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SNAP ANALYSIS-New swine flu likely widespread, experts say

The death toll is now at 81 and climbing...

Mexico flu sparks worldwide fear
Sunday, 26 April 2009 12:34 UK

Mexican authorities have taken drastic measures to contain a new strain of the swine flu virus that has killed 81 and prompted fears of a global pandemic. People are being urged to stay at home and maintain strict personal hygiene. Many schools, public buildings, bars and restaurants have been closed.

Although all of the deaths so far have been in Mexico, the flu is spreading in the United States and suspected cases have been detected elsewhere:

- Eleven confirmed infections in the US. In addition, eight suspected cases are being investigated at a New York City high school where about 200 students fell mildly ill with flu-like symptoms.

- Ten New Zealand students are among a group which travelled to Mexico have tested positive for influenza A - making it "likely", though not definite, that they are infected with swine flu, said Health Minister Tony Ryall.

- In France, a top health official told Le Parisien newspaper there were unconfirmed suspicions that two individuals who had just returned from Mexico may be carrying the virus.

- In Israel, medics are testing a 26-year-old man who has been taken to hospital with flu-like symptoms after returning from a trip to Mexico.

The Mexican government, which has faced criticism for what some see as a slow reaction to this outbreak, is now taking an increasingly hard line to try to contain the virus, says the BBC's Stephen Gibbs in Mexico City. Public buildings have been closed and hundreds of public events suspended. Schools in and around Mexico City have been closed until 6 May, and some 70% of bars and restaurants in the capital have been temporarily closed.

Mexico's Health Secretary, Jose Cordova, said a total of 1,324 people had been admitted to hospital with suspected symptoms since 13 April and were being tested for the virus. Mexico's President Felipe Calderon has announced emergency measures to deal with the situation. They include powers to isolate individuals suspected of having the virus without fear of legal repercussions.
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Source: BBC News
 
If the HN51 spreads, we are screwed. Contain it.

In France, a top health official told Le Parisien newspaper there were unconfirmed suspicions that two individuals who had just returned from Mexico may be carrying the virus.
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Okay, suspend trains o_O
 
Laila said:
If the HN51 spreads, we are screwed. Contain it.



Okay, suspend trains o_O
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Heh, I don't know if you noticed, but the containment train left the station quite some time ago.

More like, boost your immune system. There are people recovering from this, which means they have stronger immune systems.

Eat right, exercise, don't drink alcohol, sleep well, take echinacea, yadda yadda yadda, wacka wacka wacka.
 
Cardinal said:
More like, boost your immune system. There are people recovering from this, which means they have stronger immune systems.
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Lol =D

My immune system is fine ... [i hope]
I remember a few years back watching a documentary in science on what would happen if HN51 was released and spread. It showed a map of UK and London was covered in a matter of weeks. Very scary.
 
Laila said:
Lol =D

My immune system is fine ... [i hope]
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Me too on both counts. But as this virus is completely new to humans, one thing is guaranteed: every single one of us will find out just how good our immune systems really are.
 
Cardinal said:
Heh, I don't know if you noticed, but the containment train left the station quite some time ago.

More like, boost your immune system. There are people recovering from this, which means they have stronger immune systems.

Eat right, exercise, don't drink alcohol, sleep well, take echinacea, yadda yadda yadda, wacka wacka wacka.
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Well, of course that is good advice but what does it say that the fatalities have been young to middle aged people rather than the young and old?
 
Laila said:
If the HN51 spreads, we are screwed. Contain it.
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Few points of clarification:

  1. Technical quibble: the nomenclature is H5N1, not HN51.
  2. H5N1 is the Avian flu strain roaming around the Pacific rim the past few years. It has not (yet) made a broad leap to humans. It has been especially worrisome to public health officials, because where humans do contract the virus, it has a mortality rate approaching 50% (for reference, the mortality rate in Mexico City currently appears to be around 7%, and the mortality rate of the Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918-1919 has been estimated at "only" 2.5%.)
  3. The flu strain in Mexico City has been identified as H1N1. This is the same viral strain as the Spanish Influenza of 1918-1919.
  4. While the flu strain in Mexico City is referenced as "swine flu", the viral DNA sequences contain human, swine, and avian flu genetic sequences.
 
I think we turn down the alarmist thought a little bit.

Lets review some things first.

All the deaths have been reported in Mexico. A third world country were medical care and overall general health isn't all that great.

Second the MSM is going to have a field day being sensational in their reporting of the events that transpire.

Third if and or when it does spread, there is nothing you can do to avoid it for the most part. If and/or when you get sick treat as you do any other time you get the flu, lots of electrolyte rich fluids and plenty of rest.

Last but most importantly, do not take antibiotics to treat this, antibiotics only work against bacteria.

I think we will get through this just as we get through everything else.
Its seems scary but as of yet no one in the U.S. or any other first world country has died of this.
 
Harry Guerrilla said:
I think we turn down the alarmist thought a little bit.

...
Third if and or when it does spread, there is nothing you can do to avoid it for the most part. If and/or when you get sick treat as you do any other time you get the flu, lots of electrolyte rich fluids and plenty of rest.

I think we will get through this just as we get through everything else.
Its seems scary but as of yet no one in the U.S. or any other first world country has died of this.
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"Alarmist" is one thing. Being aware of a potential threat that could be quite serious is another. While, as of yet, it has not gone pandemic, there seems to be a high potential for it. I'd also note we're overdue for a pandemic and the CDC has been watching for one to begin for years.

There are things you can do to minimize your chance of catching this. Staying home during the heaviest waves of infection in your area is the best one; don't come into contact with carriers. If you must go out, wearing a surgical mask and gloves, and decon when you get home, will reduce your exposure a great deal.

The 1918-19 Swine Flu pandemic was more than a little disruptive of society and the economy; there are some pretty chilling accounts about it. Consider that our modern society is far more dependent on transportation of goods and the "on time, just in time" supply philosophy, and you can see where having enough food, meds and other supplies put away to last you a few weeks of isolation is wise.

7% fatality is not the end of the world, but it is significant. What if 7 of every 100 people you knew died? 7 of every 100 people in the nation, in the world? And not just the very young and very old, but the healthy mature population... the problems could be substantial and the after-effects lasting.

No, don't panic...but do be aware, if this goes pandemic it will probably not be simply "just another flu season, ho-hum".

G.
 
Harry Guerrilla said:
My preparations for such an event will be to buy some extra Tylenol and a couple gallons of Gatorade or Poweraid.

That is about all you can do.
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Actually Pedialyte would be better, or a supply of sea salt.

As well as green tea, ginseng/ginger root, echinacea, and cinnamon.
 
bhkad said:
Well, of course that is good advice but what does it say that the fatalities have been young to middle aged people rather than the young and old?
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I don't know. It certainly doesn't look good on the surface of it. But this is pretty new so unless a new story just came out in the last few hours that I don't know about, we don't know all the circumstances surrounding those who've recovered versus those who died. So until they find that it's actually exacerbating the flu, I'm going to go with occam's razor and keep my immune system healthy.
 
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Goshin said:
"Alarmist" is one thing. Being aware of a potential threat that could be quite serious is another. While, as of yet, it has not gone pandemic, there seems to be a high potential for it. I'd also note we're overdue for a pandemic and the CDC has been watching for one to begin for years.
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It sounds crappy to say it but I don't really flinch at it because I will be exposed to it at some point.

Virus' are sneaky lil bastards and there is not much you really can do.

Goshin said:
There are things you can do to minimize your chance of catching this. Staying home during the heaviest waves of infection in your area is the best one; don't come into contact with carriers. If you must go out, wearing a surgical mask and gloves, and decon when you get home, will reduce your exposure a great deal.
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Most of those things in the end won't be practical to my life and I will most likely be exposed to it.

Goshin said:
The 1918-19 Swine Flu pandemic was more than a little disruptive of society and the economy; there are some pretty chilling accounts about it. Consider that our modern society is far more dependent on transportation of goods and the "on time, just in time" supply philosophy, and you can see where having enough food, meds and other supplies put away to last you a few weeks of isolation is wise.
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It is possible to hold up and hope it passes but again its not practical.

Goshin said:
7% fatality is not the end of the world, but it is significant. What if 7 of every 100 people you knew died? 7 of every 100 people in the nation, in the world? And not just the very young and very old, but the healthy mature population... the problems could be substantial and the after-effects lasting.
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I don't know 100 people much less than 50. :2razz:

All I know is that its probably similar to the regular flu and that If I can beat that I'll do what I normally do to beat this one.

Goshin said:
No, don't panic...but do be aware, if this goes pandemic it will probably not be simply "just another flu season, ho-hum".

G.
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Its not another ho-hum but then again it is.

The regular flu is pandemic every year. It kills people as well.

This one will kill more people, once you get it all you can do is treat yourself in the best manner possible.
 
celticlord said:
Actually Pedialyte would be better, or a supply of sea salt.

As well as green tea, ginseng/ginger root, echinacea, and cinnamon.
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As far as I have read most of those herb things are bunk.

Pedialyte is better but I've noticed that I feel better after drinking lots of one of the "ades" than just drinking regular water.

I've got dehydrated before guzzling water when I had the flu.
 
Harry Guerrilla said:
It sounds crappy to say it but I don't really flinch at it because I will be exposed to it at some point.

...
Most of those things in the end won't be practical to my life and I will most likely be exposed to it.


It is possible to hold up and hope it passes but again its not practical.


All I know is that its probably similar to the regular flu and that If I can beat that I'll do what I normally do to beat this one.



Its not another ho-hum but then again it is.

The regular flu is pandemic every year. It kills people as well.

This one will kill more people, once you get it all you can do is treat yourself in the best manner possible.
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Your call. At this point we don't know what the fatality rate will be if it goes pandemic, we can only guess. Every individual has to balance the risk to themselves and their family vs "everyday regular life demands" and decide what is important. The 1918-19 pandemic only had about a 2.5% fatality rate and was very disruptive to socioeconomics.
If you don't think it is worth preparing or taking any precautions, then I wish you luck and hope you're right.

My point would be that even if this particular strain of H1N1 does not turn out to be a pandemic, or not a serious one, there is still H5N1 out there, and other possibilities, and the CDC has been saying for years its not if, but when, and what specific virus and characteristics, will be the next pandemic. We're already overdue, statistically.

G.
 
Swine flu: United States declares public health emergency

The United States declared a public health emergency on Sunday amid an outbreak of 20 confirmed cases of swine flu.

By Alex Spillius in Washington
Last Updated: 8:19PM BST 26 Apr 2009

The emergency declaration was "standard operating procedure," said Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano as officials said there had been 20 confirmed cases of swine flu in five US states: eight in New York, seven California, two each in Kansas and Texas, and one in Ohio.

Richard Besser of the Centre for Disease Control Prevention said "we will see more cases but we are responding aggressively".

In a hastily called briefing at the White House, officials said they were confident that reserves of antiviral drugs were adequate and reminded the public that the virus could not be contracted from eating pork.
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Swine flu: United States declares public health emergency - Telegraph
 
I'm not sure if someone said this before, but there's a reason the young and to middle-aged die in higher numbers in outbreaks such as these. Older people have had that many more years to combat infectious diseases, and they have more antibodies than young people. In fact, overall, old people suffer from infectious diseases less frequently than young. So, you geezers can rest a little easier.


Duke
 
Goshin said:
Your call. At this point we don't know what the fatality rate will be if it goes pandemic, we can only guess. Every individual has to balance the risk to themselves and their family vs "everyday regular life demands" and decide what is important. The 1918-19 pandemic only had about a 2.5% fatality rate and was very disruptive to socioeconomics.
If you don't think it is worth preparing or taking any precautions, then I wish you luck and hope you're right.

My point would be that even if this particular strain of H1N1 does not turn out to be a pandemic, or not a serious one, there is still H5N1 out there, and other possibilities, and the CDC has been saying for years its not if, but when, and what specific virus and characteristics, will be the next pandemic. We're already overdue, statistically.

G.
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I understand what your saying.

Like its been said before though, its all speculation.
I've come to the conclusion that for me to survive I will have to function around people who could have the virus and that my only real defense will be my immune system and my ability to treat myself while sick.
 
Swine flu cases now being reported in Scotland, Spain, Israel, France, UK, Mexico, Colombia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United States.

Here is a map showing cases of swine flu in each state and country.

H1N1 Swine Flu - Google Maps
 
Has anyone read The Plague?

Oh...no reason. Just wondering.


Duke
 
Mexico flu: Your experiences
Readers in Mexico have been emailing the BBC describing the sense of fear gripping the country as a result of a flu virus outbreak, which has so far claimed more than 80 lives.

I work as a resident doctor in one of the biggest hospitals in Mexico City and sadly, the situation is far from "under control". As a doctor, I realise that the media does not report the truth. Authorities distributed vaccines among all the medical personnel with no results, because two of my partners who worked in this hospital (interns) were killed by this new virus in less than six days even though they were vaccinated as all of us were. The official number of deaths is 20, nevertheless, the true number of victims are more than 200. I understand that we must avoid to panic, but telling the truth it might be better now to prevent and avoid more deaths.
Yeny Gregorio Dávila, Mexico City

I'm a specialist doctor in respiratory diseases and intensive care at the Mexican National Institute of Health. There is a severe emergency over the swine flu here. More and more patients are being admitted to the intensive care unit. Despite the heroic efforts of all staff (doctors, nurses, specialists, etc) patients continue to inevitably die. The truth is that anti-viral treatments and vaccines are not expected to have any effect, even at high doses. It is a great fear among the staff. The infection risk is very high among the doctors and health staff.

There is a sense of chaos in the other hospitals and we do not know what to do. Staff are starting to leave and many are opting to retire or apply for holidays. The truth is that mortality is even higher than what is being reported by the authorities, at least in the hospital where I work it. It is killing three to four patients daily, and it has been going on for more than three weeks. It is a shame and there is great fear here. Increasingly younger patients aged 20 to 30 years are dying before our helpless eyes and there is great sadness among health professionals here.
Antonio Chavez, Mexico City

I am a doctor and I work in the State of Mexico. I don't work in the shock team; I am in the echocardiography team, but I do get some news from my colleagues in the hospital. There have been some cases of young people dying from respiratory infections, but this happened before the alert and they were not reported because the necessary tests weren't done. We doctors knew this was happening a week before the alert was issued and were told to get vaccinated. I went to buy some anti-virals for my husband, who is also a doctor, because he had contact with a young patient who presented influenza symptoms and died. I don't think pharmacies stock enough anti-virals.

I understand the government doesn't want to generate panic, but my personal opinion is that they issued the alert too late. Still now, the population is not getting the information they need. We have been out in the street and some people are not wearing face masks and are not taking any preventive measures.
Guadalupe, Mexico City

BBC NEWS | Have Your Say | Mexico flu: Your experiences
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