...

and


based on the second statement, the first is an assumption. So, your comment that 'a huge part of the population change is fueled by hispanic population growth' is an assumption... until the reports w/race or ethnicity data come out.

The results are based on other studies and are not simply assumptions.

Also from the article

"The results from the U.S. Census confirm that the states with a heavy Hispanic population are the 'winners' in terms of the number of house seats gained," said Joe Kutchera, an expert on demographic trends and author of "Latino Link: Building Brands Online with Hispanic Communities and Content." "The growth in the U.S. is centered in the South and Southwest, regions that are heavily Hispanic."
 
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Re: New Census May Complicate Obama 2012 Bid

Actually according to this article, a huge part of the population change is fueled by hispanic population growth. While short term, this is good for Republicans since they have a greater number of legislatures, long term, the hispanic population is becoming increasingly democratic.

States Hispanics Call Home See Large Population Growth - Fox News Latino

Exactly. The Republicans are the one's who gain the most from illegal immigration and since Illegals were counted in this census... well lemme just say: Irony... it's awesome.
 
Re: New Census May Complicate Obama 2012 Bid

Also from the article

"The results from the U.S. Census confirm that the states with a heavy Hispanic population are the 'winners' in terms of the number of house seats gained," said Joe Kutchera, an expert on demographic trends and author of "Latino Link: Building Brands Online with Hispanic Communities and Content." "The growth in the U.S. is centered in the South and Southwest, regions that are heavily Hispanic."


The growth isn't in the US. The growth is in Aztlan, the Latino homeland.
 
Those who leave blue states are just going to be turning those red states into blue ones.
 
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