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Israel has '8 days' to hit Iran nuclear site: Bolton

And where exactly did I state thousands of civilian casualties were inflected?

You stated that, "many", Lebanese were killed, right here,

...many Lebanese killed in US bombing raids...

Care to provide proof of those, "many", Lebanese killed during US bombing sorties? Or, are you just going to go with your revisionist history and hatred for America? What's next? The Japanese were justified in bombing Pearl Harbor? US policies prompted the shelling of Fort Sumter?

You Europeans have been sold a bad bill of goods. Either ya'll know and are too proud to admit it, or you're all too stupid to realize what's going on.
 
My point is that while we in the U.S. can have the luxury of sitting back to see what happens, the margin for error in Israel is far smaller. Even if Iran had the theoretical capability of hitting the U.S. with one or two atomic bombs, the damage would be devastating but nowhere near existential. For Israel, one or two atomic bombs would all but mean anihilation. Hence, from that perspective, especially if one considers the Jewish historical narrative

If a bomb is dropped over Tel-Aviv, over New York or over Katmandu, the result will be the same: Iran will be annihilated. That's why they'll never do that, just like neither Stalin nor Mao nor the pro-Taliban pakistanis did that. And besides, nothing proves that Iran is planning to build a bomb, all they're doing is both legal and needed to conduct their own independent civilian program.

Mutual assured destruction - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


Israel is not going to have a high tolerance for waiting to see if Mr. Ahmadinejad's rhetoric is little more than bluster.

You're right except for the second part of the sentence:

It's becoming clear. The statements of the Iranian President have been reflected by the media in a manipulated way. Iran's President betokens the removal of the regimes, that are in power in Israel and in the USA, to be possible aim for the future. This is correct. But he never demands the elimination or annihilation of Israel. He reveals that changes are potential. The Shah-Regime being supported by the USA in its own country has been vanquished. The eastern governance of the Soviet Union collapsed. Saddam Hussein's dominion drew to a close. Referring to this he voices his aspiration that changes will also be feasible in Israel respectively in Palestine. He adduces Ayatollah Khomeini referring to the Shah-Regime who in this context said that the regime (meaning the Shah-Regime) should be removed.

Certainly, Ahmadinejad translates this quotation about a change of regime into the occupied Palestine. This has to be legitimate. To long for modified political conditions in a country is a world-wide day-to-day business by all means. But to commute a demand for removal of a 'regime' into a demand for removal of a state is serious deception and dangerous demagogy.

Does Iran's President Want Israel Wiped Of The Map - Does He Deny Te Holocaust?

He talked about a "potential regime change"...so what? Is that a reason to nuke them? Isn't that what the USA have been doing for decades ("spreading democracy"?!?!?) with the difference that the USA actually send B-52's to "spread democracy"!!!

I find it incredible that, taking a single mistranslated sentence, our medias make nearly everyone believe that there is a good reason to bomb Iran. All of them reported the mistranslated sentence, how many did reveal that it was a mistranslation?

If we bomb Iran, the codename of the operation won't be Iraq2.0, it will be Operation Gleiwitz.

A nuclear-armed Iran's capabalities would be magnitudes of order greater than they are now.

The only difference is that we won't be able to threaten it or to invade its neighbouring countries to "spread democracy".
 
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Basically, what you posts attempted to do, is justify an attack, that killed 3,000 American civilians, using half-assed facts and revised history.

No I am repeating what people in the middle east are saying and what their leaders are using as justification often. It is no different than the reasons put forward to justify Israel's actions.. only difference is you dont accept the Arab reason's but blindly accept the Israeli.
 
You stated that, "many", Lebanese were killed, right here,

Care to provide proof of those, "many", Lebanese killed during US bombing sorties?

Proof that you would believe? Of course not, no one can. But when you throw 300 shells from a battleship in over land, then you are bound to kill innocent civilians. Considering the only accounts come from Syrian and Lebanese sources of the period, I doubt you would accept them at all so why bother. It is part of record that the US fired shells into Lebanon and carried out sorties in Lebanon.

Or, are you just going to go with your revisionist history and hatred for America? What's next? The Japanese were justified in bombing Pearl Harbor? US policies prompted the shelling of Fort Sumter?

Revisionist? Come on.. do you deny the US flew sorties in Lebanon and fired 300 rounds from the New Jersey? These are FACTS.. you even had 2 planes shot down for god sake.

You Europeans have been sold a bad bill of goods. Either ya'll know and are too proud to admit it, or you're all too stupid to realize what's going on.

Well if you mean we get both sides of the story .. then sure.
 
Bub,

FWIW, I believe a deterrence regime can be constructed around the mutual assured destruction concept. If Iran understood that there would be an automatic, guaranteed and devastating nuclear response all across Iran were any nuclear device used or attempted to be used in the Middle East against Israel and/or vital international interests/military forces, I believe the risk of such an outcome could be deterred (as would the risk of Iran's proliferating such technologies given the broad criteria used to trigger the guaranteed retaliation).

But whether the states who have most at stake would feel secure even under such a framework would be another issue. If not, then they could well seek to try to deny Iran a nuclear capability even through military means. No state is going to gamble with its vital interests if it feels that they are at risk.

Finally, as I've noted in numerous messages in the past, I still believe the preferable outcome is a diplomatic resolution. If such a resolution requires truly coercive sanctions, those should be designed. Diplomacy is preferable to the other options, non-military and military. But time is not unlimited.
 
Bub,

FWIW, I believe a deterrence regime can be constructed around the mutual assured destruction concept. If Iran understood that there would be an automatic, guaranteed and devastating nuclear response all across Iran were any nuclear device used or attempted to be used in the Middle East against Israel and/or vital international interests/military forces, I believe the risk of such an outcome could be deterred (as would the risk of Iran's proliferating such technologies given the broad criteria used to trigger the guaranteed retaliation).

But whether the states who have most at stake would feel secure even under such a framework would be another issue. If not, then they could well seek to try to deny Iran a nuclear capability even through military means. No state is going to gamble with its vital interests if it feels that they are at risk.

I don't see the difference between Iran in 2010 and Soviet Russia in during the 40's, I don't see why Israel should feel "insecure". And even in the extremely improbable case of attempt to usa the bomb, then there are very modern antiballistic missiles. If that has worked during 50 years against a country that had dozens of thousands of modern ballistic missiles, it should work against a country that's not likely to have the capability to build atomic bombs before several years (and it's gonna take several more years to make such bombs fit inside primitive ballistic missiles)

That's not a rational fear.
 
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My point is that while we in the U.S. can have the luxury of sitting back to see what happens, the margin for error in Israel is far smaller. Even if Iran had the theoretical capability of hitting the U.S. with one or two atomic bombs, the damage would be devastating but nowhere near existential. For Israel, one or two atomic bombs would all but mean anihilation. Hence, from that perspective, especially if one considers the Jewish historical narrative, Israel is not going to have a high tolerance for waiting to see if Mr. Ahmadinejad's rhetoric is little more than bluster.



A nuclear-armed Iran's capabalities would be magnitudes of order greater than they are now.

With respect to Iraq, I agree that the Bush Administration's decision dramatically impacted the balance of power and removed an important constraint on Iran. Unfortunately, at the time, the fundamentally flawed Krauthammer thesis of a unipolar world in which the balance of power had become obsolete held sway in the U.S. government.



That's why I believe time is of the essence. Crippling sanctions need to be agreed and the necessary quid pro quo provided even if it means, for example, U.S. willingness to help China meet its energy needs if Iranian oil is taken off the global market. It also means developing a credible alternative for deterring Iran in the case the Iran gains a nuclear arms capability sufficient to ease the fears of Iran's neighbors and Israel.



As noted previously, I favor pursuing those other issues on their own merit. I'm just not convinced of the linkage. Since the 1970s, international policy makers in the U.S. and Europe have overestimated the linkages. The breakthrough that led to Egyptian-Israeli peace was supposed to create a dramatically new dynamic. The rollback of Saddam Hussein's forces for Kuwait was supposed to create a new environment. Jordan-Israel peace was supposed to open the door to Israeli-Palestinian peace. Concrete results fell far short of the almost euphoric expectations.



I agree that ultimately Iran will need to be part of an agreement if regionwide peace is to be achieved. Achieving such an outcome won't be easy with a revolutionary government that is far from sold on maintaining the current Middle East order (Arab-Israeli/Sunni-Shia dimensions, among others).

In regard to Krauthammer, he got his talking points from the paper "Rebuilding America's Defenses", by Dick Cheney, which was the paper that launched the Project for the New American Century.
 
In regard to Krauthammer, he got his talking points from the paper "Rebuilding America's Defenses", by Dick Cheney, which was the paper that launched the Project for the New American Century.

Actually, the PNAC document embraced the assumption of Krauthammer's thesis of a unipolar world. Krauthammer first proposed that thesis in 1990. The PNAC document helped shape the Bush Administration's foreign policy, especially after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
 
Bub,

FWIW, I believe a deterrence regime can be constructed around the mutual assured destruction concept. If Iran understood that there would be an automatic, guaranteed and devastating nuclear response all across Iran were any nuclear device used or attempted to be used in the Middle East against Israel and/or vital international interests/military forces, I believe the risk of such an outcome could be deterred (as would the risk of Iran's proliferating such technologies given the broad criteria used to trigger the guaranteed retaliation).

Because of political correctness we don’t have the will to stop Iran now when it is easy to stop them, what makes you believe we will have the will to respond to a nuclear attack against Israel or another Middle East state by annihilating an entire nation? Not to mention that anyone who believes that mutual assured destruction will somehow work to deter the ruling Mullahs of Iran who love death more than they love life isn’t paying attention and is more than a little naive. Indeed, it is just those same kinds of people that have been pulling out their hair for decades trying to force Israel to make peace with the so-called Palestinians that are advocating such nonsense, not only will that never happen, but hell will freeze before that ever happens.

Indeed, if Israel fails to attack Iran by this weekend and I lived in Israel, I would be looking to get the hell out ASAP. Anyone who stays living in Israel after this weekend has a death wish, as for as I’m concerned. Gee…once a nuclear-armed Iran starts saber rattling I wonder what kind of impact that will have on Israel’s tourist industry. I also wonder what kind of impact that will have on world oil prices.

Indeed, after Iran gets nukes it won’t even have to attack Israel, it can just saber rattle or use its proxies to attack Israel, and there will be a mass exodus of Jews from Israel. Not to mention that the price of oil on world markets will also skyrocket. It will be able to do the same thing to increase its hegemony not only in the Middle East but also throughout the Islamic world.

Hence, Pakistan will quickly become the nuclear supermarket for the Sunni Islamic world, as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Libya, and some of the Gulf States will all quickly become nuclear armed in order to defend themselves from the Shi’a menace. In other words, thermonuclear world war will become an inevitability. Indeed, it’s only a matter of time.

Not to mention that even if Iran was annihilated in response to a nuclear attack against Israel, the ummah still wins because Israel gets wiped off the map but the ummah survives.

But whether the states who have most at stake would feel secure even under such a framework would be another issue

Any state that would agree to such nonsense would be a fool if they believe such a scheme would work.

Finally, as I've noted in numerous messages in the past, I still believe the preferable outcome is a diplomatic resolution.

You and Obama need to learn that diplomacy with Islamofascist terrorist thugs doesn’t work, especially when neither one of you understands Islam. Even if Obama could secure some sort of last minute Hudna to stop the Iranian Mullahs, they would just go underground with their nuclear weapons program like the S. Koreans did. There is only one thing that will stop the Iranians from getting nuclear weapons and that is the eradication of the Iranian regime. Anything else is a pipe dream.
 
Because of political correctness we don’t have the will to stop Iran now when it is easy to stop them, what makes you believe we will have the will to respond to a nuclear attack against Israel or another Middle East state by annihilating an entire nation? Not to mention that anyone who believes that mutual assured destruction will somehow work to deter the ruling Mullahs of Iran who love death more than they love life isn’t paying attention and is more than a little naive. Indeed, it is just those same kinds of people that have been pulling out their hair for decades trying to force Israel to make peace with the so-called Palestinians that are advocating such nonsense, not only will that never happen, but hell will freeze before that ever happens.

Indeed, if Israel fails to attack Iran by this weekend and I lived in Israel, I would be looking to get the hell out ASAP. Anyone who stays living in Israel after this weekend has a death wish, as for as I’m concerned. Gee…once a nuclear-armed Iran starts saber rattling I wonder what kind of impact that will have on Israel’s tourist industry. I also wonder what kind of impact that will have on world oil prices.

Indeed, after Iran gets nukes it won’t even have to attack Israel, it can just saber rattle or use its proxies to attack Israel, and there will be a mass exodus of Jews from Israel. Not to mention that the price of oil on world markets will also skyrocket. It will be able to do the same thing to increase its hegemony not only in the Middle East but also throughout the Islamic world.

Hence, Pakistan will quickly become the nuclear supermarket for the Sunni Islamic world, as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Libya, and some of the Gulf States will all quickly become nuclear armed in order to defend themselves from the Shi’a menace. In other words, thermonuclear world war will become an inevitability. Indeed, it’s only a matter of time.

Not to mention that even if Iran was annihilated in response to a nuclear attack against Israel, the ummah still wins because Israel gets wiped off the map but the ummah survives.



Any state that would agree to such nonsense would be a fool if they believe such a scheme would work.



You and Obama need to learn that diplomacy with Islamofascist terrorist thugs doesn’t work, especially when neither one of you understands Islam. Even if Obama could secure some sort of last minute Hudna to stop the Iranian Mullahs, they would just go underground with their nuclear weapons program like the S. Koreans did. There is only one thing that will stop the Iranians from getting nuclear weapons and that is the eradication of the Iranian regime. Anything else is a pipe dream.

I never could understand why, even as hate speech, some people could come up with the word "Islamofascist". Islam is a religion, and married to the state, that government would be known as a theocracy. Facism is control of the state by business. The 2 concepts are mutually exclusive.
 
I never could understand why, even as hate speech, some people could come up with the word "Islamofascist". Islam is a religion, and married to the state, that government would be known as a theocracy. Facism is control of the state by business. The 2 concepts are mutually exclusive.

Islam is not only a religion it is also a very radical form of totalitarianism that seeks world domination as its main goal as Sharia institutionalizes systematic persecution and often violent oppression of females and non-Muslims and incorporates draconian punishments such as lashings, stonings, beheadings, and amputations, while forbidding the freedom of conscience, the freedom of speech, and the freedom of religion, at the same time it also mandates death to apostates. In addition, Sharia commands all Muslims to wage offensive jihad for the spread of Islam via the imposition of Sharia, and this mandate to wage jihad for the spread of Islam, by the way, is the sixth pillar of Islam. Hence, in reality Islam is a totalitarian theo-political ideology that seeks to subjugate the world via the imposition of Sharia, or a theo-Islamofascist enterprise if you will.

Don’t believe me? Take a look inside the Islamic world and see what you see. Do you see freedom and liberty like you see inside the Western world? No, you see only totalitarianism everywhere you look, because of Sharia.
 
Because of political correctness we don’t have the will to stop Iran now when it is easy to stop them, what makes you believe we will have the will to respond to a nuclear attack against Israel or another Middle East state by annihilating an entire nation? Not to mention that anyone who believes that mutual assured destruction will somehow work to deter the ruling Mullahs of Iran who love death more than they love life isn’t paying attention and is more than a little naive. Indeed, it is just those same kinds of people that have been pulling out their hair for decades trying to force Israel to make peace with the so-called Palestinians that are advocating such nonsense, not only will that never happen, but hell will freeze before that ever happens.

There is no certainty as to whether MAD would work. It's one of a number of options that will need to be examined as a contingency approach. The risks, costs, and benefits of all the alternatives will need to be weighted.

Indeed, if Israel fails to attack Iran by this weekend and I lived in Israel, I would be looking to get the hell out ASAP. Anyone who stays living in Israel after this weekend has a death wish, as for as I’m concerned. Gee…once a nuclear-armed Iran starts saber rattling I wonder what kind of impact that will have on Israel’s tourist industry. I also wonder what kind of impact that will have on world oil prices.

Iran is widely estimated to be 1-3 years away from developing a nuclear weapons capability. If one adopts the shortest timeframe, then the crucial decision as to what to do would need to be taken at the end of this year or early next year. There is no intelligence report anywhere that suggests that Iran is 2-3 days away from gaining a nuclear weapons capability.

Not to mention that even if Iran was annihilated in response to a nuclear attack against Israel, the ummah still wins because Israel gets wiped off the map but the ummah survives.

That's a risk Israel will be assessing very carefully. Israel may well conclude that a military operation to try to thwart Iran's gaining nuclear weapons could be necessary. If Israel makes that choice, I suspect it will be late this year/early next year given the aforementioned timeframe I mentioned earlier. Israel has the most at stake and it will act to safeguard its vital interests.

You and Obama need to learn that diplomacy with Islamofascist terrorist thugs doesn’t work, especially when neither one of you understands Islam. Even if Obama could secure some sort of last minute Hudna to stop the Iranian Mullahs, they would just go underground with their nuclear weapons program like the S. Koreans did. There is only one thing that will stop the Iranians from getting nuclear weapons and that is the eradication of the Iranian regime. Anything else is a pipe dream.

A desirable solution is not necessary an attainable one. If you read all my posts on the matter, you would see that I have grave doubts that the current diplomatic efforts will succeed. You would see that I argue truly crippling sanctions that deny the Iranian regime the ability to export oil or have access to refined petroleum products holds a prospect if increasing the prospects of diplomatic success. Even then, a satisfactory outcome is not assured.

Hence, it would be prudent to use the next 6-9 months to engage in meticulous planning for alternative approaches, gathering intelligence to identify all of Iran's uranium enrichment facilities, etc. Any military operation would need to be planned very carefully. A rushed endeavor with the kind of strategic planning flaws that led to real problems in Iraq and Afghanistan would almost certainly lead to a disastrous outcome (failure to achieve the intended goals and failure to substantially mitigate the adverse impact of retaliation by Iran and its proxies against U.S. forces, assets, and allies).
 
There is no certainty as to whether MAD would work. It's one of a number of options that will need to be examined as a contingency approach. The risks, costs, and benefits of all the alternatives will need to be weighted.

I have already personally weighed it a long time ago and have concluded that only a naïve fool could be gullible enough to believe that it would work, but I’m convinced that’s Obama’s fallback position, since he also proposed diplomacy again after European diplomatic talks did nothing but buy Iran more valuable time.

Iran is widely estimated to be 1-3 years away from developing a nuclear weapons capability. If one adopts the shortest timeframe, then the crucial decision as to what to do would need to be taken at the end of this year or early next year. There is no intelligence report anywhere that suggests that Iran is 2-3 days away from gaining a nuclear weapons capability.

Per former Ambassador Bolton, once Bushehr becomes operational, it will generate enough plutonium on an annual basis to build many nuclear bombs, thus giving Iran a second route to nuclear weapons. Plus if Israel hits Bushehr after it becomes operational, it could lead to nuclear fallout throughout the region.

That's a risk Israel will be assessing very carefully.

If Israel hasn’t already assessed that risk already years ago, then it is already too late.

A desirable solution is not necessary an attainable one. If you read all my posts on the matter, you would see that I have grave doubts that the current diplomatic efforts will succeed. You would see that I argue truly crippling sanctions that deny the Iranian regime the ability to export oil or have access to refined petroleum products holds a prospect if increasing the prospects of diplomatic success. Even then, a satisfactory outcome is not assured.

Not only is diplomacy with Islamofascist terrorist thugs a guaranteed failure, but sanctions are a guaranteed failure as well. Nevertheless, if you want to pretend like you are doing everything in your power you possibly can to protect the country and the America people, then even though it doesn’t have a prayer in hell of working, it will work to deceive enough people into believing you did everything you possibly could to stop Iran except the only thing that would work, of course.

Hence, it would be prudent to use the next 6-9 months to engage in meticulous planning for alternative approaches, gathering intelligence to identify all of Iran's uranium enrichment facilities, etc. Any military operation would need to be planned very carefully. A rushed endeavor with the kind of strategic planning flaws that led to real problems in Iraq and Afghanistan would almost certainly lead to a disastrous outcome (failure to achieve the intended goals and failure to substantially mitigate the adverse impact of retaliation by Iran and its proxies against U.S. forces, assets, and allies).

If we haven’t planned for any and all contingencies yet as Defense Secretary Gates suggested, then lord help us. With respect to the fiascos in Afghanistan and Iraq, they were inevitable as it stems from an institutional failure to acknowledge who the real enemy is. To understand your enemy, you must first be able to identify your enemy. If I were the czar, I would fire the entire State Department and start from scratch. The State Department is the biggest liability in the federal government.
 
...talks did nothing but buy Iran more valuable time.

One can't make that assessment unless talks have failed and then Iran attains a nuclear weapons capability. Talks have floundered, but Iran does not have such a capability. There is still reasonable time to forego such an outcome.

Per former Ambassador Bolton, once Bushehr becomes operational, it will generate enough plutonium on an annual basis to build many nuclear bombs, thus giving Iran a second route to nuclear weapons. Plus if Israel hits Bushehr after it becomes operational, it could lead to nuclear fallout throughout the region.

Annual basis, not within two or three days. Russia's plan comes with precautions. All nuclear fuel rods would be returned to Russia (the model that will likely be adapted under an international agreement, should such an agreement be reached; as such the plant's operation could provide a good laboratory for testing the design of the international approach). Russia and the IAEA would be in a position to determine whether Iran had tampered with the rods in a bid to extract plutonium and could cut off future fuel deliveries. Western experts were satisfied with the safeguards.

The biggest risk associated with Iran's nuclear activities comes from its uranium enrichment facilities (declared and secret), not the Bushehr plant. Greater scrutiny will need to be focused there.

If Israel hasn’t already assessed that risk already years ago, then it is already too late.

Israel is continually making and updating plans. It is also cognizant of risks. It will not act in a hasty fashion tied to artificial timelines that have little relevance to Iran's capabilities.

Not only is diplomacy with Islamofascist terrorist thugs a guaranteed failure, but sanctions are a guaranteed failure as well.

Given that U.S. forces are currently withdrawing from Iraq (something that wasn't happening a few years ago) and are tied down in Afghanistan coupled with Iran's still being 1-3 years from attaining a nuclear weapons capability, the U.S. is understandably not eager to make military action a first resort. There's time to pursue alternatives.

If I were the czar, I would fire the entire State Department and start from scratch. The State Department is the biggest liability in the federal government.

The State Department didn't make the war plans for Iraq or Afghanistan. The State Department did contribute its views with respect to political frameworks. But it wasn't the only player making such contributions.
 
If a bomb is dropped over Tel-Aviv, over New York or over Katmandu, the result will be the same: Iran will be annihilated. That's why they'll never do that,

Wow…we don’t have the will to stop the Iranians today when it is easy to do so now. What makes you believe we are going to have the will to annihilate the whole nation of Iran after it becomes nuclear armed and far more dangerous, and what about all the nuclear fallout that will not just be contained in Iran? And what about Iran's allies Russia and China, they are just going to sit by and let their ally be annihilated?

In any event, if Iran open’s Pandora’s box, Pakistan will quickly become a nuclear supermarket and nuclear weapons will become its biggest export as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Libya, and some of the Gulf States will all rush to become nuclear armed to protect themselves from the Shi’a menace. I can’t say I blame them.

Thus, if Iran stays true to its modus operandi and maintains plausible deniability via giving nukes to a terrorist organization to destroy Israel, how are you going to know which country it came from. All of them are the enemies of Israel. Are you going to nuke the entire Middle East?

Nevertheless, Iran won’t even have to use a nuclear bomb to destroy Israel. All it will have to do is saber rattle, and there will be a mass exodus of Jews from Israel. Not to mention that every time it rattles it sabers, world oil prices will shoot through the roof.

I’d much rather deal with possible short term sky high oil prices instead of with a nuclear armed Iran that will be able to raise the tension in the Middle East and oil prices anytime it wants.

Of course, eradicating the ruling Mullahs and destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons program isn’t a very pleasant proposition. However, a nuclear-armed Iran is a far worse proposition.
 
Of course, eradicating the ruling Mullahs and destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons program isn’t a very pleasant proposition. However, a nuclear-armed Iran is a far worse proposition.

No it isn't. What a completely ****ing insane thing to say...
 
If Israel does choose to bomb Iran I sure hope they have really good intelligence, as it's a given Iran's installations will probably not be where they are thought to be. Considering how much time Iran has had there will probably be a fair share of deception and very fortified. Furthermore the alledged targets are sure to be in population centers to create a lot of collateral damage reinforcing Israel's bad image among Islam.
 
It's right there:

iran_relief_map.jpg
 
What makes you believe we are going to have the will to annihilate the whole nation of Iran after it becomes nuclear armed and far more dangerous, and what about all the nuclear fallout that will not just be contained in Iran? And what about Iran's allies Russia and China, they are just going to sit by and let their ally be annihilated?

1) I hope we never have the will to annihilate the entire nation. It's not like they all have the same opinion of "Death to America/Israel". There are a lot of moderates in Iran. I remember a skit the Daily Show did where they went to Iran and asked their opinions on America and for the most part they got the answer "Oh, you're a cool nation, we have no issue with you". The ruling class, who are old and steeped in tradition, are the ones who are against the West. The younger Iranians are fine with Americans and Israel. It would be a shame if they were to be killed because of this.

2) Russia and China would probably side with us rather than Iran. When you look at who you would rather have as an allie, a comparison between America and Iran kind of makes you come to the conclusion that America makes a better allie then an enemy, and Iran may have the benefit of a good oil supply, but we have the benifit of an awesome military.
 
There is no certainty as to whether MAD would work.

THere is no mutual assured destruction at all because of the way the Iranians view the situation. hHey do not view it as Iran vs Israel, but rather, as the Muslim Ummah against the Jews. Rafsanjani even spelled it out for the world nearly a decade ago that they seek nuclear capability in order to destroy Israel, and even if Israel retaliates against Iran, the Ummah will still flourish.

I can still recall an argument I had with one of my political science professors 35 years ago in regards to Kissinger. I could never seem to get him to understand my point of view that the basic flaw in Kissinger's doctrine was that it presupposed a level of rationality that not all people possess -- especially in regards to our western views towards what we perceive to be rational self-interest. MAD only works when both parties share the same cultural values and when they are both acting with rational self-interest. As Rafsanjani has shown, it breaks down when the cultures involved are so different as to preclude the sorts of tacit understandings upon which Kissinger's work is built.
 
One can't make that assessment unless talks have failed and then Iran attains a nuclear weapons capability. Talks have floundered, but Iran does not have such a capability. There is still reasonable time to forego such an outcome.

Please. You sound like all those clueless people that will conclude after Iran gets nukes that at least BHO did all he could to stop Iran.

Annual basis, not within two or three days.

Within a very short time, not to mention that Iran already has enough enriched Uranium to build a few nuclear bombs.

the model that will likely be adapted under an international agreement, should such an agreement be reached; as such the plant's operation could provide a good laboratory for testing the design of the international approach.

Of course, under the auspices of the UN no less, and never-mind the fact that for all intents and purposes the UN has been hijacked by the OIC. Thus, any international agreement administered by the IAEA would inevitably become a bad joke. Not to mention that you want to use Iran of all places as a laboratory, with Russia no less who pokes its finger in America’s eye just for fun every chance it gets. Yeah right. I may be gullible, but buddy I’m not that gullible.

The biggest risk associated with Iran's nuclear activities comes from its uranium enrichment facilities (declared and secret), not the Bushehr plant. Greater scrutiny will need to be focused there.

BHO should be hounded out of office for allowing this travesty to occur, and he did it at the same time that our troops pulling out of Iraq are in Kuwait and in harms way, because he wanted to deter Israel from acting. This just did not happen in a vacuum, it was very well planned. I will give him that much credit.

Israel is continually making and updating plans. It is also cognizant of risks. It will not act in a hasty fashion tied to artificial timelines that have little relevance to Iran's capabilities.

In actuality, Israel has to be ready to take action within a few minutes notice.

The State Department didn't make the war plans for Iraq or Afghanistan. The State Department did contribute its views with respect to political frameworks. But it wasn't the only player making such contributions.

Actually, if Bush had listen to the Defense Department instead of the State Department, we would never have occupied Afghanistan and Iraq. In Afghanistan the mission would have been limited to the eradication of OBL and AQ in retaliation for 9/11, and in Iraq, as soon as the country had been scoured for WMD and Saddam captured, Chalabi would have been installed as President and we would have left Iraq.

Anyway, occupying two Islamic countries for the purpose we occupied them was destined to fail from the very get go because both occupations were based on false assumptions. Not only that, but the State Department was so incompetent that they let Zalmay Khalilzad, a Muslim, penetrate them and get himself appointed as Ambassador to Afghanistan, and then subsequently to Iraq, and, of course, because of his direct involvement, both the Afghanistan and Iraq constitutions today have clauses in them that make Sharia the supreme law of each country. Hence, for all intents and purposes both states today are Sharia states that will inevitably rejoin the global jihad against the West much stronger and faster than otherwise thanks to US blood, sweat, and tears, as both operations couldn’t have been more counterproductive.
 
1) There are a lot of moderates in Iran


What you mean? There are no moderates in the world much less moderates in Iran. There may be a lot of Iranians that aren’t true believers, but then again nobody really knows that for sure. Nevertheless, the notion of moderate Muslims and radical Muslims is a political correct construct that besides being very racist is little more than a myth once you understand what Islam really is. By the way, can you define what a moderate Muslim is and what a radical Muslim is?

I remember a skit the Daily Show did where they went to Iran and asked their opinions on America and for the most part they got the answer "Oh, you're a cool nation, we have no issue with you".

Really? How many people did they ask, three?

The ruling class, who are old and steeped in tradition, are the ones who are against the West. The younger Iranians are fine with Americans and Israel.

Actually, the overwhelming majority of Muslims in Iran quietly agree with Ahmadinejad when he vilifies the Jews in Israel as evil incarnate, however, they wish he would do it in private because they believe it is detrimental to the country. Hence, they may disagree with Ahmadinejad with it comes to Israel, but it is a disagreement on tactics but not on substance.


It would be a shame if they were to be killed because of this.

What do you think MAD leads to, but that’s what the very naïve are proposing nonetheless. Which doesn't have a prayer in hell in working, by the way.

Russia and China would probably side with us rather than Iran.

You mean sort of like they are doing today with respect to Iran? Yeah right.
 
THere is no mutual assured destruction at all because of the way the Iranians view the situation. hHey do not view it as Iran vs Israel, but rather, as the Muslim Ummah against the Jews. Rafsanjani even spelled it out for the world nearly a decade ago that they seek nuclear capability in order to destroy Israel, and even if Israel retaliates against Iran, the Ummah will still flourish.

I can still recall an argument I had with one of my political science professors 35 years ago in regards to Kissinger. I could never seem to get him to understand my point of view that the basic flaw in Kissinger's doctrine was that it presupposed a level of rationality that not all people possess -- especially in regards to our western views towards what we perceive to be rational self-interest. MAD only works when both parties share the same cultural values and when they are both acting with rational self-interest. As Rafsanjani has shown, it breaks down when the cultures involved are so different as to preclude the sorts of tacit understandings upon which Kissinger's work is built.

Not only that but people assuming MAD will work with respect to Iran are applying their own Western sensibilities to Muslims and Muslims don’t even remotely see the world the same way those people do. Good post!
 
Please. You sound like all those clueless people that will conclude after Iran gets nukes that at least BHO did all he could to stop Iran.

Concrete steps, not rhetoric, will determine whether or not President Obama did all he could. If, for example, Iran attains such weapons and the U.S. had not even made an effort to seek truly crippling sanctions, then I won't be able to conclude that he did everything he could to prevent the outcome. Of course, there are other measures, too, but that's just one example.

Of course, under the auspices of the UN no less, and never-mind the fact that for all intents and purposes the UN has been hijacked by the OIC. Thus, any international agreement administered by the IAEA would inevitably become a bad joke. Not to mention that you want to use Iran of all places as a laboratory, with Russia no less who pokes its finger in America’s eye just for fun every chance it gets. Yeah right. I may be gullible, but buddy I’m not that gullible.

IMO, the U.S. will need to play a leading role in any verification regime. Leaving the effort to the UN will not be effective. Lebanon's evolution following UNSC Res. 1701 offers one example. The stakes are too high to leave verification to the UN.

In actuality, Israel has to be ready to take action within a few minutes notice.

My guess is that Israel's risk assessment is not materially different from my own thinking: a near-term decision (probably within a year or less) will likely be needed, but an imminent one (matter of days) is not. After the passage of this weekend, I believe it will be clear that Israel did not share Mr. Bolton's dire assessment.

Moreover, if Israel needs to, it can and will strike the Bushehr plant in the future if the plant is viewed as contributing to an existential threat. It won't let artificial timelines and theoretical pontificating about the plant's being immune from attack get in the way of trying to assure its own survival.

Actually, if Bush had listen to the Defense Department instead of the State Department, we would never have occupied Afghanistan and Iraq.

I'm not aware of anyone in the Defense Department who testified before the Congress that the U.S. should respond in Afghanistan solely with air and/or missile strikes, albeit on a much larger scale than President Clinton's retaliation. I am well aware from testimony before the Congress and Senate that the Defense Department all but dismissed risks of insurgency in Iraq (had they reviewed that country's history--Sunni-Shia rivalry/tensions/animosities--and experience when power collapses in authoritarian states, the only conclusion was that the country faced an extremely high risk of insurgency). With respect to Afghanistan, the idea was that once the Taliban was swept from power the country could rapidly be transformed into a democracy (had they bothered to study the experiences of Imperial Russia, Britain, and the Soviet Union and also recognized that Afghanistan's history, culture, and structure made the rapid evolution of a liberal democracy remote at best and stable central government very unlikely in the near-term, the overly idealistic course that was adopted could have been avoided). In the end, democracy is not achieved and sustained via regime change. It depends on institutions, traditions, societal structure, etc.

And when it came to ground invasions, General Tommy Franks advanced a "go light strategy" under the radical--and ultimately, disproved hypothesis--that modern technology made large manpower commitments unnecessary. In doing so, he disregarded General Anthony Zinni's "Desert Crossing" simulation on Iraq which demonstrated the need for substantial manpower in Iraq and considered an insurgency one of the most likely scenarios. General Eric Shinseki's warning about the need for substantial manpower was swiftly dismissed and all but ridiculed.
 
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