IMO, a strategy should be adopted only after a thoughtful and rigorous process. Difficult questions should be raised and addressed.
Although there is reasonable consensus that more manpower is needed, there remains considerable disagreement concerning the aims of a new strategy and the extent of additional manpower required. A full discussion needs to examine, among other things, the
past experiences concerning Czarist, British, and Soviet forces in Afghanistan, the failure of earlier "surges" to bring about a stable outcome, and Afghanistan's historically decentralized framework in which tribal leaders/local institutions play a larger role than its central government. Additional relevant matters concern the current situation where corruption, cronyism, and incompetence in Kabul have created a de facto political vacuum in what still amounts to a failed state, the lack of institutional development that further hobbles Afghanistan's governance, and the absence of a viable economic framework that would contribute to a rising living standard.
The reality is that additional manpower alone--unless the number is overwhelming (several hundred thousand additional troops, not approximately 40,000)--will not likely bring about a rapid onset of stability. Meaningful progress on the security front will require an alignment of security, political, economic, and institutional objectives and very close coordination of those functions. Success will depend on gaining and sustaining the political support of a substantial majority of Afghanistan's people and cooperation of a majority of its tribal leaders.
Questions that need to be answered before a decision is made include:
1. Why haven't the previous troop surges proved effective?
2. Why did the military planners fail to foresee how events unfolded to date?
3. Given the above-listed shortcomings and the historic experience concering past outside forces in Afghanistan, why should one be confident that this time will be different?
4. What objective measures are currently available to show that the overwhelming majority of Afghans will support the new strategy and what are the vast majority of Afghans seeking in such a plan?
5. Who are the key tribal leaders whose efforts will be leveraged in implementing the plan and how reliable have they been in the past?
6. What local institutions will be relied upon to complement the efforts of the additional troops?
7. What can be done to rapidly build a dependable and competent Afghan security force (if that's feasible) or, if necessary, competent regional security forces to augment the security effort of a new U.S. strategy?
8. What are the five scenarios that could most compromise achieving the security efforts and what measures would be taken under such circumstances with a high probability of success of overcoming such contingencies?
9. What are the concrete measures against which progress will be evaluated, what specific goals does the plan seek to fulfill and over what timeline?
10. What resources will be required (human, financial, weapons, etc.)?
The consequences of failure are high. The stakes range from wider and greater regional instability, which could have regional political/balance of power/nuclear proliferation implications, diminished U.S. credibility, and possibly the widespread "Talibanization" of parts of central Asia.
Considering that the earlier military strategies and previous troop surges in Afghanistan did not succeed, there should be a healthy skepticism under which military planners are asked to credibly demonstrate that a new strategy really has a high prospect of success. In that context, no prospective plan or concept should receive automatic endorsement. All serious plans should be subjected to a thorough review. Difficult questions need to be raised and answered before any strategic decision is made.
During that time, attempts to exploit the current situation to gain political or partisan advantage should be avoided. Politicization can only complicate an already difficult and complex challenge. Worse, it can undermine prospects of developing a credible and effective strategy.
