considering i said "i see a surge in use" that would mean i intended it to be my opinion.
but if you can back up your assertion, or show me where you already have, i would be willing to reverse position
We cannot really look at models of legalization to support this argument. There is data that suggests heroin use has been fairly constant for the last 100 years, both prior to and after prohibition however; the methodology in collecting data and assessing data is almost certainly subject to inconsistencies over the years, we can look at current day instances of toleration, and decriminalization however.
Our best model currently is Portugal's decriminalization of drugs (including heroin, cocaine, ect). The Cato Institute conducted a study of the effects of Portugal's 8 year old decriminalization policy, unfortunately it has not been released yet, the paper will be presented at a forum at the Cato Institute on April 3rd.
The author has published the following in regards to the paper however:
Last year, working with the Cato Institute, I went to that country in order to research the effects of the decriminalization law (which applies to all substances, including cocaine and heroin) and to interview both Portuguese and EU drug policy officials and analysts (the central EU drug policy monitoring agency is, by coincidence, based in Lisbon). Evaluating the policy strictly from an empirical perspective, decriminalization has been an unquestionable success, leading to improvements in virtually every relevant category and enabling Portugal to manage drug-related problems (and drug usage rates) far better than most Western nations that continue to treat adult drug consumption as a criminal offense.
The success of drug decriminalization in Portugal - Glenn Greenwald - Salon.com
Also another
report from the Berkeley foundation (PDF) shows Portugal has shown a decrease in Heroin use since decriminalization. A snippet from the conclusion of this report:
... the adoption of decriminalization has brought definite advantages, particularly for addressing and reducing problematic drug use
The data from this report does show a decrease in Heroin use (granted marijuana use increased). Significantly, in 1999 prior to decriminalization there were 350 opiate related deaths, compared to 98 for 2003, 2 years after decriminalization.
A quick search using google and the terms "Portugal decriminalization" will provide a slew of links referencing their success with their tolerant policy.
Also the Swiss have had success in their government distribution system focusing on treatment instead of prosecution and persecution (although only hardcore addicts have access to it freely distributed heroin). The dutch, -while hard drugs are still illegal- also have had a decline in usage after tolerant policies have gone into effect.
If these experiments are an indication, a legal, but controlled distribution, coupled with education and treatment is most likely to result in a decrease of drug use, most prevalently in hard drug use. Those that do use will be able to do so in much safer conditions, and have help and access readily available to them instead of ostracism, fear of legal repercussions, and other adverse effects inherent with our current stance of demonization and zero tolerance.
99% of the population will continue to not be compelled to try heroin, cocaine, meth ect. simply because it is legalized. The 1% that do try it should have the support and ability to readily get treatment and help should their usage in fact become problematic (only 25% of people who use heroin actually become dependent). Even if an individual were to develop a problem, the inherent risks involved with appeasing their needs via a black market would be eliminated. They will be able to do satiate their addiction in a much safer environment, one with a safety net of care and treatment available without fear of repercussions if needed (via taxation of the very drugs they are abusing).
On the subject of alcohol and increased youth usage during prohibition, I had dug this up for another thread on this subject:
The Wickersham report on Alcohol Prohibition (1931)
Among the significant findings of this report were:
* Alcohol use declined during the first two or three years of Prohibition (a trend that had begun before Prohibition started) but rose every year thereafter. There was, in particular, an increase in the use of distilled liquors. There was also evidence of increased alcohol use and addiction among minors.
Major Studies of Drugs and Drug Policy - Titles and Summaries
