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U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

TurtleDude said:
We've been screwed ever since the New Deal started a malignant increase in government and the number of people who are dependent upon it

Bush's fault wasn't tax cuts. The Taxes in this country are way too high on the top 10% and way too low on the bottom 90%

its the spending where he was deficient and much of that spending can be tied to the destruction of the tenth amendment engineered by FDR
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That's a joke.
Had Greenspan and Bush not used the housing sector to get us out of the light recession of 2001 we would not be in this mess.

It has nothing to do with the New Deal which many believed was actually fiscally conservative.

Taxes too high? How about balancing the budget? Cutting taxes and then engaging in a costly and unnecessary war just leads to disaster and Here we are.
 
donsutherland1 said:
Elmendorf was talking about the nation's long-term fiscal outlook, a matter that is separate from the current cyclical recovery that is now underway.
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1. no kidding

2. except 2020 is not so far out

3. and you can't completely separate em, the worry, uncertainty and doubt clouding americans' perceptions of the out years affects their thinking, choices and actions today

The U.S. cannot grow its way out of its structural budget deficits. Discretionary spending reductions, mandatory spending reform (with fundamental health care reform that addresses the excessive cost growth issue), and some tax hikes will all be necessary if the U.S. is to address its fiscal challenges. The sooner a credible fiscal consolidation strategy is developed, the better. Once the recovery is sustained, the nation should begin to implement a fiscal consolidation strategy. 2011 might mark a feasible starting point (LOL!). By all reasonable measures, the absence of such a strategy within the next year should warrant the U.S. being given a negative outlook by the major ratings agencies.

Unfortunately, I expect ideologues to try to hinder progress even if their rigidity is largely about perpetuating a failing fiscal approach at the expense of future opportunities and generations. On one side, some political leaders will resist the possibility of meaningful spending reductions (discretionary and mandatory). On the other, some political leaders will resist the possibility of tax hikes. Yet, the magnitude of the fiscal challenges is such that there can be no sacred ideological cows. Tough choices will need to be made if the transition to fiscal sustainability is to be relatively smooth and the nation is to avert a long-term debt crisis.
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extremely long-winded, eggheaded and boring way to say 2 + 2 = 4

but thanks, anyway, i guess
 
USA-1 said:
And if he does end up fixing it, will you give him the credit he deserves?
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what a teeny little view you have, asking ME

LOL!

AMERICA will give him the credit for a recovery, hello, whether he deserves it or not

grow up
 
American said:
Gas Prices Are Up, But Is That A Good Thing? - cbs2chicago.com
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you scooped me!

$3.54 in chicago

fears of $4 a gallon gas on the horizon

trouble, trouble everywhere

foreclosures up 60% this year over dust-bowl like 09

an extra billion dollars for big companies just to stay in biz, not a single new hire

interest on the debt to approach a tril per year in 2017, or thereabouts

foreigners dumping our debt in record numbers

our biggest and most expensive states bankrupt by tens of bils

commercial real estate starting to corrode

new unemployment claims rose by 5% last week

and now we're looking at $4 a gallon gas

gas hikes are inflationary like crabgrass---everything america buys, just about, is delivered via truck

sure, certainly, indeed---2011 would be just an ideal time to initiate our new fiscal consolidation strategy

LOL!
 
Gas prices always go up in the spring. These prices aren't out of the ordinary yet. And Obama doesn't set gas prices. Blame the milllions of idiots who depend on driving too much and drive fatass 14 MPG SUVs.
 
blame the millions of idiots...

LOL!

you sound like obama
 
The Prof said:
blame the millions of idiots...

LOL!

you sound like obama
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Obama's never said that.

I said it though. I blame Americans for their gas price problems. Whiny, lazy Americans who drive big fat land yachts and live in McMansions 100 miles from their offices. They drive up prices for the rest of us too.

It's called personal responsibility, and it's supposed to be a conservative thing.
 
1. why would you think any of us care?

2. why are you telling me, why don't you tell it to the whiny, lazy guys in their big, fat land yachts?

3. LOL!
 
misterman said:
Gas prices always go up in the spring. These prices aren't out of the ordinary yet.
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Not as bad as 2008, but higher than any other year in recent memory. I'd call that out of the ordinary. Doubt we'll hit $4.00 (US avg) like some are speculating, but $3.50+ seems likely.
 
Taylor said:
Not as bad as 2008, but higher than any other year in recent memory. I'd call that out of the ordinary. Doubt we'll hit $4.00 (US avg) like some are speculating, but $3.50+ seems likely.
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Are they though?

I've got news for everyone - in the long run, gas prices are going to keep going up no matter what we do, who is president, how much of our own tiny supply of oil we drill, etc. As long as our thirst for oil is so high and keeps growing, that will happen. Oil is not renewable.
 
The Prof said:
the folks speculating about $4 gas are at c-b-s, the ex tiffany network

also, some at the super prestigious financial times of london, yesterday

FT.com / Commodities - Oil could give kiss of death to recovery
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Ok Dr. Wannabe-Doom

Do you have anything except for tidbits and scare tactics to post? We know relevant content is beyond your capacity, but do try to pick it up a notch. For the sake of the rest of us (due to your post volume).
 
Goldenboy219 said:
Ok Dr. Wannabe-Doom

Do you have anything except for tidbits and scare tactics to post? We know relevant content is beyond your capacity, but do try to pick it up a notch. For the sake of the rest of us (due to your post volume).
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now, there's a substantive observation---MY post volume

LOL!

hollow man lookin in a cottonfield for dignity

meanwhile, i'm too busy posting LINKS---15 on this thread

Jobless rate falls but another 20,000 jobs lost - Feb. 5, 2010

Housing market's recovery appears at risk - Boston.com

Half of U.S. Home Loan Modifications Default Again (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

AT&T to Book $1 Billion Cost on Health-Care Reform (Update3) - BusinessWeek

Verizon Joins AT&T in Booking Costs From Health-Care (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

News Headlines

New healthcare law is full of unknowns - latimes.com

Costly ER still draws many now insured - The Boston Globe

U.S. Economy: Confidence Falls to Lowest Since April (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

Foreigners cut Treasury stakes; rates could rise - Yahoo! Finance

Initial jobless claims increase unexpectedly - Yahoo! Finance

CBO chief says debt 'unsustainable' - Jonathan Allen - POLITICO.com

Gas Prices Are Up, But Is That A Good Thing? - cbs2chicago.com

FT.com / Commodities - Oil could give kiss of death to recovery

[ame=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_federal_budget]2010 United States federal budget - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]


hey, don't blame me if the news is all bad
 
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The Prof said:
...

meanwhile, i'm too busy posting LINKS---15 on this thread...

hey, don't blame me if the news is all bad
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Several quick things:

First, some of the links provide old data. The most recent Employment Report data showed net job creation of 162,000 jobs in March. The Conference Board's most recent survey of consumer confidence saw a rebound to 52.5. The overall trends in the data have shown improvement. The economy has resumed growth. The Labor Market stabilized and may be in the early stages of job growth.

Second, headwinds, particularly in the commercial real estate sector, persist. Oil prices have not risen to levels that would likely choke off economic growth.

Third, the CBO's discussion of the nation's fiscal situation concerns the longer-term. It does not point to a situation where there is an imminent threat of a debt crisis.

Finally, the IMF's forthcoming World Economic Outlook (to be released April 21) will add to the growing number of public and private reports showing a U.S. recovery. Furthermore, it could project 2010 real GDP growth of +2.5% to +3.0% for the U.S., with perhaps ~2.5% +/- 0.25% growth for 2011 (under the assumption that fiscal stimulus would be winding down, interest rates would remain low, and the financial system would continue its slow recovery).

Needless to say, there could be some wildcards e.g., an external shock that could adversely impact the U.S. economy. But right now, there is mounting evidence that a cyclical recovery is underway even as some weaknesses and headwinds persist.
 
donsutherland1 said:
Several quick things:

First, some of the links provide old data. The most recent Employment Report data showed net job creation of 162,000 jobs in March. The Conference Board's most recent survey of consumer confidence saw a rebound to 52.5. The overall trends in the data have shown improvement. The economy has resumed growth. The Labor Market stabilized and may be in the early stages of job growth.

Second, headwinds, particularly in the commercial real estate sector, persist. Oil prices have not risen to levels that would likely choke off economic growth.

Third, the CBO's discussion of the nation's fiscal situation concerns the longer-term. It does not point to a situation where there is an imminent threat of a debt crisis.

Finally, the IMF's forthcoming World Economic Outlook (to be released April 21) will add to the growing number of public and private reports showing a U.S. recovery. Furthermore, it could project 2010 real GDP growth of +2.5% to +3.0% for the U.S., with perhaps ~2.5% +/- 0.25% growth for 2011 (under the assumption that fiscal stimulus would be winding down, interest rates would remain low, and the financial system would continue its slow recovery).

Needless to say, there could be some wildcards e.g., an external shock that could adversely impact the U.S. economy. But right now, there is mounting evidence that a cyclical recovery is underway even as some weaknesses and headwinds persist.
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Not even you could possibly believe that. :roll:
 
donsutherland1 said:
First, some of the links provide old data.
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the oldest story is november, 09, the new york times piece saying that service on debt, MERE INTEREST ALONE, is soon (2016, 2017, 2018) to approach ONE TRIL per year

the gist of the lady's lament centers on her realization that the administration's projections of debt service are wildly rosey due to its assumption of unrealistically low interest rates

News Headlines

as i'm sure a person of your erudition appreciates, the admin's debt projections are also unrealistically reliant on probably unreachable gdp growth rates---3.2% in 2010, 4.0% in '11, then 4.6 and 4.2 in 2012 and '13

Economists wonder: Obama too optimistic? - Business - GMANews.TV - Official Website of GMA News and Public Affairs - Latest Philippine News

we are looking at an explosion of debt service in the in-your-face, immediate (ie, short term) future

The most recent Employment Report data showed net job creation of 162,000 jobs in March.
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more recent is the labor dept's report thursday saying first time claims rose by 18,000 for the week ending april 3

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Initial-jobless-claims-apf-355511092.html?x=0&.v=7

The Conference Board's most recent survey of consumer confidence saw a rebound to 52.5.
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that's abysmal

in february it fell to a 10 month low, and "attitudes about current conditions fell to the lowest level in 27 years"

you're pointing to a very small rebound from a near all time low

U.S. Economy: Confidence Falls to Lowest Since April (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

The Labor Market stabilized and may be in the early stages of job growth.
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maybe...

Second, headwinds, particularly in the commercial real estate sector, persist. Oil prices have not risen to levels that would likely choke off economic growth.
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they're not helping

and summer's coming

Third, the CBO's discussion of the nation's fiscal situation concerns the longer-term. It does not point to a situation where there is an imminent threat of a debt crisis.
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tell it to the governors of california, new york and at least 20 other states

as for dc, 2017 is not so far off

Finally, the IMF's forthcoming World Economic Outlook (to be released April 21) will add to the growing number of public and private reports showing a U.S. recovery.
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fine

Furthermore, it could project 2010 real GDP growth of +2.5% to +3.0% for the U.S.
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well, that would be a disaster, cuz as i linked above, the white house is counting on 3.2% for '10 just to avert those keynes-killing interest obligations

with perhaps ~2.5% +/- 0.25% growth for 2011
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this is what the grey lady and her philippino friends are talking about

obama projects 4.0% for '11

(under the assumption that fiscal stimulus would be winding down, interest rates would remain low, and the financial system would continue its slow recovery)
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ok...

Needless to say, there could be some wildcards...
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you come across as awfully cavalier about catastrophe
 
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The Prof said:
the gist of the lady's lament centers on her realization that the administration's projections of debt service are wildly rosey due to its assumption of unrealistically low interest rates
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I tend to think CBO's less optimistic idea on the budget outlook will wind up closer to what happens. But again, that has implications down the road. It is not likely to abort the young economic recovery.

as i'm sure a person of your erudition appreciates, the admin's debt projections are also unrealistically reliant on probably unreachable gdp growth rates---3.2% in 2010, 4.0% in '11, then 4.6 and 4.2 in 2012 and '13
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The 2010 figure might well be realized, especially if firms rebuild inventories a little faster than I suspect they will. I believe the 2011-2013 outlook is probably too aggressive.

more recent is the labor dept's report thursday saying first time claims rose by 18,000 for the week ending april 3
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Those numbers will continue to bounce around. However, the trend will generally be lower and it is plausible that the first < 400,000 figure could occur sometime beginning in Q3. For now, the labor market has stabilized. It may be in the early stages of a resumption of growth.

tell it to the governors of california, new york and at least 20 other states
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My comments pertain to the federal debt situation. Clearly, a number of states are facing fiscal crises. Indeed, the fiscal disasters in a number of states have demolished the myth that state and local governments were better stewards of taxpayer resources than the federal government. In doing so, the case for devolution (which can make sense from a constitutional perspective) has been badly damaged.

you come across as awfully cavalier about catastrophe
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By "wildcards," I mean relatively low probability but high impact events. Examples might include military strikes on Iran followed by Iranian retaliation against the Persian Gulf's oil infrastructure or Iran's shutting down the Strait of Hormuz; a bursting of what could be a swelling real estate bubble in China, which would have adverse global economic consequences and disrupt an important source of financing for the U.S. government; the onset of a fresh financial crisis somewhere in Eastern Europe that might produce global contagion; an unexpected spike in the price of crude oil well above $100 per barrel; some "unknown unknown," etc.
 
with all due respect, your projections and forecasts without any documentation to back them are (to me) as valuable as anybody else's

i've heard it all each a hundred times (i'm very old)

meanwhile, we know, as established thru linked articles from msm's above:

1. we're looking at a ton of foreclosures in terrible '10

2. far more than we saw in awful '09

3. our biggest and most states are bankrupt

4. we're looking at about a tril a year in interest alone in about 5 years

5. that means we're looking at a good half that, or more, in, oh, say, 3 years, maybe 2

6. long term projections of doom we all grew up with are telescoping dangerously into the immediate windshield

7. the cost of merely staying in business for giant employers like at&t has grown a billion dollars due to obamacare

8. foreigner investors are increasingly reluctant to play

9. consumer confidence is near historic lows

10. the price of oil is rising

11. unemployment claims are still rising

12. uncertainty abounds---employers, investors, consumers, congresspeople are universally confused as to exactly how all these radical changes, social and economic, are precisely gonna affect them, health care, cap and trade, wall street reg...

once more, every claim is linked above
 
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