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Jobless Claims Cast a Pall Over Job Market
- Thread starter Taylor
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The Prof
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finally, the fix (unfortunately not to be followed thru):
Conservatives try to block IMF bailout - Jake Sherman - POLITICO.com
Conservatives try to block IMF bailout - Jake Sherman - POLITICO.com
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jujuman13
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The USA is already there albeit not widespread.
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In terms of stocks, while it might be somewhat unpopular given some of the cheerleading of the market that had been occurring on such outlets as CNBC, there was a distinct possibility that the market had risen to overvalued levels. Hence, even if Europe were a non-story, a correction might well have developed and to the extent such a correction precludes the stock market from reaching levels not justified by fundamentals, that is not necessarily a bad thing in the overall context of financial market risk.
Speaking of historic valuations, as of today's close, the S&P 500 was trading at 19.44 times 10-year earnings. The historic mean is 16.36 times 10-year earnings and the historic median is 15.73 times 10-year earnings.
Clearly, there are some headwinds buffeting the economy e.g., the commercial real estate sector. Important risks remain. For example, the handoff from public stimulus to private demand could be tricky. U.S. domestic nonfinancial debt remains excessive (240.0% of GDP vs. 184.9% a decade ago). U.S. household debt, even as it has declined modestly since the start of the Great Recession remains very high (93.7% of GDP vs. 68.4% 10 years ago).
Potential external shocks remain possible. Europe's woes, if credible fiscal consolidation is not adopted and pursued in the highly-indebted states, could adversely impact the U.S. through the financial, trade, and exchange rate mechanisms. What happens in East Asia with respect to the possible China-Taiwan real estate bubble would have the potential to trigger an even larger shock, especially if China's capacity to purchase U.S. debt is undermined. Wildcards associated with Iran and North Korea also remain on the table.
Having said that, while I believe the weekly unemployment claims may continue to jump around, I suspect that monthly net employment figures will likely remain positive for the most part going forward, though another negative month is not entirely out of the realm of possibility.
Furthermore, as people return to the labor force at a rate that exceeds net employment growth, it is plausible that the unemployment rate could again rise above 10%. By fall, I suspect it will begin to fall, though it could remain at or above 9% through the rest of this year, even as real GDP expands around 3% for the year.
Speaking of historic valuations, as of today's close, the S&P 500 was trading at 19.44 times 10-year earnings. The historic mean is 16.36 times 10-year earnings and the historic median is 15.73 times 10-year earnings.
Clearly, there are some headwinds buffeting the economy e.g., the commercial real estate sector. Important risks remain. For example, the handoff from public stimulus to private demand could be tricky. U.S. domestic nonfinancial debt remains excessive (240.0% of GDP vs. 184.9% a decade ago). U.S. household debt, even as it has declined modestly since the start of the Great Recession remains very high (93.7% of GDP vs. 68.4% 10 years ago).
Potential external shocks remain possible. Europe's woes, if credible fiscal consolidation is not adopted and pursued in the highly-indebted states, could adversely impact the U.S. through the financial, trade, and exchange rate mechanisms. What happens in East Asia with respect to the possible China-Taiwan real estate bubble would have the potential to trigger an even larger shock, especially if China's capacity to purchase U.S. debt is undermined. Wildcards associated with Iran and North Korea also remain on the table.
Having said that, while I believe the weekly unemployment claims may continue to jump around, I suspect that monthly net employment figures will likely remain positive for the most part going forward, though another negative month is not entirely out of the realm of possibility.
Furthermore, as people return to the labor force at a rate that exceeds net employment growth, it is plausible that the unemployment rate could again rise above 10%. By fall, I suspect it will begin to fall, though it could remain at or above 9% through the rest of this year, even as real GDP expands around 3% for the year.
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Are you using government numbers to get that picture of falling unemployment? I assure you it isn't true. Unemployment has virtually remained the same since the beginning of this year.
Gallup Daily: U.S. Workforce