2010 Midterm Results Discussion

DemConWatch posted an overview of Pennsylvania redistricting this morning with a caveat to remember about the powerful Democratic congressman from Philadelphia: “Almost everything … is in flux except CD 1, Bob Brady's district. No one messes with Bob Brady.”

Brady aside, the Democratic delegation has reason to be nervous about a remapping process where Republicans boast complete control, with ownership of the governor’s mansion, majorities in both state legislative chambers and a majority on the state supreme court.

With the state set to lose one of its 19 seats, here are three coups Republicans would like to engineer, according to recent conversations with Pennsylvania GOP insiders.

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Senator Claire McCaskill's spokeswoman this evening confirmed that the Missouri Senator billed taxpayers for a purely political travel on a private plane co-owned by her family, a violation of Congressional ethics rules that deepens questions around her use of the plane.

POLITICO's John Bresnahan and Scott Wong reported yesterday that McCaskill billed taxpayers for almost $76,000 for official travel on the twin-engine Piper aircraft, which she co-owns with her husband and other investors.

McCaskill spokeswoman Maria Speiser conceded that the bill was inappropriate, and had no immediate explanation for how it had come to be submitted as an official expense.

The questions around McCaskill's flights are likely to be an issue in McCaskill's re-election campaign next year in a difficult state for Democrats, and they undercut her image as a transparent, crusading reformer -- who pushed for, among other things, a new post overseeing Senatorial expenses.

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Over the past couple of weeks, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) has railed against an increase in the debt limit, slammed his party on the budget and blasted President Barack Obama in a floor speech.

Manchin’s freelancing is part of what’s driving the Senate these days. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has given politically vulnerable Democrats license to do almost anything they need to survive a grim political environment, even if that means ripping the president, voting against Democratic bills and teaming up with Republicans to appear bipartisan. For Reid, it seems that, at this point in the election cycle, keeping his imperiled majority after 2012 is a far more important goal than preserving party unity on legislation.

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In the recruiting battle for 2012 Senate candidates, Republicans are winning by a landslide. Just three months into the election cycle, the GOP has locked down heavyweight candidates in seven key Senate races, with top contenders seriously thinking about running in two others. Democrats, on the other hand, are still without a major candidate in Massachusetts and Nevada — two states that present the best opportunities to pick up a seat

A senior Democratic operative with Senate campaign experience acknowledged that early candidate commitments on the Republican side are a product of the difficult landscape. Among the top GOP gets to date: Attorney General Jon Bruning in Nebraska, former state treasurer Sarah Steelman in Missouri, former Sen. George Allen in Virginia, Rep. Denny Rehberg in Montana, former Rep. Heather Wilson in New Mexico, Rep. Jeff Flake in Arizona and Rep. Dean Heller in Nevada.

In several states, the Republican field is already overflowing with candidates. In Florida, the largest of the battleground states, at least four serious candidates are waging a challenge against second-term Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. Five Republicans are already gunning for the Texas seat being left open by Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. By contrast, top Democratic prospects, like Rep. Michael Capuano in Massachusetts and Rep. Shelley Berkley in Nevada, have remained on the sidelines. Berkley says she’ll resolve the dilemma of giving up her safe Las Vegas-area House seat when her consultant shows her a “path to victory.”

In the three states where GOP senators have decided against another term — Texas, Arizona and Nevada — Republicans have secured candidates with proven vote-getting ability in statewide or federal races. Of the five states where Democrats are losing incumbents, only in Connecticut has a pair of formidable candidates announced bids. In North Dakota, New Mexico, Hawaii and Virginia, meanwhile, no Democratic candidate has formally stepped forward to run.

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The April jobs numbers offered tentative hope for President Obama’s reelection bid, but a potentially more telling indicator will come later this month -- the latest state-by-state unemployment data.

n several key 2012 battleground states, where economic progress will likely be critical to Obama's reelection hopes, the unemployment rate remains above the national average.

Unemployment in Florida, Nevada, Colorado and North Carolina is above the 9 percent mark, with Nevada claiming the highest unemployment rate in the nation at 13.2 percent.

Florida's rate is the nation's third highest, coming in at 11 percent. North Carolina's unemployment rate stands at 9.7 percent with Colorado at 9.2 percent.

Florida is considered a must win for Obama if he wants a second term, while North Carolina is among the states the president would like to keep in the purple column.

And there are several battleground states where the unemployment rate is near the national average.

In Ohio, for example, the unemployment rate is 8.7 percent.

A slew of new polls released this past week showed a bump for Obama’s approval rating, ranging between six and 10 percentage points, but his numbers on the economy remained in the tank. Even as Obama's overall approval jumped 11 points in the latest CBS/New York Times poll, the numbers on his handling of the economy hit an all-time low at 55 percent disapproval.

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This opens the way for one of the best match-ups of 2012, if it can be arranged: Russ Feingold (D) versus Paul Ryan (R) — a close, competitive, policy-oriented contest. The race might well be another one that will go the way of the presidential election in that state.

Democrats already had their hands full in the Senate. Now, it’s more true, by one seat. North Dakota is already gone, and Democratic seats in Montana, Nebraska, Missouri and Virginia are endangered (with lots of others being watched closely). Republicans must worry mainly about Massachusetts and Nevada, although others may come into the equation before fall 2012.

For Democrats, this is Trouble with a capital “T."

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By 2 to 1, Americans say the country is pretty seriously on the wrong track, and nine in 10 continue to rate the economy in negative terms. Nearly six in 10 say the economy has not started to recover, regardless of what official statistics may say, and most of those who say it has improved rate the recovery as weak.

Overall, about six in 10 of those surveyed give Obama negative marks on the economy and the deficit. Significantly, nearly half strongly disapprove of his performance in these two crucial areas. Nearly two-thirds of political independents disapprove of the president’s handling of the economy, including — for the first time — a slim majority who do so strongly.

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The redistricting committee is poised to dismantle an exquisitely gerrymandered map that has provided incumbents nearly unparalleled stability, with just one member of the delegation losing a seat since 2006. The committee has taken on a decidedly apolitical format by choosing not to take incumbent residency or political data into account. The group is composed largely of political neophytes, including a chiropractor, an architect and an insurance agent.

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The Prof said:

the first shoe to fall from CA's radical new redistictring process, approved by voters on nov 2, 69 to 31:

Lynn Woolsey to announce retirement - Dan Hirschhorn - POLITICO.com

ms woolsey, fyi, is leader of the house progressive caucus

she's from marin, northern foot of the golden gate opposite sf, regularly lampooned for its counterculture exclusivity

she's very close to nancy, when they lost in november smart money was either might well retire

instead, the palsied speakeress grasped for the gavel

ms woolsey's exit after 10 terms was expected for months, she openly floated the prospect in december

but her objection to this radical, "apolitical" redrawing of district lines, which sliced napa/sonoma out of her territory, was by far the loudest in CA, most of which has been mostly mute

she called the new lines drawn by the new redistricting panel, which is now independent of the assembly, "invasive surgery"

fyi

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